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Barbara Terry

Barbara Terry

Barbara Terry is the CMT Association’s volunteer coordinator, based in New York. She has close to 20 years of experience in large-scale project management and account management roles, and is an invaluable resource for the CMT Association’s event planning team. 

Barbara holds a Bachelor of Science degree focused in Business Administration and Management, General from the University of San Francisco.

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            [post_content] => Although we are headquartered in the U.S., we are a global organization. The economy is recovering here as vaccinations rise and COVID infections decline. However, in contrast, our colleagues elsewhere, especially in India, continue to face major health challenges. CMT President Scott Richter offers our support in his remarks this month.

In the markets, changes are brewing as commodities are soaring, technology stocks got smacked and cryptocurrencies have become the “spring break” of tradeables. Dogecoin? Really? I suppose our role is not to judge, but to analyze trends and patterns.

What members may have noticed is the lack of chapter meetings in recent months. With the Americas Summit in April and basic Zoom fatigue from working at home and home schooling, it is no wonder everyone needed a break. But fear not, the calendar is filling up again. Check out the “Learning and Events” link on the CMT Association home page.

This month, we feature an article by Arthur Hill and a spin on trend following systems. It is elegant in its simplicity and I highly recommend reading it. And for good measure, Arthur is also this month’s member interview.

Other features include the announcement of this month’s Fill the Gap podcast with Frank Teixeira, The Mother of all Sector Rotation Strategies written by Erez Katz, membership news and TA award acknowledgements. We also say goodbye to Jim Forte, from the TSAAF in San Francisco. Also lost in recent days is the legend Welles Wilder, who created many of the studies we all use today. Some of you may have heard of him.

Good luck trading, and stay safe.

Michael Kahn, CMT

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            [post_content] => Well gang, we made it. The New Year is here and 2020 is in the rear-view mirror. I hope we all learned something, and that includes something about market behavior.

Although the stock market ended at all-time highs, it was a rather lackluster December with not much in the way of enthusiasm. Of course, we can come up with all sorts of excuses, such as politics, pandemics (not to make light of it) and payments (stimulus, or lack thereof). This did not matter, as Santa came a-calling and stocks came out of the gate at full gallop. Bitcoin at $42,000. Nothing to see here, bubbleheads. Maybe a breakout in bond yields might get you worried? Move along. How about Tesla? Who cares, as long as the Russell is outperforming?

You can take away what you like from all of that. Most of us, of course, will let the charts tell us when something is changing.

The January edition of Technically Speaking is Association-centric, with news of and about our membership and activities. Topping the list is the inaugural edition of our new official podcast, Fill the Gap, featuring first Association president Bob Farrell. We even have an old photo of Bob in the Photo Archive this month.

Also, read about the Academic Partner Program, as we expand the presence and teaching of technical analysis at the university level. And don’t forget, nominations for new Directors of the Association are now open. This is a good time to network and find out who can help steer the Association for the next few years.

This month’s member interview is with Jeff Weiss, CMT, who many members know as an energetic speaker and educator, not to mention a pretty good technician. We’ve got the regular Association news, including some career opportunities, a chapter speaker summary and announcement of the upcoming Weath365 Summit, where several of our members are speaking and all members are welcome at no cost.

Don’t forget, we are always looking for contributed articles and you can repurpose something you’ve already written. Just limit it to education, market environment or the business of being a technician. Market forecasts do not age well. We are always here at editor@cmtassociation.org.

Michael Kahn, CMT

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            [post_content] => The summer doldrums are upon us but given the slowdown in economic activity, it is hard to tell the difference. The pandemic remains topic one, while politics is creeping higher up the list. How will stocks do if Red wins? Or if Blue wins? Or if the rapper is actually serious?

As technical analysts, fortunately we don’t have to worry too much about all that. The market will sniff it out for us and it will be our job to read the signals it provides.

How have you all been coping with the socially distanced, everybody has cooties, world? We’d like to know so send in a few notes to us here at editor@cmtassociation.com. What are your clients doing differently? What are their views? Are you working from home? How has your business changed? And what can the Association do to help you?

Our President, Scott Richter, offers up some resources in his note within. However, due to last minute editing issues, we are without a feature article this month. Perhaps you, dear member, would like to submit something? As long as it is not a sales pitch or a black box, we’d love to read about an analysis or technique you use.

Have you read a good book on trading or analysis? Why not send in a quick half-page review?

What about software? Are you using something that is really helpful or unique? Tell us about it.

