So, the Russian invasion of Ukraine moved oil and how!
The move into the 135 area was short-lived and since the day of the early March top, Brent prices have been volatile but the churn has been inside of a large range, defined by the initial drop from 135 to 90. From an Elliott wave perspective, both bull and bear themes are currently active, but a resolution should come sooner than later.
So, although there are other, alternate counts, am looking at the preferred and the first alternate for now. As per the preferred bearish count, Brent should hold the prior swing high of 114.84 and roll over in a 5-wave decline on a lower time frame, which will reinforce the bear view. This count assumes that after the circled w3 top at 135, the initial decline was w(a) and the entire consolidation since then is a supposed w(b), valid as long as 114.84 holds. So, if this count is what’s actually panning out, prices should hold 114.84 and start an impulsive decline that should atleast take out the wA low of 98. In the longer term, since an impulse cannot see w4 enter w1 territory, the circled w4 bottom should hold above the circled w1 high of 86.69 — a failure to do this will negate the entire impulse as currently labelled.
What if Brent rallies above 114.84? Well, in that case, the w(b) bearish triangle count will be busted and I shall elevate the alternate to preferred status. As per this, circled w4 would have been assumed to have ended at the late April lows of 100.28. The next move up has been labelled as a 1,2 where w(2) am assuming is a flat. This is not my current best count but like I have said before, it will become that once 114.84 is broken.
The good thing about churns is that they end and we are ever closer to getting a breakout that will clear the air once and for all on whether all time highs are coming now or later.