Philip J. Roth, who holds the Chartered Market Technician designation, was the Chief Technical Market Analyst at Miller Tabak + Co. from 2001 until April 2012. Phil was a Wall Street professional for 46 years, and has been in the industry for over half a century, having served as the chief market technician at Morgan Stanley, Dean Witter, Shearson Lehman, EF Hutton, and Loeb Rhodes. He is a three-time past President of the CMT Association and a former director, as well as a former director of the New York Society of Security Analysts.
Phil is currently Vice President of the Technical Analysis Educational Foundation. He is an Adjunct Professor in the Graduate School of Business at Fordham University and at IE Business School in Madrid, Spain, and has lectured at Baruch, Pace, Columbia, Cornell, Georgia Tech, Howard, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Seton Hall, Tulane, the University of Wisconsin, the University of Virginia, and the University of Richmond. Roth served as Interim Executive Director of the CMT Association from September 2015 to January 2016.
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[post_content] => With the vaccine roll-out in full swing, we can truly see the light at the end of the tunnel. For those of us in the colder Northern climates, the pending Spring is double good news since we’ve been cooped up inside our own homes. Who cannot wait to go to their favorite restaurant and not have to wear a parka?
The downside? Now we have to shed those pandemic pounds so we can wear more than sweat pants. I think I’ll take that.
Since mid-February, the markets have finally been interesting. Tech investors saw a “correction” while at the very same time portions of the rest of the market were at all-time highs. Gold is in the tank but oil is at multi-month highs. Remember last year when it went negative? Fun times – not. And have you seen copper?
Then, of course, there is all that debt out there. Liquidity … until the piper shows up for payment.
On a more somber note, over the past few weeks we’ve lost three great people and assets to the Association. Les Williams was a model of involvement, with participation and leadership in many areas in the Association over the years. Not only that, he was a genuinely nice guy and his signature adorns the CMT charter hanging on my wall. Bernadette Murphy, who was known to greater Wall Street as a leader for decades, was instrumental in legitimizing technical analysis as a true investment discipline. Younger members may not know of her, but they should. Memorials for both of these great people are in this month’s edition, and this month’s photo archive features a few shots of them. We've also got a brief tribute to Bill Sharp, co-founder and past President of the CSTA - the technical society in Canada.
This month’s member interview is with Michael Gayed CFA, who is a multiple winner of the Dow Award and awards from other groups. Walter Deemer, a now-retired technical analysis veteran, has put decades of his writings and analysis online for all to see. What was it like in the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s? Just read his comments.
He also happens to be the subject of this month’s Fill the Gap, the CMT Association's official podcast.
Of course, we have news from the Association, and President Scott Richter offers his thoughts about helping our colleagues out of any lingering career effects from the pandemic.
Don’t forget, you can submit articles for publication here. As long as they are about technical analysis or the business (not forecasts) we want to see them. Yes, even from brand new analysts. Write something. How do you think I, a physics major in college, got to be a columnist and editor? I wrote – a lot. Now it is your turn.
We want your photos, too. Book reviews, software reviews, thoughts on regulation, anything that members would find useful or interesting relating to technical analysis.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => This month marks the one-year anniversary of the start of the 2020 market debacle. Think about how far we’ve all come since then: new highs, economic recovery, light at the end of the COVID tunnel and plenty of other things. We mourn for those we’ve lost and look forward to when our daily activities can return to normal.
What the pandemic may have done is accelerate trends in innovation and massive changes in how we work and play. Think about that when you fire up your Sony Betamax and Palm Pilot. Does your computer have a floppy disc drive? It may not even have a CD drive, anymore.
To quote an old French proverb, “the more things change, the more they stay the same.” The point is that the economy is always changing and industries come into and out of favor. So does debt. And hard assets. And entertainment. And travel. And real estate. You get the point. Don’t get stuck on yesterday’s trends. We are likely starting some huge ones now.
This month, we’ve dipped into the archives for a piece written by our own Dr. Julie Dahlquist many years ago. It talks about how there is good information in technical indicators. And, of course, it never hurts that it pokes a little fun at our economist colleagues.
