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[post_title] => Technically Speaking, May/June 2016
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[post_content] => LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This month’s magazine is focused on actionable ideas for traders. After reading this issue of Technically Speaking, you will have specific ideas for designing a lon-g or short-term trading strategy or advancing your career potential as an investment manager. We’ve also included an article that demonstrates the value of investment skill by reviewing how Berkshire Hathaway performed before Warren Buffett became involved in the company.
In addition to Technically Speaking, the MTA provides actionable ideas at chapter meetings and at the Annual Symposium. It’s time for many of us to start planning for that meeting which will kick off on April 6, 2015 and run through April 8. It will be held in New York City. You can learn more here.
You will also obtain actionable ideas at local chapter meetings. You may have noticed the word “will” in that previous sentence. It jumps out because as investment professionals, we often hedge our statements with phrases including “is likely to” or words like “could.” I am confident you will be exposed to new ideas at MTA chapter meetings and broke with tradition to make an unequivocal prediction. If you haven’t been to a chapter meeting, check for local events by clicking here.
Finally, feel free to share your own actionable ideas with readers of Technically Speaking. Please let us know what you’d like to see in Technically Speaking this year by emailing us at editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, January 2016
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[post_date] => 2015-09-15 12:00:53
[post_date_gmt] => 2015-09-15 16:00:53
[post_content] => LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This month’s issue of the magazine is the sixth month in a row we are featuring content from the Annual Symposium. That meeting lasts just a few days but it truly does provide months worth of ideas for attendees. Planning is underway for the 2016 Symposium and each year is always better than the previous year. It’s not too early to start making plans to attend. This month’s magazine also includes examples of the latest research into technical analysis and historical perspectives of the field. As always, we hope you find actionable ideas in each issue. Remember, submissions for the 2016 Charles H. Dow Award are now being accepted. More details are available by clicking here. Submissions for other awards, including the MTA Annual Award and the Memorial Award, will also be accepted soon. If you know of someone who should be recognized with one of the MTA’s awards, now is the time to plan their nomination. You can always provide feedback on Technically Speaking by emailing us at editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2015
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[post_date] => 2015-08-15 12:00:42
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[post_content] => LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
Just four months after the winner of the 2015 Charles H. Dow Award was recognized it’s time to plan for the 2016 Award. This month we are announcing the deadlines for the Award. Although there are several months before papers are due, planning and writing the papers is a large undertaking. We hope many of you will begin that pursuit. This month’s newsletter also includes an admission by one of Wall Street’s most-respected strategists that technical analysis is an important component of his work. Byron Wien, a name familiar to many readers, credits technical analysis with turning his career around. We also have research on market liquidity, a growing concern especially in the fixed income markets. Liquidity is a major factor in supply and technical analysis is dedicated to the study of supply and demand. Changes in market structure could make price action more volatile. As this article highlights, we have already seen several liquidity-related market events and are likely to see more. The potential implications of liquidity changes are important to technicians and we hope you’ll find this research to be useful. Please let us know which areas of research interest you by emailing us at editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, August 2015
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[post_date] => 2015-07-15 12:00:47
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[post_content] => LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
At the Annual Symposium in March, Jason DeSena Trennert explained why he was bullish. He summed it up as “TINA” or “there is no alternative.” Months later, his presentation is just as timely. Large investors running pension funds or insurance companies understand stocks are expensive but they are faced with the reality that there is no alternative. This month’s newsletter includes a summary of that presentation and demonstrates the value of the Symposium. Presentations like Jason’s are both timely and timeless. As your schedule permits, I urge you to remember that videos of this year’s presentations and the previous four years are available at http://symposium.mta.org/ and can be viewed at anytime. Dr. Bryan Taylor also presents timely and timeless information. Using data going back nearly 200 years, Bryan demonstrates history is repeating in Greece. The fact that history repeats is one of the basic precepts of technical analysis. We can be certain history will repeat in the future which is why technical analysis will continue to add value to the investment decision
process. This value is being demonstrated by academic research as we explain in this issue. We also explain how the value of technical analysis is driving changes in the careers of technicians and these changes resulted in an update to the CMT program. As always, we welcome your feedback. Please let us know what you think of Technically Speaking, the MTA magazine, by emailing us at editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2015
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[post_date] => 2015-06-15 12:00:49
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[post_content] => LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
Technical analysis has always been focused on the application of knowledge. In the early editions of Edwards and Magee’s Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, they focused on how to trade chart patterns. But these pioneers of the field also included a theory explaining why the pattern should work. While applying the ideas of technical analysis is still the important consideration to practitioners, many academic researchers are working to uncover why the techniques work. In this month’s newsletter, we provide articles highlighting both the application of technical analysis and the research that technical analysis is stimulating in the academic community. This month’s newsletter also includes a summary of Tom Dorsey’s presentation at the Annual Symposium. The Symposium truly does provide a year’s worth of ideas and we will be presenting summaries of those ideas in the months ahead. Videos of this year’s presentations and the previous four years are available at http://symposium.mta.org/ and can be viewed at anytime.
As always, we welcome your feedback. Please let us know what you think of Technically Speaking, the MTA magazine, by emailing us at editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, June 2015
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[post_date] => 2015-05-15 12:00:41
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[post_content] => LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
Ethics is the lead story in this month’s magazine. The MTA is adopting a large body of knowledge related to all areas of finance through a licensing agreement with the CFA Institute. All finance professionals, whether they analyze fundamental, quantitative or technical data, share common goals (finding profitable opportunities) and share a common operating environment. Given all of the commonalities, it’s not surprising we share the same ethical requirements.
This new body of knowledge will not require members of the MTA to change anything they do professionally. The original MTA Code of Ethics was comprehensive and covered all of the important standards of professional behavior. The shortcoming was a lack of case studies and examples of how to apply the Code. This licensing agreement makes all of the CFAI’s Code and Standards developed over several decades available to MTA members.
For CMT candidates, this licensing agreement provides clear readings which will make studying for the exam a more efficient process.
In short, there are no changes required of MTA members to meet the requirements of the new Code and Standards. One benefit is that there are now examples of how to apply ethics in everyday situations. Another benefit is the clear material that CMT candidates will have to study ethics so that there will be no surprises on the exam related to ethics. In short, we have found a risk-free opportunity to partner with the CFA Institute and we are excited to begin the next stage of the MTA’s growth.
We also have articles related to the tools technicians use to analyze the markets and the techniques they apply to find profitable trading opportunities. As always, we welcome your feedback on what you would like to see in future issues of Technically Speaking. Please let us know by emailing us at editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2015
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[post_date] => 2015-04-15 12:00:33
[post_date_gmt] => 2015-04-15 16:00:33
[post_content] => LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
Once a year, the MTA Symposium assembles a lineup of great speakers yet some of the best technicians attending are in the audience. Symposiums have long been one of the most valuable of MTA membership and now technology makes it possible to extend that benefit to all members. Videos of the presentations will soon be available on line. Discussion forums on the MTA web site allow members to exchange ideas about the presentations or any other topic of interest. In this month’s Technically Speaking we try to start the conversation about speakers with an article featuring the wisdom of a few presenters.
This month’s newsletter also highlights the fact that chapter meetings offer another way for members to hear from great speakers. Leslie Jouflas, CMT, shares insights from Market Wizard Ed Seykota’s recent presentation in Washington.
