public

Michael Carr, CMT

Michael Carr, CMT

Mike Carr, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a full-time trader and contributing editor for Banyan Hill Publishing, a leading investment newsletter service. He is an instructor at the New York Institute of Finance and a contributor to various additional publications related to trading, including CNN’s MoneyShow, SFO Magazine and Futures Magazine. Mike is the author of two books, Smarter Investing in Any Economy: The Definitive Guide to Relative Strength Investing (2008) and Conquering the Divide: How to Use Economic Indicators to Catch Stock Market Trends (2010). Previously, he served as editor of the CMT Association’s newsletter, Technically Speaking.

Array
(
    [0] => stdClass Object
        (
            [ID] => 52214
            [post_author] => 2
            [post_date] => 2017-07-15 12:00:40
            [post_date_gmt] => 2017-07-15 16:00:40
            [post_content] => 

MTA becomes CMT ASSOCIATION

Beginning July 15th, after nearly 50 years of service to the financial industry, the Market Technicians Association is becoming the CMT Association and updating the organization’s brand. As members of the organization, we cannot thank you for creating this remarkable home for the advancement of technical analysis. Committed volunteers and engaged participants are the reason our discipline has the professional respect we enjoy today. As we strive to uphold the vision of our founders while adapting to the rapidly changing industry, we hope that you will help us extend the reach of the organization by sharing this news with your colleagues, clients, and professional contacts. The Association’s leadership including Board Members, founding members, and senior staff, recommended that members approve changing our organization’s name. Having carefully considered all implications of the legal name change, the leadership felt that it is imperative to rationalize the number of acronyms out in the industry. Pending approval by a vote of the Membership, you’ll see the new look and name anywhere we’re out in public, like our website, publications, digital webcasts, LinkedIn, Facebook and Twitter. Very soon you’ll see new signage and materials at your local chapters, as well. The new brand name better matches what we’ve become since the early 1970s: the preeminent global designation for financial professionals committed to advancing the discipline of technical analysis. When our association began, we operated for years without a credentialing body, exam process, or charter. Since our legal incorporation in 1973, we’ve stuck with the Market Technicians Association. Although we slightly altered our colors in late 2015 as we built out the new website, we did not consolidate our two acronyms – MTA and CMT. Today, the CMT Program is central to the value of the Association as well as the professional identity of nearly all Members. The new name reflects our continued commitment to our global members and unique capacity to advance the discipline of technical analysis among industry professionals. Aligning with best practice allows us to consolidate the MTA and CMT acronyms for renewed clarity and notoriety of our CMT charterholders worldwide. Other than these visible changes, the association will continue to operate in its current structure with no change in staff or volunteer leadership. Your contacts for all ongoing projects and initiatives will remain unchanged. Furthermore, the mission and goals of the association remain unchanged. The CMT Association will continue to be a place for collegial discourse and exchange of ideas amongst like-minded professionals. Whether you are a charterholder or not, your Membership status will not change. Our brand goal was to align with industry best practice. In our field, the notable organizations are all designation-centric (CFA Institute, CFP Board, CAIA Association, etc..) We also aimed to reduce confusion in the marketplace around our multiple acronyms; better matching our name to our core value proposition and the users we serve. A small team of staff and volunteers worked with professional designers to find something that appeared crisp, approachable, professional, modern, and connected. The “M” of the logo creatively represents a barchart, but it’s stylized and emphasized through color to connote the importance of Markets within our name. The study of price  behavior is about markets in comparison to the study of fundamentals and the assessment of companies. Our decision to use the acronym in the logo was inspired by the diversity of our members. A “CMT” is a portfolio manager, a research analyst, a financial advisor, an asset allocator, a quantitative trading system developer, and many more things – but always a professional committed to advancing the discipline of technical analysis and upholding the highest ethical standards in the industry. We hope you like this new look for the CMT Association! Look out for more updates and a broader industry presence as we continually try to better serve our members with the preeminent global designation and highest member value in all our programming and initiatives. [post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2017 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-july-2017 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-11 12:31:53 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-11 16:31:53 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=52214 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 539092 [post_id] => 52214 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:5:"24738";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [1] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 42340 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2017-06-15 11:44:10 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-06-15 15:44:10 [post_content] => [post_title] => Technically Speaking, June 2017 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-june-2017 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:19:35 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:19:35 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=42340 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 332291 [post_id] => 42340 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_1_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"1387";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [2] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 42665 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2017-02-15 12:00:28 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-02-15 17:00:28 [post_content] => [post_title] => Technically Speaking, February 2017 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-february-2017 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:24:19 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:24:19 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=42665 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 336696 [post_id] => 42665 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_7_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [3] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 42845 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2016-11-15 12:00:05 [post_date_gmt] => 2016-11-15 17:00:05 [post_content] => [post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2016 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-november-2016 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:25:27 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:25:27 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=42845 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 339356 [post_id] => 42845 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_3_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:5:"42672";} ) [4] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 44049 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2015-09-15 12:00:53 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-09-15 16:00:53 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

This month’s issue of the magazine is the sixth month in a row we are featuring content from the Annual Symposium. That meeting lasts just a few days but it truly does provide months worth of ideas for attendees. Planning is underway for the 2016 Symposium and each year is always better than the previous year. It’s not too early to start making plans to attend.  This month’s magazine also includes examples of the latest research into technical analysis and historical perspectives of the field. As always, we hope you find actionable ideas in each issue.  Remember, submissions for the 2016 Charles H. Dow Award are now being accepted. More details are available by clicking here. Submissions for other awards, including the MTA Annual Award and the Memorial Award, will also be accepted soon. If you know of someone who should be recognized with one of the MTA’s awards, now is the time to plan their nomination.  You can always provide feedback on Technically Speaking by emailing us at editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2015 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-september-2015 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:26:01 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:26:01 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44049 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 355102 [post_id] => 44049 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"1438";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [5] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 44112 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2015-08-15 12:00:42 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-08-15 16:00:42 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Just four months after the winner of the 2015 Charles H. Dow Award was recognized it’s time to plan for the 2016 Award. This month we are announcing the deadlines for the Award.  Although there are several months before papers are due, planning and writing the papers is a large undertaking.  We hope many of you will begin that pursuit.  This month’s newsletter also includes an admission by one of Wall Street’s most-respected strategists that technical analysis is an important component of his work. Byron Wien, a name familiar to many readers, credits technical analysis with turning his career around.  We also have research on market liquidity, a growing concern especially in the fixed income markets.  Liquidity is a major factor in supply and technical analysis is dedicated to the study of supply and demand. Changes in market structure could make price action more volatile. As this article highlights, we have already seen several liquidity-related market events and are likely to see more. The potential implications of liquidity changes are important to technicians and we hope you’ll find this research to be useful. Please let us know which areas of research interest you by emailing us at editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, August 2015 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-august-2015 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:28:45 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:28:45 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44112 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 356445 [post_id] => 44112 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"1441";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [6] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 44163 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2015-07-15 12:00:47 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-07-15 16:00:47 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

At the Annual Symposium in March, Jason DeSena Trennert explained why he was bullish. He summed it up as “TINA” or “there is no alternative.”  Months later, his presentation is just as timely. Large investors running pension funds or insurance companies understand stocks are expensive but they are faced with the reality that there is no alternative.  This month’s newsletter includes a summary of that presentation and demonstrates the value of the Symposium. Presentations like Jason’s are both timely and timeless. As your schedule permits, I urge you to remember that videos of this year’s presentations and the previous four years are available at http://symposium.mta.org/ and can be viewed at anytime.  Dr. Bryan Taylor also presents timely and timeless information. Using data going back nearly 200 years, Bryan demonstrates history is repeating in Greece. The fact that history repeats is one of the basic precepts of technical analysis. We can be certain history will repeat in the future which is why technical analysis will continue to add value to the investment decision process.  This value is being demonstrated by academic research as we explain in this issue. We also explain how the value of technical analysis is driving changes in the careers of technicians and these changes resulted in an update to the CMT program.  As always, we welcome your feedback. Please let us know what you think of Technically Speaking, the MTA magazine, by emailing us at editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2015 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-july-2015 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:29:28 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:29:28 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44163 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 357495 [post_id] => 44163 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"1372";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [7] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 44215 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2015-06-15 12:00:49 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-06-15 16:00:49 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Technical analysis has always been focused on the application of knowledge. In the early editions of Edwards and Magee’s Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, they focused on how to trade chart patterns. But these pioneers of the field also included a theory explaining why the pattern should work.  While applying the ideas of technical analysis is still the important consideration to practitioners, many academic researchers are working to uncover why the techniques work. In this month’s newsletter, we provide articles highlighting both the application of technical analysis and the research that technical analysis is stimulating in the academic community.  This month’s newsletter also includes a summary of Tom Dorsey’s presentation at the Annual Symposium. The Symposium truly does provide a year’s worth of ideas and we will be presenting summaries of those ideas in the months ahead. Videos of this year’s presentations and the previous four years are available at http://symposium.mta.org/ and can be viewed at anytime. As always, we welcome your feedback. Please let us know what you think of Technically Speaking, the MTA magazine, by emailing us at editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, June 2015 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-june-2015 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:28:49 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:28:49 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44215 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 358708 [post_id] => 44215 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"1357";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [8] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 44248 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2015-05-15 12:00:41 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-05-15 16:00:41 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Ethics is the lead story in this month’s magazine. The MTA is adopting a large body of knowledge related to all areas of finance through a licensing agreement with the CFA Institute. All finance professionals, whether they analyze fundamental, quantitative or technical data, share common goals (finding profitable opportunities) and share a common operating environment. Given all of the commonalities, it’s not surprising we share the same ethical requirements. This new body of knowledge will not require members of the MTA to change anything they do professionally. The original MTA Code of Ethics was comprehensive and covered all of the important standards of professional behavior. The shortcoming was a lack of case studies and examples of how to apply the Code. This licensing agreement makes all of the CFAI’s Code and Standards developed over several decades available to MTA members. For CMT candidates, this licensing agreement provides clear readings which will make studying for the exam a more efficient process. In short, there are no changes required of MTA members to meet the requirements of the new Code and Standards. One benefit is that there are now examples of how to apply ethics in everyday situations. Another benefit is the clear material that CMT candidates will have to study ethics so that there will be no surprises on the exam related to ethics. In short, we have found a risk-free opportunity to partner with the CFA Institute and we are excited to begin the next stage of the MTA’s growth. We also have articles related to the tools technicians use to analyze the markets and the techniques they apply to find profitable trading opportunities. As always, we welcome your feedback on what you would like to see in future issues of Technically Speaking. Please let us know by emailing us at editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2015 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-may-2015 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:31:41 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:31:41 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44248 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 359620 [post_id] => 44248 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:4:"1375";} ) [9] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 44322 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2015-04-15 12:00:33 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-04-15 16:00:33 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Once a year, the MTA Symposium assembles a lineup of great speakers yet some of the best technicians attending are in the audience. Symposiums have long been one of the most valuable of MTA membership and now technology makes it possible to extend that benefit to all members. Videos of the presentations will soon be available on line. Discussion forums on the MTA web site allow members to exchange ideas about the presentations or any other topic of interest.  In this month’s Technically Speaking we try to start the conversation about speakers with an article featuring the wisdom of a few presenters. This month’s newsletter also highlights the fact that chapter meetings offer another way for members to hear from great speakers. Leslie Jouflas, CMT, shares insights from Market Wizard Ed Seykota’s recent presentation in Washington. We also have new ideas about how to apply the principles of technical analysis in this issue and we’d like to hear from you about how you apply those principles. If you have ideas for articles in upcoming issues of the newsletter, please send me a note at editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, April 2015 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-april-2015 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:31:40 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:31:40 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44322 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 361838 [post_id] => 44322 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [10] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 44447 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2015-02-15 12:00:44 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-02-15 17:00:44 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

This year marks the 42nd anniversary of the MTA. We tend to ignore anniversary years unless they end in 0 or 5 but each year is important to the organization. Each of the past 42 years has presented the MTA with opportunities for growth along with occasional challenges that have to be met. The fact that we are now nearly 42 years old as an organization is a tribute to the volunteers who have led the MTA. Most of us rarely think about the leadership of the MTA. That fact indicates that they are doing an outstanding job because we tend to worry only about major problems. No major problems means no worries about the MTA. This month, I’d like to join Dave Keller, CMT, and Past President of the MTA in asking you to think about our organization’s leadership. In particular, as Dave notes, it’s time to nominate individuals to serve on the Board of Directors. Individuals in these positions will help set the pace for growth in the next 42 years. If you know of the right person to meet that responsibility, please nominate them. Getting the best people involved in the MTA has allowed most of us to ignore the problems that the Board solves effortlessly while keeping us on the right path. Please submit your recommendations to nominations@mta.org and help us to continue growing the MTA. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, February 2015 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-february-2015 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:30:26 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:30:26 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44447 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 364766 [post_id] => 44447 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_6_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [11] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 44625 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2014-11-15 12:00:12 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-11-15 17:00:12 [post_content] =>

