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Jim Erdmier, CMT

Jim Erdmier, CMT

Jim Erdmier, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, has been trading privately and institutionally for 10 years in equities, FX, and futures. He is pursuing a degree in Finance and Computer Science at DePaul University. Jim is Co-Chair of the Chicago Chapter of the CMT Association.

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            [post_content] => With December now here, the world is eager to kiss 2020 goodbye, and likely, good riddance. It was a tough year for many people as they lost their jobs, their dreams and even their loved ones. Many of us in the Association are privileged, because we work in an industry that thankfully stayed open for business, even if the markets tanked in a once-in-a-generation way. As a metaphor for the real world, 401-ks are back at new highs as the light at the end of the tunnel is shining brightly.

Let’s just jump right into the content of this month’s newsletter. We start with an article excerpted from Proactive Advisor Magazine, where technical analysis is offered as a way to enhance risk-adjusted returns. It’s not the center of the piece but it does show that even for fundamentally oriented managers, there is value is what we do. Everyone is a closet technician, it seems.

From around the Association, we’ve got chapter meeting reviews from Chicago and Minneapolis. This month’s member interview is with Lane Mendelsohn, President of VantagePoint AI software and a second-generation member of the Association.

News from the CMT front and another installment from the photo archive round things out.

Do me a favor, please. Make one of your New Year’s resolutions to get more involved in your Association. At the very minimum, you will meet other members. Every member interview we’ve done says that networking is one of the greatest benefits of membership, even if we are still working remotely. And whether you are an old-timer or fresh-faced newbie, how about contributing a book or software review or even an interesting blog post you’ve already written? My advice for anyone looking to advance their career is write, write, write ... and where better to get your work published than in your own Association of like-minded professionals?

- Michael Kahn, Editor
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            [post_content] => The joke running around the Internet is that this 2020 Leap Year had 29 days in February, 300 days in March and five years in April. It is already a year of biblical proportions, with locusts swarming in Africa, the global plague of COVID-19, and then murder hornets arriving in Washington state. The foot of snow that fell in the Northeast on May 8 seemed mild, but we can just wonder if June is thinking, “hold my beer.”

Yes, it is a different world. Millions are out of work, yet the stock market is on the road to recovery. I hold my tongue when my online friends wonder how that could be. It brings me to a quote from former Association president Phil Roth, who said, “The biggest mistake a fundamental analyst makes is thinking a stock and a company are the same thing. The biggest mistake a technical analyst makes is thinking they are different.”

But wait! There’s more!

Let’s not forget that crude oil traded at negative numbers in April thanks to the destruction of demand in the pandemic and so much supply that there was literally no place to put it. And the government is flooding the market with so much liquidity that negative interest rates seem to be a given in the U.S., as they already are across Europe and the world. The Fed wants to buy junk bonds, for crying out loud!

But again, in a world where many businesses were mandated to close, that fortunately does not apply to most of us in the Association. Our businesses can exist in a no-touch world. And it is our responsibility to keep going, and to be thankful.

In this month’s issue, we are thankful for the time spent with several technicians who have passed away. Tony Tabell, the second Association president is memorialized by Ken Tower, who worked for him long ago. Kenneth Safian, a long-time member and contributor also left us, as did Jim Schmidt, publisher of Timer Digest.

The CMT Association's own Barbara Terry has a great story about the initiative between the CMT Association and the CFA Association in Minnesota to fight hunger.

Also in Minnesota, that Chapter held its first virtual meeting with speaker Mark Newton, CMT.

This month’s member interview is with Jim Erdmier, CMT, co-chair of the Chicago Chapter. We acknowledge members who were finalists and winners in their categories at the Technical Analyst (magazine) Awards. And, of course, we’ve got a few encouraging words from the CMT Association president and other Association news as we continue to mint fresh new CMTs.

Lockdown, schmockdown! The CMT Association is open for business!

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor
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Letter from the Editor

