Market Insights
CMT Association’s Market Insights features timely technical analysis of current global markets by veteran CMT charterholders. Each post appears on www.tradingview.com/u/CMT_Association/ in an effort to explain process, tools, and the responsible practice of technical analysis.
Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
June 18, 2024
Conclusion: In early 2024 gold reached the price objective derived from the breakout of the large triangle that had evolved…
May 22, 2024
This piece was meant to focus on the number of major equity indices that are near all time highs, or…April 15, 2024
Conclusion: FXI has reached a potential inflection point. The outcome of the current technical setup is likely to define the…
March 22, 2024
In our last piece, we presented a long term/secular outlook for intermediate-term Treasuries, where we concluded that the structural break…March 21, 2024
Ten Year Yields: Potential Outcomes United States 10 Year Government Bonds Yield TVC:US10Y CMT_Association This is the yearly perspective Ten-year…
February 22, 2024
I begin each year by reviewing the long-term technical positions and behaviors of what I think of as the "Big…
January 22, 2024
To Recap: In parts one and two we used MACD monthly perspective momentum across a large number of tradable assets…January 8, 2024
In the first four installments we described an exercise utilizing the momentum in asset classes, the relationship between those classes…December 19, 2023
In the first three installments we described an exercise utilizing the long term momentum in asset classes, the relationship between…December 4, 2023
Last year I produced several posts that described an exercise that utilizes long term momentum changes between asset classes and…
CMT Association’s Market Insights features timely technical analysis of current global markets by veteran CMT charterholders. Each post appears on www.tradingview.com/u/CMT_Association/(opens in a new tab) in an effort to explain process, tools, and the responsible practice of technical analysis.
Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
June 18, 2024
Gold Top? Potential Price Objectives
Conclusion: In early 2024 gold reached the price objective derived from the breakout of the large triangle that had evolved…
May 22, 2024
Signal & Noise: Macro Tests: Italy, Japan, India
This piece was meant to focus on the number of major equity indices that are near all time highs, or…
April 15, 2024
Potential China Inflection: FXI ETF:
Conclusion: FXI has reached a potential inflection point. The outcome of the current technical setup is likely to define the…
March 22, 2024
Ten Year Treasury Outlook Part Two:
In our last piece, we presented a long term/secular outlook for intermediate-term Treasuries, where we concluded that the structural break…
March 21, 2024
Ten Year Yields: Potential Outcomes
Ten Year Yields: Potential Outcomes United States 10 Year Government Bonds Yield TVC:US10Y CMT_Association This is the yearly perspective Ten-year…
February 22, 2024
10-Year Treasury Rates: A Monthly/Secular Perspective Overview
I begin each year by reviewing the long-term technical positions and behaviors of what I think of as the "Big…
January 22, 2024
Business Cycle Rotation Part 6: Conclusions
To Recap: In parts one and two we used MACD monthly perspective momentum across a large number of tradable assets…
January 8, 2024
Business Cycle Rotation Part 5
In the first four installments we described an exercise utilizing the momentum in asset classes, the relationship between those classes…
December 19, 2023
Business Cycle Rotation Part 4
In the first three installments we described an exercise utilizing the long term momentum in asset classes, the relationship between…
December 4, 2023
Business Cycle Rotation Part 3
Last year I produced several posts that described an exercise that utilizes long term momentum changes between asset classes and…
November 20, 2023
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum 2
Last year I produced several posts that described an exercise that utilizes long term momentum changes between asset classes and…
November 6, 2023
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum SPDR Select Sector Fund - Industrial BATS:XLI CMT_Association Last year I produced…
November 6, 2023
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum by CMT_Association on TradingView.com Last year I produced several posts that described…
October 24, 2023
Introduction to Relative Strength Part 3
CMT Association's Market Insights features timely technical analysis of current global markets by veteran CMT charterholders. Each post appears on…
October 9, 2023
Introduction to Relative Strength or Ratio 1-2
Introduction to Relative Strength or Ratio 1-2 LQD/HYG BATS:LQD/BATS:HYG CMT_Association In part one (linked) we discussed how to construct and…
October 9, 2023
Introduction to Relative Strength or Ratio 1-2
In part one we discussed how to construct and use relative strength ratios (RS) in trading and analysis. We also…
September 22, 2023
Introduction to Relative Strength or Ratio 1-1
Introduction to Relative Strength or Ratio 1-1 XLP/XLY BATS:XLP/BATS:XLY CMT_Association This is part one of a series on relative strength…
September 8, 2023
Reversal Bars: Springs and Upthrusts: 4-2
Reversal Bars: Springs and Upthrusts: 4-2 United States 10 Year Government Bonds Yield TVC:US10Y CMT_Association In part one (4-1, linked)…
August 21, 2023
Reversal Bars Part 4-1: Springs and Upthrust
Reversal Bars Part 4-1: Springs and Upthrust by CMT_Association on TradingView.com Spring and Upthrust: In the first three parts of…
July 24, 2023
Reversal Bar Patterns Part 3: Buying and Selling Climaxes
Reversal Bar Patterns Part 3: Buying and Selling Climaxes by CMT_Association on TradingView.com In parts one and two (linked) we…
June 29, 2023
Introduction To Reversal Bar Patterns: Part 2