Letter From The Editor 

Many readers already know that Fred Dickson, CMT, passed away at the end of October.  In this issue, we look at an example of his work. It is an amazing example of clarity and focus and provides an example of how to turn ideas into actions.  Fred dedicated much of his life to helping others turn ideas into actions. As with most great individuals, outstanding professional accomplishments are just one small part of their life.  Gail Dudack, CMT, notes, "Fred was probably the smartest and most gentile person i have known.  And while he had a great reputation on Wall Street and CNBC, his true passion was counseling people who needed help and he did this for decades as deacon of his church.  He was always there if you needed him.  But his greatest passion was his harem: wife Linda, daughters Kathy and Barbara." Fred also played a significant role in turning the ideas of technical analysis into a respected profession.  It is impossible to overstate the impact Fred had on the MTA.  He became a member in September 1978 and served as president from 1983 tom 1984.  Fred earned his CMT designation in April 1991. Ralph Acampora, CMT, credits Fred with kick starting the CMT program.  Ralph noted that Fred personally wrote the first 300 questions for the exam.  Ralph also recalled that there was a period of time when the MTA Library was homeless and Fred stepped in to keep the library functioning.  Along with his wife, Linda, Fred moved the books to his garage and made them available to members while the MTA looked for a new home. In all likelihood, Fred would prefer that we take inspiration from his life rather than isolated memories.  Even if never had the opportunity to meet Fred, consider Gail Dudack's comments as a summary of his personality and consider Ralph's recollections as a summary of his commitment to his profession.  We can all find inspiration in his life and acting on those inspirations would be the legacy Fred would desire and deserves. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2014 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-november-2014 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:30:54 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:30:54 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44625 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 368065 [post_id] => 44625 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_3_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [12] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 44811 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2014-08-15 12:00:54 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-08-15 16:00:54 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Technically Speaking includes an interview with a practicing technical analyst almost every month. This month, we feature Amber Hestla-Barnhart’s exchange with Cynthia A. Kase, CMT, MFTA. Cynthia’s interview is striking for several reasons. A standard question in each interview is “What advice would you have for someone starting in the business today?” The answers to this question are always interesting. This month, Cynthia provides a list of what every technician should consider as they strive for success. All readers, new and experienced analysts, should consider spending a few hours working through this list. Cynthia lists 13 short pieces of advice in her answer. Each one of them is important. Technical analysts, and any other professional, will need to “be realistic about the “cost” of meeting your goals. Be prepared to “pay the price.” The other twelve items on the list are equally succinct but could require hours of thought to understand. If you find these interviews and our other content to be valuable, or if you would like to be the subject of an interview, please email us at editor@mta.org to provide your thoughts. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, August 2014 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-august-2014 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:31:23 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:31:23 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44811 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 372300 [post_id] => 44811 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_5_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [13] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 44846 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2014-07-15 12:00:33 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-07-15 16:00:33 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

In 1994, the MTA recognized Don Worden’s achievements with the MTA Annual Award. This award recognizes lifelong outstanding contribution to the development and widespread acceptance of technical analysis by institutional practitioners and individual investors. Don Worden truly did spend his lifetime making technical analysis accessible to institutions and individuals. Sadly, Don passed away on May 31, 2014 at the age of 82. He was born before technical analysis was a formal field of study. His work from the 1950’s has led to a number of advances in technical analysis. He was a pioneer in the analysis of volume and his thoughts on how to interpret volume evolved as the markets changed. That might be Don’s greatest contribution to technical analysis – his ability to think about the markets as they are and to change his approach when the markets changed. Too many analysts impose rigid beliefs on the market and apply indicators with strict rules, ignoring changes in the market environment and risking losses as those changes render indicators less effective. In “Tape Reading in the Sleepy Fifties” we have Don’s own words to tell us how and why his thinking changed over a 40-year period. When an indicator stopped working, he explains, he sought to understand why and then built on his previous work.  In honor of Don’s contributions, we are also featuring the work of another pioneer in volume analysis, Buff Dormeier, CMT. Buff has quantified a unique approach to volume analysis and his work deserves a place next to Don Worden’s. In future issues, we hope to continue demonstrating how thought leaders in technical analysis think about their work. If you would like more details on a particular technician’s work, please send your suggestions to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2014 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-july-2014 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:31:25 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:31:25 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44846 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 372766 [post_id] => 44846 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [14] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 44891 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2014-06-15 12:00:50 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-06-15 16:00:50 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

You probably noticed we changed the format of Technically Speaking. The new one-column format is in response to feedback from readers. This format should make it easier to read and print the newsletter. Hopefully you have not noticed any change in the quality of the content.  Each month, we strive to bring you useful information and our focus on highquality content will never change. We will continue fine tuning the format over the next few months and each small change should make the newsletter more readable. Please let us know what you think of the new style and also, please continue sending your submissions to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, June 2014 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-june-2014 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:31:24 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:31:24 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44891 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 373653 [post_id] => 44891 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_1_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [15] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 44925 [post_author] => 35924 [post_date] => 2014-05-15 12:00:52 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-05-15 16:00:52 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

We are once again providing short summaries of several moments from the MTA Symposium and we will have more next month. As usual, there was too much information from the two-day event to summarize quickly.  In this month’s summary, we present information about the MTA Annual Award Winner Larry Williams, an article with lessons learned over a lifetime in the industry from Steve Leuthold and the rules for a complete trading strategy from Perry Kaufman. There is also a review of a book written by Michael E. S. Gayed, the late father of this year’s Charles H. Dow Award co-author Michael Gayed. This book was originally published in 1990. It was recently republished by the author’s son as a tribute to his father’s life and work. While the book is certainly a tribute to an insightful mind, it is also a modern day primer on what’s important in the markets. The section on economic indicators is one of the most practical collections of indicators ever assembled, and each section concludes with a clear opinion about the indicator’s usefulness. We hope you enjoy this issue and ask you to please continue sending your submissions and comments to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2014 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-may-2014 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:31:20 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:31:20 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=44925 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 374170 [post_id] => 44925 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"1138";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [16] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 45291 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2013-12-15 12:00:19 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-12-15 17:00:19 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

In this month’s newsletter, we are presenting a diverse group of articles to show the breadth of the work being done within the field of technical analysis. While each article offers a different viewpoint, all of the authors use a number of charts. This is an unchanging feature of technical analysis, even in a time when there is an increased ability to quantify data. Complex analysis can be clarified with a chart.  In this note, is an example of how Kirk Northington, CMT, and Carson Dahlberg, CMT, of Northington Dahlberg Research have developed a method to visualize risk and reward. They have converted the potential gains and losses on a trade to MACD-style histogram and found an effective way to visualize the data. Technical analysis is changing, but it also remaining true to its roots and using visual tools to explain complex analysis. If you would like to share your work in this area, please email us at editor@mta.org. Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2013 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-december-2013 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:33:23 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:33:23 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=45291 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 379860 [post_id] => 45291 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_5_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [17] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 45393 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2013-11-15 12:00:05 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-11-15 17:00:05 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Magazine covers are a widely followed market indicator. Paul MacRae Montgomery first noted the link between covers and markets and explained that popular media can be a contrary indicator of the markets. Covers have also been the subject of academic research that supported their use as an indicator. A 2007 paper by three University of Richmond professors, Are Cover Stories Effective Contrarian Indicators, “study found a statistically significant correlation between appearance on the cover of one of the magazines and the subsequent performance of the company's stock.” This month, Tom Vician provides a survey of the magazine indicator with a number of charts. Technical analysis is built on charts and Tom’s work is helpful for technicians who want to understand this indicator in historical context. We conclude this issue with a classical interpretation of charts prepared by Susan Berger, who learned to analyze charts while working for John Edwards. Her work shows how durable the basic principles of technical analysis are and how ideas contained in books written nearly seventy years ago are still relevant. If you would like to comment on Technically Speaking or share your work with the MTA membership, please email us at editor@mta.org. Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2013 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-november-2013 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:33:23 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:33:23 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=45393 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 381656 [post_id] => 45393 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_3_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [18] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 45748 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2013-10-15 12:00:42 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-10-15 16:00:42 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Like every other field of study, technical analysis has a history that is important to study. The history of technical analysis includes research related to charts and indicators. This history also includes the stories of the people who advanced the field. This month we look at one of those individuals in detail. Joe Granville rose to fame as a technical analyst in the 1960’s and 1970’s. In the future, it might not be possible for any other analyst to achieve his level of popularity. Markets are larger now and the time when one individual’s forecasts can move markets has likely passed. But Joe lived when that was possible and he did move the market on several occasions. In addition to the past, articles in this issue of Technically Speaking also cover the present state of technical analysis with several pieces of applied analysis. You can always email us at editor@mta.org to share your perspectives on the past, present and future of technical analysis. Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2013 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-october-2013 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:33:49 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:33:49 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=45748 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 387764 [post_id] => 45748 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_1_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [19] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 45792 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2013-09-15 12:00:06 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-09-15 16:00:06 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Traders around the world are reacting to what they think the Federal Reserve might do in the coming months. Fed officials have repeatedly tried to calm the markets by explaining they have no firm plans for managing the end of their latest Quantitative Easing initiative. For some reason, traders seem to be nervous about assurances. No one really seems to know what will happen next. In this month’s newsletter, we have the insights of technicians from around the world. We are able to feature assessments of markets in the U.S., Canada, and the Philippines. We also have several charts showing the recent activity in India. Hopefully in the future we can provide analysis of markets in other countries. There are now MTA Members in 85 countries. We have no way of knowing where the next global hot spot will be but we can be fairly certain an MTA member will be providing analysis on that market. If you prepare reports on some of the less widely covered markets, or on the more popular markets, please consider them sharing them with the MTA through Technically Speaking. You can email us at editor@mta.org. Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2013 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-september-2013 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:34:19 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:34:19 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=45792 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 388669 [post_id] => 45792 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_3_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [20] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 45839 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2013-08-15 12:00:34 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-08-15 16:00:34 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

We are starting this month’s newsletter with an article that challenges the traditional models used to explain market prices. Dr. Ben Hunt argues that just as the heliocentric model of the solar system replaced a geocentric model over time, long-held beliefs about markets need to be reexamined and updated to reflect new knowledge. Fortunately, Dr. Hunt points out that there is a market theory which lays the groundwork for a new understanding of market:

“Technical analysis is, at its heart, behavioral analysis, and as such is prime real estate to build a new investment paradigm that incorporates game theoretic behaviors.”

This is a thought-provoking piece that is followed by a practical example of how the MTA Educational Foundation is working to further this goal. We then have practical examples of how the theory of technical analysis is applied in the real world. I hope you are a part of the theoretical and practical changes that are occurring in the financial community. If you would like to share your thoughts on those changes, please email us at editor@mta.org. Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, August 2013 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-august-2013 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:34:20 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:34:20 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=45839 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 389447 [post_id] => 45839 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_1_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"1719";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [21] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 45885 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2013-07-15 12:00:32 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-07-15 16:00:32 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

This month’s issue of Technically Speaking offers some of the theory underlying technical analysis and several examples of how this theory is applied. The applications are specific and although diverse, charts are central to each.  Although many of us have a number of quantitative tools at our disposal, price charts remain an indispensible part of technical analysis. For that reason, a number of charts are shown. Jay Lefkowicz, CFA, CMT, uses long-term charts to make a bullish argument for U.S. stocks. Aksel Kibar, CMT, offers insights into some markets U.S.-based analysts may overlook. Nishant Bali ties together principles of market sentiment and intermarket analysis to build the bearish case for U.S. stocks. Each analysis is unique but well-structured and persuasive. We would like the opportunity to include the work of other MTA members in future issues of Technically Speaking. If you publish research on a regular basis, please consider adding editor@mta.org to your distribution list. Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2013 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-july-2013 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:34:19 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:34:19 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=45885 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 390027 [post_id] => 45885 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [22] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 45949 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2013-06-15 12:00:46 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-06-15 16:00:46 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

We focus on the practical in this month’s newsletter. From trading psychology to trading tools and trading strategies, we have tried to provide you with new ideas that you can apply in the slow summer market. Of course, the slow summer market is probably a myth but we all need to find time to explore ideas and tools that might help us become better at what we do. Trading seems to be the point where theory meets practice in technical analysis. Hopefully you will find the techniques and tools we highlight to be useful. Although trading is often associated with short-term analysis, many traders analyze long-term data. In the long-term, stocks can move up or down just as they do in the short-term. SRC Stock Charts offer a long-term perspective on markets and we conclude this issue with a chart of Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index. The Nikkei ended May with a one-week loss of 15% but is up about 50% in the last year. Shortterm volatility can mask the relentless down trend that defines that market. Over the past 25 years, the Nikkei has lost an average of 2.8% a year. Please email us with suggestions for other long-term charts to highlight the ups and downs of trading for a living. We can be reached at editor@mta.org. Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, June 2013 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-june-2013 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:34:20 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:34:20 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=45949 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 390932 [post_id] => 45949 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_1_contributor [meta_value] => a:3:{i:0;s:5:"24742";i:1;s:5:"45955";i:2;s:4:"7251";} ) [23] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 46143 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2013-03-15 12:00:06 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-03-15 16:00:06 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

The MTA has long recognized the value of diverse techniques in the field of technical analysis. In this month’s newsletter we try to live up to that tradition and present both visual and quantifiable approaches to analysis. We start with an overview of the career of John Bollinger, CFA, CMT. We then summarize the career of Susan Berger who has spent 45 years working in technical analysis (so far) using the techniques she learned from John Magee. It is fascinating to read how Susan did things when working with Magee. It is equally fascinating to think back at the advance that Bollinger Bands represented when they were introduced about 15 years into Susan’s career. Chart paper and grids for calculating indicators were being replaced by personal computers in the 1980’s and John Bollinger was among the first to recognize that new environment. He introduced an indicator that would have been unthinkably complex to implement in the 1970’s. Several newer techniques are also featured in articles by Scott Hathaway and Alan Hall who works with Dr. Robert Pechter, Jr., CMT, at the Socionomics Institute. Dr. Prechter will be sharing his latest work at the MTA Symposium in a few weeks along with a number of other speakers. The Symposium will truly be a showcase for the diverse techniques of technical analysis as an amazing group of experts share their research and experience. As always, we would appreciate receiving any comments you have on the newsletter, which can be emailed to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, March 2013 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-march-2013 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:34:36 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:34:36 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=46143 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 393792 [post_id] => 46143 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:4:"2835";} ) [24] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 46191 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2013-02-15 12:00:12 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-02-15 17:00:12 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

