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Dr. C. Daniel Miller

Dr. C. Daniel Miller

Dr. C. Daniel Miller is a freelance consultant on the business of independent publishing, copyright clearance and compliance, management of copyright permissions acquisition projects, project management of independent publishing, marketing and distribution of publications, and co-author and publisher of the award-winning reference work Copyright Clearance for Creatives. Dan also conducts presentations and workshops on copyright compliance and on business aspects of independent publishing.

He has served as board member and president of the Colorado Independent Publishers Association. He has been a technology consultant to architects to design computer and telecommunications infrastructures. He was the founding president of the Center for Educational Technologies; the executive director of NASA’s Classroom of the Future; a university professor and university department chair; an educational researcher, a K-12 classroom teacher, and a US Air Force radar technician.

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            [post_date] => 2019-07-07 07:41:07
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            [post_content] => We are still talking about trade battles with China and an arguably inverted yield curve. Yes, there are other perennial thorns in the paw (Iran and North Korea) but they don’t have much market moving history. As June ended, we got a trade battle truce and the stock market soared. Imagine what will happen if something actually gets done!

I still have a problem with calling the yield curve inverted, as most of it is upward sloping. Only the three-month bill is out of whack as I write this on July 1 and that is rather tied to the Fed. Will they cut, or won’t they? Before the trade truce, fed funds trading had a rate cut for a certainty for this month. Now? Maybe not so certain.

What I can see that is problematic is that the entire curve shifted lower compared to a month ago. And a quick scan of some global debt shows a lot of fractional, and even negative, benchmark yields. All that cannot be good.

Yet gold is backing down to test its breakout. Again, I am writing on July 1 so you all will know how that went.

Bitcoin. Again. Technical analysts’ paradise, investors’ nightmare. When the prices for retro Air Jordans on the StockX sneaker exchange are more stable than the “currency of the future,” I like to watch from afar. The lyrics of Bob Dylan dance in my head – “When will they ever learn? When will they ev-er learn?”

This month, we have an interesting white paper excerpt from TrendSpider about their new raindrop charts. It attempts to give the TA a feeling for how the day or hour developed, similar to market profile, although chartable like candles. However, volume is incorporated as in a VWAP.

This month’s member interview is Les Williams, CMT, who has been active in the association for many years and in many roles. My own CMT certificate was signed by him when he was the Chair of the Admissions committee.

And the Millers are back with the fourth and final installment of their series on copyrights. Again, this is an important topic for anyone who publishes books, newsletters and even blogs.

We've got three Chapter speaker reviews from Atlanta, Denver and Minnesota. Our regular association member news. And a little career advice for newbies urging everyone to write, write, write, no matter how green you may be.

Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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            [post_content] => I know we Americans tend to have a self-centered view of things, but the U.S. market has outperformed most of the world for the past two years. Of course, there are some exceptions, notably in Australia, India and Saudi Arabia. Curiously, Greece and Russia appear to have woken up recently.

Anyway, the point of this build-up is to say that May was one of the worst months in quite some time, only eclipsed by December 2018 in terms of net loss, based on the S&P 500 (October 2018 was about the same as May). The lingering trade battle with China and a threat towards Mexico got plenty of headlines. Too bad stiff resistance at 2935-2950 was not part of all the news that was fit to print.

The yield curve got a lot scarier looking, and as I write this, bill yield is higher than benchmark 10-year yield (and the mythical 20-year yield). But is that an official inversion?  Take out bills and the rest is still upward-sloping. And the economy and markets are backing the Fed into a rate-cutting corner.

And for you stock jockeys, have you noticed a resurgence in grains lately? There’s always a bull market somewhere (not a forecast!).

In the newsletter this month, we continue with the regular features, including part 3 of Joyce and Daniel Miller’s lesson on copyrights. Yes, it can be a dry topic, but if you publish anything - from newsletters to full books - you should at least be aware of this stuff. The authors give you more than most of us will ever need, but I urge everyone to give the material at least a skim.

