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Jigar Mehta, CMT

Jigar Mehta, CMT

Jigar Mehta, CMT,CFTe is currently working as an Lead Investment Analyst with one of the reputed Family offices in UAE. Prior to it he has worked with renowned research firms and held the key designation.

Jigar is a passionate, dynamic, enthusiastic and performance-driven Finance Professional with more than 7 Years of experience in the field of Technical analysis on various asset classes such as Global Equities, Commodities and Forex. Using concepts of Intermarket relationship, trend following techniques as well as mean reversion techniques to trade in the market.

Jigar uses a combination of theories such as Elliott wave, Neo wave and Time Cycle to arrive at high probable investment and trading strategies.

His knowledge is not limited to Technical analysis but also has good hands-on experience working on fundamental analysis as well. He is currently pursuing CFA and successfully completed level 1.

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            [post_content] => “The trend is your friend.”

As market technicians, we hear this a lot. And then eventually, thankfully, we learn to follow it as well. But what if there is no trend? Then what?

Well, then you make new friends that go by the names Patience and FaithPatience for when the trend resolves, and Faith in your abilities to identify that resolution.

Hello readers! Welcome to the revamped version of Technically Speaking. We’ve made several changes to the existing format based on the feedback we’ve received and we’re excited to share it with you. I am taking over the role of the Editor from Michael Kahn, who has been a fantastic Editor for the past three years! Thank you, Mike, for the content you curated diligently for so long.

As a study, technical analysis is extremely subjective, and once we factor in the emotions of the market participants and the market analysts, we have to ourselves a delightful mix of knowns and unknowns. The known is that human behavior continues to exhibit the same tendencies over time: Greed & Fear. The unknowns comprise the unique combinations that emerge from the coming together of distinct indicators, systems, trading styles, and perceptions. Put together, we have a beautiful place to go to, where every day is a new day and every day brings new opportunities. That is, if you are prepared to seize them.

2020 and 2021 have been quite distinct from one another. If 2020 was like bungee jumping, then 2021 has been more like ziplining. While 2020 rewarded those who had faith in the trend resolution, 2021 has been rewarding those who’ve exhibited patience. Regardless of both market scenarios, there have been plenty of lessons to be learned. Learn, we have, and will!

In the new format of this newsletter, we will present information in various forms that can be broadly categorized but not limited to the following:

Members and non-members are invited to share their unique experiences and learnings so as to grow together as a community.

I’d like to take this moment to thank the CMT Association for giving me this opportunity. I have been a student of Journalism in the past, and to be an Editor of an International Newsletter is truly a dream scenario playing out for me. I started out with the India-specific Newsletter Technical Insights, and have had many learnings which I intend to put to good use now.

My goal is to make market insights more accessible to you from those who have had their fair share of experiences. At a time when the market environment is as vibrant as it is today, it could only help to learn from those who have experienced the cycle of fear & greed several times and more!

If there is anything else you’d like to see featured here, please reach out to me at editor@cmtassociation.org.

Here’s to a new journey. So onwards and upwards we go (into bullish momentum territory).

Until we meet again (in print), think technical!

Rashmi Bhatnagar

Editor
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            [post_content] => Welcome readers, to another edition of Technical Insights! 

It’s been a difficult couple of months as we deal with the second wave of a virus that has taken over a better part of our lives for more than a year now. I sincerely hope that you and your families are safe and healthy. 
 

The market too has reflected a similar rollover in sentiment, which naturally continues to play out even now. It’s amazing how the market acts as a living, breathing organism that ebbs and flows with the emotion of its main constituent- the people. 
 

While we continue to observe long-term base breakouts in indices across the globe, we’re also witnessing a slow-down in momentum in a few. But what does that mean for market participants? Well, for starters, one would have to be fastidious in their selection process. To get a slice of this pie, one would have to pay greater attention to detail, focus on sector rotation and plan their portfolios accordingly. We’re not in the 2020 market rally where stock selection was relatively much easier! But then again, as technical analysts I think we’re built to handle such market moves. 
 

But what does it mean to be a technical analyst? This is my take on it. 
 

As a technical analyst, one is expected to observe price data and the trends that have formed in the past, to gauge the possible future outcomes. Does that mean that a particular view is set in stone? Certainly not. Can the analyst be wrong in their analysis? Most definitely. Does that mean one should give up when they’re wrong? Not at all! The beauty of this subject is that you can be on both sides, but you will always be protected by a risk management strategy (that is, if you are vigilant).  

In my opinion technical analysts have what it takes to excel in any market conditions. At the core of this belief is that for every given trade, all the levels are in place. Entry as well as Exit (be that a target or a stop loss).  

 

So, what’s the caveat? Patience. Years of learning and experience lead to sharp analysis and execution. As a field, it demands your complete attention and takes you on a roller coaster ride before you’re ready for the next one!  

 

To all those who are finding their way, give it time and a lot of introspection. Eventually you will reach a point where failed moves won’t deter you and successful moves won’t blur you. That’s the goal!  

Since the market has been messy for the most part, this month we have a write-up each about the outlook in Equities, Gold and INR. In addition to this we have a blog on stock specific pattern identification as well.  

P.S - The Americas Summit 2021 concluded recently and I had the rare honour of appearing as a speaker. It was truly an enriching experience and if you haven’t already, I’d definitely encourage you to check out the videos on the Digital Guide. There’s decades of information in those few hours of content that is certainly worth your time! 
 

Until we meet againThink Technical!  

Rashmi Shastry, CMT

Editor
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            [post_content] => Head & Shoulders, Cup & Handle, Hanging man, Shooting Star, Island Reversal, Bullish Belt Hold etc are a few of the very many perfect examples of ‘how to make a subject interesting’. In a field that’s considered more complicated than rocket science (not my view), you’ve got to give it to the learned people to truly make this subject quite fascinating. They certainly managed to pique my interest, and I’m sure I’m not alone!

Any activity that results directly into the money reserve moving higher or lower involves stress. But there’s a combat for that in the form of risk management, which Is Technical Analysis’ biggest strength.  It’s the one thing that acts as a life boat in troubled waters.

Market participants over the past couple of months have been dealing with a market that has been moving in a trading range. Now this is where things become interesting. As a trader one must decide for themselves (depending on past experience of course) as to whether or not this is their playing field. There are certain people who excel at range-bound trading and others who look for swing moves. While these are learnings that we identify only after spending a considerable amount of time in the market, these learning can be elusive if not approached with the attention that they demand. When life is a mess, it makes sense to sit back, observe, plan and then execute. Similarly, when the market is in a mess, it is important to sit back and observe until you feel like joining the party again.

The beauty of this field is that you will learn things about your temperament, psyche, approach and reactions much faster than in any other field because these are what make up your arsenal. There is a common idea which involves wanting to defeat the market. But that is not the point of investments and trading. The point is to move with the market. Once it becomes a game of winning or losing, you are putting yourself in a place of superiority or inferiority. The market is not fond of one of these positions, and we all know which one! Take the phrase ‘The trend is your friend’ more seriously and life will be more peaceful!

This month we bring to you book reviews, breadth analysis, price analysis and the classic practice of ‘when in doubt, zoom out!’.

Until we meet again, Think Technically!

Rashmi Shastry, CMT

Editor
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