In February, the MTA is recognizing Women in Finance and will be featuring webcasts by experts in technical analysis who also happen to be women. We have tried to recognize the contributions some women have made to technical analysis in this issue of Technically Speaking. The MTA has a long history of recognizing the role of women in finance including Bernadette Murphy, CMT, who served as the fifth president of the organization in 1977. We also briefly highlight the work of another past President, Gail Dudack, CMT, in this month’s newsletter along with brief articles about the work of Louise Yamada, CMT and Jeanette Schwarz Young, CFP, CMT. While celebrating the fortieth anniversary of the MTA, it is interesting to note that the MTA has always focused on “attract(ing) and retain(ing) a membership of professionals devoting their efforts to using and expanding the field of technical analysis and sharing their body of knowledge with their fellow members.” Those words in found in the MTA constitution and history shows that women just happen to have been among the leading contributors to the body of knowledge over the years. We would appreciate receiving any comments you have on the newsletter, which can be emailed to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, February 2013 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-february-2013 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:34:32 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:34:32 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=46191 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 395130 [post_id] => 46191 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:5:"24744";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [25] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 46361 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2012-10-15 12:00:49 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-10-15 16:00:49 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Once again, we have tried to present a broad array of work in technical analysis to you in this month’s issue. Eric Leake uses economic news and interest rates to discuss the outlook for high yield bonds. Scott Hathaway applies geometric techniques to the gold market.  Larry Berman, CMT, CFA, CTA, and Keith Richards, CMT, offer general trading guidance that they first offered on MTA blogs. While Larry points out that Canadian investors need to watch global events, this is good advice for traders and investors in any country. There is an increasing degree of globalization in the markets and events in any country could set off a global crash. Keith highlights the role of the Federal Reserve, a force that no analyst can ignore anymore. We wrap up with a very brief look at two bubbles – tulips and subprime mortgages share some similarities that could help us spot future bubbles. I would appreciate any feedback you have on bubbles or any comments you have on our newsletter. Email us at editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2012 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-october-2012 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:34:54 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:34:54 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=46361 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 397050 [post_id] => 46361 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [26] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 46506 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2012-07-15 12:00:59 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-07-15 16:00:59 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

In this month’s issue, we provide summaries of several additional presentations that were made at the Market Technicians Association Annual Symposium in April. We included several summaries in last month’s issue. Speakers included some of the best minds in the technical analysis community and the presentations are filled with actionable ideas. The presentations we’ve summarized over the past two months along with several additional presentations can be viewed online at http://go.mta.org/505. We are always appreciative of your feedback and look forward to hearing your thoughts on Technically Speaking. You can email us at editor@mta.org. Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2012 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-july-2012 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:35:00 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:35:00 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=46506 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 398193 [post_id] => 46506 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:4:"3059";} ) [27] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 46534 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2012-06-15 12:00:18 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-06-15 16:00:18 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

The Market Technicians Association has always been at the forefront of technical analysis and in this issue we demonstrate some of the ways the organization is doing that. We provide summaries of a few of the presentations made at the Annual Symposium in May which included thought provoking and practical ideas. More summaries will be in next month’s issue. We also offer a review of a book by Paul Ciana, CMT. New Frontiers in Technical Analysis includes some original research from Paul and features the work of several other technicians, including some members. This book adds to the Body of Knowledge of technical analysis with the new techniques that are presented and for those without access to a Bloomberg terminal it delivers details on what the most commonly used features of that system are. Last month, while acknowledging those recognized by the Awards Committee, I inadvertently overstated the role that George Lane had in the development of the stochastics.  George Schade, Jr., CMT, provides corrected information in a Letter to the Editor that is included in this month’s issue. George’s work is another example of the leadership that members have in the field. He has studied in depth the history of technical analysis and is an invaluable resource to the organization and this newsletter. Please let us know what you think about Technically Speaking by emailing us at editor@mta.org. Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, June 2012 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-june-2012 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:35:07 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:35:07 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=46534 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 398791 [post_id] => 46534 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:5:"46536";} ) [28] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 46561 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2012-05-15 12:00:47 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-05-15 16:00:47 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

As an organization, the MTA has a strong sense of history. One of the ways the MTA chronicles the history of technical analysis and the organization is through its Annual Awards program. Individuals from the past who have made contributions to the field are honored at the Annual Symposium. This year, six individuals were commended for their work and we present small summaries of their accomplishments. We also include history in this newsletter as often as possible. This month, we conclude with a summary of the Darvas Box, a trading technique developed by Nicolas Darvas. Although better known as a dancer than a market analyst, Darvas wrote a New York Times Best Seller in the late 1950s that highlighted the value of technical analysis to the public. Technicians working with screening software can easily automate his approach instead of relying on weekly issues of Barron’s as Darvas did more than fifty years ago. This issue also offers an extract of a recent academic paper that discusses some of the topics that are explained poorly in finance textbooks. This material could help some who are trying to explain the benefits of technical analysis to academics. Beta and the equity risk premium may be ill defined, yet cornerstones of pricing theories. Technical analysis offers an adaptive approach to investment theory and could be more useful in real-world trading than concepts like that. As always, we enjoy learning what you think about Technically Speaking. Please email us at editor@mta.org. Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2012 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-may-2012 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:35:17 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:35:17 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=46561 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 399364 [post_id] => 46561 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [29] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 46586 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2012-04-15 12:00:52 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-04-15 16:00:52 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

This issue starts with an update on the CMT Program. The recent addition of Bob Johnson to the Program is a step toward making a great program even better. The rest of the issue is a collection of insights from practitioners in the field. Classic chart patterns still form the core of the discipline, but the patterns are being used in a number of different ways and the articles that follow will show just a small sample of the type of work technicians are doing today. Please let us know what you think about Technically Speaking by sending an email to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Michael Carr [post_title] => Technically Speaking, April 2012 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-april-2012 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:47:56 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:47:56 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=46586 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 399640 [post_id] => 46586 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:5:"24874";} ) [30] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 46756 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2012-01-15 12:00:23 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-01-15 17:00:23 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

We are starting the New Year for the newsletter by offering you a variety of topics. Hopefully we are reflecting the wide variety of work members of the MTA are doing in the real world. Celebrating the New Year involves a number of traditions and applying technical analysis is also rooted in a number of traditional tools, many of which are updated and applied in unique ways. We feature the work of Eric Leake and John Kosar, CMT, showing how they are applying traditional tools to create valuable forecasts. Jeb Handwerger applies these types of tools to a market that isn’t widely followed, rare earth metals, but is in the news quite frequently. Ken Safian has long been applying traditional tools in an untraditional way to economic data in addition to following the stock markets with a technical-based approach. We also highlight a new book from Christopher Grafton, CMT, which explains a traditional tool, cycles, in a new way. Please let us know what you are doing and allow us to share your application of the tools of technical analysis to the readers of Technically Speaking by sending an email to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, January 2012 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-january-2012 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-25 13:21:33 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 17:21:33 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=46756 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 402252 [post_id] => 46756 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_5_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:5:"31624";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [31] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 46950 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-12-15 12:00:27 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-12-15 17:00:27 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

This month, we have tried to collect examples of thought provoking analysis techniques. Several members have contributed their unique perspectives and our hope is that others can benefit from the ideas they share. This issue is focused on the practical aspects of technical analysis. As a group technicians tend to focus on obtaining practical results in the markets. Being right is secondary to making money. That means the analysis presented may be outdated by the time you read this. They are still valuable examples of the analytical process. We’ve been using this new format for several months and would appreciate any feedback you have. The goal of Technically Speaking has always been to offer interesting information about technical analysis and the MTA, but over time the format has changed. Please let us know what we can do to deliver content that meets your needs by sending an email to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-december-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-25 13:23:26 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 17:23:26 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=46950 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 404971 [post_id] => 46950 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_8_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [32] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47060 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-11-15 12:00:02 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-11-15 17:00:02 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Our Ethics Corner feature has generated some feedback, and this month we are revisiting the first case study we presented. As expected, there is room for differences of opinion on ethics questions. In part, the growth of international membership in the MTA should guarantee some discussion on ethics. Laws differ among countries and cultural differences are greater than many assume. Perhaps the only undeniable truth in ethics is that people are not all alike. Different people hold different opinions, which is the underlying reason we have a market to trade. While cultural differences must be considered in any situation, the Standards defined in the MTA Code of Ethics are mandatory for all members and affiliates. While there may be a less strict requirement defined in local laws at times, the Code of Ethics requires that the stricter rules of the Code must be the guide. Obviously if the law is stricter than the Code of Ethics, the Code does not offer an excuse for breaking the law. We look forward to continuing discussions on ethics. It is important to our profession to hear as many opinions as possible. By understanding why some scenarios present “grey zones” we can make professional ethics stronger. Please send any comments to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-november-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-25 13:23:13 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 17:23:13 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47060 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 406202 [post_id] => 47060 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [33] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47100 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-10-15 12:00:22 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-10-15 16:00:22 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

The MTA Educational Foundation (MTAEF) will be cosponsoring an event marking the 160th anniversary of the birth of Charles Dow. On November 3, there will be a celebration at the Museum of American Finance. You can learn more at http://go.mta.org/117 Among the speakers will be Robert W. Colby, CMT. We have included an article he wrote several years ago about Dow Theory in this month’s newsletter. It is the first of several articles we are offering on the revered technical tool in this month’s Technically Speaking. Paul Shread, CMT, offers a more detailed look at several aspects of the Theory. We are also offering highlights of a presentation that Ralph Acampora, CMT, made in May 2009 on the Dow Theory. Ralph will be the Master of Ceremonies at the event. We are continuing our efforts to provide members and affiliates with more information about ethics, not because that is a problem area within our organization but because it is what helps define us as professionals. Like the Dow Theory, the MTA’s Code of Ethics has also proven to be timeless. We would appreciate any suggestions you have on topics to cover in upcoming Ethics Corner articles. Please send them to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-october-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-25 13:23:08 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 17:23:08 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47100 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 407125 [post_id] => 47100 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [34] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47136 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-09-15 12:00:44 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-09-15 16:00:44 [post_content] =>

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

In this month’s newsletter, we discuss ethics in two of our articles. There isn’t any reason except professionalism for this. Members of the MTA strictly follow the Code of Ethics, and concerns are rarely brought before the Ethics Committee. Even rarer is the need for the Ethics Committee to take any action. Ethics articles will simply be featured as a reminder of the professionalism and high standards of the Market Technicians Association. Membership in the MTA and earning the CMT designation demonstrate that research and opinions are based on facts and are supportable. As professionals, CMTs have studied the body of knowledge that defines technical analysis and are committed to delivering information that is based on the body of knowledge. Many members of the MTA complete their own research and help advance the profession.  We hope that you’ll find these ethics articles as interesting as the rest of the topics we cover. If you have ideas for articles you’d like to see, please let us know with an email to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-september-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-25 13:23:00 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 17:23:00 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47136 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 408220 [post_id] => 47136 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [35] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47160 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-08-15 12:00:50 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-08-15 16:00:50 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

Last month, we carried the news that Julie Dahlquist, PhD, CMT, had been named as the new editor for the Journal of Technical Analysis, which is the scholarly publication of our organization. Many of us look forward to the next issue, as we always have, to learn the details of new techniques in our field and to see examples of in-depth research topics. Research articles can also be submitted to this newsletter. Generally, shorter articles will be found in the newsletter while detailed and thorough examinations of a topic are more suitable for the journal. The monthly publication schedule also allows for immediate feedback to the author from the thousands of members around the world who will see the article. Hopefully you’ll find the research being offered in Technically Speaking useful. We’ve also included member profiles in this issue, which may help newer members see that there is no single career path in the field. MTA members have varied backgrounds, and success is determined by hard work more than any other factor. We strive to provide content that is useful, readable, and varied. If you have ideas for articles you’d like to see, please let us know with an email to editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, August 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-august-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-10 21:23:39 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-11 01:23:39 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47160 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 408661 [post_id] => 47160 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [36] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47185 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-07-15 12:00:45 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-07-15 16:00:45 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

This issue contains a few more summaries of MTA Symposium speaker presentations. There were two other presentations that no one should miss, but are in some ways too important to offer in summary form. The Technician’s Technician Panel brought together the technical analysts employed by the largest firms. Jordan Kotick, CMT, Managing Director and Head of Technical Trading Strategy for Barclays Capital, led the discussion and shared the stage with: While their market views and favorite techniques differ, all of these esteemed analysts share one opinion. They agreed that technical analysis is in a bull market and opportunities are more plentiful than ever in this field. Always popular, the Market Forecast Panel brings several distinguished technicians together to discuss what they see in the markets and how they think the future will unfold. Rather than trying to present the views of Ralph Acampora, Dr. Hank Pruden, Ken Tower and Chris Cady into simple bullish or bearish calls, the video of this discussion should be watched in full. What is most important is the thought process that some of the greatest minds in technical analysis apply to formulate their opinions. Each uses a different approach, and each has attained a great deal of success with their technique. As we work on future issues, we would like to hear what is important to you, our readers. Please let me know what you’d like to see in upcoming issues. The MTA Directory lists my phone number, or email editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-july-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-10 21:52:44 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-11 01:52:44 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47185 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 409189 [post_id] => 47185 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_1_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"2506";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [37] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47207 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-06-15 12:00:34 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-06-15 16:00:34 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

