Mukul Pal, a technical analyst who holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the founder of AlphaBlock, a technology group focused on bringing the predictive mapping characteristics of AI to the market mechanisms that use blockchain to create an adaptive “intelligent market.” Prior to founding Alphablock, Mukul was the CEO of Orpheus Capitals, another fintech venture that was shortlisted by AIconics Awards as one the world’s best AI Innovators. He has more than a decade of capital market technician experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for the Bombay Stock Exchange, multinational banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting Orpheus Capitals in 2005. He was nominated for the best analyst of the Romanian Capitals in 2007.
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[post_content] => LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
In this month’s issue we sadly note the passing of 2003 MTA Annual Award winner, Richard Russell. The story of his life was inseparable from his work and we present two examples of his work. There are many other examples available and young analysts would benefit from studying Richard’s approach to both work and life.
Young analysts would also benefit from studying the life of Ralph Acampora, CMT, who recently spoke to business students at the University of Denver. He began by talking about a bubble that developed in railroad stocks in the 1800’s. This bubble played out on the charts just like the internet bubble would almost 150 years later. As technical analysts know, history repeats. This time-tested idea is the subject of an article about the failure of a financial firm in 19th century Britain. Overend, Gurney & Co. is a company few traders remember but Dr. Bryan Taylor provides us with the details of one of the most dramatic events in the financial history of Victorian England. The collapse of Overend, Gurney and Co. had a more severe impact on the London financial market than the collapse of Bear Stearns had on U.S. markets over 140 years later. During the financial crisis of 1866, over 200 firms went bankrupt, including a number of banks. The similarities with 2008 are startling but few technical analysts will be surprised to see that history and human nature never seem to change.
This month’s issue also includes calls for papers from the sponsors of the Charles H. Dow Award and the Wagner Award. Research papers can be a valuable source of trading ideas as you can see in this issue’s Chart of the Month feature which shows the indicator highlighted in the 2015 Dow Award winning paper for several key markets around the world. In the next few months, we will be charting several other Dow Award-winning ideas.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
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[post_content] => LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
In recent issues, we have been highlighting content from the Annual Symposium. As I noted last month, “That meeting lasts just a few days but it truly does provide months’ worth of ideas for attendees.” In this month’s issue of Technically Speaking we highlight how local Chapter meetings can also provide ideas to improve your analysis. The Denver Chapter recently hosted a meeting on back testing and the discussion included best practices related to data. A summary of that presentation kicks off this month’s issue. In researching this topic further, I discovered the value of using data free from pre-inclusion bias. Testing by Cesar Alvarez is included in this issue to quantify that problem. As Cesar notes, “People often write about systems they have developed using the current Nasdaq 100 or S&P500 stocks and have tested back for 5 to 10 years. Looking at this table shows that one should completely ignore those results. The difference between the two results is scary. Using the current list would make one think that they had a great system but actuality it was much worse.” Histest results are included in the article. This month’s also issue also includes some quantified data about the best time of day to trade ETFs along with some articles making a convincing bearish case for U.S. stocks. For those wondering where to turn in a bear market, the answer could be in preferred stocks as data from Global Financial Data shows in another article. We hope you find some valuable information in this month’s magazine. Please send any comments on Technically Speaking to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
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In this month’s newsletter, we are presenting a diverse group of articles to show the breadth of the work being done within the field of technical analysis. While each article offers a different viewpoint, all of the authors use a number of charts. This is an unchanging feature of technical analysis, even in a time when there is an increased ability to quantify data.
Complex analysis can be clarified with a chart. In this note, is an example of how Kirk Northington, CMT, and Carson Dahlberg, CMT, of Northington Dahlberg Research have developed a method to visualize risk and reward. They have converted the potential gains and losses on a trade to MACD-style histogram and found an effective way to visualize the data. Technical analysis is changing, but it also remaining true to its roots and using visual tools to explain complex analysis. If you would like to share your work in this area, please email us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
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[post_content] => LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
Traders around the world are reacting to what they think the Federal Reserve might do in the coming months. Fed officials have repeatedly tried to calm the markets by explaining 
they have no firm plans for managing the end of their latest Quantitative Easing initiative. For some reason, traders seem to be nervous about assurances. No one really seems to know what will happen next.
In this month’s newsletter, we have the insights of technicians from around the world. We are able to feature assessments of markets in the U.S., Canada, and the Philippines. We also have several charts showing the recent activity in India.
Hopefully in the future we can provide analysis of markets in other countries. There are now MTA Members in 85 countries. We have no way of knowing where the next global hot spot will be but we can be fairly certain an MTA member will be providing analysis on that market. If you prepare reports on some of the less widely covered markets, or on the more popular markets, please consider them sharing them with the MTA through Technically Speaking. You can email us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
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We open this month’s newsletter with a preview of the Annual Symposium. Larry Williams updates the idea of cycles in this article and presented insights into his
latest work when he spoke in New York. Also at the Symposium, Larry’s son, Dr. Jason Williams, offered insights into the minds of winning traders. We will offer summaries of the presentations in future issues and many presentations will be online, ensuring all members can access this information even if their schedule didn’t permit them to travel to the event.