Introduction to Reversal Bar Patterns: Part 2: by CMT_Association on TradingView.com In part one we discussed the basics of reversal…
May 30, 2023
Introduction to Reversal Bar Patterns: Part 1:
Introduction to Reversal Bar Patterns: Part 1: by CMT_Association on TradingView.com Over the next few posts, we plan on reviewing…
May 22, 2023
Anatomy of a Top – Seven Questions for Selling Discipline
Anatomy of a Top – Seven Questions for Selling Discipline by CMT_Association on TradingView.com The equity market may be presenting a somewhat ambiguous and…
March 26, 2023
Banking Sector: Part 2: JPM
Trend Analysis Chart Patterns Technical indicators JPM Last week we looked at the banks through the lens of relative strength…
March 20, 2023
10:03 AM Banking Sector: Regional Banks Verses Large Banks
I have always believed that it is difficult for broad equity to do well if banks are struggling. Credit makes…
March 5, 2023
Big Four: 2023 Macro Conclusions
I begin each year with a macro assessment of what I refer to as the big four markets: Bonds, Equities,…
February 27, 2023
Big Four Macro Update: Commodities
Trend Analysis - Chart Patterns - Technical Indicators There are extensive fundamental comments, context, and observations in the prior commodities…
February 21, 2023
Big Four Macro Overview: Dollar Index
Trend Analysis Chart Patterns Technical Indicators There are extensive fundamental comments, context, and observations in the two DXY pieces written…
February 13, 2023
Big Four Macro: Equities Part 2: Weekly and Daily
Trend Analysis - Chart Patterns - Technical Indicators Early 2022 was characterized by a sharp 27% decline in SPX , 38% in…
February 6, 2023
Big Four Macro Overview: Equities
- Trend Analysis - Chart Patterns - Technical Indicators - SPX Monthly Log Scale: Despite last years 28% decline, the defining uptrends…
January 29, 2023
All Declines Are Not Equal
It is pertinent to remember that there are always stocks to sell into rising markets and stocks to buy into…
January 22, 2023
Big Four Macro: Bonds Part 2
In last week’s macro outlook post we covered the outlook for intermediate and long bond yields. The analysis concluded that…
January 16, 2023
Big Four Macro Outlook: 10 Year Rates
Big Four Macro Outlook: 10 Year Rates United States 10 Year Government Bonds Yield TVC:US10Y CMT_Association I begin each year…
January 9, 2023
Micro Drift Patterns
Micro Drift Patterns United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield TVC:US30Y CMT_Association One of the more powerful but under-appreciated categories…
January 3, 2023
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum 5
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum 5 SPDR Select Sector Fund - Industrial AMEX:XLI CMT_Association Visualizing Business and…
December 19, 2022
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum 4
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum 4 Leading Indicators OECD: Leading indicators: CLI: Normalised for the United States…
December 12, 2022
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum 3
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum 3 S&P 500 SP:SPX CMT_Association In parts 1 and 2 we discussed…
December 4, 2022
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Momentum: 2
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Momentum: 2 S&P GSCI SP:SPGSCI CMT_Association In part one, we discussed using a market…
November 28, 2022
Visualizing Business/Market Cycles Through Market Momentum: 1
Visualizing Business/Market Cycles Through Market Momentum: 1 SPDR Select Sector Fund - Industrial AMEX:XLI CMT_Association Visualizing Business and Market Cycles…
November 21, 2022
Corporate Credit Conditions: Part 4
Corporate Credit Conditions: Part 4 ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2EY CMT_Association In part 4 we look…
November 14, 2022
Corporate Credit Conditions: Part 3
Corporate Credit Conditions: Part 3 BAMLH0A0HYM2-BAMLC0A0CM FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2-FRED:BAMLC0A0CM CMT_Association As discussed in part two (prior installments linked below), the duration mismatch…
November 7, 2022
Credit Conditions and the Fed: Part 2
Credit Conditions and the Fed: Part 2 ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2 CMT_Association In part 2…
November 2, 2022
Corporate Credit Conditions Part 1
Corporate Credit Conditions Part 1 ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread FRED:BAMLC0A0CM CMT_Association Since credit has far greater potential…
October 24, 2022
Trendline and Channel Tutorial: Part 4
Trendline and Channel Tutorial: Part 4 S&P 500 SP:SPX CMT_Association All traders are different but I personally find it difficult…
October 17, 2022
Trendlines and Channels Tutorial: Part 3
Trendlines and Channels Tutorial: Part 3 United States 10 Year Government Bonds Yield TVC:US10Y CMT_Association Before we get started on…
October 9, 2022
All Advances Are Not Equal Within an Overall Bear Market Rally
All Advances Are Not Equal Within an Overall Bear Market Rally S&P 500 SP:SPX CMT_Association In the frustrating attempts to…
October 3, 2022
Trendline and Channel Tutorial: Part 2
Trendline and Channel Tutorial: Part 2 BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT) CBOT:AW1! CMT_Association In part 2…
September 26, 2022
Trendlines & Channels Tutorial: Part 1
Trendlines & Channels Tutorial: Part 1 S&P 500 SP:SPX CMT_Association This will be a multi part series on trendlines and…
September 12, 2022
Equity Seasonality and Bear Market Sector and Stock Selection
Equity Seasonality and Bear Market Sector and Stock Selection AbbVie Inc. NYSE:ABBV CMT_Association Seasonalities are regular and predictable patterns that…
September 6, 2022
FXI: China Large Cap ETF Critical Juncture
FXI: China Large Cap ETF Critical Juncture iShares China Large-Cap ETF AMEX:FXI CMT_Association Even in retirement I scour hundreds of…