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Mahesh Johari, CFA

Mahesh Johari, CFA

Mahesh Johari is an independent investor based in the Minneapolis area.

He holds degress in mathematics and economics from the University of Illinois and the University of Arizona.

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            [post_content] => As I write this, the Nasdaq has completely erased its pandemic drop and most everything else looks pretty good. Overbought, but better than any of the so-called economists had predicted.

There is one thing we technicians need to watch and that is trying to put the market’s action since February in a neat little box. I am not saying that this time is different – because it never is different – but that really only applies to the forces that govern free markets. What happened was entirely created by the governments around the world. Don’t get me wrong – with the information we had at the time, it seemed like the right move.

In other words, to avoid being political, it was not the free market that caused the market to fall. We did not see breadth divergences that tipped off the arrival of the bear. We did not see any “nifty fifty” behavior where the entire market’s gain was due to a handful of stocks (don’t debate me on this; I know the extended FANG bunch was responsible for large percentages). The yield curve was right again. And money was still flowing - liquidity is bullish.

What we had were businesses being forced to close and people getting laid off through no fault of the companies for which they worked. But that is all starting to reverse, as we knew it would.

So why, then, should we be able to look at a chart pattern and expect it to predict as similar patterns created by true market forces? No, I am not saying supply and demand don’t work – they do. What troubles me is looking at trendlines and support and resistance levels and hoping they will work in the same way as they would during “normal” volatility, free market times.

Use your tools. Just remember the environment we are all in, and give them a little slack.

This month, we are light on content from chapters and committees, thanks to the lockdown, although the Minnesota Chapter remained quite active. However, you will see that the Association is implementing virtual meetings, which means that any member can attend any chapter meeting. That is a good idea!

This month’s interview is with Theodore Krintas, co-chair of the Hellenic Chapter in Greece. We’ve got an article connecting seasonality with the pandemic, which is very interesting but a little off of our technical analysis mission. And we also have to say goodbye to another long-time member and CMT contributor, Dick Dickson, who passed away suddenly on June 1.

Don't forget to check out the new educational content in the video archives with links at the bottom of this edition.

We hope you are all coping with the lockdown and the slow reopening. Be safe.
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            [post_content] => The joke running around the Internet is that this 2020 Leap Year had 29 days in February, 300 days in March and five years in April. It is already a year of biblical proportions, with locusts swarming in Africa, the global plague of COVID-19, and then murder hornets arriving in Washington state. The foot of snow that fell in the Northeast on May 8 seemed mild, but we can just wonder if June is thinking, “hold my beer.”

Yes, it is a different world. Millions are out of work, yet the stock market is on the road to recovery. I hold my tongue when my online friends wonder how that could be. It brings me to a quote from former Association president Phil Roth, who said, “The biggest mistake a fundamental analyst makes is thinking a stock and a company are the same thing. The biggest mistake a technical analyst makes is thinking they are different.”

But wait! There’s more!

Let’s not forget that crude oil traded at negative numbers in April thanks to the destruction of demand in the pandemic and so much supply that there was literally no place to put it. And the government is flooding the market with so much liquidity that negative interest rates seem to be a given in the U.S., as they already are across Europe and the world. The Fed wants to buy junk bonds, for crying out loud!

But again, in a world where many businesses were mandated to close, that fortunately does not apply to most of us in the Association. Our businesses can exist in a no-touch world. And it is our responsibility to keep going, and to be thankful.

In this month’s issue, we are thankful for the time spent with several technicians who have passed away. Tony Tabell, the second Association president is memorialized by Ken Tower, who worked for him long ago. Kenneth Safian, a long-time member and contributor also left us, as did Jim Schmidt, publisher of Timer Digest.

The CMT Association's own Barbara Terry has a great story about the initiative between the CMT Association and the CFA Association in Minnesota to fight hunger.

Also in Minnesota, that Chapter held its first virtual meeting with speaker Mark Newton, CMT.