We have been celebrating the 40th anniversary of the MTA with a look at its history. No review of the history of technical analysis and the MTA would be complete without a look at the work of Arthur Merrill, CMT. Hewas among the first to publish studies of various market behaviors, like seasonal tendencies in the stock market such as the end-of-month effect. In this issue of Technically Speaking we are reprinting his study of M & W patterns from a 1980 issue of the MTA Journal. Few analysts could duplicate this study today using readily available charting software. Arthur worked with a programmable calcualator, “it was designed for [the] T159 programmable calculator, and had 476 instructions,” and chart paper. Other examples of his work can be found in the Journal archives available on the MTA web site.
We also include some analysis of the current market. Keene Little, CMT, combines Gann with Elliott with other techniques in his work. Jonathan Beck takes an equally innovative approach. Both rely on techniques included in the diverse Body of Knowledge of technical analysis. Please let us know what you consider to be the most important topics in the field by emailing us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
This issue starts with an update on the CMT Program. The recent addition of Bob Johnson to the Program is a step toward making a great program even
better.
The rest of the issue is a collection of insights from practitioners in the field. Classic chart patterns still form the core of the discipline, but the patterns are being used in a number of different ways and the articles that follow will show just a small sample of the type of work technicians are doing today.
Please let us know what you think about Technically Speaking by sending an email to editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Michael Carr
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Letter from the Editor
This month’s issue demonstrates the rich variety that exists within the field of technical analysis.
- Todd Campbell presents quantitative analysis showing stock market behavior after VIX extremes. This is an example of using sentiment as an input into the trading process and demonstrates the value of sentiment when applied as part of a long-term analysis.
- Kenneth G. Winans, CFA, CMT recently published his second book, Investment Atlas – Financial Maps to Investment Success which documents investment returns using richly detailed charts to place market returns into historical context. If you ever wondered how real estate has performed in France or Japan over the past fifty years, this book is for you. Along with other esoteric asset classes, Investment Atlas also shows stock and bond returns in detail for various historical events which can help those who realize history tends to repeat.
- George Schade, Jr., CMT, is certainly one of those who understands the importance of studying history. He returns to the pages of Technically Speaking with a biography of R. N. Elliott. George is a renowned expert in the history of technical analysis and his writings always offer valuable insights into the minds of the pioneers of technical analysis. Sir Isaac Newton once said, “If I have seen farther than others, it is because I was standing on the shoulders of giants.” George furthers our field by uncovering the all-too-often lost histories of the giants of technical analysis, making it possible for others to climb onto their shoulders.
- Mukul Pal uses cycle analysis to develop an analysis of what the markets may look like four years from now. It is interesting to consider how cycles are usually viewed as long-term tools but can be applied in the short-term as well. This would be application of Elliott’s work on the fractal nature of markets.
- Ashish Kyal applies traditional trendline and indicator analysis to the Indian stock market.
As always, we hope you find this issue of your newsletter to be useful. We also welcome your contributions and suggestions.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
Editor
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On the Campus
This month, instead of A Letter from the Executive Director and from the Editor, we have decided to provide you with an update from the MTA Educational Foundation. This new column is one we are looking to run frequently in upcoming issues of Technically Speaking.
The MTA Educational Foundation at Howard University
Fred Meissner, Charlie Kirkpatrick, and I, Phil Roth, all lectured at Howard University this spring. Prof. William Barbee, in the business school at Howard University, has been conducting a course in technical analysis for a number of years. The MTAEF has been assisting him with guest speakers. I have been giving a lecture in sentiment and supply/ demand indicators for four years. I spoke this year on April 22, using a Powerpoint presentation that the MTAEF developed. I have made presentations at many colleges and universities, including, among others Tulane, Cornell, Georgia Tech, Baruch, and the University of Texas, and have been conducting my own course in the Graduate School of Business at Fordham University in New York for six years. I am always impressed by the caliber of students at Howard, and their interest in the markets and technical analysis. Prof. Barbee helps generate the interest by asking questions about the indicators and the sources of the data.
Fred Meissner:
A couple of week’s ago, I had the pleasure of teaching at Howard University. I have been teaching a class at this school for several years, and really enjoy Dr. Barbee and the students. The class is scheduled for the end of the day and I almost always run over time because the interest level of the students is so high.
I usually teach the Intermarket analysis module of the course, but as always we had a fairly wide ranging discussion – Dr. Barbee’s students are almost always well prepared and are interested both in the material as well as the markets themselves. Because they are well versed in the fundamentals they keep me on my toes!
It is tremendously rewarding to teach a class in Technical Analysis. When I started in the business back in 1983 there were no such classes, and unless one was lucky enough to find the right books, or find a mentor, knowledge was almost impossible to come by. One of the reasons that I became involved in the MTA way back when was to help others learn and to spread the word. Readers may recall that my first big job with the association was as Regions Chair. It still excites me to see chapters I helped to form going strong, and now providing teachers for the MTA course.