And speaking of archives, there is one more photo from deep in the history of the Association. If you have any photos of seminars, speeches, winter retreats or just at the bar with fellow technicians, please send them along. We lost many great photos when our office in the Twin Towers came down on 9/11.
This month’s member interview is with Association Vice President Brett Villaume. And our president, Scott Richter, addresses how technical analysis helped him and his firm navigate the frothy waters of the recent short squeeze-a-palooza. Also, while a little delayed, this month’s chapter summary from Hong Kong presents the most thorough account of their December speakers. For those of us in an American mindset, the focus was on Asian markets, so consider that a treat.
Top it off with Association news and a link to the second offering in our new podcast series, “Fill the Gap,” and some recognition of recent member award winners across the globe.
Don’t forget, we can always use content. How about exercising your writing chops and sending in something about how you analyze the markets or how the Association has made your professional life better? No forecasts, please.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => Well gang, we made it. The New Year is here and 2020 is in the rear-view mirror. I hope we all learned something, and that includes something about market behavior.
Although the stock market ended at all-time highs, it was a rather lackluster December with not much in the way of enthusiasm. Of course, we can come up with all sorts of excuses, such as politics, pandemics (not to make light of it) and payments (stimulus, or lack thereof). This did not matter, as Santa came a-calling and stocks came out of the gate at full gallop. Bitcoin at $42,000. Nothing to see here, bubbleheads. Maybe a breakout in bond yields might get you worried? Move along. How about Tesla? Who cares, as long as the Russell is outperforming?
You can take away what you like from all of that. Most of us, of course, will let the charts tell us when something is changing.
The January edition of Technically Speaking is Association-centric, with news of and about our membership and activities. Topping the list is the inaugural edition of our new official podcast, Fill the Gap, featuring first Association president Bob Farrell. We even have an old photo of Bob in the Photo Archive this month.
Also, read about the Academic Partner Program, as we expand the presence and teaching of technical analysis at the university level. And don’t forget, nominations for new Directors of the Association are now open. This is a good time to network and find out who can help steer the Association for the next few years.
This month’s member interview is with Jeff Weiss, CMT, who many members know as an energetic speaker and educator, not to mention a pretty good technician. We’ve got the regular Association news, including some career opportunities, a chapter speaker summary and announcement of the upcoming Weath365 Summit, where several of our members are speaking and all members are welcome at no cost.
Don’t forget, we are always looking for contributed articles and you can repurpose something you’ve already written. Just limit it to education, market environment or the business of being a technician. Market forecasts do not age well. We are always here at editor@cmtassociation.org.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => Well, it is finally over! Or is it?
What is “it” anyway? It could be the pandemic, as on November 9 we got some excellent news on the vaccine front. Or it could be the election, which looks like a blue win but with a lot of legal challenges on the docket. Or maybe it was the end of ridiculously low T-bond rates? No, I don’t include any Fed changes in that one. Twitter? Zoom?
I’d go with all of the above, which was actually no answer.
So it goes as Halloween morphs into Thanksgiving. One thing is for sure: everyone cannot wait until 2021. Keep your extra hour of sleep as the clocks were changed back.
Fortunately, there is always something good happening in your Association. From a wildly successful India Summit to the upcoming Charles H. Dow Award competition to the next round of CMT exams, the CMT never sleeps. Our CMT Program enrollment numbers, including the cohort of candidates that had to postpone their exam in June, are up dramatically.
In this month’s edition of Technically Speaking, we have some good stuff, too. Our feature article is by Michaael Gayed, CFA, a two-time winner of the Dow Award, on market returns given the current level of the VIX. The result is actually against what we might think and that is what makes it valuable.
Ian McMillan, CMT is our member interview, the old faithful Minneapolis chapter is back with a speaker review, and we’ve got an announcement of the Reuters Investment Summit, for which the CMT Association is a sponsor.
Joel Pannikot gives us a taste of what to expect for the 2021 CMT Symposium, using the India Virtual Summit model to explain what the staff is changing about the Symposium and what's staying the same.
And if you have been procrastinating, this is the last call to submit your paper for the next Dow Award with details inside. There is another entry from the photo archive and news from around the Association.
