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Charles H. Dow Award

In 1994 the CMT Association established the Charles H. Dow award to highlight outstanding research in technical analysis. The Award has received over 160 submissions, and recognized 23 papers for their excellence. Of the more than two dozen authors/coauthors who have won, eight have gone on to publish books based on their submissions to the Charles H. Dow Award. Winners have presented at the CMT Association’s Annual Symposium, local chapter meetings, and participated in CMT Association podcasts and/or educational web-series. The Award carries a prize of $5,000 and is presented at the CMT Association’s Annual Symposium held in New York City each April.

The competition is open to all practitioners and academics. The submission will be judged based on its ability to enhance the understanding of market action, the concepts of technical analysis, and thorough research. Additional information on the Standards of Judgment, included within the Guidelines for Submissions.

For more information on the Charles H. Dow Award, please contact DowAward@cmtassociation.org.

Submissions for the 2024 Dow Award will open on August 1, 2023 and remain open until December 12023; however, we accept research for publication in the Journal of Technical Analysis on a rolling basis year-round

2023 Charles H. Dow Award Winner

Congratulations to Andrew Thrasher, CMT for his winning research, “The 5% Canary”

Methodology: To examine the potential predictive value of the time it takes for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to decline by 5% from a 52-week high, a study of their respective price histories from 1950 to 2021 was conducted. The study focused on the number of trading days it took for the indices to decline by 5%, and how that time period correlated with subsequent price movements. The study also looked at instances where the initial 5% decline occurred over a protracted period of time, and how those instances were followed by bullish opportunities.

Implications of a 5% Decline: The study found that when the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 5% within a short period of time (less than 20 trading days), there was a higher likelihood of further downside momentum. In these instances, investors may consider reducing their equity exposure or implementing risk management protocols to protect their portfolios.

Bullish Opportunities: However, the study also found that when the initial 5% decline occurred over a protracted period of time (more than 50 trading days), there was a higher likelihood of a bullish opportunity. In these instances, investors may consider adding to their equity exposure or implementing a buy protocol to capture potential upside.

Conclusion: The time it takes for the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average to decline by 5% from a 52-week high has significant implications for investors. The speed at which the decline occurs can help investors identify both downside mitigation as well as upside capture potential.

The 5 Percent Canary by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

Past Award Winners