We also have new ideas about how to apply the principles of technical analysis in this issue and we’d like to hear from you about how you apply those principles. If you have ideas for articles in upcoming issues of the newsletter, please send me a note at editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, April 2015
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[post_date] => 2015-03-15 12:00:16
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[post_content] => LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
The MTA recently announced this year’s award winners:
- Walter Deemer – Annual Award
- Frederic Dickson – Memorial Award
- Brad Herndon – Service Award
- Stanley Dash – Recognition Award
- Amber Hestla-Barnhart – Charles H. Dow Award
In this month’s newsletter we provide more insight into why Walt Deemer and Amber Hestla-Barnhart were honored. Walt is a true legend in the analysis community and the short articles we offer provide a small glimpse of his work. Amber shares details about the process she followed to win the prestigious Charles H. Dow Award in the hope of encouraging more submissions to next year’s competition.
We will have more details on the honorees in next month’s newsletter.
Later this month, hundreds of MTA members will spend time together at the Annual Symposium. Attendees will spend time hearing the thoughts of extraordinary market analysts in formal presentations and in informal settings that are an equally important part of the Symposium. I hope I will get to meet everyone attending the Symposium but the odds of that are low because the Symposium only lasts two days. If you will be attending and have ideas on how we can improve Technically Speaking, please send me a note at editor@mta.org so I can get your feedback in person.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, March 2015
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[post_date] => 2015-02-15 12:00:44
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[post_content] =>
LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This year marks the 42nd anniversary of the MTA. We tend to ignore anniversary years unless they end in 0 or 5 but each year is important to the organization. Each of the past 42 years has presented the MTA with opportunities for growth along with occasional challenges that have to be met. The fact that we are now nearly 42 years old as an organization is a tribute to the volunteers who have led the MTA.
Most of us rarely think about the leadership of the MTA. That fact indicates that they are doing an outstanding job because we tend to worry only about major problems. No major problems means no worries about the MTA.
This month, I’d like to join Dave Keller, CMT, and Past President of the MTA in asking you to think about our organization’s leadership. In particular, as Dave notes, it’s time to nominate individuals to serve on the Board of Directors. Individuals in these positions will help set the pace for growth in the next 42 years. If you know of the right person to meet that responsibility, please nominate them. Getting the best people involved in the MTA has allowed most of us to ignore the problems that the Board solves effortlessly while keeping us on the right path.
Please submit your recommendations to nominations@mta.org and help us to continue growing the MTA.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, February 2015
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[post_content] =>
LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
Many publications are dedicating January issues to a look at the year that was or a forecast for the year that is to be. We decided to ignore time and in this issue of Technically Speaking we review timeless techniques.
Gaps, for example, have been a part of charts for hundreds of years and will always be visible on charts. This month, we review the Dow Award-winning paper written by Julie R. Dahlquist, PH.D., CMT and Richard J. Bauer, JR., PH.D., that explains how to trade gaps.
Relative strength (RS) is also a technique that has worked for decades and is likely to continue providing useful trade signals in the future. John Lewis, CMT, from Dorsey Wright & Associates, expands on how RS can be applied to generate profits. Looking a little bit ahead, Tom Dorsey, co-founder of Dorsey Wright & Associates, will have more insights into successful strategies at the MTA Symposium in March.
Bloomberg recently highlighted a useful application of the relative strength index (RSI) in Bloomberg Briefs and a summary of that information is presented here. Andrew Thrasher, CMT, then explains how copper has been replaced by semis in the modern economy as a stock market indicator.
While trend lines have been useful in the past and will be useful in the future, Greg Schnell, CMT, demonstrates that they can be applied incorrectly. In an article that does provide a specific forecast for 2015, Mark Ungewitter uses timeless techniques like the Dow/Gold ratio, cycles, market breadth and the Coppock Curve to look at the stock market.
Although we try to provide articles that will interest everyone, if we aren’t featuring a topic you find interesting, please let us know what you’d like to see more of by emailing us at editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, January 2015
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[post_content] =>
LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
In this month’s issue, we are confident we have something for everyone. Charlie Kirkpatrick, CMT, the only person to have written two Dow Award winning papers, explains an indicator he calls “the forward line.” In the first two articles of this issue, he explains the theory at the heart of the forward line, details the calculation of the indicator and demonstrates how to apply it to trading.
In this month’s member interview, Anthony Abry explains his work and identifies position sizing and Commitment of Traders (COT) data as potential areas for further study. To help start your study, we turned to Ralph Vince who was the first to detail the theory of position sizing and John Kosar, CMT, who is one of the most innovative analysts working with
COT data. We include some recent research from John and then added a chart showing how the market actually performed after John made his realtime market call. We conclude this issue with an article about market geometry by Scott Hathaway. Scott has been working on new geometric techniques, in some ways picking up where and Gann and Elliott left off.
Please let us know what topics you’d like to see covered in future issues by emailing us at editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2014
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[post_content] =>
Letter From The Editor
Many readers already know that Fred Dickson, CMT, passed away at the end of October. In this issue, we look at an example of his work. It is an amazing example of clarity and focus and provides an example of how to turn ideas into actions. Fred dedicated much of his life to helping others turn ideas into actions.
As with most great individuals, outstanding professional accomplishments are just one small part of their life. Gail Dudack, CMT, notes, "Fred was probably the smartest and most gentile person i have known. And while he had a great reputation on Wall Street and CNBC, his true passion was counseling people who needed help and he did this for decades as deacon of his church. He was always there if you needed him. But his greatest passion was his harem: wife Linda, daughters Kathy and Barbara."
Fred also played a significant role in turning the ideas of technical analysis into a respected profession. It is impossible to overstate the impact Fred had on the MTA. He became a member in September 1978 and served as president from 1983 tom 1984. Fred earned his CMT designation in April 1991.
Ralph Acampora, CMT, credits Fred with kick starting the CMT program. Ralph noted that Fred personally wrote the first 300 questions for the exam. Ralph also recalled that there was a period of time when the MTA Library was homeless and Fred stepped in to keep the library functioning. Along with his wife, Linda, Fred moved the books to his garage and made them available to members while the MTA looked for a new home.
In all likelihood, Fred would prefer that we take inspiration from his life rather than isolated memories. Even if never had the opportunity to meet Fred, consider Gail Dudack's comments as a summary of his personality and consider Ralph's recollections as a summary of his commitment to his profession. We can all find inspiration in his life and acting on those inspirations would be the legacy Fred would desire and deserves.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2014
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
We have a variety of articles for you to consider this month. We start with a look back. Many of us forget that trading software is relatively new and in the first article, one of the pioneers in the development of trading software, Louis Mendelsohn, provides insights into the evolution of software and technical analysis. We are also reprinting some of Lou’s work from the 1990’s which detail problems the financial industry still faces today.
We then look at volatility using articles that rely more on the common VIX indicator including the thoughts of three Federal Reserve economists. Other articles provide insights into the state of the markets and work being done by MTA members and chapters around the world.
MTA member, Stella Osoba, CMT, published “Women on Wall Street” on Traders Planet. The article provides valuable career advice for both individuals breaking into the field and those in established positions. The article highlights ten valuable career tips for those seeking a job or for those looking to advance within their current position. You can read the whole article at http://go.mta.org/12184
After reading that article, please let us know if you think it would be beneficial to include content similar to that in Technically Speaking. You can always reach us at editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2014
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This month we are including a number of charts. As technicians, it is a relatively simple matter to generate charts. The challenge is to create meaningful charts. We think the authors of the charts in this month’s newsletter accomplished that. Each of the charts presented in this issue can be studied to develop new insights into the markets.
