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John Kosar, CMT

John Kosar, CMT

John Kosar CMT is the Chief Market Strategist of Asbury Research LLC, a firm he launched in 2005.  Asbury Research provides data driven, technical and quantitative investment research to professional and private investors.  John is also the Chief Investment Strategist and a Managing Principal of Asbury Investment Management (AIM), a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA).

John has 40 years of experience in studying, analyzing, and forecasting global financial markets. He began his career in 1980 on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and spent the next 17 years there, acquiring a practical, real world education on how the US financial markets work from the inside out.  This experience, early in his career, became the foundation for his unique analytical approach and understanding of what really drives financial asset prices.  John’s proprietary blend of technical and quantitative inputs, combined with Asbury Research’s own quantitative models, are designed to be more forward-looking, agile, and actionable than the typical Wall Street approach.

John is a contributor to Forbes and StockCharts.com and is frequently quoted by US and global financial news organizations including The Wall Street JournalMarketWatch.comBarron’sYahoo! Finance, and Reuters.  John also regularly appears on financial television including CNBCFox Business, and Bloomberg and is a frequent speaker at financial events across the country presented by organizations including the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society, the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM), the CMT (Chartered Market Technician) Association, and the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

John has been consistently recognized as a top U.S. financial market analyst and was awarded the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation in 1999.  He served as Vice President of the CMT Association from 2004 to 2006 and was a member of its Board of Directors from 2002-2006.  John has previously been a trader, analyst, and strategist for a number of top firms including Shearson American ExpressNatWest MarketsGreenwich Capital Markets, and Deutsche Bank.

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            [post_content] => Just when everyone pooh-poohs our beloved “Sell in May” saw, it somehow starts to work. Or maybe it was just that the S&P 500 hit resistance on waning momentum? Hmm. I, for one, do not blame a tweet. And I also don’t expect this series of coincidences to dictate my summer outlook. By the way, as I write this, the Dow is right where it was when it (and the Spoo) scored their golden crosses in late March.

The truth is that the markets have changed since some of our indicators were created or discovered, and we have to change with them.  That’s why it is so important to keep learning. And keep respecting your “stops” on indicators that no longer produce results.

What better place to learn that at the CMT Association annual symposium? This year’s is in the books, but even if you were unable to attend, you’ll be able to get a few insights from the presenters. We’ve got summaries of several of them in this newsletter edition.

If you were there and took notes, we’d love to get a few paragraphs of individual presentations or the seminar as a whole. Send them to me at editor@cmtassociation.org.

Also in this issue is our series of member interviews, this month with John Kosar, CMT, of Asbury Research. Joyce and Dr. Daniel Miller are back with part two of their series on copyrights. This is an important topic for any of us that publish any works, from books to reports to blogs.

We also pay tribute to long-time member Stephen Cox, CMT, who passed away this month. He was instrumental in establishing the Dow Award.

And, of course, we’ve got some member news, from new CMTs to available resources.

- Michael Kahn, Editor
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

In this month’s issue, we are confident we have something for everyone.  Charlie Kirkpatrick, CMT, the only person to have written two Dow Award winning papers, explains an indicator he calls “the forward line.” In the first two articles of this issue, he explains the theory at the heart of the forward line, details the calculation of the indicator and demonstrates how to apply it to trading. In this month’s member interview, Anthony Abry explains his work and identifies position sizing and Commitment of Traders (COT) data as potential areas for further study. To help start your study, we turned to Ralph Vince who was the first to detail the theory of position sizing and John Kosar, CMT, who is one of the most innovative analysts working with COT data. We include some recent research from John and then added a chart showing how the market actually performed after John made his realtime market call.  We conclude this issue with an article about market geometry by Scott Hathaway. Scott has been working on new geometric techniques, in some ways picking up where and Gann and Elliott left off. Please let us know what topics you’d like to see covered in future issues by emailing us at editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2014 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-december-2014 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:30:54 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:30:54 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44585 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 367701 [post_id] => 44585 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_6_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"2254";} ) [2] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 46385 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2012-09-15 12:00:20 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-09-15 16:00:20 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Scott Hathaway leads off this month’s issue with another example of how he uses geometry to identify market patterns. Scott has contributed to several issues of Technically Speaking and readers seem to be interested in his work. As always, Scott delivers enough detail to reproduce his techniques. Content in the rest of the issue reflects Scott’s philosophy of innovation and detail. We are getting an updated view of the metals market from Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT. Jordan frequently publishes his forecasts and his thought process can be seen in reading his commentaries. We then reprint a couple of MTA Blog posts. This may be an overlooked member benefit but blogs found on MyMTA are often excellent research pieces. Scott frequently posts updates there and his latest insights in gold can be found there. Educational webcasts are also a benefit of MTA membership and two recent presentations are summarized. John Kosar, CMT, and Larry Connors are two very creative, data-driven technicians.  Although different in many ways, their work shares an attention to history and detail that is of value to any technician. Please let us know what you think about Technically Speaking. You can email us at editor@mta.org. Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2012 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-september-2012 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:34:54 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:34:54 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=46385 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 397312 [post_id] => 46385 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_3_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"2254";} ) [3] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 46756 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2012-01-15 12:00:23 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-01-15 17:00:23 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

