Larry Williams is an author, private investor, and trader. He has over 40 years of experience in the market and has written numerous books including Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders: Secrets of the COT Report and How I Made One Million Dollars … Last Year … Trading Commodities. He has created numerous market indicators including Williams %R, Ultimate Oscillator, COT indices, accumulation/distribution indicators, cycle forecasts, market sentiment and value measurements for commodity prices. Larry won the 1987 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading from the Robbins Trading Company, where he turned $10,000 to over $1,100,000 (11,300%) in a 12-month competition with real money. In November 2014, at the Traders Expo in Las Vegas, Larry Williams recorded a series of four videos discussing his 50+ years of trading.
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[post_content] => Once again, we find ourselves dealing with the external market forces of a China trade deal. Will we, or won’t we? But this time, China went into the currency markets and nobody liked that very much.
And the internal forces, somewhat internal, anyway, of the Fed dropping rates – giving the market what it asked to get – was not fun either. Apparently, it was not enough.
I get that the yield curve almost demands further cuts but the economy is also pretty much at the higher end of possibilities. Why exactly do we need cuts? To appease the bond market? Or is the bond market inverted because it knows the Fed will act?
What will the historians say in 20 years? I cannot wait to find out!
Gold has a long-term breakout. Copper looks terrible. Oil, too. The Baltic Dry rate is soaring but sources tell me it has nothing to do with demand, rather for ships out under adjustments. And the amount of global debt offering negative yields is at another record.
I’ll leave it to you to decide if that is reason enough to shun stocks. But a pundit – one who is not paid to advise investors - said on the tube this morning that a trade deal with China will be good for 5000 Dow points. A different pundit said that there will be a deal before the end of the year.
Hold your nose and buy? Again, that’s up to you. It’s a good thing you use charts.
In this edition, the summer doldrums have taken hold and there is not much sizzle to report around the Association. However, the meat continues to cook, from CMT testing to international symposium summits. The Association may not be making soundbites, but rest assured things are still happening.
For example, Association Executive Director Alvin Kressler reports on not one but two events in the planning stage for our overseas members. We welcome a new crop of freshly minted CMTs. And we are about to start accepting submissions for the Charles H. Dow Award.
In chapter news, we have two reviews for presentations by the same speaker in two different cities. It is interesting to see the different takeaways in nuance, although the main points were the same.
This month’s member interview is with trading legend and all-around nice guy Larry Williams. Larry is one of the most generous people around when it comes to sharing his accumulated knowledge.
And finally, this month's feature from Chis Cain, CMT, about his experiences programming with Python. Python has become the hottest programming language on Wall Street and is now being used by the biggest and best quantitative trading firms in the world.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
We open this month’s newsletter with a preview of the Annual Symposium. Larry Williams updates the idea of cycles in this article and presented insights into his
latest work when he spoke in New York. Also at the Symposium, Larry’s son, Dr. Jason Williams, offered insights into the minds of winning traders. We will offer summaries of the presentations in future issues and many presentations will be online, ensuring all members can access this information even if their schedule didn’t permit them to travel to the event.
We have been celebrating the 40th anniversary of the MTA with a look at its history. No review of the history of technical analysis and the MTA would be complete without a look at the work of Arthur Merrill, CMT. Hewas among the first to publish studies of various market behaviors, like seasonal tendencies in the stock market such as the end-of-month effect. In this issue of Technically Speaking we are reprinting his study of M & W patterns from a 1980 issue of the MTA Journal. Few analysts could duplicate this study today using readily available charting software. Arthur worked with a programmable calcualator, “it was designed for [the] T159 programmable calculator, and had 476 instructions,” and chart paper. Other examples of his work can be found in the Journal archives available on the MTA web site.
We also include some analysis of the current market. Keene Little, CMT, combines Gann with Elliott with other techniques in his work. Jonathan Beck takes an equally innovative approach. Both rely on techniques included in the diverse Body of Knowledge of technical analysis. Please let us know what you consider to be the most important topics in the field by emailing us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
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Letter from the Editor
The MTA Symposium held in May was very successful in every way. Attendees had plenty of time to interact with each other and the sponsors, and each speaker presented practical information. In this month’s newsletter, we try to present some details on the event. We’ll have even more from the Symposium in the July issue. But it is impossible to capture all the information in Technically Speaking. I’m already making plans to attend next year’s event, and hope to meet even more of you in New York. As anyone who has ever studied for the first level of the CMT exam knows, technical analysis is built on the assumption that history repeats itself. Many successful technicians study the history of the markets and economics. They often understand how politics affected the economy, and the markets. To bring a long-term understanding of the markets into focus, we are reprinting an article on the history of currency. This was researched by Dr. Brian Taylor, who details the history of every currency at his web site (https://www.globalfinancialdata.com/index_tabs.php?action=ghocmainpage).
One theme at the Symposium was that success in our field requires good communications skills. Many have learned that clients like stories with their analysis. This is fairly common when presenting an analysis of equities. Using the resource provided by Dr. Taylor can help you highlight stories even when analyzing the foreign exchange markets. While current politics is interesting, the historical perspective adds a sense of comfort for many clients.
We’ve also included a product review for High Growth Stock Investor software. HGSI has been a long-time supporter of the MTA and offers a discount to our members. Our members and affiliates receive the first 60 days of the data service for free and a 17% discount off of the regular monthly subscription price thereafter. Sponsors and supporters of the MTA make events like the Symposium affordable. We’ll be featuring more product reviews in the coming months to help you become familiar with the diverse group of companies that offer benefits to our members.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
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