Many members enjoy obtaining information on career opportunities. We try to include that information in the newsletter when we can and will be including more information in the next few months about the QGLDX Trading Strategy Contest. This contest has a rigid, quantified process that allows money managers to demonstrate their skill and to obtain a oneyear exclusive contract to trade at least $1 million in assets.
We also have a news release from a company that has created a platform designed to help financial services firms launch new technology applications. The cost and time dedicated to software development can be daunting to professionals focused on the financial markets. New innovations in technology are creating new opportunities for professionals to expand their product offerings.
If you are aware of similar opportunities, please let us know by sending an email to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2014
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
Technically Speaking includes an interview with a practicing technical analyst almost every month. This month, we feature Amber Hestla-Barnhart’s exchange with Cynthia A. Kase, CMT, MFTA. Cynthia’s interview is striking for several reasons.
A standard question in each interview is “What advice would you have for someone starting in the business today?” The answers to this question are always interesting. This month, Cynthia provides a list of what every technician should consider as they strive for success. All readers, new and experienced analysts, should consider spending a few hours working
through this list.
Cynthia lists 13 short pieces of advice in her answer. Each one of them is important. Technical analysts, and any other professional, will need to “be realistic about the “cost” of meeting your goals. Be prepared to “pay the price.” The other twelve items on the list are equally succinct but could require hours of thought to understand.
If you find these interviews and our other content to be valuable, or if you would like to be the subject of an interview, please email us at editor@mta.org to provide your thoughts.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
In 1994, the MTA recognized Don Worden’s achievements with the MTA Annual Award. This award recognizes lifelong outstanding contribution to the development and widespread acceptance of technical analysis by institutional practitioners and individual investors. Don Worden truly did spend his lifetime making technical analysis accessible to institutions and individuals.
Sadly, Don passed away on May 31, 2014 at the age of 82. He was born before technical analysis was a formal field of study. His work from the 1950’s has led to a number of advances in technical analysis. He was a pioneer in the analysis of volume and his thoughts on how to interpret volume evolved as the markets changed. That might be Don’s greatest contribution to technical analysis – his ability to think about the markets as they are and to change his approach when the markets changed. Too many analysts impose rigid beliefs on the market and apply indicators with strict rules, ignoring changes in the market environment and risking losses as those changes render indicators less effective. In “Tape Reading in the Sleepy Fifties” we have Don’s own words to tell us how and why his thinking changed over a 40-year period. When an indicator stopped working, he explains, he sought to understand why and then built on his previous work.
In honor of Don’s contributions, we are also featuring the work of another pioneer in volume analysis, Buff Dormeier, CMT. Buff has quantified a unique approach to volume analysis and his work deserves a place next to Don Worden’s.
In future issues, we hope to continue demonstrating how thought leaders in technical analysis think about their work. If you would like more details on a particular technician’s work, please send your suggestions to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2014
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
You probably noticed we changed the format of Technically Speaking. The new one-column format is in response to feedback from readers. This format should make it easier to read and print the newsletter.
Hopefully you have not noticed any change in the quality of the content. Each month, we strive to bring you useful information and our focus on highquality content will never change.
We will continue fine tuning the format over the next few months and each small change should make the newsletter more readable. Please let us know what you think of the new style and also, please continue sending your submissions to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, June 2014
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
We are once again providing short summaries of several moments from the MTA Symposium and we will have more next month. As usual, there was too much information from the two-day event to summarize quickly. In this month’s summary, we present information about the MTA Annual Award Winner Larry Williams, an article with lessons learned over a lifetime in the industry from Steve Leuthold and the rules for a complete trading strategy from Perry Kaufman.
There is also a review of a book written by Michael E. S. Gayed, the late father of this year’s Charles H. Dow Award co-author Michael Gayed. This book was originally published in 1990. It was recently republished by the author’s son as a tribute to his father’s life and work. While the book is certainly a tribute to an insightful mind, it is also a modern day primer on what’s important in the markets. The section on economic indicators is one of the most practical collections of indicators ever assembled, and each section concludes with a clear opinion about the indicator’s usefulness.
We hope you enjoy this issue and ask you to please continue sending your submissions and comments to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2014
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This month and next, we will feature information covered at the MTA Annual Symposium. This year’s event was the best to date. The quality of the speakers, attendees and collaborative partners was exceptional. Planning is now underway for the 2015 Symposium. If you would like to provide feedback to the MTA on your experience, or make suggestions for topics and speakers next year, please fill out this brief survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/HY39WYV
The Symposium committee pulled together a wide array of thought leaders from the investment industry. Technically Speaking will feature summaries of some of the innovative and thought provoking presentations next month. No planning committee can control the quality of attendees. The fact that so many intelligent and personable analysts decide to attend every year is a reflection of the MTA membership. The organization attracts the best and the brightest minds in our field. Great attendees add to the educational value of the Symposium and provide networking opportunities that each member finds in their own way.
Collaborative Partners provide support to the event and offer an opportunity for all attendees to check out emerging technologies, research and services available. The MTA is very excited about the organizations that sponsored the Symposium this year and the work they are doing to advance technical analysis in the broader financial industry. We’ve included educational articles from two partners in this issue. The information can be useful to users of their products or to users of other software tools.
Let us know what you’d like to see in upcoming issues of Technically Speaking at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, April 2014
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
The MTA’s Annual Symposium will be held next month in New York City and this month we are previewing the work of two of the speakers. Ned Davis has been completing some of the most original and useful research in the field for decades and we can see several of his charts and studies included in a short article. He will provide many more charts to study in New York. In a separate article, Dr. Tucker Balch provides insights into how we can turn volatility into profits and he will be providing additional practical insights during his presentation.
In the next few months we will be presenting summaries of speaker presentations but these will capture only a small part of the information available at the Symposium. If you haven’t made plans to attend yet, there is still time. It’s actually not too early to start planning for next year either. The Symposium Committee is already preparing for next year’s Symposium and it is their year-long planning efforts that result in a successful Symposium every year.
I look forward to meeting many MTA members at the Symposium and I will be asking what you’d like to see in Technically Speaking. You can also email your thoughts on how we’re doing and what we should include in future issues to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, March 2014
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This year’s Annual Symposium will focus on the fusion of technical analysis with fundamental valuation, behavioral finance, macroeconomics and quantitative methods. The work of three of the scheduled speakers is included in this month’s newsletter.
Steven Leuthold explains his investment strategy for the next year and readers can ask him for an update in April at the Symposium. Steve is the only individual who has received the
Charles H. Dow Award from the MTA and the Graham and Dodd Scroll Award from the CFA Institute. Dr. Ben Hunt relies on game theory to understand the markets and the economy. Dr. Tucker Balch, a featured speaker, presents the results of research into buying and selling by company insiders that he completed with Scott Strong. Insider trading information is a form of sentiment analysis that technical analysts have used for many years.