We are starting the New Year for the newsletter by offering you a variety of topics. Hopefully we are reflecting the wide variety of work members of the MTA are doing in the real world. Celebrating the New Year involves a number of traditions and applying technical analysis is also rooted in a number of traditional tools, many of which are updated and applied in unique ways. We feature the work of Eric Leake and John Kosar, CMT, showing how they are applying traditional tools to create valuable forecasts. Jeb Handwerger applies these types of tools to a market that isn’t widely followed, rare earth metals, but is in the news quite frequently. Ken Safian has long been applying traditional tools in an untraditional way to economic data in addition to following the stock markets with a technical-based approach. We also highlight a new book from Christopher Grafton, CMT, which explains a traditional tool, cycles, in a new way. Please let us know what you are doing and allow us to share your application of the tools of technical analysis to the readers of Technically Speaking by sending an email to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, January 2012 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-january-2012 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-25 13:21:33 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 17:21:33 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=46756 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 402331 [post_id] => 46756 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_6_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"2254";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [4] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 52098 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2006-04-15 12:00:20 [post_date_gmt] => 2006-04-15 16:00:20 [post_content] =>

From the Editor’s Desk

On the cover of this month’s issue, we pay our respects to Jerry Favors. Mr. Favors was an early icon of technical analysis that came onto the financial scene in the mid-1980s. He was known for his respect for and deep knowledge of the works of the old masters of technical analysis like Edson Gould and George Lindsay. His work was widely known and highly respected throughout the financial world. Young technicians should consider picking up where Mr. Favors left off by exploring the works of the old masters that he loved so much. Inside, we present a new addition to Technically Speaking. Meet A CMT. This monthly column interviews a relatively new, up-and-coming CMT for the purpose of introducing him or her to the Membership. Kudos to Contributing Editor Garry Rissman for a job well done on this inaugural column. Also inside is another new addition to TS, our Letters To The Editor column, and also an update on the MTA’s Educational Seminar in New York City this May. Finally, I’d like to announce that this will be my last issue as the Editor of Technically Speaking. Our Nominating Committee has decided to go in a different direction, with a new slate of incoming officers for the upcoming MTA elections in June. As an outgoing Board member, I believe it is in the best interests of the Association to turn the reins over to the incoming Board as soon as possible so they can get off to a running start with their own agenda and initiatives. I believe an integral part of that should be installing a new Editor, since Technically Speaking is the voice of the MTA and a means for the incoming Board to inform us of its new direction and to support its new policies. As outgoing Vice President, I tried to use my position as Editor to do that very thing, and the new Board should have the opportunity to do so as well. Please take the time to carefully read the columns written by Jordan Kotick and John Kirby, our outgoing President and Executive Director. Jordan’s column gives a detailed overview of the changes that took place within your MTA during the past few years, and John provides us with a detailed look at the MTA’s current financial condition. I am very proud to have been a part of this Board which made a lot of changes that, although unpopular in some circles, turned the MTA from a 25-year old private club to a world-recognized professional society who’s CMT I and II tests are now accredited as a surrogate for the Series 86 exams. Special thanks to my Board colleagues and friends Jordan Kotick, Barry Sine and John Kirby who made it all happen, and best of luck to the incoming Board members and to the MTA. John Kosar, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, April, 2006 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-april-2006 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-05 16:29:16 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-05 20:29:16 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=52098 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 536175 [post_id] => 52098 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:5:"52107";i:1;s:4:"2254";} ) [5] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 52305 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2005-09-15 12:00:24 [post_date_gmt] => 2005-09-15 16:00:24 [post_content] =>