Every May, the MTA holds its Annual Symposium and technicians converge in New York to see old friends, meet new ones, and learn about the markets. This year was the largest gathering in history, with 350 members and affiliates from around the world gathering at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The venue offered an interesting perspective on technical analysis. One of the fundamental principles of technical analysis is that history repeats itself. Without thinking, the NYSE seems to be a symbol of change, at least in the modern era. Electronic algorithms and high frequency trading have reshaped the investment landscape, and the Exchange has been on the leading edge of technology to adapt to penny spreads and an ever-evolving market structure. On breaks, the Symposium attendees had a chance to wander the hallowed halls of finance sitting at the corner of Wall and Broad. Some history is displayed in those halls, a collection of pictures and memorabilia. In some ways, the Symposium was what it must feel like for a baseball fan to wander through the Hall of Fame at Cooperstown while getting to talk to the players who will have their plaques in the future. Wandering those halls on a break, I read a letter to the Exchange written by Thomas Edison on August 24. 1882. He asked for permission to run a line from the exchange for his own data service, promising to transmit quicker and more reliable data. That letter seemed to sum up technical analysis. Investors never change; they always want an edge in the markets. History is a lot like a series of repetitive themes that play out in different ways each time. The NYSE displays proof that investors wanted faster and cleaner data for at least the past 130 years. Odds are, that will still be an issue in the twenty-second century. History also repeats within the MTA. Every May, there is an Annual Symposium that benefits members with unique opportunities and market perspectives. It’s only June, but many are already looking forward to next May. In this issue of Technically Speaking, we present brief summaries of a few of the presentations. We’ll offer more details on other presentations in the next issue. Videos of the presentation will soon be available in the MTA archives, and every presentation is worth watching, or re-watching for those fortunate enough to have been there. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, June 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-june-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-11 15:59:49 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-11 19:59:49 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47207 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 409894 [post_id] => 47207 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:3:{i:0;s:3:"768";i:1;s:3:"772";i:2;s:4:"7251";} ) [38] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47227 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-05-15 12:00:13 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-05-15 16:00:13 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

This issue covers several basics of technical analysis. It’s often helpful to step back from the complexity we create in our field and review the time tested ideas that technical analysis has been built on. George Schade, CMT, offers a historical perspective on the widely used stochastic oscillator. He has painstakingly researched the origin of this indicator and shows us how it was developed and explains the history of the indicator. We often forget that there was time before computers and data was difficult to obtain, and very expensive when it was found. This article takes us back in time to those simpler times, which in many ways required deeper market analysis and a greater understanding of how prices moved. Phil Roth, CMT, details his recent experience of teaching technical analysis at a university. Phil is a major contributor to the course developed by the MTA Educational Foundation, and those wanting to learn more about the Foundation’s work can stop by their workshop at the Annual Symposium, or they can contact the Foundation directly. The ready-made course is a comprehensive summary of technical analysis, and is a tribute to Phil and those he worked with on its development. I am hoping to meet many of our readers at the MTA Symposium this month. My opinion is that this annual event is one of the most valuable benefits of membership, and judging from the fact that the event has sold out, I am not alone in that assessment. Please let me know when we meet what articles you’d like to see in upcoming issues of the newsletter, or email me at editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-may-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-11 16:41:09 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-11 20:41:09 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47227 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 410737 [post_id] => 47227 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_6_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [39] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47256 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-04-15 12:00:07 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-04-15 16:00:07 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

We’re featuring a couple longer articles this month, which we think fit well in our newsletter. George Rahal takes a detailed look at quantifying potential rewards relative to risk, an important trading consideration. His contribution is well written and understandable to the novice trading system developer while offering new insights to veteran programmers. Andy Ratkai, CFA, recently prepared a report for his clients that brought together several interesting macro insights. In a way, he ties wave analysis into behavioral finance and raises a number of thought-provoking ideas. Buff Dormeier, CMT, continues to share high quality research on methods for applying volume to market analysis. He recently released a book which adds to the Body of Knowledge of Technical Analysis while offering actionable guidance for traders. It’s also that rare book which is interesting and a fun read. Although we never make guarantees in our profession, I am confident that I could guarantee everyone will learn something form this book as Buff combines historical stories with new techniques. Next month, many members will gather at the Annual Symposium in New York. This event is always well-attended and highly educational. It’s also an opportunity to meet other members, and I hope to meet many of you so that I can learn what you expect from your newsletter. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, April 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-april-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-11 17:26:42 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-11 21:26:42 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47256 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 411033 [post_id] => 47256 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"1559";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [40] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47280 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-03-15 12:00:51 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-03-15 16:00:51 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

This month, we are simply highlighting the success of technical analysis. The MTA remains at the forefront of the field and its general acceptance throughout the investment community. In this issue, the success of another regional seminar is detailed. These one-day seminars play host to over 200 attendees and will undoubtedly continue to be well-attended wherever they are held. We also feature an article highlighting the technical analysis of noted analysts Jeremy Grantham and David Rosenberg. While Grantham may not admit to being a technician, his work is easily recognized to members of the MTA as technical analysis. Rosenberg has a large audience and frequently offers technical analysis, helping to increase the acceptance of technical analysis among institutional investors. It seems obvious now that the widespread acceptance of technical analysis in the investment community took a giant step forward when the CMT exam process was introduced. Two articles detail parts of that process: Lance McDonald describes studying and Brad Herndon describes grading. Academia frequently looks at technical concepts and uses different terms to describe well-know concepts. As one example, academic papers about momentum are easily recognized as relative strength strategies by practitioners of technical analysis. An article by George Rahal bridges the divide between behavioral finance (in academic terms) and technical analysis. Please let us know what you’d like to see in future issues of Technically Speaking. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, March 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-march-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-11 17:55:30 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-11 21:55:30 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47280 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 411564 [post_id] => 47280 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_5_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"1286";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [41] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47295 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-02-15 12:00:55 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-02-15 17:00:55 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

Technical analysis has a rich, and little studied, history. MTA members are doubtlessly aware of this and understand that their membership helps them unlock a great deal of the available history. Thousands of books fill the shelves of the MTA library, some of them are the original works in their field of study. This is one of the most popular benefits of membership. As technology changed, the historical archive of any field has expanded to include videos as well. Taking advantage of the leading edge of technology, the MTA has captured the thinking of some of the leading technicians in the world and provides videos of these presentations. In recent issues of Technically Speaking, we have been featuring video presentations that are available in the archives section of the member’s section of the MTA web site. We believe there is great value in reviewing these and find that the true principles of technical analysis are timeless. Spending an hour looking at the current thinking of technicians from the time of a market bottom or top shows not only how they thought then, but with the advantage of hindsight you also know if it worked. That allows you to adapt that thinking to the market, learning from both what worked and what didn’t work. We’ve long recognized that these resources help us to become better technicians. Recently, the MTA Board of Directors adopted a voluntary Continuing Education program that formally recognizes the role of the library and the video archives. You can now earn CE credits for reading the classic works in our field and studying the video presentations of some of the best minds in our industry. Most members will easily meet the goals of this program without making any changes in their professional development program. There are many benefits of MTA membership, and the chance to learn so much about technical analysis from a variety of tools is only one of them. As always, we hope you consider this newsletter to be another valuable benefit of membership. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, February 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-february-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-11 18:28:32 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-11 22:28:32 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47295 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 411979 [post_id] => 47295 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:5:"47303";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [42] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47315 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2011-01-15 12:00:37 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-01-15 17:00:37 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

As we start a new year, many people take the time to reflect on where they are, and where they have been. Considering the state of our discipline at this time, we can note that technical analysis is widely accepted and well covered in the investment community. Bloomberg terminals dominate the professional landscape and offer news and analysis, but also charts and thousands of variations of charting. For those without access to these terminals, some type of charting software is the dominant application on their desktop. It is very likely that most MTA members and affiliates can’t even remember a time when technical analysis wasn’t widely accepted. More than a decade ago, day trading became popular, and these strategies more often than not involved technical tools. But only a decade before that, in the mid-1980s, technical analysis was limited to a small part of the investment community and FNN, the predecessor to CNBC, devoted only a small part of their programming to the subject. In many ways, we are experiencing the same lack of acceptance in the academic community. While many professors scoff at the tools we use profitably, in some ways it is just a debate rooted in semantics. Technicians focus on practical solutions, and academics focus on statistically valid proofs. The objective is the same but the language is different. In time, technical analysis will break down the barriers faced in academia, just as it gained acceptance among professionals and individual investors. The MTA is leading the way in this push, expanding membership among professionals and students, and taking steps to ensure that the CMT remains the gold standard level of professional certification. Hopefully, this newsletter meets your needs and helps further the goals of the MTA. With the introduction of the continuing education program, professionals can earn credits by contributing to the newsletter. Aspiring professionals, including those still in college, can distinguish themselves in the highly competitive job market by adding writing credits to their resumes. We look forward to serving you in the year ahead, Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, January 2011 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-january-2011 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-11 18:47:21 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-11 22:47:21 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47315 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 412353 [post_id] => 47315 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"1559";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [43] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47323 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2010-12-15 12:00:07 [post_date_gmt] => 2010-12-15 17:00:07 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

Technical analysis is a varied discipline, including such diverse forms of analysis as chart patterns, Elliott Wave, and relative strength. If this month’s newsletter has a theme, it could be described as “whatever works.” Larry Williams is a world renowned trader and first class researcher. He recently made a presentation to the Los Angeles chapter of the MTA. Those who have been fortunate enough to take in one of his many presentations always get a variety of ideas. Larry seems to look at any idea, adopting those that can lead to profits. He doesn’t appear to be interested in being right or being pigeon holed as an expert on any one topic. Everything he presents is simply designed to make money in the markets. We also have a summary of an archived video presentation that demonstrates ways to combine technical and fundamental data into a single trading opinion. Dennis Gartman explained his strategies more than a year ago. One advantage of using the archives for education and strategies is that you can look at how effective the ideas have been since they were presented. Gartman’s is yet another example of the timeless ideas available to traders and analysts in the MTA’s video archives. Finally, as I read the publications of the CFA Institute, I am struck by the number of articles that build on ideas rooted in technical analysis. This issue discusses one of those articles. Please consider sharing ways that you combine other disciplines with technical analysis. You can email them to editor@mta.org. We’d like to print your techniques in a future issue of Technically Speaking. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2010 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-december-2010 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-12 09:06:17 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-12 13:06:17 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47323 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 412591 [post_id] => 47323 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [44] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47345 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2010-11-15 12:00:34 [post_date_gmt] => 2010-11-15 17:00:34 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

Dr. Hank Pruden will receive the Mike Epstein Award later this month. The MTA Educational Foundation created this award to recognize those who make significant contributions to technical analysis in the academic community. Hank is without a doubt a worthy recipient. The MTA Educational Foundation was founded in 1993 to create and fund educational programs in the field of technical analysis. The mission was later expanded to include the creation and support of a complete technical analysis curriculum to be taught for credit in colleges and universities around the world. By the time the Foundation was established, Hank had almost twenty years experience in teaching technical analysis at the university level. He created not only a course, but was instrumental in developing a graduate-level certificate in technical analysis at Golden Gate University. Hank has long taught two courses in the Wyckoff Method, and has written a book that can be used at the Master’s degree level. In addition to representing the field of technical analysis in academia, Hank has a long history of success in the MTA and IFTA. He has presented to audiences around the world, and served as a roving global ambassador for technical analysis. Technically Speaking is honored to be among those extending congratulations to Hank on this well deserved recognition. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2010 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-november-2010 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-12 09:40:37 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-12 13:40:37 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47345 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 413401 [post_id] => 47345 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:3:"768";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [45] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47577 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2010-10-15 12:00:21 [post_date_gmt] => 2010-10-15 16:00:21 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

The Market Technicians Association is continuing to evolve and remain current. We try to capture that in this newsletter, highlighting some of the activities within the organization while featuring the analysis of members and introducing new ideas from the field of technical analysis. We are also introducing a new feature this month where we will review ethics in our profession. As we grow in stature in the financial community, it becomes more and more important to maintain the highest ethical standards. In fact, our Code of Ethics is one of the biggest benefits of membership – it ensures employers and clients that we follow rules, and that our work is based upon more than guesswork. This column will hopefully focus some thinking on ethics, which needs to be considered in all aspects of analysis. Relevancy of this newsletter depends on contributions from you. Consider publishing an example of your analysis or an insight into some aspect of the very dynamic field of technical analysis. We will maintain the highest standards of publication, so your work will be showcased along with other high quality writing. If you have anything you’d like to submit to Technically Speaking, or any comments about our newsletter, please email me at editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2010 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-october-2010 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-19 19:58:19 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-19 23:58:19 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47577 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 414999 [post_id] => 47577 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_1_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [46] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47693 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2010-09-15 12:00:51 [post_date_gmt] => 2010-09-15 16:00:51 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

This is the second issue where we provide a brief summary of a presentation available for viewing in the MTA video archives. Watching the speakers from years ago may seem like a nostalgic divergence from the current markets. Nothing could be further from the reality that these videos are an invaluable learning tool for novice and experienced technicians. The MTA has always served more as a breeding ground of ideas instead of a ‘stock tout club.’ In conversations with early members of the MTA, that is frequently mentioned as one of their goals. They wanted to have meetings where the ideas discussed would withstand the test of time. They felt there were plenty of opportunities to gather and exchange tips. The MTA was designed to be different. The video archives meet this goal in a way that the founding members never dreamed of as a possibility. Of course the technology that makes this possible was not known when the first meetings were held. At that time, New York City was the center of the organization, and the only place to have access to the expert presentations that have long been the standard of the New York meetings. I would guess the regional chapters and worldwide growth of the organization were never envisioned in their original discussions.  With the video archives, and other valuable services available through the MTA web site, you can benefit from membership without ever being in New York. We hope you find Technically Speaking to be one of the benefits of membership. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2010 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-september-2010 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-19 17:03:22 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-19 21:03:22 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47693 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 418097 [post_id] => 47693 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_6_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [47] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47721 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2010-08-15 12:00:46 [post_date_gmt] => 2010-08-15 16:00:46 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

