Bob Prechter, CMT, summed up the life of this great man in a poignant memory:
“Arthur Merrill, a pioneer of technical analysis, died on January 4, 2005 at the age of 98. I will always be grateful to Arthur for hosting my wife and me in the basement of his home for numerous hours in 1978 and 1979 while we photographed over 300 hand-prepared illustrations for our books, Elliott Wave Principle and R.N. Elliott’s Masterworks. Arthur developed the photos in his darkroom, saving us the money we didn’t have to spend on book production. He also gave me invaluable advice about the virtues of owning one’s specialty books rather than going through an established publisher, to better insure a long-term success. Arthur’s wife Elsie was always impeccably cordial. Arthur authored many small books, which he published on his own press. He investigated seasonal patterns and the Wave Principle and wrote Filtered Waves, describing a method of filtering data to cull essential market movements. An engineer by training and profession, Arthur always commanded great respect among professional technicians. His personality was immensely pleasant, and his memory will always evoke a smile.”
Previously, Bob had commented that, “Arthur’s most intriguing characteristic is his combination of open mindedness and closed mindedness. He is open minded in being willing to explore any idea which would be construed as reasonable, yet closed minded with regard to the fact that he requires statistical proof before relying on anyone’s assumptions about the effectiveness of an indicator.”
Art earned his CMT in 1989, at the age of 83. Phil Roth, CMT, as MTA president at that time signed Arthur’s CMT certificate and was honored to attend the memorial service conducted for him on January 15, 2005, in Chester Springs, PA. Phil said, “It was a wonderful service, with his daughter and two granddaughters speaking. Art was 98-1/2 years old when he passed away and, according to his grandson, still perfectly lucid even though he had suffered a stroke some weeks earlier. The family made a display of some of is memorabilia, and I am glad to say, some of his proudest possessions were his technical analysis work. His CMT certificate was prominently displayed right next to his Harvard MBA degree, granted in 1929.”
Current MTA Director Duke Jones, CMT, credits Art Merrill with being a big influence in the way he views our craft. Duke observed that, “Art was one of my favorites because to me he expressed the attributes of real genius; he was able to take a complicated matter and explain it in simple terms. He had a passion for learning that I venture never waned as it was rumored that he was working on a new book before his health deteriorated.
In my mind, Art embodied the characteristics of a true technician; he was both student and teacher. It was evident in his presentations that he truly loved the challenge of the markets and that the journey was as much fun as the destination. If you have never explored Art’s work I would suggest you put in on your reading list. I will miss his work but also he as a model of passion and curiosity.”
Finally, Bob Nurock expressed all of our feelings back in 1991 when he said, “If technical analysis is ‘an art as well as a science’ he is the Art who brought us the science.”
On the occasion of Arthur’s 85th birthday, several of his colleagues described their involvement with him, and their impressions of him. Below we reproduce the thoughts of John McGinley, CMT.
I often tell people that if Arthur Merrill doesn’t have the world’s greatest personality, he’s in the top two. In this tribute to Arthur and his work, I would be remiss not to put that first. It’s a real treat to meet him, with his impish eyes, shy smile, and eager curiosity. And he doesn’t have a judgmental word in his vocabulary. For instance, the phrase he uses for the elderly is old timers. My wife says “take a lesson!”
In all the years I’ve known him, I’ve never seen him mad; don’t know anyone who has. He told me one time he got mad; the local bank he’d used for eons told him he was depositing too many checks! In the mail order business (newsletter)? What did the man expect? Arthur took his business across the street that very minute.
Arthur had an interest in the market long before he retired after 33 years with GE. RW Schabaker’s book, the predecessor to Edwards & Magee, was his bible. He bought a used offset press and started Technical Trends in 1960 (sold the press two years ago when he moved to Haverford, PA to be near his daughter).
“He is a treasure to our profession and his career should be a beacon and example to all who follow”
John McGinley
It was not until he published his classic book, Behavior of Prices on Wall Street, that he became known, and his weekly market indicator service, Technical Trends, more than just a hobby. He tells people he retired from GE to start his newsletter and hasn’t worked a day since! He drew the charts, photographed them, developed the film, made the press masters, cut the paper and ran the press every Saturday for 27 years. He then collated, folded, stapled, stuffed and mailed the envelopes. Many was the time his wife Elsie would drive to catch the last post office truck while Arthur was in the back seat furiously stuffing envelopes.
Arthur always got up at 5 a.m. and had more work done by 9 a.m. than most of us do in a day. It paid off because his research was exhaustive. He checked every trading day back to the turn of the century for relevance, by hand! His classic, Behavior of Prices on Wall Street, was entirely calculated by hand, without even a hand calculator. Why? Because they didn’t exist! He always got his hands dirty, did it the hard way. And look at the results he uncovered: no one else had ever looked at the market data with such a microscope, in such detail.
Arthur’s healthy disregard for anecdotal evidence and Wall Street “Wisdom” led him to investigate all sorts of indicators. His pioneering approaches and novel application of solid statistical rigor to market research was at once innovative and revealing. Other than discovering the then surprising fact that Fridays were usually up and Mondays down, I once asked him what was his most surprising discovery; “the day before the holiday syndrome,” he replied.
Do it the hard way? He sat down one summer to bang into the computer the Dow Industrials hourly plus volume for twenty years! He got a tape recorder and listened to books on tape while his fingers were inputting the data. He went to the New York Public Library once to get the data on all full moons to see if there was any measurable stock market effects (he found none). At one point he punched holes into blank movie film, to simulate the Dow. When he pulled it through a gadget he built – with switches which sensed the holes – he could test an indicator against the Dow simply by running the film thru the machine.
People often wonder how he comes up with his indicators and ideas, so ingenious and unique. First, he has a steel-trap mind. Long a member of Mensa, when Intertel was started (Mensa is the top 2% of IQs, Intertel is the top 1%), they asked him if he’d like to apply. He thought it over, got out his original Mensa test from years ago and sent it in. They mailed him back a certificate immediately! (By the way, if you joined Mensa over the last 20 years or so, he probably lettered your certificate.)
Second, he takes nothing for granted. He checks everything – in detail. I often tried to suggest shortcuts, but he’d not have it. I did get him to buy his first computer (the data for his two books was compiled by hand!), a programmable calculator (a TI), and later encouraged him to get a real computer (he chose a Radio Shack because of the rapid repair they could do, which he desperately needed from time to time).
Third, he had a great curiosity and a fertile imagination as well as an innate understanding of what makes markets tick. Plus, he rules nothingout, automatically. He seems to have no biases at all. Of course, he just rolls his eyes at the Super Bowl indicator, or the “snow on the ground in Boston on Christmas” indicator.
I worked at Arthur’s feet every Saturday night from 1982 until he retired at the end of 1987 – and value every minute of it beyond measure. He’s a great researcher, a good friend, a valued teacher, has a singular personality, and been a unique pioneer in the field of technical analysis from its early days. He is a treasure to our profession and his career should be a beacon and example to all who follow.
John McGinley
One Additional Rememberance
In 1986 Art Merrill gave me a copy of his book, Remembering Names – a perfect gift to someone who could never remember anyone’s name.
I have always cherished this little book and especially the wonderful inscription inside – note the little hearts.
Thank you, Art.
Barbara Gomperts