This month’s member interview is with Jim Erdmier, CMT, co-chair of the Chicago Chapter. We acknowledge members who were finalists and winners in their categories at the Technical Analyst (magazine) Awards. And, of course, we’ve got a few encouraging words from the CMT Association president and other Association news as we continue to mint fresh new CMTs.

Lockdown, schmockdown! The CMT Association is open for business!

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor
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            [post_content] => Dear Members, 

For more than 50 years, the CMT Association has existed to advance the discipline of technical analysis. This core value established by our founders guides us as we face the difficult challenge of responding to the coronavirus (COVID-19), which the World Health Organization has declared a global pandemic. 

Our hearts and thoughts go out to the families who have been directly affected by this unprecedented event and we appreciate the healthcare workers, local communities, and governments around the world who are on the front line working to contain this coronavirus. We also applaud all CMT Members engaged in unselfish acts: caring for family and friends; supporting co-workers and colleagues; aiding those in our communities without the privilege to work remotely or lean on savings to fill their pantries 

As the situation grows, the CMT Association has also been impacted. In the interest and health of our members, the Board of Directors decided on March 14th to postpone the upcoming 47th Symposium. The decision was not make lightly, but we know that the event will come back stronger in the years to come. The Association is closely monitoring the pandemic with an eye on the CMT Program. While it has not been immediately impacted, we are in close contact with Prometric to make sure that we have all the current information.

Compounding the challenges of disrupted travel, uncertain business planning and clear public health threats, we know that all our members are shouldering responsibilities for firms and clients trying to navigate tumultuous and uniquely volatile market behavior. So, in the spirit in which the CMT Association was first forged 50 years ago, lean on us for the resources you need to get through this difficult period. Here are a few quick resources you can access from anywhere. 

Resources

1. Journal of Technical Analysis – 70 issues over 40+ years of research by practitioners for practitioners.  

2. Weekly Webinars –  View the schedule of upcoming live digital presentations 

3. CMT Youtube Channel – share video presentations, podcast interviews and other free content with your network here 

4. CMT on Twitter – Converse with members and stay current with the latest market commentary from CMT charterholders all over the world at https://twitter.com/cmtassociation 

Community Leadership Whether you reside in Mumbai, Milwaukee, or anywhere in between, we all have some difficult times aheadWhile it is challenging to resist getting swept up in the media frenzy or falling victim to our own emotional response to sharp losses and client frustrations, remember that this is a time when the industry is counting on our community to bring calm rational perspectives and disciplined guidance. It is on you to be the leader now. Here’s how you can help in the short-term: 

1. Speak to the media, and let us know when that happens so we can amplify that through our social media networks.  

2. Share resources with colleagues at your firm. Send them links to articles or archived videos at www.cmtassociation.org  

Long-Term Relevancy We are trading through what will be an incredible case study in the future. Here's how you can leverage this for your career and the global recognition of the CMT Charter.

1. Submit your research to the Charles H. Dow Award competition. Use this market environment to track and monitor your strategies. Share your work and help us all advance the discipline of technical analysis. 

2. Advocate within your firm. Does your employer support ongoing professional development? Can all CMT charterholders use the designation on business cards and research reports? Do they have a learning & development team we can speak with about the value we bring to employees and the firm’s clients? Make your suggestions or introductions to Alvin, Tyler, or Joel - @cmtassociation.org. 

3. Do your colleagues or institutional clients want to improve their professional practice? Introduce them to the CMT Program. 