We also have several other articles this month including Tom McClellan’s look at VIX ETNs and John Bougearel’s review of the current state of the market. Tom presents facts to demonstrate why long-term investors should avoid an ETN that is designed specifically for short-term traders. John presents some interesting chart patterns and provides a forecast based on technicals and fundamentals. He includes an overview of the macroeconomic environment that exists now and at several key turning points in the market. Please send any feedback or work you’d like to share through the newsletter to editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, February 2014
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This month’s newsletter begins with an article that covers the past and the present. Ralph Acampora, CMT, was present at the beginning of the MTA and has been a part of every major development in the organization during the past 40 years. He looks forward to the next 40 years of the MTA and expects much to change over that time. However, he also expects some things to remain as they are. Ralph, like so many others, expects the MTA to continue to be a professional organization where ideas are freely shared. The MTA will continue advancing the profession of technical analysis on Wall Street.
In addition to taking a long-term look into the future, we are also looking just a few months ahead in this issue. Although it is only January, the planning for this year’s Annual Symposium is well underway. In this month’s issue of Technically Speaking we are offering insights from two of the scheduled speakers, Perry Kaufman and John Murphy, CMT.
We hope that you will be planning to attend the Symposium and to participate in your local MTA Chapter in the coming year. We also hope you will share your work through the newsletter. Submissions can be sent at any time to editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, January 2014
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
In this month’s newsletter, we are presenting a diverse group of articles to show the breadth of the work being done within the field of technical analysis. While each article offers a different viewpoint, all of the authors use a number of charts. This is an unchanging feature of technical analysis, even in a time when there is an increased ability to quantify data.
Complex analysis can be clarified with a chart. In this note, is an example of how Kirk Northington, CMT, and Carson Dahlberg, CMT, of Northington Dahlberg Research have developed a method to visualize risk and reward. They have converted the potential gains and losses on a trade to MACD-style histogram and found an effective way to visualize the data. Technical analysis is changing, but it also remaining true to its roots and using visual tools to explain complex analysis. If you would like to share your work in this area, please email us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2013
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
Like every other field of study, technical analysis has a history that is important to study. The history of technical analysis includes research related to charts and indicators. This history also includes the stories of the people who advanced the field. This month we look at one of those individuals in detail.
Joe Granville rose to fame as a technical analyst in the 1960’s and 1970’s. In the future, it might not be possible for any other analyst to achieve his level of popularity. Markets are larger now and the time when one individual’s forecasts can move markets has likely passed. But Joe lived when that was possible and he did move the market on several occasions.
In addition to the past, articles in this issue of Technically Speaking also cover the present state of technical analysis with several pieces of applied analysis.
You can always email us at editor@mta.org to share your perspectives on the past, present and future of technical analysis.
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2013
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
Traders around the world are reacting to what they think the Federal Reserve might do in the coming months. Fed officials have repeatedly tried to calm the markets by explaining
they have no firm plans for managing the end of their latest Quantitative Easing initiative. For some reason, traders seem to be nervous about assurances. No one really seems to know what will happen next.
In this month’s newsletter, we have the insights of technicians from around the world. We are able to feature assessments of markets in the U.S., Canada, and the Philippines. We also have several charts showing the recent activity in India.
Hopefully in the future we can provide analysis of markets in other countries. There are now MTA Members in 85 countries. We have no way of knowing where the next global hot spot will be but we can be fairly certain an MTA member will be providing analysis on that market. If you prepare reports on some of the less widely covered markets, or on the more popular markets, please consider them sharing them with the MTA through Technically Speaking. You can email us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2013
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
We are starting this month’s newsletter with an article that challenges the traditional models used to explain market prices. Dr. Ben Hunt argues that just as the heliocentric model of
the solar system replaced a geocentric model over time, long-held beliefs about markets need to be reexamined and updated to reflect new knowledge. Fortunately, Dr. Hunt points out that there is a market theory which lays the groundwork for a new understanding of market:
“Technical analysis is, at its heart, behavioral analysis, and as such is prime real estate to build a new investment paradigm that incorporates game theoretic behaviors.”
This is a thought-provoking piece that is followed by a practical example of how the MTA Educational Foundation is working to further this goal. We then have practical examples of how the theory of technical analysis is applied in the real world.
I hope you are a part of the theoretical and practical changes that are occurring in the financial community. If you would like to share your thoughts on those changes, please email us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This month’s issue of Technically Speaking offers some of the theory underlying technical analysis and several examples of how this theory is applied.
The applications are specific and although diverse, charts are central to each. Although many of us have a number of quantitative tools at our disposal, price charts remain an indispensible part of technical analysis. For that reason, a number of charts are shown.
Jay Lefkowicz, CFA, CMT, uses long-term charts to make a bullish argument for U.S. stocks. Aksel Kibar, CMT, offers insights into some markets U.S.-based analysts may overlook. Nishant Bali ties together principles of market sentiment and intermarket analysis to build the bearish case for U.S. stocks. Each analysis is unique but well-structured and persuasive.
We would like the opportunity to include the work of other MTA members in future issues of Technically Speaking. If you publish research on a regular basis, please consider adding editor@mta.org to your distribution list.
Michael Carr
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
We focus on the practical in this month’s newsletter. From trading psychology to trading tools and trading strategies, we have tried to provide you with new ideas that you can apply in the slow summer market. Of course, the slow summer market is probably a myth but we all need to find time to explore ideas and tools that might help us become better at what we do.
Trading seems to be the point where theory meets practice in technical analysis. Hopefully you will find the techniques and tools we highlight to be useful.
Although trading is often associated with short-term analysis, many traders analyze long-term data. In the long-term, stocks can move up or down just as they do in the short-term. SRC Stock Charts offer a long-term perspective on markets and we conclude this issue with a chart of Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index. The Nikkei ended May with a one-week loss of 15% but is up about 50% in the last year. Shortterm volatility can mask the relentless down trend that defines that market. Over the past 25 years, the Nikkei has lost an average of 2.8% a year.
Please email us with suggestions for other long-term charts to highlight the ups and downs of trading for a living. We can be reached at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
As always, the MTA Annual Symposium was a success in every sense of the word. The presenters are chosen for their ability to deliver valuable and actionable ideas. Networking opportunities provide a chance to meet with old colleagues and make new contacts. In the past few years, the location has provided out-of-town visitors with expansive views of New York City, allowing for limited sightseeing while maintaining a busy schedule.
In the next few months, videos of many of the presentations will be added to the MTA web site and summaries of the presentations will be presented here.
While the presentations are the core of the Symposium, equally valuable are the vendor exhibits. Many of us turn to the same tools every day. We know there have been new products introduced since we selected our software but we also know that is difficult to keep up with new products and even more difficult to assess the capabilities from a description on a web site. The Symposium always brings together a small group of product partners that understand they will be facing a demanding audience.
If you were unable to make it to New York to see what’s new in the industry, you should still consider contacting the service providers that took time to learn how their product meets the needs of the MTA’s members. Several of the Symposium sponsors have agreed to extend special offers to all members for a limited time. More details are provided in this issue and contact information for all sponsors is also provided. Please give us any feedback on vendors and let us know what you would like to see in upcoming issues of Technically Speaking by emailing us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2013
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
We open this month’s newsletter with a preview of the Annual Symposium. Larry Williams updates the idea of cycles in this article and presented insights into his
latest work when he spoke in New York. Also at the Symposium, Larry’s son, Dr. Jason Williams, offered insights into the minds of winning traders. We will offer summaries of the presentations in future issues and many presentations will be online, ensuring all members can access this information even if their schedule didn’t permit them to travel to the event.