From the Editor’s Desk

Although September is seasonally a weak month for the stock market, it looks like a pretty strong one for the MTA and Technically Speaking. On the cover, long-time MTA Member and cycles expert Peter Eliades pays tribute to James M. Hurst, who passed away on August 18th at the age of 81. Mr. Hurst is one of the founding fathers of technical analysis. His classic book, “The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing”, was the reason Peter chose technical analysis as his life’s work. Inside, there are some terrific educational articles by Dave Landry on swing trading (Part 2 in a 3-Part series), by Larry Connors on up days in a row versus down days in a row in the stock market, and on inflation-adjusted stock market trends by Dr. Brett Steenbarger. In addition, our Executive Director John Kirby gives us a progress report in the MTA’s transition to our new technology platform, Net Forum by Avectra. Early this year, fellow MTA Board Member Duke Jones and I were personally involved in the process of evaluating our then-current platform, and deciding whether the Association needed to make a change. Although change is always difficult and this situation was no exception, Duke and I determined that it was imperative for the MTA to move to a platform that could accommodate its recent growth, and handle the additional growth expected in the years ahead. Duke and I believe this platform will be the gift that keeps on giving to the MTA in the years to come, and would like to thank John Kirby and his staff for all their hard work during this transition period. Please take a look at the line-up of speakers and agenda for the 18th Annual IFTA Conference in Vancouver in early November, hosted by the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA), and the MTA’s 2005 Mid-Winter Retreat in mid-January in Miami Beach. Two great locations, and two great opportunities to learn from and network with other technicians. Check them out. Finally, Technically Speaking would like to welcome four new Contributing Editors; Matt Blackman, Mohan Turaga, Jeannette Young, CMT and Garry Rissman. We look forward to reading articles and reviews by these MTA Members in future issues. The MTA still needs more Associate Editors. If you are interested in getting involved with Technically Speaking, by writing an article, covering a regional meeting, whatever, please contact me at editor@mta.org. All Contributing Editors will be sent a digital camera with all the accessories so we can include more photos in futures issues. We all know technicians like pictures! Hope everyone enjoys this issue. Respectfully, John Kosar, CMT, Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, September, 2005 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-september-2005 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-12 13:06:39 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-12 17:06:39 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=52305 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 540620 [post_id] => 52305 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_3_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"2254";} ) [6] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 52322 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2005-08-15 12:00:49 [post_date_gmt] => 2005-08-15 16:00:49 [post_content] =>

From the Editor’s Desk

I’d like to begin by introducing myself as the new Editor of Technically Speaking. I replace Mike Carr, who is stepping down to make a little more time for himself and his family. I know I have a tough act to follow but, fortunately for me, Mike will continue to contribute to Technically Speaking not only as an Associate Editor, but also as a mentor to me as I assume this new role. Speaking of Associate Editors, we need more of them! If you are looking for a way to get more actively involved in your MTA and like to write, this is a great way to do it. I have been an MTA Member for close to 20 years, and I have to say that THE single best benefit of MTA Membership, at least for me, has been the opportunity to network with other members. Through networking with our Membership, I have been able to find everything from obscure data that no one else had, to a new job. But you can’t network with anyone unless you put yourself out there and let others know who you are. Becoming an Associate Editor is a great way to do just that! Each Associate Editor will be listed as such in every issue of TS, and will also have their picture and bio appear with each published article they contribute. We especially need Associate Editors on a Regional level. If you regularly attend any of the MTA’s Regional monthly meetings and would like to cover the meetings for Technically Speaking, please contact me ASAP at editor@mta.org. I will then send you a digital camera, complete with all the accessories and software, so you can also provide us with some photos of your meeting. Again, this is not only a great way to let the rest of the MTA know what your particular region is doing, but an opportunity to let the rest of the Membership get to know you! Now, let’s move on to the Newsletter itself. On the cover of this month’s issue we present our first Regions Spotlight, which covers MTA member Tom McClellan’s presentation at the July 16th meeting of our Denver Chapter. Inside, you will find information on a variety of MTArelated topics including new improvements in our CMT testing process, plus information on our new and improved technology platform called Net-Forum. We also present Part 1 of a three-part article on Swing Trading by money manager and author Dave Landry. I hope you enjoy it. John Kosar, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, August, 2005 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-august-2005 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-12 13:44:26 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-12 17:44:26 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=52322 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 541389 [post_id] => 52322 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_3_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"2254";} ) )

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