As we have often been told, hope is not an investment strategy. Hope does not lie in a rate cut or a stimulus package. It comes from calm leaders who are experts in their field sharing objective facts and honest recommendations. CMT Association members have a responsibility to the industry right now. Please send your thoughts and recommendations on how you are taking action and how we can engage deeply in that work with you right now, and for the weeks and months to come.  On behalf of all CMT Members and staff around the world, we wish you and your families health and safety in the weeks and months ahead  Sincerely,  The CMT Association Board of Directors   [post_title] => Technically Speaking, March 2020 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-march-2020 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2021-04-07 16:20:31 [post_modified_gmt] => 2021-04-07 20:20:31 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47034 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 405525 [post_id] => 47034 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:5:"37319";} ) [3] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 41398 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2019-11-07 10:06:12 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-11-07 15:06:12 [post_content] => As the leaves finally turn here in the New York area, the stock market has once again reached new highs, at least according to the big indices. But just when you stopped looking, the Russell clawed back to the top of its year-long range and the NYSE composite – the average Joe index – is at a two-year high. Could it be that the converse to “sell in May” is finally going to work? The answer is, of course, who knows?  The usual suspects still hold us hostage: China and the Fed. The latter seems to be on hold after the last rate hike. There are a few things of note, namely the resurgence of retail stocks and banks. The dollar may be breaking down, too. Copper may still be comatose, but look at platinum soar! This month in Technically Speaking, we’ve got part two of Bruno DiGiorgi’s History of Wall Street and a twist on an old, less-well-known indicator by David Steckler. New York and Minnesota Chapters weigh in with speaker reviews, and our member interview is with Ken Tower, CMT, a past president of the Association. We’ve also got a similar interview with CMT Association Executive Director Alvin Kressler. It is easy to think of him as just an administrator, but when you look at his career, he is truly one of us. Of course, we’ve got Association news, including the announcement of 27 new CMTs. If you’ve got a book out, let us know so we can tell everyone. Also, if you are hiring technicians, we can post that here. And as usual, I ask members to submit articles they’ve written (not forecasts but methods) or write something new to share your knowledge with the group. If you are new, this is a great way to develop your chops as an analyst and a writer. Michael Kahn, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2019 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-november-2019 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2021-04-07 16:22:37 [post_modified_gmt] => 2021-04-07 20:22:37 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=41398 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 320716 [post_id] => 41398 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:5:"37319";} ) [4] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 40215 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2019-10-03 15:49:34 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-10-03 19:49:34 [post_content] => Forget March. October came in like a lion as the news cycle and economic reports stomped on the bulls. Considering that September was rather tame, it was a big wake-up call for stock jocks. But September did have its moments. The U.S. dollar soared and the UUP bullish dollar ETF nearly hit all-time highs (set in 2008). Gold, which still holds a long-term breakout, faded all month, not surprisingly. Bitcoin barfed (my opinion embedded there). The long Treasury yield recovery failed while the curve inverted and un-inverted again. And crude oil gave up its gains and then some after the Saudi oil field attack. There are fun markets to trade everywhere! Lest we forget, after peaking in 2014, the number of UFO sightings dropped this year to date to a 19-year low. I don’t quite see the correlation to any market, and especially not cannabis. So, while we sip our pumpkin spice (barf again) and watch this October’s volatility, remember that the “good part” of the year is upon us. No, not the seasonal strength for stocks but the CMT Association’s rolling out of all sorts of good stuff to make your work life better and easier. In this issue, we’re re-running a series from Technically Speaking’s past on the history of Wall Street, written by Bruno DiGiorgi. Did you know how the term “broker” came about? It had nothing to do with investors getting broker the more they traded. And since we’re in the rerun spirit, we’ve got an article from Adam Koos that ran last May in Proactive Advisor magazine. In it, Adam details his CMT journey and how it helped him in his advisory business. It’s a testament to the value of the designation and the process of getting it. I’ve also included a short piece on the “spirit of technical analysis.” Basically, it asks the question, “Does your precise analysis make sense in the real world?” We have an interview with the legendary Louise Yamada, whose work decades ago helped shape the analysis we practice today. Of course, we’ll round it off with Association news, updates from the CMT program, members in the media and chapter speaker reviews from New York, Chicago and Minnesota. The latter two are my total favorite chapters because they share frequently. The rest of you, well, bless your hearts. Michael Kahn, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2019 