The MTA Annual Award recognizes significant accomplishments in the field of technical analysis. It has been bestowed for pioneering work, an insightful innovation, or an extraordinary career. This year’s winner offers an example of an extraordinary career. Robert Peirce, the 2010 Annual Award winner is discussed briefly in this issue, and his story illustrates that technical analysis can be applied to investment management. All too often we hear that technical analysis is not widely accepted in the finance world. Nothing could be further from the truth, and Bob Peirce is but one  example among many where technical analysis was applied professionally. One problem that does damage the reputation of professional technicians is that many people attempt to apply technical analysis without possessing great skill or applying sound techniques. The best defense against the misconceptions inspired by poor analysis is quite possibly your MTA membership. We discuss that idea elsewhere in this issue and hope that all members will let potential employers and clients know that they are bound to follow the industry’s highest professional and ethical standards. Your MTA membership is proof of professionalism. As usual, we also offer examples of excellent analysis in Technically Speaking. Tom McClellan is advancing the work of his parents, and Sherman McClellan is another example of an individual who has enjoyed an extraordinary career in technical analysis. Their work is highlighted this month. We hope that the articles in this issue will inspire you to achieve greatness in your career as Robert Peirce and Sherman McClellan have. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, August 2010 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-august-2010 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-19 19:08:34 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-19 23:08:34 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47721 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 418510 [post_id] => 47721 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [48] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47737 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2010-07-15 12:00:48 [post_date_gmt] => 2010-07-15 16:00:48 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

Little has been written about Ichimoku Clouds, which were first used in the 1930s. They are visually compelling, yet little used in the world of technical analysis. In recent months, two books have been published exploring this topic. We have reviews of both in this month’s issue of Technically Speaking. Prior to the publication of these books, one of the most authoritative pieces on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo may be an article written by Véronique Lashinski, CMT, and published in the Journal of Technical Analysis (http://www.mta.org/eweb/dynamicpage.aspx?webcode=journal2008#section05). MTA members have always produced groundbreaking researching. Lashinski’s paper is just one example of the type of work that our members produce. In the newsletter this month, we offer another example of cutting edge technical analysis with David Waggoner’s article exploring the May Flash Crash. While regulators are still looking at what happened and how to prevent, Waggoner offers a practical insight into the crash. Finally, High Growth Stock Investor recently released a new version of their software. They did this almost at the same time we published a review of the older version last month. We are fortunate to be able to offer details on their product. This company is a long-time supporter of the MTA. They offer a 60 day trial to High Growth Stock Investor for free. This includes the software and daily EOD updates to a database of over 8,000 (NYSE,NASDAQ,AMEX) securities, major market indexes, mutual funds and commodities. After the trial period, they will offer a discount from our $59/month rate to $49.00/month for the first 12 months plus a 6 month free subscription to the Woodward and Brown Newsletter and Video, normally a $200.00 annual subscription. For the 60 day free trial, go to www.highgrowthstock.com/MTA. Many other companies support our organization. Please take a moment to look at them by visiting http://www.mta.org/eweb/dynamicpage.aspx?webcode=membership-discounts Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2010 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-july-2010 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-19 19:56:46 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-19 23:56:46 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47737 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 418725 [post_id] => 47737 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"1625";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [49] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47783 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2010-05-15 12:00:12 [post_date_gmt] => 2010-05-15 16:00:12 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

In this month’s issue of Technically Speaking, we proceed from the theoretical side of technical analysis to the practical application of technical analysis. The theory is important to understand, ideally before you start putting real money into trading ideas. Perhaps that last idea is what separates the professionals in our audience from the many failed traders that find technical analysis doesn’t work. It’s not that technical analysis doesn’t work – it’s more likely that the default settings of an indicator they saw on a web site don’t work. Several prominent technicians offer examples of what they have read over the years. Combined with the CMT reading list, which can be downloaded here, there is a lot to learn. If you haven’t reviewed that list in a few years, it’s worth taking a look at the changes that have been made over the past couple of years. The MTA library has many, if not all the technical analysis books that are worth reading. We also include two articles showing how to turn theory into actionable analysis as we attempt to continue offering something for everyone in each issue of the newsletter. Larry Berman’s analysis is long, but our electronic format allows us to reproduce it in its entirety. It can serve as a valuable example of quality analysis to those new to the profession. Finally, I’m looking forward to seeing many of you in New York City for the Annual Symposium. I’m not sure what the official numbers say, but the early registration seems to be much higher than last year and the attendees and speakers I’ve had a chance to speak with are enthusiastically looking forward to the event. If you haven’t decided to join us yet, please think about it. You won’t be disappointed and you’ll learn a lot, no matter how much you already know. While you’re in New York, you can also stop by the MTA library and see the physical enormity of the literature in our field. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2010 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-may-2010 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-19 21:19:26 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-20 01:19:26 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47783 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 419476 [post_id] => 47783 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [50] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47797 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2010-04-15 12:00:18 [post_date_gmt] => 2010-04-15 16:00:18 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

In this month’s newsletter, we take a look at several recent research papers on technical analysis. The field has been well studied by the academic community, and in many cases, the studies really do support our approaches. For example, relative strength has been the subject of a number of research papers. Academics prefer the term “momentum” to relative strength, but reading through any of the papers you will quickly see the underlying concepts are the same. The idea that momentum persists in stock prices has become so well documented that it is now acknowledged as a known anomaly of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Many of the common indicators can be thought of as derivative of relative strength, and in fact Richard Tortoriello demonstrated the effectiveness of Wilder’s RSI in his book Quantitative Strategies for Achieving Alpha. The academic community could prove to be a valuable source of trading ideas for the motivated technician. Math can appear to be a hurdle – while we as technicians tend to look at winning percentages and profit factors, academics use more daunting statistical techniques. Papers tend to explain and illustrate the mathematical concepts. This is done so that others can reproduce the results. For those new to reading this type of work, you could start by reading the abstract, introduction, and conclusion. If the results seem like something you can use in your work, wading through the math would be well worth the effort. Personally, I have found a great deal of value in the academic work on momentum. There are also a number of papers showing that momentum doesn’t work well at times, and I have been able to use these papers to prepare a model showing when the risk is greatest for relative strength strategies. For those wanting to get started on studying the diverse literature available to us, a good place to start is the Social Science Research Network (www.ssrn.com) where a search on the term ‘technical analysis’ yields 1,000 hits. Not all the papers are relevant to technicians, and not all papers are available for free download. But there are many hours of reading and testing available for those willing to dig into the field of technical analysis. For those wanting to talk about whether or not academic research fits into the TA community, maybe we can continue this discussion at the MTA Symposium to be held in New York. Late May is a good time for us out-oft-owners to gather there, it should be the ‘not too cold, not too hot’ time of year. The speakers lined up by the MTA are among the best in the industry, and there is always ample time to learn from the other attendees. It’s time well spent on professional education and personal collaboration. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, April 2010 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-april-2010 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-20 11:50:54 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-20 15:50:54 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47797 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 419979 [post_id] => 47797 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [51] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47846 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2010-02-15 12:00:56 [post_date_gmt] => 2010-02-15 17:00:56 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

In this month’s issue of Technically Speaking, we offer several short articles that could stimulate some fresh thoughts on the markets. John R. McGinley, CMT, offers details on a reliable January indicator. What is interesting about his work is that he includes a test of statistical significance, a step lacking in most articles written about technical indicators. We are also reprinting a very readable explanation of the chi squared test written John’s friend and mentor, the late Arthur Merrill, CMT. We follow this with some very specific trading lessons. Mike Moody, CMT, quantifies how much following a disciplined approach can be worth in “The $ Value of Patience.” Ken Winans, CMT, contributes an article which shows that simple strategies can work very well. David Penn of TradingMarkets.com also explains a specific trading strategy. Bob Palmerton, CMT, provides details on a disciplined way to look at the markets each day. Finally, we have some reviews of trading tools developed by MTA members. We are always happy to bring your work to the attention of others. Books can be reviewed as Adobe files so that the article can be published at the time the book is being formally released. Please email us at editor@mta.org to arrange for a review, or to contribute an article that will be read by thousands of MTA members and affiliates around the world. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, February 2010 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-february-2010 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-20 14:28:07 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-20 18:28:07 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47846 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 421780 [post_id] => 47846 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_7_contributor [meta_value] => a:3:{i:0;s:4:"1021";i:1;s:5:"47881";i:2;s:4:"7251";} ) [52] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47901 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2009-12-15 12:00:15 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-12-15 17:00:15 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

This month, we searched the internet to find interesting and useful web sites that could help our members profit in the markets. There are a number of very good web sites out there, but most will not help traders unless they are willing to think outside the box. Economists seem to have taken to blogging more than many other professions, and while their observations are interesting, we thought that almost all of them were too far from technical analysis to be included in this short review. But you may certainly have more insights into their work and we’d like to hear about it if you do. That leads to an interesting question – what should technical analysis include? We’d very much like to hear some of your thoughts on that subject and would be glad to include any ideas you have as letters to the editor. One interesting application of technical analysis we did find was the work of Jim Otar, CMT, CFP. Jim extends his research to retirement planning. It demonstrates the possibilities for skilled technicians, and in a challenging employment environment, research like this could be the element that leads to that dream job. For those wishing to extend the field of technical analysis and seeking a place to publish, consider Technically Speaking. We’re ready to review anything related to our field. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2009 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-december-2009 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-20 16:15:15 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-20 20:15:15 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47901 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 422552 [post_id] => 47901 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_5_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:5:"47902";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [53] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47919 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2009-11-15 12:00:25 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-11-15 17:00:25 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

We are again presenting only a few articles in this month’s newsletter. MTA members are among the leading technicians doing great research and we are featuring a few samples of the work being done. In coming months, we hope to continue highlighting this type of original work. As always, if you’d like to share your work with your colleagues, please send it to us at editor@mta.org. In “An Interesting Application of Neural Nets,” we highlight how Parallax Financial Research is using neural networks to develop a complete investment methodology. Their combination of fundamental and technical inputs has resulted in a long-term winning strategy. Robin Carpenter presents a detailed analysis and thought-provoking piece on VIX, challenging the standard interpretation of this widely used indicator. Short-term traders will be interested in “Candlestick Kicker Signal = Powerful Profits” by Stephen W. Bigalow. While candlesticks are widely used, this article offers a fresh insight into the patterns. “Individual Monthly Charts for The 1924 to 1935 Period” is a partial reprint of a Safian Investment Research piece. The collection of charts and brief commentary are well worth reading for anyone trading today’s markets. Mark Twain is believed to have said, “History doesn't repeat itself - at best it sometimes rhymes.” Traders need to study history so that they can benefit from the repetitive patterns often found in the market, and Safian’s piece is a valuable collection of market history. We hope you find this collection of papers to be useful. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2009 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-november-2009 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-20 17:00:34 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-20 21:00:34 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47919 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 422914 [post_id] => 47919 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [54] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47947 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2009-10-15 12:00:06 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-10-15 16:00:06 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

This month we only have a few articles, but it will take serious students of technical analysis several hours to get through them and many more hours thinking about the ideas we present here. Eric Leake and Rob Hanna, CMT, have allowed us to reprint some of their work. Both papers offer detailed and profitable trading strategies. Enough detail is presented for someone to immediately take their ideas and start trading. More importantly, they each provide enough detail that you can  generate your own research ideas and use these papers as a starting point to develop a strategy that matches your own trading style. They should spawn countless research projects, and as you build on their work, you may want to follow their lead and publish it here for the benefit of your fellow MTA members. Also featured in this month's newsletter is an announcement from the MTA Educational Foundation discussing an online eBay auction and fundraising event. These are exciting and important events to help raise awareness and celebrate the opening of the MTAEF/MTA Library at Baruch College. I’m certain that Rob and Eric are not the only two MTA members delivering such high quality research to clients. If you’d like to share your work with your colleagues, please send it to us at editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2009 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-october-2009 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-20 17:33:51 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-20 21:33:51 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47947 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 423557 [post_id] => 47947 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:5:"30798";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [55] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47971 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2009-09-15 12:00:11 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-09-15 16:00:11 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

While September is traditionally a time to think about going back to school, on Wall Street it seems more like the time of year to head back to work. Volume is usually lower than average in the summer months as traders focus on vacations more than they do on getting the best bid. As our members gear up to face the challenges of returning to work, we offer up some opinions on recent books that can help them refocus and sharpen their skills. One trend I noticed in my summer’s reading list was the emphasis on volatility. The markets have certainly been volatile recently and several insightful authors have offered tips on how to profit from that volatility. We also have a research piece by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research which shows how prices respond after experiencing volatility. As always, we hope you find this issue of Technically Speaking to be useful as well as interesting. Please let us know what you like, and what you’d like to see. Send me an email at editor@mta.org. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2009 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-september-2009 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-20 18:49:58 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-20 22:49:58 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47971 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 423910 [post_id] => 47971 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:3:"935";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [56] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 47997 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2009-08-15 12:00:16 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-08-15 16:00:16 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

Trading and getting involved in the MTA are the focus of this month's newsletter. Dan Zanger is a short-term trader with an enviable record of success. Ajay Jani offers insights into his thinking, and then we reprint what Dan considers to be among his most important rules. We also review a new book by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez from TradingMarkets.com. Short-term trading can offer high potential profits, but these articles also address the risk which is inseparable from trading. We also have news from the MTA Educational Foundation and the Journal Committee. The MTA is constantly advancing into academia and these initiatives are at the forefront of that march. This will add value to your membership and bring added prestige to the CMT designation by improving the acceptance of technical analysis within the investment community. Please let us know what you think of the newsletter, and how we can improve this member benefit for you. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, August 2009 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-august-2009 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-20 20:17:59 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-21 00:17:59 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=47997 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 424697 [post_id] => 47997 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:3:{i:0;s:4:"2494";i:1;s:5:"36576";i:2;s:4:"7251";} ) [57] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48038 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2009-06-15 12:00:01 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-06-15 16:00:01 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