We have been celebrating the 40th anniversary of the MTA with a look at its history. No review of the history of technical analysis and the MTA would be complete without a look at the work of Arthur Merrill, CMT. Hewas among the first to publish studies of various market behaviors, like seasonal tendencies in the stock market such as the end-of-month effect. In this issue of Technically Speaking we are reprinting his study of M & W patterns from a 1980 issue of the MTA Journal. Few analysts could duplicate this study today using readily available charting software. Arthur worked with a programmable calcualator, “it was designed for [the] T159 programmable calculator, and had 476 instructions,” and chart paper. Other examples of his work can be found in the Journal archives available on the MTA web site.
We also include some analysis of the current market. Keene Little, CMT, combines Gann with Elliott with other techniques in his work. Jonathan Beck takes an equally innovative approach. Both rely on techniques included in the diverse Body of Knowledge of technical analysis. Please let us know what you consider to be the most important topics in the field by emailing us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
In February, the MTA is recognizing Women in Finance and will be featuring webcasts by experts in technical analysis who also happen to be women. We have tried to recognize the contributions some women have made to technical analysis in this issue of Technically Speaking.
The MTA has a long history of recognizing the role of women in finance including Bernadette Murphy, CMT, who served as the fifth president of the organization in 1977. We also briefly highlight the work of another past President, Gail Dudack, CMT, in this month’s newsletter along with brief articles about the work of Louise Yamada, CMT and Jeanette Schwarz Young, CFP, CMT.
While celebrating the fortieth anniversary of the MTA, it is interesting to note that the MTA has always focused on “attract(ing) and retain(ing) a membership of professionals devoting their efforts to using and expanding the field of technical analysis and sharing their body of knowledge with their fellow members.” Those words in found in the MTA constitution and history shows that women just happen to have been among the leading contributors to the body of knowledge over the years.
We would appreciate receiving any comments you have on the newsletter, which can be emailed to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This month, we are highlighting several examples of work that may be at the leading edge of technical analysis research. Robert Prechter, Jr., CMT, popularized Elliott Wave and is probably the individual most responsible for its worldwide popularity. He has continued studying wave patterns and extended that study to socionomics, a field he developed and discusses in this issue.
In addition to demonstrating his personal brilliance, socionomics demonstrates how the knowledge gained in the study of technical analysis can be applied to other fields. A detailed example of socionomics, demonstrating the link between the public mood, stocks prices and Presidential elections, is also included and readers should consider downloading the full paper. Manuel Amunategui then offers an intriguing idea that addresses some of the problems created by 24-hour trading. In some markets, the open and close have become less significant but the technique Manuel presents could help redefine price charts in these markets.
December marks the end of the year and an end to a special discount price available for the Annual Symposium. The speakers, including Robert Prechter who will be sharing his latest work, promise to deliver value to any trader and analyst. Please tell us what you think about the newsletter with an email to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2012
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This edition of Technically Speaking consists almost entirely of ideas discussed in Seattle at the recent MTA Regional Seminar. I did not attend the Seminar hoping to find these ideas but all MTA events result in a large number of ideas for me. The speakers are always thought-provoking and discussions with participants who travel to the events are equally inspiring. In the end, I always find more ideas than I have time to test or write about.
Meetings of the MTA have been serving this purpose for years. As the number of members increased, the MTA adopted technology to bring the benefits of meetings to members around the world. Blogs and discussions forums on the MTA web site are offering me an increasing number of trading ideas and increasing networking opportunities.
The MTA will certainly keep improving the opportunities for members to interact, but there is no way anyone can improve the quality of the interactions among market professionals that have defined the organization for nearly 40 years.
I encourage everyone to take advantage of the opportunity to gain insight, discover new techniques and celebrate with the global technical community at the 2013 MTA Annual Symposium in New York on April 4 &5, 2013. For complete information please visit https://symposium.mta.org.
Please send any comments you have about our newsletter to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2012
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
Once again, we have tried to present a broad array of work in technical analysis to you in this month’s issue.
Eric Leake uses economic news and interest rates to discuss the outlook for high yield bonds. Scott Hathaway applies geometric techniques to the gold market. Larry Berman, CMT, CFA, CTA, and Keith Richards, CMT, offer general trading guidance that they first offered on MTA blogs. While Larry points out that Canadian investors need to watch global events, this is good advice for traders and investors in any country. There is an increasing degree of globalization in the markets and events in any country could set off a global crash. Keith highlights the role of the Federal Reserve, a force that no analyst can ignore anymore.
We wrap up with a very brief look at two bubbles – tulips and subprime mortgages share some similarities that could help us spot future bubbles. I would appreciate any feedback you have on bubbles or any comments you have on our newsletter. Email us at editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2012
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
Scott Hathaway leads off this month’s issue with another example of how he uses geometry to identify market patterns. Scott has contributed to several issues of Technically Speaking and readers seem to be interested in his work. As always, Scott delivers enough detail to reproduce his techniques.
Content in the rest of the issue reflects Scott’s philosophy of innovation and detail. We are getting an updated view of the metals market from Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT. Jordan frequently publishes his forecasts and his thought process can be seen in reading his commentaries. We then reprint a couple of MTA Blog posts. This may be an overlooked member benefit but blogs found on MyMTA are often excellent research pieces. Scott frequently posts updates there and his latest insights in gold can be
found there.
Educational webcasts are also a benefit of MTA membership and two recent presentations are summarized. John Kosar, CMT, and Larry Connors are two very creative, data-driven technicians. Although different in many ways, their work shares an attention to history and detail that is of value to any technician.
Please let us know what you think about Technically Speaking. You can email us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2012
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
We take an extended look at the trading philosophy of Ian Woodward in this month’s issue. Ian has created a complete investment methodology based on the work of William O’Neil, Richard Arms and John Bollinger and the articles we feature offer an example of the thought process required for successful market analysis. The format is different than seen in most issues of this newsletter because it is a mix of figures and explanatory text that develop the ideas logically.
Ian came to my attention after John Bollinger, CFA, CMT, mentioned his work. John met with Ian as a result of an MTAEF luncheon fundraiser. John found that Ian’s work inspired him and will result in a new suite of indicators from this market master. Based on that fact, I set out to find Ian and learned he was a second-career technician, devoting his efforts to the market after retiring as an engineer. His story seemed similar to that which the late Art Merrill, CMT, might have shared. Art retired as an engineer and spent the next 34 years (a Fib number I believe) as a technician who advanced the field in many ways. I think Ian may do the same in the second half of his technical analysis career.
Please let us know what you think about this issue by emailing us at editor@mta.org
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, August 2012
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
In this month’s issue, we provide summaries of several additional presentations that were made at the Market Technicians Association Annual Symposium in April. We included several summaries in last month’s issue. Speakers included some of the best minds in the technical analysis community and the presentations are filled with actionable ideas.
The presentations we’ve summarized over the past two months along with several additional presentations can be viewed online at http://go.mta.org/505.
We are always appreciative of your feedback and look forward to hearing your thoughts on Technically Speaking. You can email us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
The Market Technicians Association has always been at the forefront of technical analysis and in this issue we demonstrate some of the ways the organization is doing that. We provide summaries of a few of the presentations made at the Annual Symposium in May which included thought provoking and practical ideas. More summaries will be in next month’s issue.
