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Ian McMillan, CMT

Ian McMillan, CMT

Ian McMillan is a Market Technician at Client First Tax & Wealth Advisors.  Prior to his role at Client First Tax and Wealth Advisors, Ian was a Senior Analyst based out of the Washington DC area.  Ian has been in the wealth management/RIA arena for 11 years.   He spends a portion of his time consulting with other firms in the area as to how they can best incorporate Technical Analysis into their own practices and portfolio management strategies.

Ian is a regular contributor to The Chart Report and various other publications, where he writes about market themes using Technical Analysis and his own top-down approach.

He graduated from the University of South Carolina in 2010 with a Bachelor’s Degree in Finance.  Ian then pursued his MBA at The Citadel, with a concentration in Asset Allocation.

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            [post_content] => “The trend is your friend.”

As market technicians, we hear this a lot. And then eventually, thankfully, we learn to follow it as well. But what if there is no trend? Then what?

Well, then you make new friends that go by the names Patience and FaithPatience for when the trend resolves, and Faith in your abilities to identify that resolution.

Hello readers! Welcome to the revamped version of Technically Speaking. We’ve made several changes to the existing format based on the feedback we’ve received and we’re excited to share it with you. I am taking over the role of the Editor from Michael Kahn, who has been a fantastic Editor for the past three years! Thank you, Mike, for the content you curated diligently for so long.

As a study, technical analysis is extremely subjective, and once we factor in the emotions of the market participants and the market analysts, we have to ourselves a delightful mix of knowns and unknowns. The known is that human behavior continues to exhibit the same tendencies over time: Greed & Fear. The unknowns comprise the unique combinations that emerge from the coming together of distinct indicators, systems, trading styles, and perceptions. Put together, we have a beautiful place to go to, where every day is a new day and every day brings new opportunities. That is, if you are prepared to seize them.

2020 and 2021 have been quite distinct from one another. If 2020 was like bungee jumping, then 2021 has been more like ziplining. While 2020 rewarded those who had faith in the trend resolution, 2021 has been rewarding those who’ve exhibited patience. Regardless of both market scenarios, there have been plenty of lessons to be learned. Learn, we have, and will!

In the new format of this newsletter, we will present information in various forms that can be broadly categorized but not limited to the following:

Members and non-members are invited to share their unique experiences and learnings so as to grow together as a community.

I’d like to take this moment to thank the CMT Association for giving me this opportunity. I have been a student of Journalism in the past, and to be an Editor of an International Newsletter is truly a dream scenario playing out for me. I started out with the India-specific Newsletter Technical Insights, and have had many learnings which I intend to put to good use now.

My goal is to make market insights more accessible to you from those who have had their fair share of experiences. At a time when the market environment is as vibrant as it is today, it could only help to learn from those who have experienced the cycle of fear & greed several times and more!

If there is anything else you’d like to see featured here, please reach out to me at editor@cmtassociation.org.

Here’s to a new journey. So onwards and upwards we go (into bullish momentum territory).

Until we meet again (in print), think technical!

Rashmi Bhatnagar

Editor
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            [post_content] => Well, it is finally over! Or is it?

What is “it” anyway? It could be the pandemic, as on November 9 we got some excellent news on the vaccine front. Or it could be the election, which looks like a blue win but with a lot of legal challenges on the docket. Or maybe it was the end of ridiculously low T-bond rates? No, I don’t include any Fed changes in that one. Twitter? Zoom?

I’d go with all of the above, which was actually no answer.

So it goes as Halloween morphs into Thanksgiving. One thing is for sure: everyone cannot wait until 2021. Keep your extra hour of sleep as the clocks were changed back.

Fortunately, there is always something good happening in your Association. From a wildly successful India Summit to the upcoming Charles H. Dow Award competition to the next round of CMT exams, the CMT never sleeps. Our CMT Program enrollment numbers, including the cohort of candidates that had to postpone their exam in June, are up dramatically.

In this month’s edition of Technically Speaking, we have some good stuff, too. Our feature article is by Michaael Gayed, CFA, a two-time winner of the Dow Award, on market returns given the current level of the VIX. The result is actually against what we might think and that is what makes it valuable.

Ian McMillan, CMT is our member interview, the old faithful Minneapolis chapter is back with a speaker review, and we’ve got an announcement of the Reuters Investment Summit, for which the CMT Association is a sponsor.

Joel Pannikot gives us a taste of what to expect for the 2021 CMT Symposium, using the India Virtual Summit model to explain what the staff is changing about the Symposium and what's staying the same.

And if you have been procrastinating, this is the last call to submit your paper for the next Dow Award with details inside. There is another entry from the photo archive and news from around the Association.

Enjoy! Just keep your pumpkin spice to yourself.

- Michael Kahn, Editor
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            [post_content] => There are many songs about the end of summer, most talking about getting back to work or school, essentially ending the lazy, carefree days. If that’s you, perhaps you forgot this is 2020! Up is down, Zoom is the word and Wednesday is Sunday (at Carvel). People cannot wait for fall, hoping that things will get better on the virus, economic and back-to-school fronts.

However, after several months of really good stock market action, September gave also us that rude awakening that stocks can actually go down, and by a lot, in any given day. Even worse, crude oil, after sitting there for months, looks terrible again. And the greenback, after hitting a multi-year low, looks kind of “bottomy.” Is that it for gold?

Never let it be said that the markets – all of them – are boring.

Now that we are all supposed to be back at work, whether virtual or in person, it is time to get back to our plans. Of course, not the same old plans, but plans to move forward, nonetheless. As you will see, content here is a bit beefier now than it was over the summer. And the Association is getting back to long-range planning and getting CMT testing back into gear. This month, we also announce the 2021 Charles H. Dow Award, with updated submission requirements.

Also in this edition, we have Rui Matos’ article on seasonality in the commodities markets, and how to hedge/profit using options. Alon Horesh shares his thoughts on Machine Learning with regard to finding support and resistance levels. And this month’s member interview is with Vincent Randazzo, CMT, from Lowry Research.

From the Association, we’ve got membership news, and an announcement for remote proctoring in the CMT exams. The Washington DC/Baltimore had a virtual meeting in July and offered a few notes about their guest speaker.

There you go. Keep your fingers crossed that we are on the road to normalcy.

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor
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