Jamie Keelin, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the Chief Investment Strategist at Frazer Bay Investments, LLC. He has extensive financial markets and institutional equity trading experience and knowledge. While working at a mid-size investment bank, he played an instrumental role in clients’ investment and trading decisions. As an equity sector specialist, Jamie generated investment ideas for mutual fund and hedge fund clients by leveraging comprehensive industry specific knowledge as well as his technical and fundamental analysis skills. He is especially skilled at investment selection and implementation of investment strategies.

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            [post_content] => With December now here, the world is eager to kiss 2020 goodbye, and likely, good riddance. It was a tough year for many people as they lost their jobs, their dreams and even their loved ones. Many of us in the Association are privileged, because we work in an industry that thankfully stayed open for business, even if the markets tanked in a once-in-a-generation way. As a metaphor for the real world, 401-ks are back at new highs as the light at the end of the tunnel is shining brightly.

Let’s just jump right into the content of this month’s newsletter. We start with an article excerpted from Proactive Advisor Magazine, where technical analysis is offered as a way to enhance risk-adjusted returns. It’s not the center of the piece but it does show that even for fundamentally oriented managers, there is value is what we do. Everyone is a closet technician, it seems.

From around the Association, we’ve got chapter meeting reviews from Chicago and Minneapolis. This month’s member interview is with Lane Mendelsohn, President of VantagePoint AI software and a second-generation member of the Association.

News from the CMT front and another installment from the photo archive round things out.

Do me a favor, please. Make one of your New Year’s resolutions to get more involved in your Association. At the very minimum, you will meet other members. Every member interview we’ve done says that networking is one of the greatest benefits of membership, even if we are still working remotely. And whether you are an old-timer or fresh-faced newbie, how about contributing a book or software review or even an interesting blog post you’ve already written? My advice for anyone looking to advance their career is write, write, write ... and where better to get your work published than in your own Association of like-minded professionals?

- Michael Kahn, Editor
            [post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2020
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            [post_content] => Well, it is finally over! Or is it?

What is “it” anyway? It could be the pandemic, as on November 9 we got some excellent news on the vaccine front. Or it could be the election, which looks like a blue win but with a lot of legal challenges on the docket. Or maybe it was the end of ridiculously low T-bond rates? No, I don’t include any Fed changes in that one. Twitter? Zoom?

I’d go with all of the above, which was actually no answer.

So it goes as Halloween morphs into Thanksgiving. One thing is for sure: everyone cannot wait until 2021. Keep your extra hour of sleep as the clocks were changed back.

Fortunately, there is always something good happening in your Association. From a wildly successful India Summit to the upcoming Charles H. Dow Award competition to the next round of CMT exams, the CMT never sleeps. Our CMT Program enrollment numbers, including the cohort of candidates that had to postpone their exam in June, are up dramatically.

In this month’s edition of Technically Speaking, we have some good stuff, too. Our feature article is by Michaael Gayed, CFA, a two-time winner of the Dow Award, on market returns given the current level of the VIX. The result is actually against what we might think and that is what makes it valuable.

Ian McMillan, CMT is our member interview, the old faithful Minneapolis chapter is back with a speaker review, and we’ve got an announcement of the Reuters Investment Summit, for which the CMT Association is a sponsor.

Joel Pannikot gives us a taste of what to expect for the 2021 CMT Symposium, using the India Virtual Summit model to explain what the staff is changing about the Symposium and what's staying the same.

And if you have been procrastinating, this is the last call to submit your paper for the next Dow Award with details inside. There is another entry from the photo archive and news from around the Association.

Enjoy! Just keep your pumpkin spice to yourself.

- Michael Kahn, Editor
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            [post_content] => The Dog Days are upon us, yet the animal ruling the roost is the bull. That is, if you are in the stock market and most of the metals. Not so much if you own U.S. dollars. With the world still upside down due to the pandemic, whole swaths of the economy are likely to change; that means rethinking portfolio allocations.

But you don’t need me to tell you about the new world, as we are all living in it. I do, however, have confidence that this time next year things will be mostly back to normal. We’ll still probably look at each other as if everyone has got a secret case of the cooties, which, by the way, is a real word in the dictionary. I had no idea.  But that, too, will pass with time.

In this month’s edition, we interview Jeanette Schwarz Young, options trader and educator extraordinaire. The feature article by a recent new member, John Letizia, looks at the FAANG stocks with a new spin. For most of them, the big gains have happened after hours, but that could be changing. He also introduces us to an index that tracks an expanded version of these stocks that we can actually chart.