Technicians have long been at the forefront of technology, and the MTA staff is demonstrating that our organization is on the leading edge of adding value to our membership through technology. At the May Symposium Tom Silveri highlighted several initiatives, such as making this newsletter electronic, that have already benefited members. The Educational Web Series has been very successful, arguably the most successful recent initiative. He also unveiled new efforts that are underway. This demonstrates that the MTA is a growing organization. With growth come challenges that the leadership has stepped up and admirably met. And, with growth also comes opportunity. This is our chance to stand up and meet the needs of the organization. All members have an opportunity to volunteer in support of the MTA. Less than forty years ago, the MTA consisted of a few dozen members, all living and working near New York. Now we have members in every state and more than 1,100 members from outside the United States. The electronic delivery of services shows how easy it would be to offer your own time to the MTA, no matter where you are located. Contact a Committee Chair, Board Member, or anyone at the office to learn how you can help the MTA. It might just be a way to further your professional knowledge and enhance your career. As always, please send your thoughts to editor@mta.org. With an electronic format, we can post all letters to the editor that we receive, edited only for professionalism. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, June 2009 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-june-2009 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-21 13:56:24 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-21 17:56:24 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48038 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 426035 [post_id] => 48038 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_6_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [58] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48072 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2009-05-15 12:00:39 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-05-15 16:00:39 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

In Technically Speaking we try to bring you money making ideas and news that impacts the field of technical analysis each month. This month, both are combined into the most difficult article I have ever had to write. Mike Epstein passed away in April. To those who knew him, his death is an enormous loss since Mike’s outsized personality always left you feeling optimistic after discussing the markets or life with the philosopher-trader. In the brief article we include in this newsletter, we attempt to provide a picture of his life. We also attempt to offer a glimpse into the wisdom he shared from his lifetime of experience. Mike knew how to trade, and he traded for a living and for enjoyment. Whenever he spoke, there was an opportunity to learn. Older traders and analysts offer that opportunity. And the MTA facilitates those meetings. It is an incredible organization from that respect – no where else do I see experienced members, some of whom are highly seasoned citizens, so willing to share their knowledge. For those on the fence, go to the May Symposium in New York. Approach a more experienced member and introduce yourself. Odds are that it’ll be a winning trade – you’ll learn a great deal and enjoy the experience. Personally, my results from meeting older traders is better than my results from trading. Never a loser in the former, and several years of enjoyable conversations with Mike Epstein that I will always value.  While we try to summarize Mike’s impact in this month’s e-newsletter, it can never replace an hour of his time. Take advantage of one the most important MTA benefits and reach out to our more experienced members. I hope to meet many of you at the Symposium, and I hope I have a difficult time breaking through the throng of younger members discussing markets and life with our wealth of knowledge. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2009 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-may-2009 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-21 14:18:58 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-21 18:18:58 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48072 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 426478 [post_id] => 48072 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [59] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48091 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2009-04-15 12:00:32 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-04-15 16:00:32 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

This month’s newsletter contains a variety of information and we hope find some of it to be useful in your pursuit of profits in the markets. As traders, we often get caught up in small stuff and forget about the big picture - knowing when news will move markets is critical to success. In Forex, economic data represents the fundamental inputs that traders should be aware of. We reprint an article from the Online Trading Academy web site describing some of the more important indicators which can drive stocks, bonds, and Forex prices. In stocks, fundamentals are commonly thought of as ratios. Crestmont Research recently completed a report on the P/E ratio and their detailed study includes a chart which shows that P/E ratios have been range bound for decades. Enterprising technical analysts may consider applying indicators to this data to forecast long-term trends. We also added a feature last month that allows you to prepare the newsletter for printing in its entirety with a single click. Please let us know if you have any suggestions for additional improvements. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, April 2009 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-april-2009 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-21 17:01:56 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-21 21:01:56 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48091 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 427021 [post_id] => 48091 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_3_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"2464";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [60] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48120 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2009-03-15 12:00:58 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-03-15 16:00:58 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

In this issue of Technically Speaking, we provide a great deal of information on market breadth. An interview with well known technician Dick Arms provides insight into the work and current thinking of an industry legend. Several articles detail a small part of the work of Dr. Humphrey Lloyd, unknown to the majority of technicians. Although trained as a pathologist, he has written widely on technical analysis and has developed unique and useful indicators. In learning about Dr. Lloyd’s work, I personally was struck by the similarity to the life of a technician who came to the field late in life but produced more than many others who spend their whole lives researching market action – Arthur A. Merrill, CMT. Both enjoyed great success in their original profession. Both brought the skills they employed in that profession to the markets. Both men were prolific authors, sharing their knowledge with all who wished to learn. But the most defining characteristic of both is that they can best be described as “gentlemen.” This is an adjective that few aspire to in the current environment. Wall Street is more associated with greed than anything else today. But there are still gentlemen and gentlewomen in our field, and I strongly urge the young technicians to reach out to them and learn about technical analysis, and life, from these examples of the life well lived. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, March 2009 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-march-2009 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-21 17:59:42 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-21 21:59:42 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48120 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 427654 [post_id] => 48120 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [61] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48165 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2008-12-15 12:00:35 [post_date_gmt] => 2008-12-15 17:00:35 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

The content in this month’s newsletter is similar to what you’ve come to expect from us. We present very brief summaries of technical perspectives offered by expert technicians Ken Tower, Ken Winans, and Jeff Lay at a recent Trader’s Expo. A link to a video of the entire panel discussion is available on your member  homepage. Other articles include a couple book reviews and the Nominating Committee and Dow Award Committee have also provided important information. This issue of Technically Speaking represents the end of an era, and the beginning of a new one. It is the last one which will be delivered as a hard copy. Beginning in January 2009, we will be using electronic delivery to serve you better.  Initially we will be delivering the same information in a different format. Once a month, we will email a newsletter similar to the other electronic newsletters many of you now receive.  Links to each article will take you to the full text, and there will be an option to print anything you’d like to study in more detail. As soon as we can, we will add more timely updates. Interim emails will deliver short-term analysis. We will also be able to expand the quantity of material we deliver, including more reviews of books, software, and the latest products supporting technical analysts. We are excited about the changes that will come over the next few months. The quality of Technically Speaking will increase, and the value to you, the members, will be enhanced. Please feel free to offer any feedback to us as we craft your new newsletter. Email me at editor@mta.org with any ideas, requests, or articles you’d like to have published. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2008 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-december-2008 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-23 13:46:43 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-23 17:46:43 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48165 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 428676 [post_id] => 48165 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:4:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:4:"1048";i:2;s:3:"768";i:3;s:3:"967";} ) [62] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48189 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2008-11-11 12:00:53 [post_date_gmt] => 2008-11-11 17:00:53 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

We had to add two more pages this month to fit all the content that we think you want and deserve as members of the Market Technicians Association. Technical analysis is a dynamic field and we all struggle to keep up with new developments. We read a lot of research and MTA news and as we prepare Technically Speaking each month, we struggle to fit in all the content that we would like to print while being constrained by our format limitations. I am working closely with the MTA staff to find the best way to deliver high-quality content, and we want to make it more timely, as well. Our goal is to deliver more value for your membership, and the staff has been very responsive in trying to do this. Their efforts are not limited to the newsletter – they look to improve the organization and our benefits as they work for us every day. So we can’t say when we’ll have a solution, but as soon as possible we will expand the information we deliver to you monthly. This month’s newsletter focuses on quantitative techniques. A few investment techniques are presented in great detail, along with back-tested results. You should be able to work with these ideas immediately and make them your own. Profitable trading ideas are one membership benefit that we hope you find among the most valuable. But in bringing you this type of research, we quickly identify the limits of our ability to present readable graphics. The charts need to improve, and that is one of the things we will accomplish as we look at different formats. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2008 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-november-2008 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-23 14:44:04 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-23 18:44:04 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48189 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 429610 [post_id] => 48189 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_3_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:5:"48201";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [63] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48308 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2008-08-15 12:00:13 [post_date_gmt] => 2008-08-15 16:00:13 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

This month’s issue demonstrates the rich variety that exists within the field of technical analysis. As always, we hope you find this issue of your newsletter to be useful. We also welcome your contributions and suggestions. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, August 2008 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-august-2008 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-24 15:13:39 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-24 19:13:39 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48308 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 431023 [post_id] => 48308 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_1_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:3:"768";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [64] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48334 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2008-07-15 12:00:07 [post_date_gmt] => 2008-07-15 16:00:07 [post_content] =>

Letter from the Editor

This month’s issue brings a great deal of news about our organization. To paraphrase Executive Director Tom Silveri’s excellent presentation at the May Symposium, “The state of the MTA is stronger than it has ever been.” The letters from Past President Phil Roth and newly inducted President Larry Berman describe some of the efforts which have led to our growth and strength over the past few years. We also have a detailed report about the MTA Educational Foundation course being taught at the University of Richmond. The Foundation has been actively promoting technical analysis within the academic community for a number  of years. For those interested in learning more about this organization, more details can be found at their web site,  www.mtaeducationalfoundation.org. A redesign of the site is currently underway, so check back often for the latest information. Three pages of Technically Speaking are devoted to the life and work of Ian Notley, who will be missed by all who had the pleasure of meeting him. Ian’s work is certainly important, and we are able to present a few examples. We also hope you’ll take the time to read the remarks of Ian McAvity and Karl Wagner. We received several other remembrances of Ian that we didn’t have room to print. This space is not just to pay tribute to a life well lived. Ian inspired many during his career, and we hope that more will be inspired by reading about him. He embodied all that the MTA is – knowledge, innovation, friendship, and mentorship.

In Memoriam Ian Sydney Notley It is with great sadness that we report the passing of long-time MTA Member and friend, Ian Sydney Notley. Our thoughts are with him and his family

Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2008 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-july-2008 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-24 16:22:57 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-24 20:22:57 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48334 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 431444 [post_id] => 48334 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_3_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:5:"43171";} ) [65] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48366 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2008-06-15 12:00:35 [post_date_gmt] => 2008-06-15 16:00:35 [post_content] =>

On the Campus

This month, instead of A Letter from the Executive Director and from the Editor, we have decided to provide you with an update from the MTA Educational Foundation.

9 Days in Taipei - a Very Different Teaching Experience

Baruch College has a very successful International Executive MBA program with operations in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Israel, and France. Over the years the program has enriched the lives of the students whose careers have benefited by the knowledge from the course work, the prestige of a U.S. degree, and the networking amongst other alumni. After being on an informal waiting list for a number of yeas, I was invited to teach Technical Analysis in Taiwan during the recent April holiday break here in the U.S. Courses run consecutively and Technical Analysis is an elective at Baruch, so I had to wait until a class of finance students completed all their core curriculum before I got this opportunity. I accepted the assignment, arranged vacation time at the office and quickly booked an 18 hour flight that would take me over the North Pole to Hong Kong and then Taipei.  Other faculty members at Baruch that I have met who have taught overseas found the experience of teaching in another culture very stimulating and rewarding - I was no exception. I got some counsel about teaching in Asia - for example - giving an individual project instead of a test where unfamiliar business terms may be a problem. When giving an individual project it must be stressed that it is individual work and not a group project. Also the culture overseas does not put as much importance on copyrighted work and students often cut and paste without regard to sourcing. Getting there -- one long flight! Be open to words of experience from people who have endured long flights. Wear compression socks, walk, exercise, drink lots of water, repeat every two hours. Also it helps if you have good neighbors. Check in - Friday night? Where did Friday morning go? Travel from the airport to the hotel was light because it was a local holiday. On Monday I got to see the real level of travel on the streets - buses, taxis, cars, and millions and millions of motor scooters. Naturally when I got to my room I called home and these were expensive minutes. On Saturday after teaching I went to a Seven-Eleven to buy a phone card. I called every day for the next week for less than that first call from the hotel! After booking the flight I had much to do - picking out a text that could be sourced overseas and reworking the course outline to fit into four full days and two evenings versus 14 weeks. Getting the text I wanted proved to be a minor obstacle. This semester in New York I was using Kirkpatrick and Dalhquist as well as my own book. At first they could get Kirkpatrick and Kamich but later I was told they could only get Murphy before the class started and my own book would be bought on the internet and might or might not get there when classes started. At nearly the same time I had to get some extra shots from my doctor, check on the electrical outlets, contact information, getting Blackboard (the school’s uber-website for teaching) set up, what to bring and what to ship over before hand. Material that I would have a guest lecturer cover I now had to become familiar with and I had to arrange the material to flow from day to day. There was no time for homework and a midterm so as a practical issue I wondered how I was going to judge if the material was being understood. At Baruch I have a fair idea of the English skills of the students but what was I going to encounter in Taipei? Teaching from 9 to 5.30PM -- first you have to remember to give breaks every 90 minutes, no matter how exciting the material, 10 to 15 minutes plus an hour and 15 minutes for lunch. You always needed to review what was covered the prior day. The material builds on the early basic ideas and this must be reinforced. You had to put it on the board, tell it, explain it and then review it. This was not because the students were slow but because the subject material was new and the language differences. I found several times that if one student did not understand the material another student might tell the others or the one who was confused in Chinese. This was a little distracting and would not have tolerated it in New York but I learned to  accept it in Taiwan to be successful in getting the ideas across. Bruce M. Kamich, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, June 2008 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-june-2008 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-24 17:08:10 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-24 21:08:10 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48366 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 432086 [post_id] => 48366 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:4:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:4:"1008";i:2;s:3:"938";i:3;s:4:"1005";} ) [66] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48383 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2008-05-15 12:00:29 [post_date_gmt] => 2008-05-15 16:00:29 [post_content] =>

On the Campus

This month, instead of A Letter from the Executive Director and from the Editor, we have decided to provide you with an update from the MTA Educational Foundation. This new column is one we are looking to run frequently in upcoming issues of Technically Speaking.

