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Bruce Kamich, CMT

Bruce Kamich, CMT

Bruce M. Kamich, who has held the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation since 1992, is a technical analyst for TheStreet.com and a two-time past president of the CMT Association. He serves as an advisor for the Technical Analysis Educational Foundation, of which he is also a former president, and teaches a course on technical analysis at Baruch College.

Bruce has over 35 years of financial industry experience, including equities, fixed income, and commodities, and was previously a Vice President at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, where he worked under Louise Yamada for a time.

Before joining the firm, Bruce was a financial journalist with Reuters and an adjunct professor of finance at Rutgers University where he taught technical analysis. In the 1980s and 1990s, traders around the world in the fixed income markets read his market commentaries and forecasts on Reuters and Bloomberg, when he co-managed the online advisory services of MoneyWatch and YieldWatch, covering the US treasury market and global bonds.

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            [post_content] => They say March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb. Well, 2018 came in like a lion and seems to have gone out like a lion, too. Check out this chart of the Dow’s daily true range going back to early 2016. Something is clearly different in 2018.



 

If there is one thing we can say about the markets, it’s that they're like a box of chocolates. Okay - Forrest Gump, CMT, might have said that.

As we reach our stride with the new newsletter format, we still need your feedback. What do you like? What would you like to see? Drop us a line at editor@CMTAssociation.org. And we could still use some volunteers to help with book, software and seminar reviews.

This month’s member interview is with two-time former past President Bruce Kamich. We’ve got the third, and final, installment of the reboot of Mark Eidem, CMT, CFA’s series on “Lessons from Dead Pilots,” again, which gives a fascinating comparison with traders.

And I did an interview with David Aferiat with a look at how TradeIdeas sees artificial intelligence coming to money management and trading. Don’t worry, you won’t be replaced (at least not yet).

Of course, there is plenty of Association and chapter news, plus a review by Tyler Wood of the recent ETF Global Conference.

Hope your holidays were relaxing, and may your New Year be your best yet!

Michael Kahn, CMT
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

This year’s Annual Symposium will focus on the fusion of technical analysis with fundamental valuation, behavioral finance, macroeconomics and quantitative methods. The work of three of the scheduled speakers is included in this month’s newsletter. Steven Leuthold explains his investment strategy for the next year and readers can ask him for an update in April at the Symposium. Steve is the only individual who has received the Charles H. Dow Award from the MTA and the Graham and Dodd Scroll Award from the CFA Institute. Dr. Ben Hunt relies on game theory to understand the markets and the economy. Dr. Tucker Balch, a featured speaker, presents the results of research into buying and selling by company insiders that he completed with Scott Strong. Insider trading information is a form of sentiment analysis that technical analysts have used for many years. We also have several other articles this month including Tom McClellan’s look at VIX ETNs and John Bougearel’s review of the current state of the market. Tom presents facts to demonstrate why long-term investors should avoid an ETN that is designed specifically for short-term traders. John presents some interesting chart patterns and provides a forecast based on technicals and fundamentals. He includes an overview of the macroeconomic environment that exists now and at several key turning points in the market. Please send any feedback or work you’d like to share through the newsletter to editor@mta.org. Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, February 2014 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-february-2014 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:31:39 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:31:39 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=45187 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 378125 [post_id] => 45187 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:3:"962";i:1;s:5:"43131";} ) [2] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 46561 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2012-05-15 12:00:47 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-05-15 16:00:47 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

As an organization, the MTA has a strong sense of history. One of the ways the MTA chronicles the history of technical analysis and the organization is through its Annual Awards program. Individuals from the past who have made contributions to the field are honored at the Annual Symposium. This year, six individuals were commended for their work and we present small summaries of their accomplishments. We also include history in this newsletter as often as possible. This month, we conclude with a summary of the Darvas Box, a trading technique developed by Nicolas Darvas. Although better known as a dancer than a market analyst, Darvas wrote a New York Times Best Seller in the late 1950s that highlighted the value of technical analysis to the public. Technicians working with screening software can easily automate his approach instead of relying on weekly issues of Barron’s as Darvas did more than fifty years ago. This issue also offers an extract of a recent academic paper that discusses some of the topics that are explained poorly in finance textbooks. This material could help some who are trying to explain the benefits of technical analysis to academics. Beta and the equity risk premium may be ill defined, yet cornerstones of pricing theories. Technical analysis offers an adaptive approach to investment theory and could be more useful in real-world trading than concepts like that. As always, we enjoy learning what you think about Technically Speaking. Please email us at editor@mta.org. Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2012 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-may-2012 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:35:17 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:35:17 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=46561 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 399391 [post_id] => 46561 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_1_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:3:"962";} ) [3] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 46705 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2012-02-15 12:00:26 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-02-15 17:00:26 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