We also offer a review of a book by Paul Ciana, CMT. New Frontiers in Technical Analysis includes some original research from Paul and features the work of several other technicians, including some members. This book adds to the Body of Knowledge of technical analysis with the new techniques that are presented and for those without access to a Bloomberg terminal it delivers details on what the most commonly used features of that system are.
Last month, while acknowledging those recognized by the Awards Committee, I inadvertently overstated the role that George Lane had in the development of the stochastics. George Schade, Jr., CMT, provides corrected information in a Letter to the Editor that is included in this month’s issue. George’s work is another example of the leadership that members have in the field. He has studied in depth the history of technical analysis and is an invaluable resource to the organization and this newsletter.
Please let us know what you think about Technically Speaking by emailing us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
As an organization, the MTA has a strong sense of history. One of the ways the MTA chronicles the history of technical analysis and the organization is through its Annual Awards program. Individuals from the past who have made contributions to the field are honored at the Annual Symposium. This year, six individuals were commended for their work and we present small summaries of their accomplishments.
We also include history in this newsletter as often as possible. This month, we conclude with a summary of the Darvas Box, a trading technique developed by Nicolas Darvas. Although better known as a dancer than a market analyst, Darvas wrote a New York Times Best Seller in the late 1950s that highlighted the value of technical analysis to the public. Technicians working with screening software can easily automate his approach instead of relying on weekly issues of Barron’s as Darvas did more than fifty years ago.
This issue also offers an extract of a recent academic paper that discusses some of the topics that are explained poorly in finance textbooks. This material could help some who are trying to explain the benefits of technical analysis to academics. Beta and the equity risk premium may be ill defined, yet cornerstones of pricing theories. Technical analysis offers an adaptive approach to investment theory and could be more useful in real-world trading than concepts like that.
As always, we enjoy learning what you think about Technically Speaking. Please email us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This issue starts with an update on the CMT Program. The recent addition of Bob Johnson to the Program is a step toward making a great program even
better.
The rest of the issue is a collection of insights from practitioners in the field. Classic chart patterns still form the core of the discipline, but the patterns are being used in a number of different ways and the articles that follow will show just a small sample of the type of work technicians are doing today.
Please let us know what you think about Technically Speaking by sending an email to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This issue starts with a small preview of the upcoming Annual Symposium. Michael Covel will be the keynote speaker and we are presenting a small sampling of his philosophy. Covel is an expert on trend following and is able to explain the strategy along with its rich history. His writings are a valuable source of information for traders and his talk will certainly be valuable for traders and those interested in market psychology and history.
Also in this issue, Scott Hathaway offers another insightful article with another technique that he has developed. Last month he presented pentagonal analysis with detailed examples and a complete explanation of how you could apply the ideas to any chart. Scott recently explained his investing philosophy to me. He believes that “the mechanism behind the market is the collective unconscious of the trading community is a whole entity existing in our universe conforming to mathematical properties like everything else. Geometry of price and time helps to reveal these underlying fundamentals of this collective energy.” We are just beginning to see what is in Scott’s fertile mind, but his work seems to be in the tradition of Gann and Elliott.
Market historians will also enjoy the article by George Schade who details the origin of the Schultz AT indicator. As always, we hope you’ll tell us what you think about Technically Speaking by sending an email to editor@mta.org
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This month we are providing a detailed overview of several interesting techniques.
Scott Hathaway introduces pentagonal analysis with detailed examples and a complete explanation of how you could apply the ideas to any chart. Manuel Amunategui, CMT, offers very specific trading strategies that can be applied to help manage risk. James Brodie, CMT, describes the techniques he applies to trade a hedge fund.
We also feature an interview with Esther de S.G. Elkaïm, CMT. These interviews are highlighting the diversity of technical analysis opportunities and hopefully showing the possibilities for those considering a career in technical analysis.
Over the past months, the MTA has been searching for the right person to help bring the CMT program to the next level. After a thorough process, Robert Johnson, Ph.D., CFA, CAIA, was selected as Director, CMT Studies. Dr. Johnson will focus on enhancing the professionalism of the CMT Program and will eventually develop a customized curriculum for our candidates. In next month’s newsletter, we’ll have an interview with Dr. Johnson and get his first thoughts on the program.
As always, we hope you’ll tell us what you think about Technically Speaking by sending an email to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
We are starting the New Year for the newsletter by offering you a variety of topics. Hopefully we are reflecting the wide variety of work members of the MTA are doing in the real world.
Celebrating the New Year involves a number of traditions and applying technical analysis is also rooted in a number of traditional tools, many of which are updated and applied in unique ways. We feature the work of Eric Leake and John Kosar, CMT, showing how they are applying traditional tools to create valuable forecasts. Jeb Handwerger applies these types of tools to a market that isn’t widely followed, rare earth metals, but is in the news quite frequently. Ken Safian has long been applying traditional tools in an untraditional way to economic data in addition to following the stock markets with a technical-based approach. We also highlight a new book from Christopher Grafton, CMT, which explains a traditional tool, cycles, in a new way.
Please let us know what you are doing and allow us to share your application of the tools of technical analysis to the readers of Technically Speaking by sending an email to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, January 2012
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This month, we have tried to collect examples of thought provoking analysis techniques. Several members have contributed their unique perspectives and our hope is that others can benefit from the ideas they share. This issue is focused on the practical aspects of technical analysis.
As a group technicians tend to focus on obtaining practical results in the markets. Being right is secondary to making money. That means the analysis presented may be outdated by the time you read this. They are still valuable examples of the analytical process.
We’ve been using this new format for several months and would appreciate any feedback you have. The goal of Technically Speaking has always been to offer interesting information about technical analysis and the MTA, but over time the format has changed. Please let us know what we can do to deliver content that meets your needs by sending an email to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2011
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
Our Ethics Corner feature has generated some feedback, and this month we are revisiting the first case study we presented. As expected, there is room for differences of opinion on ethics questions.
In part, the growth of international membership in the MTA should guarantee some discussion on ethics. Laws differ among countries and cultural differences are greater than many assume. Perhaps the only undeniable truth in ethics is that people are not all alike. Different people hold different opinions, which is the underlying reason we have a market to trade.
While cultural differences must be considered in any situation, the Standards defined in the MTA Code of Ethics are mandatory for all members and affiliates. While there may be a less strict requirement defined in local laws at times, the Code of Ethics requires that the stricter rules of the Code must be the guide. Obviously if the law is stricter than the Code of Ethics, the Code does not offer an excuse for breaking the law.
We look forward to continuing discussions on ethics. It is important to our profession to hear as many opinions as possible. By understanding why some scenarios present “grey zones” we can make professional ethics stronger. Please send any comments to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2011
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
The MTA Educational Foundation (MTAEF) will be cosponsoring an event marking the 160th anniversary of the birth of Charles Dow. On November 3, there will be a celebration at the Museum of American Finance. You can learn more at http://go.mta.org/117
Among the speakers will be Robert W. Colby, CMT. We have included an article he wrote several years ago about Dow Theory in this month’s newsletter. It is the first of several articles we are offering on the revered technical tool in this month’s Technically Speaking. Paul Shread, CMT, offers a more detailed look at several aspects of the Theory. We are also offering highlights of a presentation that Ralph Acampora, CMT, made in May 2009 on the Dow Theory. Ralph will be the Master of Ceremonies at the event.