Well, another year is in the books and unless you were a short-only equities trader, you probably did well. I’m not going to give you the typical year-in-review in the markets because you all have your own charts. Rather, let’s look at where we are as an organization and all we need to know is that we are growing. We’re global. We’re recognized by the regulators. And we’re actually kind of fun. Yes, that fun is in a nerdy sort of way - but through chapter meetings, online presentations and the annual symposium, we do get together quite a bit. Of course, we also hoist a few cold ones after the serious stuff is over. I joined the organization in 1994, if memory serves. At first, I was just an associate member before I became a professional member. At the time, my membership was a bit unusual because I was not officially trading, advising or managing money with technical analysis. Rather, I was the technical analysis product manager for a vendor called Tradecenter, which was owned by Knight-Ridder Financial at the time. It was my job to identify new analyses to add to the service, define it for programmers, test it with real and simulated data and then teach the customers how to use it. From that starting point, I got more involved in the Association, first as a committee member, then a committee chair, then newsletter editor for the first time, and eventually as a member of the Board of Directors. There is plenty of diversity in what we do and plenty of opportunity in how you can contribute to the Association. I encourage you to find your angle of interest and simply join that committee. As a largely volunteer-powered organization, we need you! This month, we’ve got the latest installment of Bruno DiGiorgi’s History of Wall Street series, in which we learn more about how Wall Street got its name. The very reliable New York and Chicago chapters have speaker reviews for your enjoyment. And this month’s member interview is with David Keller, CMT. Toss in the usual Association news and there you have it. Michael Kahn, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, January 2020 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-january-2020 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2021-04-07 16:21:29 [post_modified_gmt] => 2021-04-07 20:21:29 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44360 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 362642 [post_id] => 44360 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:5:"36037";} ) [3] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 40215 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2019-10-03 15:49:34 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-10-03 19:49:34 [post_content] => Forget March. October came in like a lion as the news cycle and economic reports stomped on the bulls. Considering that September was rather tame, it was a big wake-up call for stock jocks. But September did have its moments. The U.S. dollar soared and the UUP bullish dollar ETF nearly hit all-time highs (set in 2008). Gold, which still holds a long-term breakout, faded all month, not surprisingly. Bitcoin barfed (my opinion embedded there). The long Treasury yield recovery failed while the curve inverted and un-inverted again. And crude oil gave up its gains and then some after the Saudi oil field attack. There are fun markets to trade everywhere! Lest we forget, after peaking in 2014, the number of UFO sightings dropped this year to date to a 19-year low. I don’t quite see the correlation to any market, and especially not cannabis. So, while we sip our pumpkin spice (barf again) and watch this October’s volatility, remember that the “good part” of the year is upon us. No, not the seasonal strength for stocks but the CMT Association’s rolling out of all sorts of good stuff to make your work life better and easier. In this issue, we’re re-running a series from Technically Speaking’s past on the history of Wall Street, written by Bruno DiGiorgi. Did you know how the term “broker” came about? It had nothing to do with investors getting broker the more they traded. And since we’re in the rerun spirit, we’ve got an article from Adam Koos that ran last May in Proactive Advisor magazine. In it, Adam details his CMT journey and how it helped him in his advisory business. It’s a testament to the value of the designation and the process of getting it. I’ve also included a short piece on the “spirit of technical analysis.” Basically, it asks the question, “Does your precise analysis make sense in the real world?” We have an interview with the legendary Louise Yamada, whose work decades ago helped shape the analysis we practice today. Of course, we’ll round it off with Association news, updates from the CMT program, members in the media and chapter speaker reviews from New York, Chicago and Minnesota. The latter two are my total favorite chapters because they share frequently. The rest of you, well, bless your hearts. Michael Kahn, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2019 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-october-2019 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2021-04-07 16:23:14 [post_modified_gmt] => 2021-04-07 20:23:14 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=40215 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 304902 [post_id] => 40215 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:5:"36037";} ) [4] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 37944 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2019-03-11 14:25:39 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-03-11 18:25:39 [post_content] => The same old news seems to hang over the markets like a low level cow emission of uncertainty. Brexit – will it be hard or soft? China – will there be a trade deal or not? North Korea – nukes or no nukes? The Fed – quantitative tightening or not? Politics – not going there. The new news was the Green New Deal, spearheaded by the freshman representative from New York. This supposed economic stimulus and equality plan was widely criticized for its disruptive goals and impossibly fast timeline. We’ll leave the debating to the debaters and concentrate on what that means for us and our investing clients. Basically, it means some industries will get a boost and others will get a drag, if not elimination. Do we, or should we, really care about legislation that probably will not become law? The answer is yes, but for a reason any technical analyst should appreciate. There is already a trend in place towards a greener economy. Fully powered by the free market, we already see electric vehicles, high efficiency heating and cooling in buildings, natural gas heating oil and coal, renewable gas technology improving, solar and wind power costs coming down, and so on and so on. Green is coming, with or without a push from Washington. It’s what the people demand. They just don’t want to go cold turkey with no gas-powered pickup trucks, forced veganism and tripled electricity costs. This month, we’re getting ready for the 46th Annual Symposium, scheduled for April 4-5 in New York. There is still time to register. We also continue with our member interview series, this month featuring Mark Arbeter, CMT. In addition to this, we're carrying on the interview theme with a revisit to a presentation I did for the CMT Association last year called “Writing for the Media,” which teaches a few things about doing it right. And Lance Roberts offers some tips on being a good interview subject for TV or radio. Minnesota and Chicago chapters sent in reviews of recent meetings and Tom Bruni, CMT and our own Tyler Wood reviewed the recent Chart Summit weekend in Colorado. Of course, there is association news, including reason to show off your CMT designation. Be a CMT, loud and proud! Michael Kahn, CMT Editor, Technically Speaking [post_title] => Technically Speaking, March 2019 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-march-2019 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:17:34 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:17:34 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=37944 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 268707 [post_id] => 37944 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_8_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:5:"36037";} ) [5] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 37317 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2019-01-31 23:17:10 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-02-01 04:17:10 [post_content] => So far, this year has been dominated by the partial government shutdown. Does it affect the markets? Well, maybe indirectly. New issue IPOs are held up due to a lack of resources at the regulators. Tax refunds may be delayed, so investors might be a little cash tight. And most important of all, the shutdown and specter of a second downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt looms large. The deadline to raise or suspend the debt ceiling is just weeks away. Volatility in stocks remains high, bitcoin seems to be fading from interest, and for the first time in a long while gold shows signs of life. Naturally, the flattish yield curve, Brexit, and slowing global growth made the pundits warn of gloom and doom. Don’t tell Mr. Dow and Ms. Nazzie (or their Brazilian cousin Bovie). This month, the theme here centers on jobs. No, not jobs in the general economy, but jobs for technicians. We surveyed a group of technicians who took the plunge and went out on their own. After all, the number of direct, salaried jobs on the Street has dwindled - we’ve also got an article about a TA veteran who made that very point and told us what he did about it. The bottom line is that technical analysis is a very valuable skill to have, and where there’s a will, there’s a way to use it to make a living. Next, Dan Russo, CMT, offers his views on risk management, which is a very important topic for all of us. Of course, we’ve got news from around the association with chapter reports, CMT information, this month’s interview with George Schade, CMT and a review of the Mike Epstein Award presentation to Dave Lundgren, CMT, CFA by Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT. - Michael Kahn, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, February 2019 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-february-2019 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:15:27 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:15:27 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=37317 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 259449 [post_id] => 37317 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:5:"36037";} ) )

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