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Anindya Banerjee, CMT, CFTe, CCRA

Anindya Banerjee, CMT, CFTe, CCRA

Anindya Banerjee, CMT, CFTe, CCRA is the Head of Research for FX and Interest Rates with Kotak Securites. He has been a research analyst and trader both, across asset classes. It was commodities where he began 16 years back. Since he has not only been analysing and recommending actionable ideas in equity, currency and even interest rates but also actively trading some of these markets for the firm. Past 10 years, he is heading the research in foreign exchange and interest rates for Kotak Securities. He considers technical analysis and fundamental analysis as two important tools to analyse any traded market. Hence, his approach is always a blend of both. He is widely quoted in newswires and electronic media.

He is passionate about everything and therefore, whatever needs to be done, He does it to the best of my ability with full involvement. He loves listening to Indian classical music as well soft hindi, bengali and english music as well. His day is never complete without long hours of pratice of Yoga. He is a joyful human being.

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            [post_content] => Welcome readers, to another edition of Technical Insights! 

It’s been a difficult couple of months as we deal with the second wave of a virus that has taken over a better part of our lives for more than a year now. I sincerely hope that you and your families are safe and healthy. 
 

The market too has reflected a similar rollover in sentiment, which naturally continues to play out even now. It’s amazing how the market acts as a living, breathing organism that ebbs and flows with the emotion of its main constituent- the people. 
 

While we continue to observe long-term base breakouts in indices across the globe, we’re also witnessing a slow-down in momentum in a few. But what does that mean for market participants? Well, for starters, one would have to be fastidious in their selection process. To get a slice of this pie, one would have to pay greater attention to detail, focus on sector rotation and plan their portfolios accordingly. We’re not in the 2020 market rally where stock selection was relatively much easier! But then again, as technical analysts I think we’re built to handle such market moves. 
 

But what does it mean to be a technical analyst? This is my take on it. 
 

As a technical analyst, one is expected to observe price data and the trends that have formed in the past, to gauge the possible future outcomes. Does that mean that a particular view is set in stone? Certainly not. Can the analyst be wrong in their analysis? Most definitely. Does that mean one should give up when they’re wrong? Not at all! The beauty of this subject is that you can be on both sides, but you will always be protected by a risk management strategy (that is, if you are vigilant).  

In my opinion technical analysts have what it takes to excel in any market conditions. At the core of this belief is that for every given trade, all the levels are in place. Entry as well as Exit (be that a target or a stop loss).  

 

So, what’s the caveat? Patience. Years of learning and experience lead to sharp analysis and execution. As a field, it demands your complete attention and takes you on a roller coaster ride before you’re ready for the next one!  

 

To all those who are finding their way, give it time and a lot of introspection. Eventually you will reach a point where failed moves won’t deter you and successful moves won’t blur you. That’s the goal!  

Since the market has been messy for the most part, this month we have a write-up each about the outlook in Equities, Gold and INR. In addition to this we have a blog on stock specific pattern identification as well.  

P.S - The Americas Summit 2021 concluded recently and I had the rare honour of appearing as a speaker. It was truly an enriching experience and if you haven’t already, I’d definitely encourage you to check out the videos on the Digital Guide. There’s decades of information in those few hours of content that is certainly worth your time! 
 

Until we meet againThink Technical!  

Rashmi Shastry, CMT

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            [post_content] => Hello Readers!

What a great beginning we’ve had to 2021! The stock market has become the most popular kid in class, and the events that unfolded over the last month have done more than enough to draw extra attention and eyeballs to our star performer.

It’s a fascinating world where although similar patterns repeat or rhyme across different time frames, there are certain events that manage to throw a surprise party for all the participants and bystanders. Regardless of your relationship with the market, you now probably have a decent idea about what a “short squeeze” is and what GME, AMC and BB stand for; or at least know why they've been in the news.

The beauty of being a part of this field is that while human nature means that predictable patterns can be tracked during different phases of a market cycle, the unpredictability of an independent thinking brain has the power to challenge established ideas and perceptions. These challenges offer valuable golden lessons if you’re one who looks to learn from just about anything and everything that unravels/unfolds around you. While I have my list of lessons that I’ve learnt from such events, I’d like to hear what your biggest takeaways were.

We’ve all heard the phrase “Survival of the Fittest” and the market is a living embodiment of this saying since market participants revise this concept over and over again across different time frames. If the market was an Immigration Officer and you were going to the US (participating in the market), you will not be left alone unless you answer the most important question: What is the purpose of your visit? Once you figure out what the answer to this question is, your relationship with the market becomes amicable. It becomes easier to gauge the sentiment and direction of a given move when the purpose is clear.

This edition presents a couple of perceptions about the US Dollar outlook, an informative round-up of Nifty50, a short introduction to understanding Relative Strength Charts and a very important lesson on how the Markets Discount Everything!

If you have any questions or anything in particular you’d like to read about in the upcoming editions, do reach out to us.

 

Until next time, think Technically!

 

Rashmi Shastry, CMT
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            [post_content] => Hello Readers!  

Wishing all of you a prosperous and healthy Diwali in advance. May this festival light up your lives, both personally and professionally! 