This month we are providing a detailed overview of several interesting techniques. Scott Hathaway introduces pentagonal analysis with detailed examples and a complete explanation of how you could apply the ideas to any chart. Manuel Amunategui, CMT, offers very specific trading strategies that can be applied to help manage risk. James Brodie, CMT, describes the techniques he applies to trade a hedge fund. We also feature an interview with Esther de S.G. Elkaïm, CMT. These interviews are highlighting the diversity of technical analysis opportunities and hopefully showing the possibilities for those considering a career in technical analysis. Over the past months, the MTA has been searching for the right person to help bring the CMT program to the next level. After a thorough process, Robert Johnson, Ph.D., CFA, CAIA, was selected as Director, CMT Studies. Dr. Johnson will focus on enhancing the professionalism of the CMT Program and will eventually develop a customized curriculum for our candidates. In next month’s newsletter, we’ll have an interview with Dr. Johnson and get his first thoughts on the program. As always, we hope you’ll tell us what you think about Technically Speaking by sending an email to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, February 2012 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-february-2012 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-25 13:21:25 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 17:21:25 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=46705 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 401723 [post_id] => 46705 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:3:"962";} ) [4] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 46756 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2012-01-15 12:00:23 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-01-15 17:00:23 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

We are starting the New Year for the newsletter by offering you a variety of topics. Hopefully we are reflecting the wide variety of work members of the MTA are doing in the real world. Celebrating the New Year involves a number of traditions and applying technical analysis is also rooted in a number of traditional tools, many of which are updated and applied in unique ways. We feature the work of Eric Leake and John Kosar, CMT, showing how they are applying traditional tools to create valuable forecasts. Jeb Handwerger applies these types of tools to a market that isn’t widely followed, rare earth metals, but is in the news quite frequently. Ken Safian has long been applying traditional tools in an untraditional way to economic data in addition to following the stock markets with a technical-based approach. We also highlight a new book from Christopher Grafton, CMT, which explains a traditional tool, cycles, in a new way. Please let us know what you are doing and allow us to share your application of the tools of technical analysis to the readers of Technically Speaking by sending an email to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, January 2012 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-january-2012 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-25 13:21:33 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 17:21:33 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=46756 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 402414 [post_id] => 46756 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_7_contributor [meta_value] => a:3:{i:0;s:4:"2390";i:1;s:3:"904";i:2;s:3:"962";} ) [5] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47060 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-11-15 12:00:02 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-11-15 17:00:02 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Our Ethics Corner feature has generated some feedback, and this month we are revisiting the first case study we presented. As expected, there is room for differences of opinion on ethics questions. In part, the growth of international membership in the MTA should guarantee some discussion on ethics. Laws differ among countries and cultural differences are greater than many assume. Perhaps the only undeniable truth in ethics is that people are not all alike. Different people hold different opinions, which is the underlying reason we have a market to trade. While cultural differences must be considered in any situation, the Standards defined in the MTA Code of Ethics are mandatory for all members and affiliates. While there may be a less strict requirement defined in local laws at times, the Code of Ethics requires that the stricter rules of the Code must be the guide. Obviously if the law is stricter than the Code of Ethics, the Code does not offer an excuse for breaking the law. We look forward to continuing discussions on ethics. It is important to our profession to hear as many opinions as possible. By understanding why some scenarios present “grey zones” we can make professional ethics stronger. Please send any comments to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-november-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-25 13:23:13 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 17:23:13 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47060 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 406090 [post_id] => 47060 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:3:"962";} ) [6] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47100 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-10-15 12:00:22 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-10-15 16:00:22 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

The MTA Educational Foundation (MTAEF) will be cosponsoring an event marking the 160th anniversary of the birth of Charles Dow. On November 3, there will be a celebration at the Museum of American Finance. You can learn more at http://go.mta.org/117 Among the speakers will be Robert W. Colby, CMT. We have included an article he wrote several years ago about Dow Theory in this month’s newsletter. It is the first of several articles we are offering on the revered technical tool in this month’s Technically Speaking. Paul Shread, CMT, offers a more detailed look at several aspects of the Theory. We are also offering highlights of a presentation that Ralph Acampora, CMT, made in May 2009 on the Dow Theory. Ralph will be the Master of Ceremonies at the event. We are continuing our efforts to provide members and affiliates with more information about ethics, not because that is a problem area within our organization but because it is what helps define us as professionals. Like the Dow Theory, the MTA’s Code of Ethics has also proven to be timeless. We would appreciate any suggestions you have on topics to cover in upcoming Ethics Corner articles. Please send them to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-october-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-25 13:23:08 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 17:23:08 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47100 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 407227 [post_id] => 47100 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:3:"962";} ) [7] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47185 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-07-15 12:00:45 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-07-15 16:00:45 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