The MTA Educational Foundation at Howard University

Fred Meissner, Charlie Kirkpatrick, and I, Phil Roth, all lectured at Howard University this spring. Prof. William Barbee, in the business school at Howard University, has been conducting a course in technical analysis for a number of years. The MTAEF has been assisting him with guest speakers. I have been giving a lecture in sentiment and supply/ demand indicators for four years. I spoke this year on April 22, using a Powerpoint presentation that the MTAEF developed. I have made presentations at many colleges and universities, including, among others Tulane, Cornell, Georgia Tech, Baruch, and the University of Texas, and have been conducting my own course in the Graduate School of Business at Fordham University in New York for six years. I am always impressed by the caliber of students at Howard, and their interest in the markets and technical analysis. Prof. Barbee helps generate the interest by asking questions about the indicators and the sources of the data. Fred Meissner: A couple of week’s ago, I had the pleasure of teaching at Howard University. I have been teaching a class at this school for several years, and really enjoy Dr. Barbee and the students. The class is scheduled for the end of the day and I almost always run over time because the interest level of the students is so high. I usually teach the Intermarket analysis module of the course, but as always we had a fairly wide ranging discussion – Dr. Barbee’s students are almost always well prepared and are interested both in the material as well as the markets themselves. Because they are well versed in the fundamentals they keep me on my toes! It is tremendously rewarding to teach a class in Technical Analysis. When I started in the business back in 1983 there were no such classes, and unless one was lucky enough to find the right books, or find a mentor, knowledge was almost impossible to come by. One of the reasons that I became involved in the MTA way back when was to help others learn and to spread the word. Readers may recall that my first big job with the association was as Regions Chair. It still excites me to see chapters I helped to form going strong, and now providing teachers for the MTA course. All CMT’s, and older, experienced members, should consider volunteering as a teacher. It is a great way to give back to the community, and to spread the knowledge that has been so rewarding to all of us. Charlie Kirkpatrick: Professor William C. ‘Kip’ Barbee has taught technical analysis for many years as a full credit course in the Howard University School of Business. Kip is known for several research papers on relative earnings, value, and price strength and has been published frequently in academic journals. Howard University is the premier African-American university and is located in Washington DC. As part of the MTA Educational Foundation effort to help universities in teaching technical analysis, I had the privilege of lecturing to Professor Barbee’s class this spring on the subject of price patterns. Approximately 30 students attended the class, the full number enrolled. The students were asking numerous questions and showed extreme interest in how to use patterns to profit. Indeed, the enthusiasm was so high, I didn’t get to finish the talk but ran out of time. Professor Barbee was thrilled, as was I, to see such excitement over technical analysis. [post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2008 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-may-2008 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-24 17:59:35 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-24 21:59:35 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48383 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 432533 [post_id] => 48383 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:5:"24806";} ) [67] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48410 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2008-04-15 12:00:12 [post_date_gmt] => 2008-04-15 16:00:12 [post_content] =>

From the Editor

This is an interesting time for technicians and we try to present some examples of that in this month’s newsletter. The collapse of Bear Stearns took its chairman by surprise, according to the testimony he delivered to Congress. Could the charts have provided a clue to the stunning events that impacted that company? We reproduce two charts and ask for your input on that question. If you had an indicator that warned of the carnage in that stock, please let us know and we will publish the details in coming issues. A chart of housing prices is as bearish as the chart of Bear Stearns. We also have a chart of an index to track that market created by MTA Member Ken Winans. Can technical analysis be applied to this market? If so, perhaps an argument can be made that we are oversold. Again, we’d like to know of any analytical tools that you’ve applied in housing, or other nontraditional markets. We also have an interview with Dave Keller, a few other articles and some MTA business included in this month’s newsletter. Details for the Annual Meeting and one-day Symposium in New York are still being finalized, but the Seminar Committee is working to bring the best minds in the business to the Bloomberg Building. In coming issues, more information about speakers will be available. Tentatively, Ralph Vince is scheduled to be the keynote speaker. For those unfamiliar with his work, the December 2007 issue of Technically Speaking including an interview with Ralph and a review of his comprehensive book on money management. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, April 2008 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-april-2008 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-24 19:02:58 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-24 23:02:58 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48410 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 433051 [post_id] => 48410 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [68] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48451 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2008-01-15 12:00:07 [post_date_gmt] => 2008-01-15 17:00:07 [post_content] =>

From the Editor

This year marks my tenth year of involvement in MTA activities. Within months of becoming an Affiliate, I asked if I could help with the newsletter. Mike Kahn, then the editor, agreed to give me an opportunity, and that single email exchange helped me to become a market professional and CMT. I feel that writing for the newsletter was the best study tool available for CMT preparation. There are twenty committees in the MTA, and I have served on eight of them and been involved with two regional chapters. With all of those activities, the newsletter has taught me the most and allowed me to develop more technical skills than any other. But, those other commitments require time, and I need to find more of that precious commodity to  effectively serve the MTA. To do that, we need a new editor of this newsletter. The job takes about 20 hours a month, on average. Someone with excellent time management skills might be able top schedule an hour a day – that was not my experience as I usually spent all the time over several days at the last minute each month. If you are interested in helping the MTA by taking over as editor of technically speaking, please send me a note (mraketstrategist@gmail.com). We will work a smooth transition, so that you will not suffer through a steep learning curve. And, the reality is that Tim Licitra does all the hard work required to create a nice document. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, January / February 2008 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-january-february-2008 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-24 20:09:51 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 00:09:51 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48451 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 434494 [post_id] => 48451 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:3:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:4:"1121";i:2;s:4:"1730";} ) [69] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48464 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2007-12-15 12:00:08 [post_date_gmt] => 2007-12-15 17:00:08 [post_content] =>

From the Editor

While the MTA continues to grow, the need for volunteers grows as well. All committees need more help, and there are several positions on the Board of Directors to fill in the next election. (more information on the call for nominees on the insert). Many organizations seeing the growth that we enjoy would be desperate to find enough volunteers. The MTA is not facing desperate times, we are very fortunate to have a large number of active volunteers.  Hopefully no one will think we have enough volunteers, because there is always room for more. But, we are able to maintain the same amazing level of activity that we always have even as membership has grown.  If you’re not involved, look at the web site and see if there is anything that interests you. Many committees and chapters could use more help, and with more help they can deliver more high quality services. It’s your MTA, help make it even better. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2007 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-december-2007 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-25 12:03:35 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 16:03:35 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48464 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 434871 [post_id] => 48464 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [70] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48587 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2007-11-15 12:00:01 [post_date_gmt] => 2007-11-15 17:00:01 [post_content] =>

From the Nominating Committee

Dear Members, Honorary Members and Emeritus Members, Every year, the Nominations Committee chooses the slate for the Board of Directors that everyone eventually votes on at our MTA Annual Meeting (next Annual meeting in May-June, 2008). While thanking previously members who have served, the Committee is now totally open and I therefore need to hear from Members, Honorary Members and Emeritus Members who would like to serve on this important committee. It is not too cumbersome a job but it is a key one since you will chose potential Board members that ultimately drive and lead the MTA in the future. For a more detailed explanation of the MTA Nominating Committee and its processes, please refer to the MTA By-Laws, Section BL 7.02 E. (Can be found in the “Mission” Section of our web-site). I encourage all Members to apply, especially those Members outside the USA. I would really like to see this Committee reflect the diversity of the MTA membership. Would all those interested please drop me an email with a very brief explanation of why you would like to serve and just a little about your background. Please contact me at nominations@mta.org Thank you, Jordan Kotick, CMT Nominating Committee Chair & Board Member [post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2007 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-november-2007 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-25 17:44:46 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 21:44:46 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48587 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 441548 [post_id] => 48587 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_3_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:5:"46615";i:1;s:4:"7251";} ) [71] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48598 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2007-10-15 12:00:38 [post_date_gmt] => 2007-10-15 16:00:38 [post_content] =>

A Letter from the MTA Seminar Chair

This month, instead of A Letter from the Editor’s Desk, we have decided to provide you with an update on the MTA’s upcoming Mid-Winter Retreat by Seminar Chair Tim Snavely, CFA, CMT. MTA Membership: I am pleased to invite you to join us this year for our 2008 MTA Mid-Winter Retreat - a high quality, advanced topics, learning and networking event set on the gorgeous Florida Gulf Coast. This year’s Retreat will be held January 25th and 26th at the fabulous Don CeSar, a Loew’s Hotel, and it will feature: Please stay tuned for more information, and be sure to review the itinerary. There is no better place to be this January 25th and 26th than St. Pete Beach, Florida - so plan ahead and act now to take advantage of this opportunity, and the low pre-registration rate available for only a short time. For more information or to register, go to www.mta.org, or contact Tim Licitra, MTA Marketing Services Coordinator, at (646) 652-3300. Sincerely, Tim Snavely, CFA, CMT MTA Board Member & Seminar Chair [post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2007 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-october-2007 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-25 18:37:36 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 22:37:36 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48598 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 441846 [post_id] => 48598 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_5_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:4:"1133";} ) [72] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48612 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2007-09-15 12:00:37 [post_date_gmt] => 2007-09-15 16:00:37 [post_content] =>

From the Editor’s Desk

Traders enjoy instantaneous feedback - seconds after placing a trade they know whether or not it’s working. Traders also have the ability to review their performance at any time just by checking their equity curve. In most other professions, an annual employee performance review is the only feedback available. In large corporations, it is possible to spend 364 days in a delusional bliss, only to learn on appraisal day that they have failed miserably at supporting corporate objectives. As editor of your newsletter, I must admit it would be great to receive constant feedback on whether or now we are meeting your needs. But, we rarely hear from the more than 2,600 recipients of Technically Speaking, and we are wondering if we are doing well or enjoying an extended period of delusional bliss. This month, we thought we’d ask for feedback, and we hope to hear from everyone. Feedback of any kind is welcome: just send an email to editor@mta.org. For those thinking they have nothing to say, consider answering any, or all, of these questions: Thanks! We’ll report back on what we learn and will incorporate all constructive feedback that we receive. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT Technically Speaking Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2007 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-september-2007 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-25 19:42:57 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-25 23:42:57 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48612 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 442081 [post_id] => 48612 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:3:"768";} ) [73] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48644 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2007-07-15 12:00:22 [post_date_gmt] => 2007-07-15 16:00:22 [post_content] => * Due to time sensitive submissions, there will not be a letter from the Executive Director or Editor this month. * [post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2007 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-july-2007 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-26 13:06:08 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-26 17:06:08 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48644 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 442650 [post_id] => 48644 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_1_contributor [meta_value] => a:3:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:5:"48649";i:2;s:5:"48651";} ) [74] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48684 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2007-05-15 12:00:16 [post_date_gmt] => 2007-05-15 16:00:16 [post_content] =>

From the Executive’s Desk

The spring CMT examination “window” is from April 25 - May 5, 2007. The entire MTA Staff would like to wish all of the CMT Exam test takers the best of luck. During this tough and stressful time, feel free to contact us with any questions or concerns. This month we have a very special event, the Annual Education Seminar. Being held in New York City from May 18th-19th, we have some of the finest technicians presenting on a wide array of topics. We strongly urge our membership to try and attend, especially those in the NY area. I would also like to thank our sponsors, TradeStation, ProShares, Fidelity, Bloomberg, and eSignal for contributing to what is shaping up to be a sensational event. I would also like to thank those of you who have mailed back your proxy cards for the Board vote. For those of you that have not done so, please try and have your proxy mailed to us  by May 17th. Your input is important to the MTA! The voting proxy cards will be counted at the MTA’s Annual Meeting, held on May 20th, at 10:15 AM EST. All of you are invited to attend this meeting, and to join us at the MTA Headquarters for an open house and breakfast earlier that morning (9:00 AM - 10:15 AM). I look forward to the opportunity to seeing you at these two important MTA events. Sincerely, Tom Silveri MTA Executive Director [post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2007 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-may-2007 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-03-26 15:17:52 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-03-26 19:17:52 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48684 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 443345 [post_id] => 48684 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_0_contributor [meta_value] => a:3:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:5:"48685";i:2;s:4:"1133";} ) [75] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 48738 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2007-01-15 12:00:25 [post_date_gmt] => 2007-01-15 17:00:25 [post_content] =>

From the Editor’s Desk

We start the New Year with a new look for Technically Speaking. Tim Licitra has been working hard to make this newsletter more visually appealing, and in the coming months he’ll continue to lead this effort. If you have any suggestions, don’t hesitate to contact him. As you’ll read throughout this issue, the MTA is trying to actively engage all its members in the business of the Association. This theme is found in articles by Charlie Kirkpatrick, CMT about the MTA Educational Foundation, the letter from Executive Director Tom Silveri, and the short note from our newly appointed Volunteer Czar, Fred Meissner. CMT. I hope you’ll consider contacting Fred and getting more involved – we need your help. Although we include a lot of MTA news, this month’s issue also presents some practical investment research and a brief article on trading psychology. Larry Connors from TradingMarkets.com recently completed some research on the best trading days of the month, and we are able to reprint that. This work could form the basis of a futures trading strategy or can help you time monthly mutual fund purchases. Without a doubt, it has applicability to all traders. Andy Ratkai, CFA, recently published an article reminding us to rely on our own work, and not to become overly invested in the opinions of others. It seems like a nice way to start trading this year, consciously resolving to ignore the talking heads on CNBC and in the press and doing our own work. Finally, Dave Aronson, CMT, has written a book asking us to think about raising the bar in our research. Statistical significance would increase the credibility of technical research and should increase your trading profits, a true win-win outcome. I conclude by quoting an old Wall Street adage, “May your best trade of last year be your worst trade of the New Year.” Mike Carr, CMT Editor, Technically Speaking [post_title] => Technically Speaking, January 2007 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-january-2007 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-03 11:00:53 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-03 15:00:53 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=48738 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 444401 [post_id] => 48738 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:5:"46268";} ) [76] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 51962 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2006-11-15 12:00:39 [post_date_gmt] => 2006-11-15 17:00:39 [post_content] =>