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-october-2019 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2021-04-07 16:23:14 [post_modified_gmt] => 2021-04-07 20:23:14 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=40215 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 304835 [post_id] => 40215 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:5:"37319";} ) [5] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 39756 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2019-09-06 16:12:01 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-09-06 20:12:01 [post_content] => As we turn the page on another summer season, well, here in the Northern Hemisphere, traders return from the Hamptons, or wherever they park their yachts, and supposedly liquidity comes back with them. But this is no ordinary year. Between on-again, off-again trade talks with China, negative interest rates overseas and volatility during the usually quiet dog days of late August, who knows? The yield curve inverted again while long rates plummeted to super oversold levels. Gold scored a long-term breakout, and who gave the silver market a triple espresso? Yet through it all, the NYSE advance-decline line hit a new all-time high before Labor Day. It’s been relatively quiet on the Association front, as you would expect during the late summer. However, things are ramping back up. The first item to note is that we are now accepting submissions for the 2020 Charles H. Dow Award (details within).  Registration for the next CMT exam cycle remains open, and we are welcoming a new crop of freshly-minted CMT charterholders into the fold. This month, we’ve got an article by Stefanie Kammerman discussing dark pools. We all can agree that volume analysis has been somewhat ineffective over the past decade and one reason is that a lot of trading takes place off the exchanges. Whether you believe it or not, it is an interesting thought. And Christopher Cain, CMT, is back with another article, this time explaining how his firm combines technical data with fundamentals and some quant methodology to only buy quality companies in rising trends. This month’s member interview is with Fred Meissner, CMT, who has been a big supporter of the Association and has served in many positions over the years, including president. And what has become my own favorite chapter, Minnesota, offered yet another speaker review from its monthly meeting. Come on, other chapters. We want to know what you are all up to these days. Send in your speaker reviews. And while I am on a roll, how about individual members volunteer to send in your own reviews of relevant books you’ve read or lectures you’ve attended? Share the knowledge! Michael Kahn, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2019 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-september-2019 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2021-04-07 17:50:27 [post_modified_gmt] => 2021-04-07 21:50:27 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=39756 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 297961 [post_id] => 39756 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:5:"37319";} ) [6] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 39344 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2019-08-06 06:55:21 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-08-06 10:55:21 [post_content] => Once again, we find ourselves dealing with the external market forces of a China trade deal. Will we, or won’t we? But this time, China went into the currency markets and nobody liked that very much. And the internal forces, somewhat internal, anyway, of the Fed dropping rates – giving the market what it asked to get – was not fun either. Apparently, it was not enough. I get that the yield curve almost demands further cuts but the economy is also pretty much at the higher end of possibilities. Why exactly do we need cuts? To appease the bond market? Or is the bond market inverted because it knows the Fed will act? What will the historians say in 20 years? I cannot wait to find out! Gold has a long-term breakout. Copper looks terrible. Oil, too. The Baltic Dry rate is soaring but sources tell me it has nothing to do with demand, rather for ships out under adjustments. And the amount of global debt offering negative yields is at another record. I’ll leave it to you to decide if that is reason enough to shun stocks. But a pundit – one who is not paid to advise investors - said on the tube this morning that a trade deal with China will be good for 5000 Dow points. A different pundit said that there will be a deal before the end of the year. Hold your nose and buy? Again, that’s up to you. It’s a good thing you use charts. In this edition, the summer doldrums have taken hold and there is not much sizzle to report around the Association. However, the meat continues to cook, from CMT testing to international symposium summits. The Association may not be making soundbites, but rest assured things are still happening. For example, Association Executive Director Alvin Kressler reports on not one but two events in the planning stage for our overseas members. We welcome a new crop of freshly minted CMTs. And we are about to start accepting submissions for the Charles H. Dow Award. In chapter news, we have two reviews for presentations by the same speaker in two different cities. It is interesting to see the different takeaways in nuance, although the main points were the same. This month’s member interview is with trading legend and all-around nice guy Larry Williams. Larry is one of the most generous people around when it comes to sharing his accumulated knowledge. And finally, this month's feature from Chis Cain, CMT, about his experiences programming with Python. Python has become the hottest programming language on Wall Street and is now being used by the biggest and best quantitative trading firms in the world. Michael