We are continuing our efforts to provide members and affiliates with more information about ethics, not because that is a problem area within our organization but because it is what helps define us as professionals. Like the Dow Theory, the MTA’s Code of Ethics has also proven to be timeless. We would appreciate any suggestions you have on topics to cover in upcoming Ethics Corner articles. Please send them to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2011
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
In this month’s newsletter, we discuss ethics in two of our articles. There isn’t any reason except professionalism for this. Members of the MTA strictly follow the Code of Ethics, and concerns are rarely brought before the Ethics Committee. Even rarer is the need for the Ethics Committee to take any action.
Ethics articles will simply be featured as a reminder of the professionalism and high standards of the Market Technicians Association. Membership in the MTA and earning the CMT designation demonstrate that research and opinions are based on facts and are supportable. As professionals, CMTs have studied the body of knowledge that defines technical analysis and are committed to delivering information that is based on the body of knowledge. Many members of the MTA complete their own research and help advance the profession.
We hope that you’ll find these ethics articles as interesting as the rest of the topics we cover. If you have ideas for articles you’d like to see, please let us know with an email to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2011
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Letter from the Editor
Last month, we carried the news that Julie Dahlquist, PhD, CMT, had been named as the new editor for the Journal of Technical Analysis, which is the scholarly publication of our organization. Many of us look forward to the next issue, as we always have, to learn the details of new techniques in our field and to see examples of in-depth research topics.
Research articles can also be submitted to this newsletter. Generally, shorter articles will be found in the newsletter while detailed and thorough examinations of a topic are more suitable for the journal. The monthly publication schedule also allows for immediate feedback to the author from the thousands of members around the world who will see the article.
Hopefully you’ll find the research being offered in Technically Speaking useful. We’ve also included member profiles in this issue, which may help newer members see that there is no single career path in the field. MTA members have varied backgrounds, and success is determined by hard work more than any other factor.
We strive to provide content that is useful, readable, and varied. If you have ideas for articles you’d like to see, please let us know with an email to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, August 2011
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Letter from the Editor
This issue contains a few more summaries of MTA Symposium speaker presentations. There were two other presentations that no one should miss, but are in some ways too important to offer in summary form.
The Technician’s Technician Panel brought together the technical analysts employed by the largest firms. Jordan Kotick, CMT, Managing Director and Head of Technical Trading Strategy for Barclays Capital, led the discussion and shared the stage with:
- Richard Adcock, MSTA, Executive Director, Fixed Income Technical Strategy (London), UBS
- Mary Ann Bartels, Head of US Technicals and Market Analysis, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
- Muray Gunn, CFTe, Head of Technical Analysis, HSBC
- Michael Krauss, Managing Director and Head of Global Fixed Income Technical Analysis, J.P. Morgan Securities
- Tom Pelc, MSTA, CFTe, Head of Technical Strategy, RBS Group
- David Sneddon, Managing Director, Credit Suisse
While their market views and favorite techniques differ, all of these esteemed analysts share one opinion. They agreed that technical analysis is in a bull market and opportunities are more plentiful than ever in this field.
Always popular, the Market Forecast Panel brings several distinguished technicians together to discuss what they see in the markets and how they think the future will unfold. Rather than trying to present the views of Ralph Acampora, Dr. Hank Pruden, Ken Tower and Chris Cady into simple bullish or bearish calls, the video of this discussion should be watched in full. What is most important is the thought process that some of the greatest minds in technical analysis apply to formulate their opinions. Each uses a different approach, and each has attained a great deal of success with their technique.
As we work on future issues, we would like to hear what is important to you, our readers. Please let me know what you’d like to see in upcoming issues. The MTA Directory lists my phone number, or email editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2011
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Letter from the Editor
Every May, the MTA holds its Annual Symposium and technicians converge in New York to see old friends, meet new ones, and learn about the markets. This year was the largest gathering in history, with 350 members and affiliates from around the world gathering at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
The venue offered an interesting perspective on technical analysis. One of the fundamental principles of technical analysis is that history repeats itself. Without thinking, the NYSE seems to be a symbol of change, at least in the modern era. Electronic algorithms and high frequency trading have reshaped the investment landscape, and the Exchange has been on the leading edge of technology to adapt to penny spreads and an ever-evolving market structure.
On breaks, the Symposium attendees had a chance to wander the hallowed halls of finance sitting at the corner of Wall and Broad. Some history is displayed in those halls, a collection of pictures and memorabilia. In some ways, the Symposium was what it must feel like for a baseball fan to wander through the Hall of Fame at Cooperstown while getting to talk to the players who will have their plaques in the future. Wandering those halls on a break, I read a letter to the Exchange written by Thomas Edison on August 24. 1882. He asked for permission to run a line from the exchange for his own data service, promising to transmit quicker and more reliable data.
That letter seemed to sum up technical analysis. Investors never change; they always want an edge in the markets. History is a lot like a series of repetitive themes that play out in different ways each time. The NYSE displays proof that investors wanted faster and cleaner data for at least the past 130 years. Odds are, that will still be an issue in the twenty-second century.
History also repeats within the MTA. Every May, there is an Annual Symposium that benefits members with unique opportunities and market perspectives. It’s only June, but many are already looking forward to next May.
In this issue of Technically Speaking, we present brief summaries of a few of the presentations. We’ll offer more details on other presentations in the next issue. Videos of the presentation will soon be available in the MTA archives, and every presentation is worth watching, or re-watching for those fortunate enough to have been there.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, June 2011
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Letter from the Editor
This issue covers several basics of technical analysis. It’s often helpful to step back from the complexity we create in our field and review the time tested ideas that technical analysis has been built on.
George Schade, CMT, offers a historical perspective on the widely used stochastic oscillator. He has painstakingly researched the origin of this indicator and shows us how it was developed and explains the history of the indicator. We often forget that there was time before computers and data was difficult to obtain, and very expensive when it was found. This article takes us back in time to those simpler times, which in many ways required deeper market analysis and a greater understanding of how prices moved.
Phil Roth, CMT, details his recent experience of teaching technical analysis at a university. Phil is a major contributor to the course developed by the MTA Educational Foundation, and those wanting to learn more about the Foundation’s work can stop by their workshop at the Annual Symposium, or they can contact the Foundation directly. The ready-made course is a comprehensive summary of technical analysis, and is a tribute to Phil and those he worked with on its development.
I am hoping to meet many of our readers at the MTA Symposium this month. My opinion is that this annual event is one of the most valuable benefits of membership, and judging from the fact that the event has sold out, I am not alone in that assessment. Please let me know when we meet what articles you’d like to see in upcoming issues of the newsletter, or email me at editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2011
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Letter from the Editor
We’re featuring a couple longer articles this month, which we think fit well in our newsletter. George Rahal takes a detailed look at quantifying potential rewards relative to risk, an important trading consideration. His contribution is well written and understandable to the novice trading system developer while offering new insights to veteran programmers.
Andy Ratkai, CFA, recently prepared a report for his clients that brought together several interesting macro insights. In a way, he ties wave analysis into behavioral finance and raises a number of thought-provoking ideas. Buff Dormeier, CMT, continues to share high quality research on methods for applying volume to market analysis. He recently released a book which adds to the Body of Knowledge of Technical Analysis while offering actionable guidance for traders. It’s also that rare book which is interesting and a fun read. Although we never make guarantees in our profession, I am confident that I could guarantee everyone will learn something form this book as Buff combines historical stories with new techniques.