Enjoy! Just keep your pumpkin spice to yourself.
- Michael Kahn, Editor
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[post_content] => As the most unusual of years rolls on, Summer gives way to Autumn in the north and the stock market gets its third wind. Although subject to change at any time, since the March low, we’ve seen a second quarter rally and a June correction. Then a third quarter rally and a September correction. If the pattern holds, we’re good until December, right? No, that is far from a prediction, but who among us does not like patterns?
The election is nigh and with any luck, we’ll know sooner rather than later what we are getting for the next four years. More importantly, the cloud of uncertainty overhanging the markets will dissipate and we know they like that better.
Are you getting back to a somewhat normal life? Have you gotten a professional haircut yet? Or is your garage filled with empty Amazon boxes? Even better, have you taken advantage of all the time you saved not commuting to brush up in a new technical technique? Did you binge watch the educational videos available to members?
Association President Scott Richter has been investigating artificial intelligence and machine learning; writing about it in his monthly address here. Perhaps it is time for you to read a few articles on the subject because if the lockdown has taught us anything it is that business as usual is probably gone. You will need to know new things to keep your business growing.
John Letizia returns with this month’s feature article, which looks at another possible casualty of 2020 – the Oil/Gold Ratio. One interesting mention was the perfect storm this year for oil, as demand dried up from slower economic activity and supply soared as Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to have a pumping contest.
Otherwise, this month’s content is a little light because we were all gearing up for the India Summit that took place October 10-11. Clearly, there was no time to gather reviews and stories but we should have plenty for the November newsletter. Anyway, there is still other news to report with membership news and this month’s member interview with Michael Zuber, of Lowry Research. He is a great example for younger members, first finding TA and then finding the CMT Association.
Finally, we introduce a new occasional series called the CMT Photo Archive where we take a journey back in time to see our colleagues at events and gatherings in picture form. We may not be able to gather in person right now, but we can certainly reminisce until we're able to again. If you have any old photos, please scan and send to us here at editor@cmatassociation.org.
Happy October to all and please keep the pumpkin spice to yourself.
- Michael Kahn, Editor
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[post_content] => There are many songs about the end of summer, most talking about getting back to work or school, essentially ending the lazy, carefree days. If that’s you, perhaps you forgot this is 2020! Up is down, Zoom is the word and Wednesday is Sunday (at Carvel). People cannot wait for fall, hoping that things will get better on the virus, economic and back-to-school fronts.
However, after several months of really good stock market action, September gave also us that rude awakening that stocks can actually go down, and by a lot, in any given day. Even worse, crude oil, after sitting there for months, looks terrible again. And the greenback, after hitting a multi-year low, looks kind of “bottomy.” Is that it for gold?
Never let it be said that the markets – all of them – are boring.
Now that we are all supposed to be back at work, whether virtual or in person, it is time to get back to our plans. Of course, not the same old plans, but plans to move forward, nonetheless. As you will see, content here is a bit beefier now than it was over the summer. And the Association is getting back to long-range planning and getting CMT testing back into gear. This month, we also announce the 2021 Charles H. Dow Award, with updated submission requirements.
Also in this edition, we have Rui Matos’ article on seasonality in the commodities markets, and how to hedge/profit using options. Alon Horesh shares his thoughts on Machine Learning with regard to finding support and resistance levels. And this month’s member interview is with Vincent Randazzo, CMT, from Lowry Research.
From the Association, we’ve got membership news, and an announcement for remote proctoring in the CMT exams. The Washington DC/Baltimore had a virtual meeting in July and offered a few notes about their guest speaker.
There you go. Keep your fingers crossed that we are on the road to normalcy.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => As I write this, the Nasdaq has completely erased its pandemic drop and most everything else looks pretty good. Overbought, but better than any of the so-called economists had predicted.
There is one thing we technicians need to watch and that is trying to put the market’s action since February in a neat little box. I am not saying that this time is different – because it never is different – but that really only applies to the forces that govern free markets. What happened was entirely created by the governments around the world. Don’t get me wrong – with the information we had at the time, it seemed like the right move.