Kahn, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, August 2019 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-august-2019 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2021-04-07 16:11:15 [post_modified_gmt] => 2021-04-07 20:11:15 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=39344 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 294112 [post_id] => 39344 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_6_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:5:"37319";} ) [7] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 38922 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2019-07-07 07:41:07 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-07-07 11:41:07 [post_content] => We are still talking about trade battles with China and an arguably inverted yield curve. Yes, there are other perennial thorns in the paw (Iran and North Korea) but they don’t have much market moving history. As June ended, we got a trade battle truce and the stock market soared. Imagine what will happen if something actually gets done! I still have a problem with calling the yield curve inverted, as most of it is upward sloping. Only the three-month bill is out of whack as I write this on July 1 and that is rather tied to the Fed. Will they cut, or won’t they? Before the trade truce, fed funds trading had a rate cut for a certainty for this month. Now? Maybe not so certain. What I can see that is problematic is that the entire curve shifted lower compared to a month ago. And a quick scan of some global debt shows a lot of fractional, and even negative, benchmark yields. All that cannot be good. Yet gold is backing down to test its breakout. Again, I am writing on July 1 so you all will know how that went. Bitcoin. Again. Technical analysts’ paradise, investors’ nightmare. When the prices for retro Air Jordans on the StockX sneaker exchange are more stable than the “currency of the future,” I like to watch from afar. The lyrics of Bob Dylan dance in my head – “When will they ever learn? When will they ev-er learn?” This month, we have an interesting white paper excerpt from TrendSpider about their new raindrop charts. It attempts to give the TA a feeling for how the day or hour developed, similar to market profile, although chartable like candles. However, volume is incorporated as in a VWAP. This month’s member interview is Les Williams, CMT, who has been active in the association for many years and in many roles. My own CMT certificate was signed by him when he was the Chair of the Admissions committee. And the Millers are back with the fourth and final installment of their series on copyrights. Again, this is an important topic for anyone who publishes books, newsletters and even blogs. We've got three Chapter speaker reviews from Atlanta, Denver and Minnesota. Our regular association member news. And a little career advice for newbies urging everyone to write, write, write, no matter how green you may be. Michael Kahn, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2019 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-july-2019 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:15:17 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:15:17 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=38922 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 284906 [post_id] => 38922 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_7_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:5:"37319";} ) [8] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 37317 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2019-01-31 23:17:10 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-02-01 04:17:10 [post_content] => So far, this year has been dominated by the partial government shutdown. Does it affect the markets? Well, maybe indirectly. New issue IPOs are held up due to a lack of resources at the regulators. Tax refunds may be delayed, so investors might be a little cash tight. And most important of all, the shutdown and specter of a second downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt looms large. The deadline to raise or suspend the debt ceiling is just weeks away. Volatility in stocks remains high, bitcoin seems to be fading from interest, and for the first time in a long while gold shows signs of life. Naturally, the flattish yield curve, Brexit, and slowing global growth made the pundits warn of gloom and doom. Don’t tell Mr. Dow and Ms. Nazzie (or their Brazilian cousin Bovie). This month, the theme here centers on jobs. No, not jobs in the general economy, but jobs for technicians. We surveyed a group of technicians who took the plunge and went out on their own. After all, the number of direct, salaried jobs on the Street has dwindled - we’ve also got an article about a TA veteran who made that very point and told us what he did about it. The bottom line is that technical analysis is a very valuable skill to have, and where there’s a will, there’s a way to use it to make a living. Next, Dan Russo, CMT, offers his views on risk management, which is a very important topic for all of us. Of course, we’ve got news from around the association with chapter reports, CMT information, this month’s interview with George Schade, CMT and a review of the Mike Epstein Award presentation to Dave Lundgren, CMT, CFA by Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT. - Michael Kahn, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, February 2019 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-february-2019 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:15:27 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:15:27 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=37317 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 259479 [post_id] => 37317 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_5_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:5:"37319";} ) )

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