Ashish Kyal, is the Founder of Waves Strategy Advisors and Ashish Kyal Trading Gurukul.

He is the Author of Effective Trading in Financial Markets using Technical Analysis.  His articles have appeared in newsletters of CMT Association, International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA – London) Reuters, and Bloomberg and a research paper in Journal of the Society of Technical Analysts (STA). He is a frequent speaker on business channels like Zee Business, CNBC Awaaz, CNBC TV18, ET NOW, Bloomberg Quint, Rajya Sabha TV.  He is a regular columnist for Economic Times section of Navbharat Times and has been interviewed by Swiss Business Channel on Indian Economy. 

Ashish is known for his expertise on Inter-market analysis, Elliott wave, Neo wave, Time cycles and calling for major tops and bottoms on Nifty, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gold, Crude, Currency and much more time and again.  He has vast experience in Capital markets and has worked with leading Investment Banks Lehman Brothers, Nomura Holdings within Capital Markets division.

He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and member of CMT Association.  Ashish is an MBA and did his Bachelor of Engineering from Mumbai University.

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            [post_content] => The only hope from May was that it gives us some direction. Well, we can say this was partially fulfilled!  

When you think about it, the market is quite a dramatic character. It strikes when least expected, it sleeps when most anticipated, and does plain and simple nothing when everything is predicted. True to its dramatic reputation, the market came through with a breakout over the last two days of the month. While we got this confirmation on the domestic front, we’re still looking for some signals on the global front.  

A sideways market can be quite frustrating. It's a difficult environment to trade in and it's easy to throw in the towel. But look a little closer and you’ll realize there are more lessons here than in a secular bull/bear market!  

What have I learned in my time following the market? Among many lessons, here is my favourite:  

Patience is a virtue, but complacence is a vice!   

Take for instance all the risk-on metrics that have been rallying since last year. It was easy because defensive segments like the DXY, Bonds, and Gold just didn’t present an opportunity to load up on them! What did we see over the past two months though? The defensives stopped making lower highs and lower lows. There are now higher lows on some key combinations. What does that tell us? It tells us that there is more to stock picking now than there has been for months now!   

Now is the time when the analysts who truly follow their signals and strategies will get through the storm! Buying Copper and staying put will not help if Gold is outperforming Copper. Buying the Auto sector and relaxing will not yield better results if Energy is outperforming Auto. Not setting risk management levels in tandem with the volatility of cryptocurrencies will most certainly not help your portfolio value. These are trends that will play out as and when a market matures and progresses. And it is more important to be aware of these developments if you’d like to stay ahead of the curve.  

In this month’s issue, we bring to you write-ups on novel methods of Index target calculations, Hurst’s Time cycles, RSI generated long-term buy signals and sector-specific analysis. We also have a special contribution from one of our international members, analyzing Bitcoin.   

So, what should we ask of June, then?   

How about 22 days of trading? Seems quite reasonable, don’t you think?   

Now for some news. This will be final edition of Technical Insights. We’ve had 10 glorious months of technical studies and brilliant insights (it's in the name, I had to do this!). I hope that in some way or the other, we have been able to help you gain a new perspective or understanding of the market. To say that it was an honour being the Editor of this Newsletter is an understatement! I didn’t know what I was getting into, but it was a beautiful journey of finding my voice and my way. I have had the opportunity to interact with the best Technicians and learn from them. I have gained the experience of managing a Monthly Newsletter, a dream I had when I was a media student. There have been several learnings and successes along the way, and it has been possible only because of you, our dear readers! Thank you for your feedback and encouragement, it is what made us pump out content every month!  

Travel hasn’t resumed yet, but our Newsletter can certainly go places. Well, we're going international! Technical Insights will be merged with Technically Speaking to form one global entity. We're working on the transition as you’re reading this. So, in technical terms, we’re consolidating at all-time highs, and the indicators suggest that there’s another breakout coming!  

We will meet again, soon enough. But until then, Think Technical!   

Rashmi Shastry, CMT 

Editor 
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            [post_content] => Hello Readers!  

Wishing all of you a prosperous and healthy Diwali in advance. May this festival light up your lives, both personally and professionally! 

The recently concluded CMT 2020 India Virtual Summit was a great success. World class speakers graced us with their virtual presence, and I can confidently say that there are decades of learnings in the recordings of these sessions that any analyst would benefit from immensely! A big thank you to all the Speakers and participants for making this Summit a memorable one. For all those who missed it, we have compiled some session descriptions and have dedicated this edition of the Newsletter to the Summit. There’s GOLD in these sessions, so do make sure that you go through them before the online video recordings expire on November 16, 2020!   