Next month, many members will gather at the Annual Symposium in New York. This event is always well-attended and highly educational. It’s also an opportunity to meet other members, and I hope to meet many of you so that I can learn what you expect from your newsletter.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, April 2011
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Letter from the Editor
This month, we are simply highlighting the success of technical analysis. The MTA remains at the forefront of the field and its general acceptance throughout the investment community. In this issue, the success of another regional seminar is detailed. These one-day seminars play host to over 200 attendees and will undoubtedly continue to be well-attended wherever they are held.
We also feature an article highlighting the technical analysis of noted analysts Jeremy Grantham and David Rosenberg. While Grantham may not admit to being a technician, his work is easily recognized to members of the MTA as technical analysis. Rosenberg has a large audience and frequently offers technical analysis, helping to increase the acceptance of technical analysis among institutional investors.
It seems obvious now that the widespread acceptance of technical analysis in the investment community took a giant step forward when the CMT exam process was introduced. Two articles detail parts of that process: Lance McDonald describes studying and Brad Herndon describes grading.
Academia frequently looks at technical concepts and uses different terms to describe well-know concepts. As one example, academic papers about momentum are easily recognized as relative strength strategies by practitioners of technical analysis. An article by George Rahal bridges the divide between behavioral finance (in academic terms) and technical analysis.
Please let us know what you’d like to see in future issues of Technically Speaking.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, March 2011
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Letter from the Editor
Technical analysis has a rich, and little studied, history. MTA members are doubtlessly aware of this and understand that their membership helps them unlock a great deal of the available history. Thousands of books fill the shelves of the MTA library, some of them are the original works in their field of study. This is one of the most popular benefits of membership.
As technology changed, the historical archive of any field has expanded to include videos as well. Taking advantage of the leading edge of technology, the MTA has captured the thinking of some of the leading technicians in the world and provides videos of these presentations.
In recent issues of Technically Speaking, we have been featuring video presentations that are available in the archives section of the member’s section of the MTA web site. We believe there is great value in reviewing these and find that the true principles of technical analysis are timeless. Spending an hour looking at the current thinking of technicians from the time of a market bottom or top shows not only how they thought then, but with the advantage of hindsight you also know if it worked. That allows you to adapt that thinking to the market, learning from both what worked and what didn’t work.
We’ve long recognized that these resources help us to become better technicians. Recently, the MTA Board of Directors adopted a voluntary Continuing Education program that formally recognizes the role of the library and the video archives. You can now earn CE credits for reading the classic works in our field and studying the video presentations of some of the best minds in our industry. Most members will easily meet the goals of this program without making any changes in their professional development program.
There are many benefits of MTA membership, and the chance to learn so much about technical analysis from a variety of tools is only one of them. As always, we hope you consider this newsletter to be another valuable benefit of membership.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, February 2011
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[post_date] => 2011-01-15 12:00:37
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Letter from the Editor
As we start a new year, many people take the time to reflect on where they are, and where they have been. Considering the state of our discipline at this time, we can note that technical analysis is widely accepted and well covered in the investment community. Bloomberg terminals dominate the professional landscape and offer news and analysis, but also charts and thousands of variations of charting. For those without access to these terminals, some type of charting software is the dominant application on their desktop.
It is very likely that most MTA members and affiliates can’t even remember a time when technical analysis wasn’t widely accepted. More than a decade ago, day trading became popular, and these strategies more often than not involved technical tools. But only a decade before that, in the mid-1980s, technical analysis was limited to a small part of the investment community and FNN, the predecessor to CNBC, devoted only a small part of their programming to the subject. In many ways, we are experiencing the same lack of acceptance in the academic community. While many professors scoff at the tools we use profitably, in some ways it is just a debate rooted in semantics. Technicians focus on practical solutions, and academics focus on statistically valid proofs. The objective is the same but the language is different.
In time, technical analysis will break down the barriers faced in academia, just as it gained acceptance among professionals and individual investors. The MTA is leading the way in this push, expanding membership among professionals and students, and taking steps to ensure that the CMT remains the gold standard level of professional certification.
Hopefully, this newsletter meets your needs and helps further the goals of the MTA. With the introduction of the continuing education program, professionals can earn credits by contributing to the newsletter. Aspiring professionals, including those still in college, can distinguish themselves in the highly competitive job market by adding writing credits to their resumes.
We look forward to serving you in the year ahead,
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, January 2011
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Letter from the Editor
This is the second issue where we provide a brief summary of a presentation available for viewing in the MTA video archives. Watching the speakers from years ago may seem like a nostalgic divergence from the current markets. Nothing could be further from the reality that these videos are an invaluable learning tool for novice and experienced technicians.
The MTA has always served more as a breeding ground of ideas instead of a ‘stock tout club.’ In conversations with early members of the MTA, that is frequently mentioned as one of their goals. They wanted to have meetings where the ideas discussed would withstand the test of time. They felt there were plenty of opportunities to gather and exchange tips. The MTA was designed to be different. The video archives meet this goal in a way that the founding members never dreamed of as a possibility.
Of course the technology that makes this possible was not known when the first meetings were held. At that time, New York City was the center of the organization, and the only place to have access to the expert presentations that have long been the standard of the New York meetings. I would guess the regional chapters and worldwide growth of the organization were never envisioned in their original discussions.
With the video archives, and other valuable services available through the MTA web site, you can benefit from membership without ever being in New York. We hope you find Technically Speaking to be one of the benefits of membership.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2010
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Contributions
- Technically Speaking, May/June 2016
- Technically Speaking, January 2016
- Technically Speaking, September 2015
- Technically Speaking, August 2015
- Technically Speaking, July 2015
- Technically Speaking, June 2015
- Technically Speaking, May 2015
- Technically Speaking, April 2015
- Technically Speaking, March 2015
- Technically Speaking, February 2015
- Technically Speaking, January 2015
- Technically Speaking, December 2014
- Technically Speaking, November 2014
- Technically Speaking, October 2014
- Technically Speaking, September 2014
- Technically Speaking, August 2014
- Technically Speaking, July 2014
- Technically Speaking, June 2014
- Technically Speaking, May 2014
- Technically Speaking, April 2014
- Technically Speaking, March 2014
- Technically Speaking, February 2014
- Technically Speaking, January 2014
- Technically Speaking, December 2013
- Technically Speaking, October 2013
- Technically Speaking, September 2013
- Technically Speaking, August 2013
- Technically Speaking, July 2013
- Technically Speaking, June 2013
- Technically Speaking, May 2013
- Technically Speaking, April 2013
- Technically Speaking, February 2013
- Technically Speaking, December 2012
- Technically Speaking, November 2012
- Technically Speaking, October 2012
- Technically Speaking, September 2012
- Technically Speaking, August 2012
- Technically Speaking, July 2012
- Technically Speaking, June 2012
- Technically Speaking, May 2012
- Technically Speaking, April 2012
- Technically Speaking, March 2012
- Technically Speaking, February 2012
- Technically Speaking, January 2012
- Technically Speaking, December 2011
- Technically Speaking, November 2011
- Technically Speaking, October 2011
- Technically Speaking, September 2011
- Technically Speaking, August 2011
- Technically Speaking, July 2011
- Technically Speaking, June 2011
- Technically Speaking, May 2011
- Technically Speaking, April 2011
- Technically Speaking, March 2011
- Technically Speaking, February 2011
- Technically Speaking, January 2011
- Technically Speaking, September 2010