Of course, we’ve got some Chapter meeting summaries from NY, Minnesota and Chicago, as we proceed with virtual-only meetings for the foreseeable future.  We've also got another first, as the Singapore and Hong Kong Chapters held a joint virtual meeting with three speakers and several attendee polls. Check this out and see that our Asia presence is alive, well and growing.

Membership news and a message from the President round it all out. Don't forget, pricing for the CMT exams increases on September 1, so register now to get the current (Standard) price.

The post-Labor Day period typically sees activity of all sorts pick up. When we add the Presidential election drawing near, these should be “interesting times” ahead. Stay safe.

Michael Kahn, CMT

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            [post_content] => 
Letter from the Editor
November proved to be an interesting month for the markets. Just before the market burped up a post-Thanksgiving 2% pullback, the Russell 2000 finally broke out from its 2019 range. False hope? Recession time? Once again, the sloth (look it up) of bearish economists was out with the utterly useless prediction that a recession was coming by the end of 2021.  Thanks for the heads up, fellas. Have you seen a price chart?

I keep a collection of equally dim-witted headlines. Last month’s favorite was “Don’t Time the Market, but If You Do, Here’s When the Bear Might Come Knocking.”

Do as I say, not as I do.

Gold is still correcting, Oil showed a little stealthy increase, the dollar looks a little shaky and apparently Europe is still so bad that the ECB is dipping back in the QE well…Because it worked so well the last time.  Again, have they ever seen a price chart?

This month in Technically Speaking, we’ve got part three of Bruno DiGiorgi’s History of Wall Street, and George Schade, CMT, continues the history theme with a story about preserving the technical analysis of legend Edmund W. Tabell.

This month’s member interview is with Stanley Dash, Program Director of the CMT program and a well-established technician in his own right. You may know him as a technical educator at TradeStation, where he spread the gospel.

New York, Minnesota and Richmond chapters weigh in with reviews of their recent speakers. Hey other chapters who are not Northern Ohio and Chicago, can you help a TA brother out with reviews of your own?

In addition to all this, you can find Association news, congrats to new CMTs and another job posting all inside.

If you’ve got a book out, let us know so we can tell everyone. Also, if you are hiring technicians, we can post that here.

And one more time, I ask members to submit articles they’ve written (not forecasts but methods) or write something new to share your knowledge with the group. If you are new, this is a great way to develop your chops as an analyst and a writer.

Yes, I am begging for content! It’s your Association. Get involved.

To all, a joyous and profitable end of the year. See you back here in 2020.

Michael Kahn, CMT

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            [post_content] => I know we Americans tend to have a self-centered view of things, but the U.S. market has outperformed most of the world for the past two years. Of course, there are some exceptions, notably in Australia, India and Saudi Arabia. Curiously, Greece and Russia appear to have woken up recently.

Anyway, the point of this build-up is to say that May was one of the worst months in quite some time, only eclipsed by December 2018 in terms of net loss, based on the S&P 500 (October 2018 was about the same as May). The lingering trade battle with China and a threat towards Mexico got plenty of headlines. Too bad stiff resistance at 2935-2950 was not part of all the news that was fit to print.

The yield curve got a lot scarier looking, and as I write this, bill yield is higher than benchmark 10-year yield (and the mythical 20-year yield). But is that an official inversion?  Take out bills and the rest is still upward-sloping. And the economy and markets are backing the Fed into a rate-cutting corner.

And for you stock jockeys, have you noticed a resurgence in grains lately? There’s always a bull market somewhere (not a forecast!).

In the newsletter this month, we continue with the regular features, including part 3 of Joyce and Daniel Miller’s lesson on copyrights. Yes, it can be a dry topic, but if you publish anything - from newsletters to full books - you should at least be aware of this stuff. The authors give you more than most of us will ever need, but I urge everyone to give the material at least a skim.

This month’s member interview is with Greg Schnell of StockCharts.com. His story could be any one of ours. And we’ve got a reprint of Prof. Richard Lehman’s article on investment decision making. A little psychology, a little behavioral finance.

And, of course, the news from around the Association with chapter meeting speaker reviews, CMT updates and even a few job openings.

If you’ve got an analysis technique you’d like to share with the membership, why not put it on cyber paper and send it in. We’d love to publish articles about how members do their jobs.

Michael Kahn, Editor
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