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Akshay Chinchalkar, CMT

Akshay Chinchalkar, CMT

Akshay Chinchalkar is the South Asia Head for Technicals and Quantitative Analysis at Bloomberg South Asia and a Global Board Member of the CMT Association. His career spans 15 years in the financial markets, cutting across Equity Derivatives, Commodities and FX structuring. At Bloomberg, he is primarily responsible for working closely with the Sales, Product and Business Intelligence teams at the firm to help drive terminal and enterprise related conversations across corporations.

Akshay is a Chartered Market Technician, a CFA L1 and FRM L2 candidate and a postgraduate of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

 

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            [post_content] => The only hope from May was that it gives us some direction. Well, we can say this was partially fulfilled!  

When you think about it, the market is quite a dramatic character. It strikes when least expected, it sleeps when most anticipated, and does plain and simple nothing when everything is predicted. True to its dramatic reputation, the market came through with a breakout over the last two days of the month. While we got this confirmation on the domestic front, we’re still looking for some signals on the global front.  

A sideways market can be quite frustrating. It's a difficult environment to trade in and it's easy to throw in the towel. But look a little closer and you’ll realize there are more lessons here than in a secular bull/bear market!  

What have I learned in my time following the market? Among many lessons, here is my favourite:  

Patience is a virtue, but complacence is a vice!   

Take for instance all the risk-on metrics that have been rallying since last year. It was easy because defensive segments like the DXY, Bonds, and Gold just didn’t present an opportunity to load up on them! What did we see over the past two months though? The defensives stopped making lower highs and lower lows. There are now higher lows on some key combinations. What does that tell us? It tells us that there is more to stock picking now than there has been for months now!   

Now is the time when the analysts who truly follow their signals and strategies will get through the storm! Buying Copper and staying put will not help if Gold is outperforming Copper. Buying the Auto sector and relaxing will not yield better results if Energy is outperforming Auto. Not setting risk management levels in tandem with the volatility of cryptocurrencies will most certainly not help your portfolio value. These are trends that will play out as and when a market matures and progresses. And it is more important to be aware of these developments if you’d like to stay ahead of the curve.  

In this month’s issue, we bring to you write-ups on novel methods of Index target calculations, Hurst’s Time cycles, RSI generated long-term buy signals and sector-specific analysis. We also have a special contribution from one of our international members, analyzing Bitcoin.   

So, what should we ask of June, then?   

How about 22 days of trading? Seems quite reasonable, don’t you think?   

Now for some news. This will be final edition of Technical Insights. We’ve had 10 glorious months of technical studies and brilliant insights (it's in the name, I had to do this!). I hope that in some way or the other, we have been able to help you gain a new perspective or understanding of the market. To say that it was an honour being the Editor of this Newsletter is an understatement! I didn’t know what I was getting into, but it was a beautiful journey of finding my voice and my way. I have had the opportunity to interact with the best Technicians and learn from them. I have gained the experience of managing a Monthly Newsletter, a dream I had when I was a media student. There have been several learnings and successes along the way, and it has been possible only because of you, our dear readers! Thank you for your feedback and encouragement, it is what made us pump out content every month!  

Travel hasn’t resumed yet, but our Newsletter can certainly go places. Well, we're going international! Technical Insights will be merged with Technically Speaking to form one global entityWe're working on the transition as you’re reading this. So, in technical terms, we’re consolidating at all-time highs, and the indicators suggest that there’s another breakout coming!  

We will meet again, soon enough. But until then, Think Technical!   

Rashmi Shastry, CMT 

Editor 
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            [post_content] => Hello Readers!

What a great beginning we’ve had to 2021! The stock market has become the most popular kid in class, and the events that unfolded over the last month have done more than enough to draw extra attention and eyeballs to our star performer.

It’s a fascinating world where although similar patterns repeat or rhyme across different time frames, there are certain events that manage to throw a surprise party for all the participants and bystanders. Regardless of your relationship with the market, you now probably have a decent idea about what a “short squeeze” is and what GME, AMC and BB stand for; or at least know why they've been in the news.

The beauty of being a part of this field is that while human nature means that predictable patterns can be tracked during different phases of a market cycle, the unpredictability of an independent thinking brain has the power to challenge established ideas and perceptions. These challenges offer valuable golden lessons if you’re one who looks to learn from just about anything and everything that unravels/unfolds around you. While I have my list of lessons that I’ve learnt from such events, I’d like to hear what your biggest takeaways were.

We’ve all heard the phrase “Survival of the Fittest” and the market is a living embodiment of this saying since market participants revise this concept over and over again across different time frames. If the market was an Immigration Officer and you were going to the US (participating in the market), you will not be left alone unless you answer the most important question: What is the purpose of your visit? Once you figure out what the answer to this question is, your relationship with the market becomes amicable. It becomes easier to gauge the sentiment and direction of a given move when the purpose is clear.

This edition presents a couple of perceptions about the US Dollar outlook, an informative round-up of Nifty50, a short introduction to understanding Relative Strength Charts and a very important lesson on how the Markets Discount Everything!

If you have any questions or anything in particular you’d like to read about in the upcoming editions, do reach out to us.

 

Until next time, think Technically!

 

Rashmi Shastry, CMT
Editor
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            [post_content] => Hello readers! Welcome to the first edition of the CMT India Newsletter – Technical Insights.

Necessity is the mother of invention.

Introspection is the mother of reinvention.

So we reinvented our approach towards Life, as we knew it. What was once a scene out of a sci-fi movie, now became our reality; as countries across the globe went into lockdown to limit the impact of Covid-19.

Cut to two quarters later, and survival is the only mantra. In the spirit of survival, we decided to regroup and provide market participants with high quality insights to help them navigate the risks inherent to markets these days. We were sitting on a gold mine of technical analysis talent and we resolved to make the most of our resources.

The market has taken us on a roller-coaster ride over the past six months and the need for quality analysis is more telling than ever before. To help participants understand how various aspects of their markets are interlinked, we called upon our experienced charter holders to share perspectives that could help you in treading unexplored vistas. The idea is not only to introduce readers to the body of knowledge of Technical Analysis, but to also familiarize them with its heartbeat. Informed market participants know how to make their money work for them.

Whether we are ‘working from home’ or ‘staying at work’, here’s a newsletter focused on technical analysis that will give you insights on application of concepts, and strategies.

When big families have a meal, a buffet makes more sense than à la carte. So, when the CMT family came together we decided to present a buffet of information - something for everyone. The sections that will form a part of the newsletter are:

If there is any other topic that you wish to see here, contact us and we will do our best to incorporate your suggestions.

This is the beginning of an exciting new journey and we are overjoyed to share this with you!

To all the volunteers, members, charter holders, the CMT Head Office in New York, and the leader of the pack – the India Office Head, Joel Pannikot: Thank you for making this dream a reality.

Rashmi Shastry, CMT

Editor

 

Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information purposes only. None of the content here is to be construed as investment advice or recommendations. The views and opinions expressed by each author is their own.
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