This issue contains a few more summaries of MTA Symposium speaker presentations. There were two other presentations that no one should miss, but are in some ways too important to offer in summary form. The Technician’s Technician Panel brought together the technical analysts employed by the largest firms. Jordan Kotick, CMT, Managing Director and Head of Technical Trading Strategy for Barclays Capital, led the discussion and shared the stage with: While their market views and favorite techniques differ, all of these esteemed analysts share one opinion. They agreed that technical analysis is in a bull market and opportunities are more plentiful than ever in this field. Always popular, the Market Forecast Panel brings several distinguished technicians together to discuss what they see in the markets and how they think the future will unfold. Rather than trying to present the views of Ralph Acampora, Dr. Hank Pruden, Ken Tower and Chris Cady into simple bullish or bearish calls, the video of this discussion should be watched in full. What is most important is the thought process that some of the greatest minds in technical analysis apply to formulate their opinions. Each uses a different approach, and each has attained a great deal of success with their technique. As we work on future issues, we would like to hear what is important to you, our readers. Please let me know what you’d like to see in upcoming issues. The MTA Directory lists my phone number, or email editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-july-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-10 21:52:44 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-11 01:52:44 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47185 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 409269 [post_id] => 47185 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_3_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:3:"962";} ) [8] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47901 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2009-12-15 12:00:15 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-12-15 17:00:15 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

This month, we searched the internet to find interesting and useful web sites that could help our members profit in the markets. There are a number of very good web sites out there, but most will not help traders unless they are willing to think outside the box. Economists seem to have taken to blogging more than many other professions, and while their observations are interesting, we thought that almost all of them were too far from technical analysis to be included in this short review. But you may certainly have more insights into their work and we’d like to hear about it if you do. That leads to an interesting question – what should technical analysis include? We’d very much like to hear some of your thoughts on that subject and would be glad to include any ideas you have as letters to the editor. One interesting application of technical analysis we did find was the work of Jim Otar, CMT, CFP. Jim extends his research to retirement planning. It demonstrates the possibilities for skilled technicians, and in a challenging employment environment, research like this could be the element that leads to that dream job. For those wishing to extend the field of technical analysis and seeking a place to publish, consider Technically Speaking. We’re ready to review anything related to our field. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2009 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-december-2009 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-20 16:15:15 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-20 20:15:15 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47901 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 422387 [post_id] => 47901 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:3:"962";} ) [9] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47919 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2009-11-15 12:00:25 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-11-15 17:00:25 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

We are again presenting only a few articles in this month’s newsletter. MTA members are among the leading technicians doing great research and we are featuring a few samples of the work being done. In coming months, we hope to continue highlighting this type of original work. As always, if you’d like to share your work with your colleagues, please send it to us at editor@mta.org. In “An Interesting Application of Neural Nets,” we highlight how Parallax Financial Research is using neural networks to develop a complete investment methodology. Their combination of fundamental and technical inputs has resulted in a long-term winning strategy. Robin Carpenter presents a detailed analysis and thought-provoking piece on VIX, challenging the standard interpretation of this widely used indicator. Short-term traders will be interested in “Candlestick Kicker Signal = Powerful Profits” by Stephen W. Bigalow. While candlesticks are widely used, this article offers a fresh insight into the patterns. “Individual Monthly Charts for The 1924 to 1935 Period” is a partial reprint of a Safian Investment Research piece. The collection of charts and brief commentary are well worth reading for anyone trading today’s markets. Mark Twain is believed to have said, “History doesn't repeat itself - at best it sometimes rhymes.” Traders need to study history so that they can benefit from the repetitive patterns often found in the market, and Safian’s piece is a valuable collection of market history. We hope you find this collection of papers to be useful. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2009 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-november-2009 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-20 17:00:34 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-20 21:00:34 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47919 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 423177 [post_id] => 47919 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:3:"962";} ) [10] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48091 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2009-04-15 12:00:32 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-04-15 16:00:32 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

This month’s newsletter contains a variety of information and we hope find some of it to be useful in your pursuit of profits in the markets. As traders, we often get caught up in small stuff and forget about the big picture - knowing when news will move markets is critical to success. In Forex, economic data represents the fundamental inputs that traders should be aware of. We reprint an article from the Online Trading Academy web site describing some of the more important indicators which can drive stocks, bonds, and Forex prices. In stocks, fundamentals are commonly thought of as ratios. Crestmont Research recently completed a report on the P/E ratio and their detailed study includes a chart which shows that P/E ratios have been range bound for decades. Enterprising technical analysts may consider applying indicators to this data to forecast long-term trends. We also added a feature last month that allows you to prepare the newsletter for printing in its entirety with a single click. Please let us know if you have any suggestions for additional improvements. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, April 2009 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-april-2009 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-21 17:01:56 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-21 21:01:56 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48091 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 427429 [post_id] => 48091 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_8_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:3:"962";} ) [11] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 52438 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2005-05-15 12:00:25 [post_date_gmt] => 2005-05-15 16:00:25 [post_content] =>

From the Editor’s Desk

This month’s issue of Technically Speaking can be thought of as a supplement to the Education Seminar 2005 being held in New York. All of the articles are related to presentation being given at that event. For those unable to attend the Seminar, the articles should provide useful trading ideas. To contribute articles for possible publication in a future issue of this newsletter, please send your ideas to editor@mta.org. Cordially, Mike Carr, CMT Technically Speaking Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, May, 2005 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-may-2005 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-13 14:54:21 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-13 18:54:21 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=52438 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 545926 [post_id] => 52438 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_6_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:3:"962";} ) )

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