In other words, to avoid being political, it was not the free market that caused the market to fall. We did not see breadth divergences that tipped off the arrival of the bear. We did not see any “nifty fifty” behavior where the entire market’s gain was due to a handful of stocks (don’t debate me on this; I know the extended FANG bunch was responsible for large percentages). The yield curve was right again. And money was still flowing - liquidity is bullish.
What we had were businesses being forced to close and people getting laid off through no fault of the companies for which they worked. But that is all starting to reverse, as we knew it would.
So why, then, should we be able to look at a chart pattern and expect it to predict as similar patterns created by true market forces? No, I am not saying supply and demand don’t work – they do. What troubles me is looking at trendlines and support and resistance levels and hoping they will work in the same way as they would during “normal” volatility, free market times.
Use your tools. Just remember the environment we are all in, and give them a little slack.
This month, we are light on content from chapters and committees, thanks to the lockdown, although the Minnesota Chapter remained quite active. However, you will see that the Association is implementing virtual meetings, which means that any member can attend any chapter meeting. That is a good idea!
This month’s interview is with Theodore Krintas, co-chair of the Hellenic Chapter in Greece. We’ve got an article connecting seasonality with the pandemic, which is very interesting but a little off of our technical analysis mission. And we also have to say goodbye to another long-time member and CMT contributor, Dick Dickson, who passed away suddenly on June 1.
Don't forget to check out the new educational content in the video archives with links at the bottom of this edition.
We hope you are all coping with the lockdown and the slow reopening. Be safe.
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[post_content] => The joke running around the Internet is that this 2020 Leap Year had 29 days in February, 300 days in March and five years in April. It is already a year of biblical proportions, with locusts swarming in Africa, the global plague of COVID-19, and then murder hornets arriving in Washington state. The foot of snow that fell in the Northeast on May 8 seemed mild, but we can just wonder if June is thinking, “hold my beer.”
Yes, it is a different world. Millions are out of work, yet the stock market is on the road to recovery. I hold my tongue when my online friends wonder how that could be. It brings me to a quote from former Association president Phil Roth, who said, “The biggest mistake a fundamental analyst makes is thinking a stock and a company are the same thing. The biggest mistake a technical analyst makes is thinking they are different.”
But wait! There’s more!
Let’s not forget that crude oil traded at negative numbers in April thanks to the destruction of demand in the pandemic and so much supply that there was literally no place to put it. And the government is flooding the market with so much liquidity that negative interest rates seem to be a given in the U.S., as they already are across Europe and the world. The Fed wants to buy junk bonds, for crying out loud!
But again, in a world where many businesses were mandated to close, that fortunately does not apply to most of us in the Association. Our businesses can exist in a no-touch world. And it is our responsibility to keep going, and to be thankful.
In this month’s issue, we are thankful for the time spent with several technicians who have passed away. Tony Tabell, the second Association president is memorialized by Ken Tower, who worked for him long ago. Kenneth Safian, a long-time member and contributor also left us, as did Jim Schmidt, publisher of Timer Digest.
The CMT Association's own Barbara Terry has a great story about the initiative between the CMT Association and the CFA Association in Minnesota to fight hunger.
Also in Minnesota, that Chapter held its first virtual meeting with speaker Mark Newton, CMT.
This month’s member interview is with Jim Erdmier, CMT, co-chair of the Chicago Chapter. We acknowledge members who were finalists and winners in their categories at the Technical Analyst (magazine) Awards. And, of course, we’ve got a few encouraging words from the CMT Association president and other Association news as we continue to mint fresh new CMTs.
Lockdown, schmockdown! The CMT Association is open for business!
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => Dear Members,
For more than 50 years, the CMT Association has existed to advance the discipline of technical analysis. This core value established by our founders guides us as we face the difficult challenge of responding to the coronavirus (COVID-19), which the World Health Organization has declared a global pandemic.
Our hearts and thoughts go out to the families who have been directly affected by this unprecedented event and we appreciate the healthcare workers, local communities, and governments around the world who are on the front line working to contain this coronavirus. We also applaud all CMT Members engaged in unselfish acts: caring for family and friends; supporting co-workers and colleagues; aiding those in our communities without the privilege to work remotely or lean on savings to fill their pantries.