If you had already registered for the Summit, log back in to your digital event guide to access the recordings. If you hadn't registered for the Summit, you can register to view the recordings here https://cmtassociation.org/events/2020-india-regional-summit/

As a market participant, there are certain concepts that you learn through personal, rigorous study and certain concepts that you learn by simply being a part of the system. I recently came across interesting analogies in Sanskrit and found it quite relevant to us. 

Markata Kishor Nyayam: (Baby monkey principle/law) 

You must’ve noticed that the mother monkey moves swiftly from one branch to another while the baby monkey hangs on with a tight grip so as to not fall. Here, the baby focuses on the grip, while the mother focuses on movement alone.  

Marjaala Kishor Nyayam: (Baby cat principle/law) 

A mother cat carries its kitten in its mouth to move them to safety or to a different location. Here, the onus lies on the mother to make sure that she doesn’t drop or hurt the kitten while holding on to it with a delicate balance of grip and care. The kitten surrenders itself to the mother. 

As traders and analysts we spend countless hours understanding various aspects of the market by holding on to it with a tight grip, as it swings from bull cycles to bear cycles, just like a baby monkey holds on to its mother. There are also times when we understand concepts by being part of the market where the market guides us and helps us, just like a mother cat does. One cannot always be as tenacious as a baby monkey or as laid back as a kitten. It is a combination of these two approaches that leads to a fulfilling understanding of a subject. 

In order to improve our trade, it is imperative to revisit the involuntary errors we make and work towards overcoming them together: 

 	
I will refrain from saying “I told you so” (this one is particularly difficult in our field) 
 	
I will not compare my Chapter 8 to someone else’s Chapter 20  
 	
I will not blame the market for my errors (this is just convenient. Why would the market single you out?)  
 	
I will exit the trade once it has triggered my stop loss; not average it (aren’t all of us guilty of this at some point?) 
 	
I will identify patterns on charts without forcing them (if I just tweak the lines a little, I can make it look like a triangle…maybe) 
 	
I will focus on being unbiased (‘My way or the highway’ really doesn’t work here) 

These are some of my New Year resolutions. I figured I might as well get an early start. You are free to borrow and build on them! 

 

Until the next time,  

Rashmi Shastry, CMT
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            [post_content] => 
Welcome, Readers, to the second edition of Technical Insights, for October 2020.

Change is Constant.

This statement is a fun oxymoron but change is not easy to keep up with. Humans have evolved exponentially since the beginning of time and this can be attributed to one very important factor-Adaptability. Since change is constant, only those who adapt, will survive. Consider this, if the stock market is a whole world of its own, all the stocks are like people in it. Stocks react much like the people around us. Some are stable, some are temperamental, some are active, and some are passive, and so on. Stocks have different personalities because they reflect their traders’ traits. Treat them as your friends and recognize their traits in order to comprehend their trends.

Understanding this universe leads to effective analysis.  Market participants take some time to build their systems and strategies in order to be on the right side of the market more often than not. Most people learn through trial and error over a considerable period. While experience is a very important aspect in the market, one cannot wait for things to happen to experience all kinds of scenarios. For that matter, one wouldn’t hope for a market to crash, just to learn how to react to it better! Therefore, it is a smart move to learn from those who have been a part of the market for longer and have spent more time honing their own skills. Just like books, human beings themselves are a source of immense knowledge!

The pandemic took over our lives for a better part of the year. It has given us time to pause and reflect on our actions and goals. These trying times are opportunities to enhance our existing skill set. A new normal is waiting for us at the horizon, and we must be prepared for it. In keeping with the idea of learning from experiences of others, the CMT Association is hosting the second edition of the Annual (now Virtual) Summit on 10 and 11 of October. Speakers from across the globe will share their views, strategies, tips and tricks, to help you befriend stocks quickly.

I have had the good fortune of listening to sessions by some of these speakers before, and I guarantee you, you are in for a treat! Various styles of trading and analysis will be showcased by individuals currently placed at the helm of their organizations: tactfully maneuvering in times of distress and sharing their ideas with other enthusiasts. This is a Technical Analyst’s Annual Extravaganza and must not be missed! What’s more, we have the Bull of Dalal Street, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala joining us as well! Hope to see you guys online at the Summit, until then, do take care of yourselves and think Technical!