All CMT’s, and older, experienced members, should consider volunteering as a teacher. It is a great way to give back to the community, and to spread the knowledge that has been so rewarding to all of us.
Charlie Kirkpatrick:
Professor William C. ‘Kip’ Barbee has taught technical analysis for many years as a full credit course in the Howard University School of Business. Kip is known for several research papers on relative earnings, value, and price strength and has been published frequently in academic journals. Howard University is the premier African-American university and is located in Washington DC.
As part of the MTA Educational Foundation effort to help universities in teaching technical analysis, I had the privilege of lecturing to Professor Barbee’s class this spring on the subject of price patterns. Approximately 30 students attended the class, the full number enrolled. The students were asking numerous questions and showed extreme interest in how to use patterns to profit. Indeed, the enthusiasm was so high, I didn’t get to finish the talk but ran out of time. Professor Barbee was thrilled, as was I, to see such excitement over technical analysis.
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From the President’s Desk
Your new officers and board members for the 2006-2007 year are now all in place and have already dug in and begun to work. I want to welcome the two new directors, Sherman McClellan and Bruce Kamich, who joined the Board on July 1. Sherman is a long-time technician and first time Board member. Bruce is a past President of the MTA.
Since our last newsletter the certification committee has completed the grading of the CMT 3 tests, and the results are quite gratifying for all of us involved in the accreditation process, as well as the candidates. Two-thirds of the candidates passed the demanding four-hour essay examination and are now in line for their Chartered Market Technician designation. The solid pass rate is a testimony to the quality of the candidates and to their knowledge and preparation. On behalf of the Board of Directors, I congratulate them. If they are already members or when they complete the membership process, they will be awarded their CMT’s.
Our annual long range planning meeting is scheduled for September 9 in New York. You will be reminded of the precise location and time on the MTA web site and in the newsletter. The long range planning meeting is one of the few times the MTA Board can get together face-to-face to discuss at length the important issues facing the MTA and the profession of technical analysis. Our Board members are scattered across the U.S. (and Canada). The meeting is, of course, open to the whole membership, and the Board encourages participation from all members. If you want to offer your opinions, you can attend or you can make your wishes known to the Board. You can email me or any other Board member with questions or comments if you are not able to attend in person.
The search for a new Executive Director goes on. The Search Committee has additional applicants to consider. However, the MTA Board would like to make it clear that it is still open to suggestions for new candidates. If you have experience in running a small business (the MTA has a five-person staff), especially if you have experience with not-for-profit organizations, or if you know someone with that background, let us know. Knowledge and interest in technical analysis are important criteria, but the ability to manage, and to work with and encourage volunteers are critical. We are looking for someone with good verbal and written communication skills and the ability to analyze financial data and make business strategy decisions. There is some travel involved, including visiting chapters and prospective chapters, and in seminar planning and execution. We are offering competitive compensation with comparable not-for-profit organizations in the New York metropolitan area. As you know, the MTA office is presently in Woodbridge, New Jersey (less than an hour from New York), but we remain committed to moving the office back to New York as soon as possible. Cover letters and bios can be sent to me at the MTA office by email or regular mail.
The vacation season is in full force. But the MTA is a year-round operation and the Board members and committee chairs will be working hard. There will be monthly educational meetings, regular Board meetings, and normal committee functions throughout the summer. The seminar committee is working on the agenda for the winter getaway and is planning the spring seminar in New York. If you have suggestions for speakers and topics, please let us know. In the meantime, it is business as usual for the staff in Woodbridge. If your summer plans take you to the New York-New Jersey area, then stop in our office, say hello, and browse in the library.
Sincerely,
Phil Roth, CMT
President
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Contributions
- Breakout 3 Track 1 – Making your Research Relevant -
Seasoned technical analysts share their insights with young professionals on how like one, you can become a global award winner, or like the other, you can become a published author.
- Momentum & Reversion -
A webcast presentation by Mukul Pal, CMT originally held on February 5th, 2014 as part of the CMT Association's Educational Web Series.
Momentum and Reversion are considered two different strategies, styles of investing. A few even believe that 25 years of research has failed...
- Performance Cycles - Filters, Signals and Indexing (Webcast) -
A webcast presentation originally held on January 16th, 2013 by Mukul Pal, CMT as part of the CMT Association's Educational Web Series.
- Performance Cycles -
Performance Cycles
Mukul Pal gives us a look at Performance Cycles on July 21, 2010 as an ongoing part of the CMT Association Educational Web Series.
- Technically Speaking, November/December 2015
- Technically Speaking, October 2015
- Technically Speaking, December 2013
- Technically Speaking, September 2013
- Technically Speaking, April 2013
- Technically Speaking, April 2012
- Technically Speaking, August 2008
- Technically Speaking, May 2008
- Technically Speaking, July, 2006
