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Cesar Alvarez

Cesar Alvarez

For the last six years, Cesar Alvaraz has written for his popular quant blog, Alvarez Quant Trading helping traders learn about the markets. He spent nine years as the Director of Research for Connors Research and TradingMarkets.com. Numerous strategies he created have been successfully used by investors and fund managers in the United States and internationally. Cesar has been testing trading ideas and trading stocks since 2001. Cesar has given trading presentations and training both over the web and in person to hundreds of traders.

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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

In recent issues, we have been highlighting content from the Annual Symposium. As I noted last month, “That meeting lasts just a few days but it truly does provide months’ worth of ideas for attendees.” In this month’s issue of Technically Speaking we highlight how local Chapter meetings can also provide ideas to improve your analysis.  The Denver Chapter recently hosted a meeting on back testing and the discussion included best practices related to data. A summary of that presentation kicks off this month’s issue. In researching this topic further, I discovered the value of using data free from pre-inclusion bias. Testing by Cesar Alvarez is included in this issue to quantify that problem. As Cesar notes, “People often write about systems they have developed using the current Nasdaq 100 or S&P500 stocks and have tested back for 5 to 10 years. Looking at this table shows that one should completely ignore those results. The difference between the two results is scary. Using the current list would make one think that they had a great system but actuality it was much worse.”  Histest results are included in the article. This month’s also issue also includes some quantified data about the best time of day to trade ETFs along with some articles making a convincing bearish case for U.S. stocks. For those wondering where to turn in a bear market, the answer could be in preferred stocks as data from Global Financial Data shows in another article.  We hope you find some valuable information in this month’s magazine.  Please send any comments on Technically Speaking to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2015 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-october-2015 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:21:15 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:21:15 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=43959 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 353548 [post_id] => 43959 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_1_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:5:"36576";} ) [1] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 44248 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2015-05-15 12:00:41 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-05-15 16:00:41 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Ethics is the lead story in this month’s magazine. The MTA is adopting a large body of knowledge related to all areas of finance through a licensing agreement with the CFA Institute. All finance professionals, whether they analyze fundamental, quantitative or technical data, share common goals (finding profitable opportunities) and share a common operating environment. Given all of the commonalities, it’s not surprising we share the same ethical requirements. This new body of knowledge will not require members of the MTA to change anything they do professionally. The original MTA Code of Ethics was comprehensive and covered all of the important standards of professional behavior. The shortcoming was a lack of case studies and examples of how to apply the Code. This licensing agreement makes all of the CFAI’s Code and Standards developed over several decades available to MTA members. For CMT candidates, this licensing agreement provides clear readings which will make studying for the exam a more efficient process. In short, there are no changes required of MTA members to meet the requirements of the new Code and Standards. One benefit is that there are now examples of how to apply ethics in everyday situations. Another benefit is the clear material that CMT candidates will have to study ethics so that there will be no surprises on the exam related to ethics. In short, we have found a risk-free opportunity to partner with the CFA Institute and we are excited to begin the next stage of the MTA’s growth. We also have articles related to the tools technicians use to analyze the markets and the techniques they apply to find profitable trading opportunities. As always, we welcome your feedback on what you would like to see in future issues of Technically Speaking. Please let us know by emailing us at editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2015 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-may-2015 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:31:41 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:31:41 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44248 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 360542 [post_id] => 44248 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_12_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:5:"36576";} ) [2] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 45949 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2013-06-15 12:00:46 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-06-15 16:00:46 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

We focus on the practical in this month’s newsletter. From trading psychology to trading tools and trading strategies, we have tried to provide you with new ideas that you can apply in the slow summer market. Of course, the slow summer market is probably a myth but we all need to find time to explore ideas and tools that might help us become better at what we do. Trading seems to be the point where theory meets practice in technical analysis. Hopefully you will find the techniques and tools we highlight to be useful. Although trading is often associated with short-term analysis, many traders analyze long-term data. In the long-term, stocks can move up or down just as they do in the short-term. SRC Stock Charts offer a long-term perspective on markets and we conclude this issue with a chart of Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index. The Nikkei ended May with a one-week loss of 15% but is up about 50% in the last year. Shortterm volatility can mask the relentless down trend that defines that market. Over the past 25 years, the Nikkei has lost an average of 2.8% a year. Please email us with suggestions for other long-term charts to highlight the ups and downs of trading for a living. We can be reached at editor@mta.org. Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, June 2013 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-june-2013 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:34:20 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:34:20 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=45949 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 391284 [post_id] => 45949 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_6_contributor [meta_value] => a:3:{i:0;s:4:"2494";i:1;s:5:"36576";i:2;s:4:"6104";} ) [3] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47997 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2009-08-15 12:00:16 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-08-15 16:00:16 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

Trading and getting involved in the MTA are the focus of this month's newsletter. Dan Zanger is a short-term trader with an enviable record of success. Ajay Jani offers insights into his thinking, and then we reprint what Dan considers to be among his most important rules. We also review a new book by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez from TradingMarkets.com. Short-term trading can offer high potential profits, but these articles also address the risk which is inseparable from trading. We also have news from the MTA Educational Foundation and the Journal Committee. The MTA is constantly advancing into academia and these initiatives are at the forefront of that march. This will add value to your membership and bring added prestige to the CMT designation by improving the acceptance of technical analysis within the investment community. Please let us know what you think of the newsletter, and how we can improve this member benefit for you. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, August 2009 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-august-2009 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-20 20:17:59 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-21 00:17:59 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47997 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 424697 [post_id] => 47997 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:3:{i:0;s:4:"2494";i:1;s:5:"36576";i:2;s:4:"7251";} ) [4] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48120 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2009-03-15 12:00:58 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-03-15 16:00:58 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

In this issue of Technically Speaking, we provide a great deal of information on market breadth. An interview with well known technician Dick Arms provides insight into the work and current thinking of an industry legend. Several articles detail a small part of the work of Dr. Humphrey Lloyd, unknown to the majority of technicians. Although trained as a pathologist, he has written widely on technical analysis and has developed unique and useful indicators. In learning about Dr. Lloyd’s work, I personally was struck by the similarity to the life of a technician who came to the field late in life but produced more than many others who spend their whole lives researching market action – Arthur A. Merrill, CMT. Both enjoyed great success in their original profession. Both brought the skills they employed in that profession to the markets. Both men were prolific authors, sharing their knowledge with all who wished to learn. But the most defining characteristic of both is that they can best be described as “gentlemen.” This is an adjective that few aspire to in the current environment. Wall Street is more associated with greed than anything else today. But there are still gentlemen and gentlewomen in our field, and I strongly urge the young technicians to reach out to them and learn about technical analysis, and life, from these examples of the life well lived. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, March 2009 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-march-2009 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-21 17:59:42 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-21 21:59:42 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48120 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 428171 [post_id] => 48120 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_7_contributor [meta_value] => a:3:{i:0;s:4:"2494";i:1;s:5:"36576";i:2;s:4:"7251";} ) )

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