The recently concluded CMT 2020 India Virtual Summit was a great successWorld class speakers graced us with their virtual presenceand I can confidently say that there are decades of learnings in the recordings of these sessions that any analyst would benefit from immensely! A big thank you to all the Speakers and participants for making this Summit a memorable one. For all those who missed it, we have compiled some session descriptions and have dedicated this edition of the Newsletter to the Summit. There’s GOLD in these sessions, so do make sure that you go through them before the online video recordings expire on November 16, 2020!   

If you had already registered for the Summit, log back in to your digital event guide to access the recordings. If you hadn't registered for the Summit, you can register to view the recordings here https://cmtassociation.org/events/2020-india-regional-summit/

As a market participant, there are certain concepts that you learn through personal, rigorous study and certain concepts that you learn by simply being a part of the system. I recently came across interesting analogies in Sanskrit and found it quite relevant to us. 

Markata Kishor Nyayam: (Baby monkey principle/law) 

You must’ve noticed that the mother monkey moves swiftly from one branch to another while the baby monkey hangs on with a tight grip so as to not fall. Here, the baby focuses on the grip, while the mother focuses on movement alone.  

Marjaala Kishor Nyayam: (Baby cat principle/law) 

A mother cat carries its kitten in its mouth to move them to safety or to a different location. Here, the onus lies on the mother to make sure that she doesn’t drop or hurt the kitten while holding on to it with a delicate balance of grip and care. The kitten surrenders itself to the mother. 

As traders and analysts we spend countless hours understanding various aspects of the market by holding on to it with a tight grip, as it swings from bull cycles to bear cycles, just like a baby monkey holds on to its mother. There are also times when we understand concepts by being part of the market where the market guides us and helps us, just like a mother cat doesOne cannot always be as tenacious as a baby monkey or as laid back as a kitten. It is a combination of these two approaches that leads to a fulfilling understanding of a subject. 

In order to improve our trade, it is imperative to revisit the involuntary errors we make and work towards overcoming them together: 
  1. I will refrain from saying “I told you so” (this one is particularly difficult in our field) 
  2. I will not compare my Chapter 8 to someone else’s Chapter 20  
  3. I will not blame the market for my errors (this is just convenient. Why would the market single you out?)  
  4. will exit the trade once it has triggered my stop loss; not average it (aren’t all of us guilty of this at some point?) 
  5. I will identify patterns on charts without forcing them (if I just tweak the lines a little, I can make it look like a triangle…maybe) 
  6. I will focus on being unbiased (My way or the highway really doesn’t work here) 
These are some of my New Year resolutions. I figured I might as well get an early start. You are free to borrow and build on them!    Until the next time,   Rashmi Shastry, CMT [post_title] => Technical Insights - November 2020 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technical-insights-november-2020 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-11-09 15:53:34 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-11-09 20:53:34 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technical_insights&p=53436 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technical_insights [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 571075 [post_id] => 53436 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_8_contributor [meta_value] => a:4:{i:0;s:5:"52776";i:1;s:5:"53045";i:2;s:5:"52872";i:3;s:5:"53138";} ) [3] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 52759 [post_author] => 3815607 [post_date] => 2020-09-02 17:05:21 [post_date_gmt] => 2020-09-02 21:05:21 [post_content] => Hello readers! Welcome to the first edition of the CMT India Newsletter – Technical Insights. Necessity is the mother of invention. Introspection is the mother of reinvention. So we reinvented our approach towards Life, as we knew it. What was once a scene out of a sci-fi movie, now became our reality; as countries across the globe went into lockdown to limit the impact of Covid-19. Cut to two quarters later, and survival is the only mantra. In the spirit of survival, we decided to regroup and provide market participants with high quality insights to help them navigate the risks inherent to markets these days. We were sitting on a gold mine of technical analysis talent and we resolved to make the most of our resources. The market has taken us on a roller-coaster ride over the past six months and the need for quality analysis is more telling than ever before. To help participants understand how various aspects of their markets are interlinked, we called upon our experienced charter holders to share perspectives that could help you in treading unexplored vistas. The idea is not only to introduce readers to the body of knowledge of Technical Analysis, but to also familiarize them with its heartbeat. Informed market participants know how to make their money work for them. Whether we are ‘working from home’ or ‘staying at work’, here’s a newsletter focused on technical analysis that will give you insights on application of concepts, and strategies. When big families have a meal, a buffet makes more sense than à la carte. So, when the CMT family came together we decided to present a buffet of information - something for everyone. The sections that will form a part of the newsletter are: If there is any other topic that you wish to see here, contact us and we will do our best to incorporate your suggestions. This is the beginning of an exciting new journey and we are overjoyed to share this with you! To all the volunteers, members, charter holders, the CMT Head Office in New York, and the leader of the pack – the India Office Head, Joel Pannikot: Thank you for making this dream a reality. Rashmi Shastry, CMT Editor   Disclaimer: This newsletter is for information purposes only. None of the content here is to be construed as investment advice or recommendations. The views and opinions expressed by each author is their own. [post_title] => Technical Insights, September 2020 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technical-insights-september-2020 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-09-08 13:28:42 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-09-08 17:28:42 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technical_insights&p=52759 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technical_insights [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 554202 [post_id] => 52759 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:5:"52776";} ) )

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