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Kyle Lottman, CFA, CPA

Kyle Lottman, CFA, CPA

Kyle Lottman, Wealth Management Advisor at Elevate Capital Advisors.

Prior to joining Elevate, Mr. Lottman led a successful analyst career spanning nearly a decade in both equity and fixed income markets. During this time, he obtained the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation; regarded as one of the highest distinctions in the investment management profession. He also holds an active CPA license within the state of Minnesota.

Kyle grew up in the Vail Valley and attended Colorado State University where he graduated with both a Master of Accountancy Degree and Bachelor of Science Degree in Finance.

Outside of the office he enjoys anything and everything outdoors. He is an active co-chair of the Chartered Market Technicians Association, Minnesota Chapter.

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            [post_content] => The month of March is said to come in like a lion and go out like a lamb. If we apply that to this January, it was pretty much the reverse. After months of nary a hiccup, the stock market growled its way into the close and in the process wiped out its early gains.

It does seem that the market was set up for a problem, from overzealous sentiment to various valuation comparisons to 2000. Still, the real problem was knowing when. The market needed an excuse to do what it had to do and along came another deadly virus to virtually shut down the world’s second largest economy.

And what better time to think about what we did right and what we did wrong leading up to the top? Did we panic at the first whiff of the Hindenburg Omen? Was the CNN Fear and Greed Index our kryptonite? Did we play along with record unemployment? BTFD? Or panic when the yield curve arguably inverted again? Iran? China (the trade deal part)? Politics? Plunging oil? Plunging copper?

To all that, all the pure technician in me hears is, “blah, blah, blah.”

No, I’m not going to say none of that matters but it does make me appreciate the simply beauty in assessing price action itself. Or, as we say here in my new gig, Supply and Demand.

This month, we continue Bruno DiGiorgi’s History of Wall Street series with installment number five. We’ve also got a piece from a decade ago called The Top Technical Analysts, which answers the question many of us hear – “Where are the rich technicians?”  It was written in 2013 so the numbers are off, as are some of the firm names. But it is a timeless story that should make all technicians proud, especially when doubt creeps in that our processes don’t work anymore.

This month’s member interview is with Greg Harmon, of Dragonfly Capital Management. Considering he never heard of the CMT Association until fairly recently, he’s gotten quite involved.

There is chapter news from New York and Minnesota, as per usual, and we once again plead for other chapters to let us know what is going on with their members and programs.

We’ve also got a list of CMT candidate resources, membership news and an invitation to submit a paper to one of our partner organizations. Don’t say there are no places for you to publish your ideas.  And as always, we’d love to publish something you wrote right here in this newsletter. Can you think of a better place for beginners to share their ideas? Don’t worry, we don’t bite. In fact, we’ll help you develop your writing style.

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor
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            [post_content] => Thanks to the constraints of newsletter publishing and the lack of time travel resources available, this edition of Technically Speaking was put to bed before the festivities of the 46th Annual Symposium, earlier this month. While we could not magically forecast what the speakers would say, rest assured we will have plenty of information and reviews in the next edition. If you haven't taken the post-Symposium survey yet, you can do that here.

The funny thing about time is that this time is never different. While we usually apply that to analysis and the behavior of crowds, we are still applying it to the news of the day. Brexit was supposed to happen March 29, but it was delayed and still they argue over what it will look like. Trade with China is still up in the air. The Mueller report is finally out, and while we don’t know all the details inside, everyone still clings to their previous views.

What else is not different? Headlines! The three-month Treasury yield ticked above the 10-year yield and suddenly the media was in a panic over the curve inversion. Funny, the 2-year is still below the 10-year and that seems more important to me, especially now that the Fed said it’s done raising rates for now.

All of that hides the fact that the domestic stock market continued to claw its way back towards last year's highs. That’s pretty good for a geriatric bull market, yes? If you want to argue whether the bull started in 2008 or 2015 or some resistance breakout, be my guest. We don’t get paid to label things, only to make money.

Vincent Randazzo, CMT, from Lowry’s returns with another article and one indication why the current rally is not done yet.

And on a more mundane, although really important, topic, George Schade, CMT, introduced us to publishing and copyright specialists Joyce and Daniel Miller. The Millers offer part one in a series of articles walking us through the details of staying on the right side of the law. Whether you write books, newsletters or just post to your blog, this is important stuff to know.

I’ve found another of my vintage articles, explaining how to be a good interviewee on financial TV. This is a loose part 2 to last month’s article talking about dealing with the media. If you want to get invited back for another round of talks, you need to know this stuff.

And this month’s member interview is with Richard Dickson, also from Lowry’s. One more in a long, long, long list of professionals who started with the analysis herd and then saw the light that is technical analysis.

We also have a brief recap of those who received Association honors at the Symposium. They are listed within. And finally, we'll top this edition off with the usual news about the goings on around the Association.
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            [post_content] => The same old news seems to hang over the markets like a low level cow emission of uncertainty. Brexit – will it be hard or soft? China – will there be a trade deal or not? North Korea – nukes or no nukes? The Fed – quantitative tightening or not? Politics – not going there.

The new news was the Green New Deal, spearheaded by the freshman representative from New York. This supposed economic stimulus and equality plan was widely criticized for its disruptive goals and impossibly fast timeline. We’ll leave the debating to the debaters and concentrate on what that means for us and our investing clients. Basically, it means some industries will get a boost and others will get a drag, if not elimination.

Do we, or should we, really care about legislation that probably will not become law? The answer is yes, but for a reason any technical analyst should appreciate. There is already a trend in place towards a greener economy. Fully powered by the free market, we already see electric vehicles, high efficiency heating and cooling in buildings, natural gas heating oil and coal, renewable gas technology improving, solar and wind power costs coming down, and so on and so on. Green is coming, with or without a push from Washington. It’s what the people demand. They just don’t want to go cold turkey with no gas-powered pickup trucks, forced veganism and tripled electricity costs.

This month, we’re getting ready for the 46th Annual Symposium, scheduled for April 4-5 in New York. There is still time to register.

We also continue with our member interview series, this month featuring Mark Arbeter, CMT. In addition to this, we're carrying on the interview theme with a revisit to a presentation I did for the CMT Association last year called “Writing for the Media,” which teaches a few things about doing it right. And Lance Roberts offers some tips on being a good interview subject for TV or radio.

Minnesota and Chicago chapters sent in reviews of recent meetings and Tom Bruni, CMT and our own Tyler Wood reviewed the recent Chart Summit weekend in Colorado.

Of course, there is association news, including reason to show off your CMT designation. Be a CMT, loud and proud!

Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor, Technically Speaking
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