From the Editor’s Desk

As always, the MTA is busy. Staff and volunteers are continuing with preparations for the upcoming Seminar. Graders are preparing to review the growing number of CMT tests. Daily operations continue to increase at an ever quickening pace. This issue of the newsletter reflects that activity and presents some interesting research on techniques of technical analysis. On the cover, Rob Brand, CMT, takes a new look at volume and analyzes institutional fund flows. He concludes that studying this data is useful, and provides a viable framework to incorporate the data into your own market studies. Looking inside the newsletter, on page 8, we publish a short study by Lawson McWhorter, CMT, looking at the volume generated by retail investors. He uses data recently made available by the New York Stock Exchange that was announced in the June Issue of Technically Speaking. His conclusion is that the usefulness of retail data in the current market environment is limited. I hope you’ll read both studies, and maybe consider doing your own work in this area. We are always happy to publish the results of your studies. I hope you enjoy this issue, and look forward to hearing about what you’d like to see in upcoming issues. Cordially, Mike Carr, CMT Editor, Technically Speaking [post_title] => Technically Speaking, November, 2006 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-november-2006 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-04 13:48:54 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-04 17:48:54 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=51962 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 532511 [post_id] => 51962 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_6_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [77] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 51980 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2006-10-15 12:00:10 [post_date_gmt] => 2006-10-15 16:00:10 [post_content] =>

From the Editor’s Desk

This issue of Technically Speaking offers insight into the excitement and energy within the Market Technicians Association. The recently concluded Long Range Planning Committee meeting merits prominent space on the cover of the newsletter to draw attention to the fact that the Board is looking to the membership for ideas on how to grow and improve the MTA. Inside, we bring you news that a new  Executive Director has been hired to lead the implementation of our ideas. After more than 30 years as an organization, the future of the MTA looks brighter than ever. At the Long Range Planning meeting, I had the opportunity to speak with Ralph Acampora. Ralph mentioned that he never expected to see the MTA grow from its humble beginnings to an organization recognized by the SEC and NYSE as legally equivalent to the CFAI. What amazed me, and many others that I spoke with, is that this growth in professionalism has not come at the expense of the “clubbiness” we have long enjoyed. The greatest value of my MTA membership is the personal relationships which have come from actively participating in the organization. (Astute readers will recognize that the monthly pitch to volunteer is beginning here.) I began writing my first article for the newsletter less than 60 days after I became an affiliate. Then-editor Michael Kahn worked closely with me for years, and helped to develop the skill that I have. At Seminars, I have been able to meet the giants of our field, and have learned more from them than I could have by reading every book in the vast library we can access as a benefit of our membership. I have never hesitated to contact MTA members for their insights, and have always been warmly greeted. Consider volunteering for a committee or chapter, and start taking advantage of the greatest value your membership offers – participation. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, October, 2006 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-october-2006 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-04 14:35:55 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-04 18:35:55 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=51980 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 532865 [post_id] => 51980 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [78] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 52014 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2006-07-15 12:00:20 [post_date_gmt] => 2006-07-15 16:00:20 [post_content] =>

From the President’s Desk

Your new officers and board members for the 2006-2007 year are now all in place and have already dug in and begun to work. I want to welcome the two new directors, Sherman McClellan and Bruce Kamich, who joined the Board on July 1. Sherman is a long-time technician and first time Board member. Bruce is a past President of the MTA. Since our last newsletter the certification committee has completed the grading of the CMT 3 tests, and the results are quite gratifying for all of us involved in the accreditation process, as well as the candidates. Two-thirds of the candidates passed the demanding four-hour essay examination and are now in line for their Chartered Market Technician designation. The solid pass rate is a testimony to the quality of the candidates and to their knowledge and preparation. On behalf of the Board of Directors, I congratulate them. If they are already members or when they complete the membership process, they will be awarded their CMT’s. Our annual long range planning meeting is scheduled for September 9 in New York. You will be reminded of the precise location and time on the MTA web site and in the newsletter. The long range planning meeting is one of the few times the MTA Board can get together face-to-face to discuss at length the important issues facing the MTA and the profession of technical analysis. Our Board members are scattered across the U.S. (and Canada). The meeting is, of course, open to the whole membership, and the Board encourages participation from all members. If you want to offer your opinions, you can attend or you can make your wishes known to the Board. You can email me or any other Board member with questions or comments if you are not able to attend in person. The search for a new Executive Director goes on. The Search Committee has additional applicants to consider. However, the MTA Board would like to make it clear that it is still open to suggestions for new candidates. If you have experience in running a small business (the MTA has a five-person staff), especially if you have experience with not-for-profit organizations, or if you know someone with that background, let us know. Knowledge and interest in technical analysis are important criteria, but the ability to manage, and to work with and encourage volunteers are critical. We are looking for someone with good verbal and written communication skills and the ability to analyze financial data and make business strategy decisions. There is some travel involved, including visiting chapters and prospective chapters, and in seminar planning and execution. We are offering competitive compensation with comparable not-for-profit organizations in the New York metropolitan area. As you know, the MTA office is presently in Woodbridge, New Jersey (less than an hour from New York), but we remain committed to moving the office back to New York as soon as possible. Cover letters and bios can be sent to me at the MTA office by email or regular mail. The vacation season is in full force. But the MTA is a year-round operation and the Board members and committee chairs will be working hard. There will be monthly educational meetings, regular Board meetings, and normal committee functions throughout the summer. The seminar committee is working on the agenda for the winter getaway and is planning the spring seminar in New York. If you have suggestions for speakers and topics, please let us know. In the meantime, it is business as usual for the staff in Woodbridge. If your summer plans take you to the New York-New Jersey area, then stop in our office, say hello, and browse in the library. Sincerely, Phil Roth, CMT President [post_title] => Technically Speaking, July, 2006 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-july-2006 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-05 12:03:35 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-05 16:03:35 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=52014 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 533815 [post_id] => 52014 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_1_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:5:"52021";} ) [79] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 52036 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2006-06-15 12:00:47 [post_date_gmt] => 2006-06-15 16:00:47 [post_content] =>

From the Editor’s Desk

This issue focuses on the MTA Education Seminar. Attendees spent two days listening to the latest ideas on trading and learning the fundamentals of technical analysis. Some presentations are summarized in this issue; a few more will appear next month. We also hear about a recent LA chapter meeting, and we look forward to hearing about other meetings throughout the country. The success of the Seminar demonstrates the importance of volunteers to our organization. Look over the list of committees and regions on the back page of this newsletter, and consider what you can do to help. When you have some time this month, contact a committee chairperson or a regional point of contact and talk about what you can do. The leadership of tomorrow’s MTA is working in these groups today, and you’ll be glad you became involved. We’re also looking for someone to take on the task of newsletter editor. We’ve returned this to a volunteer position, in the spirit of every other MTA function. The editor is just another committee chairperson, soliciting help from volunteers and helping deliver incredible value for the small investment we make in our membership. Sincerely, Mike Carr, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, June, 2006 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-june-2006 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-05 13:45:12 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-05 17:45:12 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=52036 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 534369 [post_id] => 52036 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_4_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:3:"944";} ) [80] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 52167 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2005-11-15 12:00:41 [post_date_gmt] => 2005-11-15 17:00:41 [post_content] => From the Editor’s Desk “November Issue of Technically Speaking” I believe these past several years have been the most dynamic and important ones in the history of the MTA. During this time, the MTA grew up. We went from an obscure social club primarily for New-York-based technicians, to a professional regulatory organization (PRO) with an industryaccepted professional certification program, computerized testing and a new state-of-the art computer platform to service its Membership. But, with growth and success often comes change – you just can’t get around it. One of these changes has been our relationship with IFTA, the International Federation of Technical Analysts that our own Ralph Acampora founded many years ago. On the cover, MTA President Jordan Kotick explains our current relationship with IFTA and how we arrived there, and also shares some of the dialogue that he has had with IFTA President Bill Sharp to try to resolve our current conflict. Being on the MTA Board myself, I realize we have already sent out a very detailed account of this issue. But, because we feel it is so important for us to make every effort to accurately inform the Membership on the details of this issue, we would rather provide a little too much information than not enough. Inside, Contributing Editor Mike Carr, covers the July 16th meeting of the Denver Chapter, which featured a presentation by Andy Ratkai on Insider Trading. Also inside, Contributing Editors Jeannette Young and Garry Rissman provide detailed coverage of the October meeting of the New York City Chapter, which featured a presentation by Christopher Cady on Market Profile. Market profile is a relatively obscure charting technique that is very popular with floor traders. This issue also features a “how-to” article by professional trader Austin Passemonte, who uses mathematically-derived pivot point numbers to determine market trend and trading opportunities. Finally, just a quick reminder to make your reservations for the MTA’s 2006 Winter Retreat to be held on January 20th and 21st at the Four Points Sheraton in Miami Beach.. Each session will explore technical analysis from a different perspective, including trading, research and portfolio management. It looks to be a great event, not to mention just being in Miami in January is a great event in itself. Hope you enjoy this issue. John Kosar, CMT Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, November, 2005 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-november-2005 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-06 17:27:27 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-06 21:27:27 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=52167 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 538092 [post_id] => 52167 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_3_contributor [meta_value] => a:2:{i:0;s:4:"7251";i:1;s:5:"47261";} ) [81] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 52322 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2005-08-15 12:00:49 [post_date_gmt] => 2005-08-15 16:00:49 [post_content] =>

From the Editor’s Desk

I’d like to begin by introducing myself as the new Editor of Technically Speaking. I replace Mike Carr, who is stepping down to make a little more time for himself and his family. I know I have a tough act to follow but, fortunately for me, Mike will continue to contribute to Technically Speaking not only as an Associate Editor, but also as a mentor to me as I assume this new role. Speaking of Associate Editors, we need more of them! If you are looking for a way to get more actively involved in your MTA and like to write, this is a great way to do it. I have been an MTA Member for close to 20 years, and I have to say that THE single best benefit of MTA Membership, at least for me, has been the opportunity to network with other members. Through networking with our Membership, I have been able to find everything from obscure data that no one else had, to a new job. But you can’t network with anyone unless you put yourself out there and let others know who you are. Becoming an Associate Editor is a great way to do just that! Each Associate Editor will be listed as such in every issue of TS, and will also have their picture and bio appear with each published article they contribute. We especially need Associate Editors on a Regional level. If you regularly attend any of the MTA’s Regional monthly meetings and would like to cover the meetings for Technically Speaking, please contact me ASAP at editor@mta.org. I will then send you a digital camera, complete with all the accessories and software, so you can also provide us with some photos of your meeting. Again, this is not only a great way to let the rest of the MTA know what your particular region is doing, but an opportunity to let the rest of the Membership get to know you! Now, let’s move on to the Newsletter itself. On the cover of this month’s issue we present our first Regions Spotlight, which covers MTA member Tom McClellan’s presentation at the July 16th meeting of our Denver Chapter. Inside, you will find information on a variety of MTArelated topics including new improvements in our CMT testing process, plus information on our new and improved technology platform called Net-Forum. We also present Part 1 of a three-part article on Swing Trading by money manager and author Dave Landry. I hope you enjoy it. John Kosar, CMT [post_title] => Technically Speaking, August, 2005 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-august-2005 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-12 13:44:26 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-12 17:44:26 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=52322 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 541329 [post_id] => 52322 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_2_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) [82] => stdClass Object ( [ID] => 52524 [post_author] => 2 [post_date] => 2005-02-15 12:00:44 [post_date_gmt] => 2005-02-15 17:00:44 [post_content] =>

From the Editor’s Desk

Last month’s newsletter included an article by William Sarubbi, MBA, CMT entitled, “First-ofthe-Month Bias Continued.” This short research piece updated some work originally done by Arthur Merrill, CMT. Shortly after that issue was sent to the publisher, Arthur Merrill passed away. We are fortunate that he left us with a lifetime of work to update, and due to the statistical rigor he applied to indicators, we should expect to find that his work is just as valid today as it was when he undertook his efforts. In this month’s newsletter, we present some  insight to the great life Arthur lived. Next month, we hope to be able to publish a very small amount of his original work. Arthur tested more ideas than most of us will have in our lifetimes. Robert Colby, CMT, is an authority on indicators, having written an extremely detailed book on the subject, The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators. In that book, Arthur Merrill is cited 23 times in the index, more than twice as often as any other individual, and second only to Ned Davis Research, an entire company dedicated to market research. We also have a summary of the recent brainstorming session in San Diego and a biography of Garfield Drew along with examples of several indicators and their applications to the stock market. We hope you enjoy this issue. Cordially, Mike Carr, CMT Technically Speaking Editor [post_title] => Technically Speaking, February, 2005 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => technically-speaking-february-2005 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2020-08-17 13:06:47 [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-08-17 17:06:47 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://cmtassociation.org/?post_type=technically_speaking&p=52524 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => technically_speaking [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [meta_id] => 548664 [post_id] => 52524 [meta_key] => newsletter_content_6_contributor [meta_value] => a:1:{i:0;s:4:"7251";} ) )

Contributions