This month’s member interview is with Greg Schnell of StockCharts.com. His story could be any one of ours. And we’ve got a reprint of Prof. Richard Lehman’s article on investment decision making. A little psychology, a little behavioral finance.

And, of course, the news from around the Association with chapter meeting speaker reviews, CMT updates and even a few job openings.

If you’ve got an analysis technique you’d like to share with the membership, why not put it on cyber paper and send it in. We’d love to publish articles about how members do their jobs.

Michael Kahn, Editor
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            [post_content] => Just when everyone pooh-poohs our beloved “Sell in May” saw, it somehow starts to work. Or maybe it was just that the S&P 500 hit resistance on waning momentum? Hmm. I, for one, do not blame a tweet. And I also don’t expect this series of coincidences to dictate my summer outlook. By the way, as I write this, the Dow is right where it was when it (and the Spoo) scored their golden crosses in late March.

The truth is that the markets have changed since some of our indicators were created or discovered, and we have to change with them.  That’s why it is so important to keep learning. And keep respecting your “stops” on indicators that no longer produce results.

What better place to learn that at the CMT Association annual symposium? This year’s is in the books, but even if you were unable to attend, you’ll be able to get a few insights from the presenters. We’ve got summaries of several of them in this newsletter edition.

If you were there and took notes, we’d love to get a few paragraphs of individual presentations or the seminar as a whole. Send them to me at editor@cmtassociation.org.

Also in this issue is our series of member interviews, this month with John Kosar, CMT, of Asbury Research. Joyce and Dr. Daniel Miller are back with part two of their series on copyrights. This is an important topic for any of us that publish any works, from books to reports to blogs.

We also pay tribute to long-time member Stephen Cox, CMT, who passed away this month. He was instrumental in establishing the Dow Award.

And, of course, we’ve got some member news, from new CMTs to available resources.

- Michael Kahn, Editor
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            [post_content] => Thanks to the constraints of newsletter publishing and the lack of time travel resources available, this edition of Technically Speaking was put to bed before the festivities of the 46th Annual Symposium, earlier this month. While we could not magically forecast what the speakers would say, rest assured we will have plenty of information and reviews in the next edition. If you haven't taken the post-Symposium survey yet, you can do that here.

The funny thing about time is that this time is never different. While we usually apply that to analysis and the behavior of crowds, we are still applying it to the news of the day. Brexit was supposed to happen March 29, but it was delayed and still they argue over what it will look like. Trade with China is still up in the air. The Mueller report is finally out, and while we don’t know all the details inside, everyone still clings to their previous views.

What else is not different? Headlines! The three-month Treasury yield ticked above the 10-year yield and suddenly the media was in a panic over the curve inversion. Funny, the 2-year is still below the 10-year and that seems more important to me, especially now that the Fed said it’s done raising rates for now.

All of that hides the fact that the domestic stock market continued to claw its way back towards last year's highs. That’s pretty good for a geriatric bull market, yes? If you want to argue whether the bull started in 2008 or 2015 or some resistance breakout, be my guest. We don’t get paid to label things, only to make money.

Vincent Randazzo, CMT, from Lowry’s returns with another article and one indication why the current rally is not done yet.

And on a more mundane, although really important, topic, George Schade, CMT, introduced us to publishing and copyright specialists Joyce and Daniel Miller. The Millers offer part one in a series of articles walking us through the details of staying on the right side of the law. Whether you write books, newsletters or just post to your blog, this is important stuff to know.

I’ve found another of my vintage articles, explaining how to be a good interviewee on financial TV. This is a loose part 2 to last month’s article talking about dealing with the media. If you want to get invited back for another round of talks, you need to know this stuff.

And this month’s member interview is with Richard Dickson, also from Lowry’s. One more in a long, long, long list of professionals who started with the analysis herd and then saw the light that is technical analysis.

We also have a brief recap of those who received Association honors at the Symposium. They are listed within. And finally, we'll top this edition off with the usual news about the goings on around the Association.
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