Regards,

Rashmi Shastry, CMT  

Editor
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            [post_content] => The joke running around the Internet is that this 2020 Leap Year had 29 days in February, 300 days in March and five years in April. It is already a year of biblical proportions, with locusts swarming in Africa, the global plague of COVID-19, and then murder hornets arriving in Washington state. The foot of snow that fell in the Northeast on May 8 seemed mild, but we can just wonder if June is thinking, “hold my beer.”

Yes, it is a different world. Millions are out of work, yet the stock market is on the road to recovery. I hold my tongue when my online friends wonder how that could be. It brings me to a quote from former Association president Phil Roth, who said, “The biggest mistake a fundamental analyst makes is thinking a stock and a company are the same thing. The biggest mistake a technical analyst makes is thinking they are different.”

But wait! There’s more!

Let’s not forget that crude oil traded at negative numbers in April thanks to the destruction of demand in the pandemic and so much supply that there was literally no place to put it. And the government is flooding the market with so much liquidity that negative interest rates seem to be a given in the U.S., as they already are across Europe and the world. The Fed wants to buy junk bonds, for crying out loud!

But again, in a world where many businesses were mandated to close, that fortunately does not apply to most of us in the Association. Our businesses can exist in a no-touch world. And it is our responsibility to keep going, and to be thankful.

In this month’s issue, we are thankful for the time spent with several technicians who have passed away. Tony Tabell, the second Association president is memorialized by Ken Tower, who worked for him long ago. Kenneth Safian, a long-time member and contributor also left us, as did Jim Schmidt, publisher of Timer Digest.

The CMT Association's own Barbara Terry has a great story about the initiative between the CMT Association and the CFA Association in Minnesota to fight hunger.

Also in Minnesota, that Chapter held its first virtual meeting with speaker Mark Newton, CMT.

This month’s member interview is with Jim Erdmier, CMT, co-chair of the Chicago Chapter. We acknowledge members who were finalists and winners in their categories at the Technical Analyst (magazine) Awards. And, of course, we’ve got a few encouraging words from the CMT Association president and other Association news as we continue to mint fresh new CMTs.

Lockdown, schmockdown! The CMT Association is open for business!

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor
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            [post_content] => 
Letter from the Editor
This month’s newsletter contains a variety of information and we hope find some of it to be useful in your pursuit of profits in the markets.

As traders, we often get caught up in small stuff and forget about the big picture - knowing when news will move markets is critical to success. In Forex, economic data represents the fundamental inputs that traders should be aware of. We reprint an article from the Online Trading Academy web site describing some of the more important indicators which can drive stocks, bonds, and Forex prices.

In stocks, fundamentals are commonly thought of as ratios. Crestmont Research recently completed a report on the P/E ratio and their detailed study includes a chart which shows that P/E ratios have been range bound for decades. Enterprising technical analysts may consider applying indicators to this data to forecast long-term trends.

We also added a feature last month that allows you to prepare the newsletter for printing in its entirety with a single click. Please let us know if you have any suggestions for additional improvements.

Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
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Letter from the Editor
This month’s issue demonstrates the rich variety that exists within the field of technical analysis.

 	
Todd Campbell presents quantitative analysis showing stock market behavior after VIX extremes. This is an example of using sentiment as an input into the trading process and demonstrates the value of sentiment when applied as part of a long-term analysis.
 	
Kenneth G. Winans, CFA, CMT recently published his second book, Investment Atlas – Financial Maps to Investment Success which documents investment returns using richly detailed charts to place market returns into historical context. If you ever wondered how real estate has performed in France or Japan over the past fifty years, this book is for you. Along with other esoteric asset classes, Investment Atlas also shows stock and bond returns in detail for various historical events which can help those who realize history tends to repeat.
 	
George Schade, Jr., CMT, is certainly one of those who understands the importance of studying history. He returns to the pages of Technically Speaking with a biography of R. N. Elliott. George is a renowned expert in the history of technical analysis and his writings always offer valuable insights into the minds of the pioneers of technical analysis. Sir Isaac Newton once said, “If I have seen farther than others, it is because I was standing on the shoulders of giants.” George furthers our field by uncovering the all-too-often lost histories of the giants of technical analysis, making it possible for others to climb onto their shoulders.
 	
Mukul Pal uses cycle analysis to develop an analysis of what the markets may look like four years from now. It is interesting to consider how cycles are usually viewed as long-term tools but can be applied in the short-term as well. This would be application of Elliott’s work on the fractal nature of markets.
 	
Ashish Kyal applies traditional trendline and indicator analysis to the Indian stock market.

As always, we hope you find this issue of your newsletter to be useful. We also welcome your contributions and suggestions.

Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
Editor
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