Ashish Kyal, CMT

Ashish Kyal, is the Founder of Waves Strategy Advisors and Ashish Kyal Trading Gurukul.

He is the Author of Effective Trading in Financial Markets using Technical Analysis.  His articles have appeared in newsletters of CMT Association, International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA – London) Reuters, and Bloomberg and a research paper in Journal of the Society of Technical Analysts (STA). He is a frequent speaker on business channels like Zee Business, CNBC Awaaz, CNBC TV18, ET NOW, Bloomberg Quint, Rajya Sabha TV.  He is a regular columnist for Economic Times section of Navbharat Times and has been interviewed by Swiss Business Channel on Indian Economy. 

Ashish is known for his expertise on Inter-market analysis, Elliott wave, Neo wave, Time cycles and calling for major tops and bottoms on Nifty, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gold, Crude, Currency and much more time and again.  He has vast experience in Capital markets and has worked with leading Investment Banks Lehman Brothers, Nomura Holdings within Capital Markets division.

He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and member of CMT Association.  Ashish is an MBA and did his Bachelor of Engineering from Mumbai University.

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            [post_content] => The joke running around the Internet is that this 2020 Leap Year had 29 days in February, 300 days in March and five years in April. It is already a year of biblical proportions, with locusts swarming in Africa, the global plague of COVID-19, and then murder hornets arriving in Washington state. The foot of snow that fell in the Northeast on May 8 seemed mild, but we can just wonder if June is thinking, “hold my beer.”

Yes, it is a different world. Millions are out of work, yet the stock market is on the road to recovery. I hold my tongue when my online friends wonder how that could be. It brings me to a quote from former Association president Phil Roth, who said, “The biggest mistake a fundamental analyst makes is thinking a stock and a company are the same thing. The biggest mistake a technical analyst makes is thinking they are different.”

But wait! There’s more!

Let’s not forget that crude oil traded at negative numbers in April thanks to the destruction of demand in the pandemic and so much supply that there was literally no place to put it. And the government is flooding the market with so much liquidity that negative interest rates seem to be a given in the U.S., as they already are across Europe and the world. The Fed wants to buy junk bonds, for crying out loud!

But again, in a world where many businesses were mandated to close, that fortunately does not apply to most of us in the Association. Our businesses can exist in a no-touch world. And it is our responsibility to keep going, and to be thankful.

In this month’s issue, we are thankful for the time spent with several technicians who have passed away. Tony Tabell, the second Association president is memorialized by Ken Tower, who worked for him long ago. Kenneth Safian, a long-time member and contributor also left us, as did Jim Schmidt, publisher of Timer Digest.

The CMT Association's own Barbara Terry has a great story about the initiative between the CMT Association and the CFA Association in Minnesota to fight hunger.

Also in Minnesota, that Chapter held its first virtual meeting with speaker Mark Newton, CMT. 

This month’s member interview is with Jim Erdmier, CMT, co-chair of the Chicago Chapter. We acknowledge members who were finalists and winners in their categories at the Technical Analyst (magazine) Awards. And, of course, we’ve got a few encouraging words from the CMT Association president and other Association news as we continue to mint fresh new CMTs. 

Lockdown, schmockdown! The CMT Association is open for business!

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor
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Letter from the Editor
This month’s newsletter contains a variety of information and we hope find some of it to be useful in your pursuit of profits in the markets.

As traders, we often get caught up in small stuff and forget about the big picture - knowing when news will move markets is critical to success. In Forex, economic data represents the fundamental inputs that traders should be aware of. We reprint an article from the Online Trading Academy web site describing some of the more important indicators which can drive stocks, bonds, and Forex prices.

In stocks, fundamentals are commonly thought of as ratios. Crestmont Research recently completed a report on the P/E ratio and their detailed study includes a chart which shows that P/E ratios have been range bound for decades. Enterprising technical analysts may consider applying indicators to this data to forecast long-term trends.

We also added a feature last month that allows you to prepare the newsletter for printing in its entirety with a single click. Please let us know if you have any suggestions for additional improvements.

Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
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Letter from the Editor
This month’s issue demonstrates the rich variety that exists within the field of technical analysis.

 	
Todd Campbell presents quantitative analysis showing stock market behavior after VIX extremes. This is an example of using sentiment as an input into the trading process and demonstrates the value of sentiment when applied as part of a long-term analysis.
 	
Kenneth G. Winans, CFA, CMT recently published his second book, Investment Atlas – Financial Maps to Investment Success which documents investment returns using richly detailed charts to place market returns into historical context. If you ever wondered how real estate has performed in France or Japan over the past fifty years, this book is for you. Along with other esoteric asset classes, Investment Atlas also shows stock and bond returns in detail for various historical events which can help those who realize history tends to repeat.
 	
George Schade, Jr., CMT, is certainly one of those who understands the importance of studying history. He returns to the pages of Technically Speaking with a biography of R. N. Elliott. George is a renowned expert in the history of technical analysis and his writings always offer valuable insights into the minds of the pioneers of technical analysis. Sir Isaac Newton once said, “If I have seen farther than others, it is because I was standing on the shoulders of giants.” George furthers our field by uncovering the all-too-often lost histories of the giants of technical analysis, making it possible for others to climb onto their shoulders.
 	
Mukul Pal uses cycle analysis to develop an analysis of what the markets may look like four years from now. It is interesting to consider how cycles are usually viewed as long-term tools but can be applied in the short-term as well. This would be application of Elliott’s work on the fractal nature of markets.
 	
Ashish Kyal applies traditional trendline and indicator analysis to the Indian stock market.

As always, we hope you find this issue of your newsletter to be useful. We also welcome your contributions and suggestions.

Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
Editor
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