Otherwise, we’ve got Association news inside here, reviews of the June NY, Northern Ohio and India virtual chapter meetings and our member interview with Robert Peirce. Bob is retired now after a long career but still offers up his excellent long-term analysis to various chat rooms. We also have an exciting update on some new additions to our Academic Partner Program.

Don’t let the new world order get you down! And don’t let that be an excuse not to participate in your Association.

Michael Kahn, CMT

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            [post_content] => As I write this, the Nasdaq has completely erased its pandemic drop and most everything else looks pretty good. Overbought, but better than any of the so-called economists had predicted.

There is one thing we technicians need to watch and that is trying to put the market’s action since February in a neat little box. I am not saying that this time is different – because it never is different – but that really only applies to the forces that govern free markets. What happened was entirely created by the governments around the world. Don’t get me wrong – with the information we had at the time, it seemed like the right move.

In other words, to avoid being political, it was not the free market that caused the market to fall. We did not see breadth divergences that tipped off the arrival of the bear. We did not see any “nifty fifty” behavior where the entire market’s gain was due to a handful of stocks (don’t debate me on this; I know the extended FANG bunch was responsible for large percentages). The yield curve was right again. And money was still flowing - liquidity is bullish.

What we had were businesses being forced to close and people getting laid off through no fault of the companies for which they worked. But that is all starting to reverse, as we knew it would.

So why, then, should we be able to look at a chart pattern and expect it to predict as similar patterns created by true market forces? No, I am not saying supply and demand don’t work – they do. What troubles me is looking at trendlines and support and resistance levels and hoping they will work in the same way as they would during “normal” volatility, free market times.

Use your tools. Just remember the environment we are all in, and give them a little slack.

This month, we are light on content from chapters and committees, thanks to the lockdown, although the Minnesota Chapter remained quite active. However, you will see that the Association is implementing virtual meetings, which means that any member can attend any chapter meeting. That is a good idea!

This month’s interview is with Theodore Krintas, co-chair of the Hellenic Chapter in Greece. We’ve got an article connecting seasonality with the pandemic, which is very interesting but a little off of our technical analysis mission. And we also have to say goodbye to another long-time member and CMT contributor, Dick Dickson, who passed away suddenly on June 1.

Don't forget to check out the new educational content in the video archives with links at the bottom of this edition.

We hope you are all coping with the lockdown and the slow reopening. Be safe.
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            [post_content] => The joke running around the Internet is that this 2020 Leap Year had 29 days in February, 300 days in March and five years in April. It is already a year of biblical proportions, with locusts swarming in Africa, the global plague of COVID-19, and then murder hornets arriving in Washington state. The foot of snow that fell in the Northeast on May 8 seemed mild, but we can just wonder if June is thinking, “hold my beer.”

Yes, it is a different world. Millions are out of work, yet the stock market is on the road to recovery. I hold my tongue when my online friends wonder how that could be. It brings me to a quote from former Association president Phil Roth, who said, “The biggest mistake a fundamental analyst makes is thinking a stock and a company are the same thing. The biggest mistake a technical analyst makes is thinking they are different.”

But wait! There’s more!

Let’s not forget that crude oil traded at negative numbers in April thanks to the destruction of demand in the pandemic and so much supply that there was literally no place to put it. And the government is flooding the market with so much liquidity that negative interest rates seem to be a given in the U.S., as they already are across Europe and the world. The Fed wants to buy junk bonds, for crying out loud!

But again, in a world where many businesses were mandated to close, that fortunately does not apply to most of us in the Association. Our businesses can exist in a no-touch world. And it is our responsibility to keep going, and to be thankful.

In this month’s issue, we are thankful for the time spent with several technicians who have passed away. Tony Tabell, the second Association president is memorialized by Ken Tower, who worked for him long ago. Kenneth Safian, a long-time member and contributor also left us, as did Jim Schmidt, publisher of Timer Digest.

The CMT Association's own Barbara Terry has a great story about the initiative between the CMT Association and the CFA Association in Minnesota to fight hunger.

Also in Minnesota, that Chapter held its first virtual meeting with speaker Mark Newton, CMT.

This month’s member interview is with Jim Erdmier, CMT, co-chair of the Chicago Chapter. We acknowledge members who were finalists and winners in their categories at the Technical Analyst (magazine) Awards. And, of course, we’ve got a few encouraging words from the CMT Association president and other Association news as we continue to mint fresh new CMTs.

Lockdown, schmockdown! The CMT Association is open for business!

Michael Kahn, CMT

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