As the situation grows, the CMT Association has also been impacted. In the interest and health of our members, the Board of Directors decided on March 14th to postpone the upcoming 47th Symposium. The decision was not make lightly, but we know that the event will come back stronger in the years to come. The Association is closely monitoring the pandemic with an eye on the CMT Program. While it has not been immediately impacted, we are in close contact with Prometric to make sure that we have all the current information.
Compounding the challenges of disrupted travel, uncertain business planning and clear public health threats, we know that all our members are shouldering responsibilities for firms and clients trying to navigate tumultuous and uniquely volatile market behavior. So, in the spirit in which the CMT Association was first forged 50 years ago, lean on us for the resources you need to get through this difficult period. Here are a few quick resources you can access from anywhere.
Resources
1. Journal of Technical Analysis – 70 issues over 40+ years of research by practitioners for practitioners.
2. Weekly Webinars – View the schedule of upcoming live digital presentations
-
- Watch A 2020 Market Roadmap by Todd Sohn, CMT of Strategas, presented on Feb 19th here
3. CMT Youtube Channel – share video presentations, podcast interviews and other free content with your network here
4. CMT on Twitter – Converse with members and stay current with the latest market commentary from CMT charterholders all over the world at https://twitter.com/cmtassociation
Community Leadership
Whether you reside in Mumbai, Milwaukee, or anywhere in between, we all have some difficult times ahead. While it is challenging to resist getting swept up in the media frenzy or falling victim to our own emotional response to sharp losses and client frustrations, remember that this is a time when the industry is counting on our community to bring calm rational perspectives and disciplined guidance. It is on you to be the leader now. Here’s how you can help in the short-term:
1. Speak to the media, and let us know when that happens so we can amplify that through our social media networks.
2. Share resources with colleagues at your firm. Send them links to articles or archived videos at www.cmtassociation.org
Long-Term Relevancy
We are trading through what will be an incredible case study in the future. Here's how you can leverage this for your career and the global recognition of the CMT Charter.
1. Submit your research to the Charles H. Dow Award competition. Use this market environment to track and monitor your strategies. Share your work and help us all advance the discipline of technical analysis.
2. Advocate within your firm. Does your employer support ongoing professional development? Can all CMT charterholders use the designation on business cards and research reports? Do they have a learning & development team we can speak with about the value we bring to employees and the firm’s clients? Make your suggestions or introductions to Alvin, Tyler, or Joel - @cmtassociation.org.
3. Do your colleagues or institutional clients want to improve their professional practice? Introduce them to the CMT Program.
As we have often been told, hope is not an investment strategy. Hope does not lie in a rate cut or a stimulus package. It comes from calm leaders who are experts in their field sharing objective facts and honest recommendations. CMT Association members have a responsibility to the industry right now. Please send your thoughts and recommendations on how you are taking action and how we can engage deeply in that work with you right now, and for the weeks and months to come.
On behalf of all CMT Members and staff around the world, we wish you and your families health and safety in the weeks and months ahead.
Sincerely,
The CMT Association Board of Directors
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, March 2020
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[post_content] => The month of March is said to come in like a lion and go out like a lamb. If we apply that to this January, it was pretty much the reverse. After months of nary a hiccup, the stock market growled its way into the close and in the process wiped out its early gains.
It does seem that the market was set up for a problem, from overzealous sentiment to various valuation comparisons to 2000. Still, the real problem was knowing when. The market needed an excuse to do what it had to do and along came another deadly virus to virtually shut down the world’s second largest economy.
And what better time to think about what we did right and what we did wrong leading up to the top? Did we panic at the first whiff of the Hindenburg Omen? Was the CNN Fear and Greed Index our kryptonite? Did we play along with record unemployment? BTFD? Or panic when the yield curve arguably inverted again? Iran? China (the trade deal part)? Politics? Plunging oil? Plunging copper?
To all that, all the pure technician in me hears is, “blah, blah, blah.”
No, I’m not going to say none of that matters but it does make me appreciate the simply beauty in assessing price action itself. Or, as we say here in my new gig, Supply and Demand.
This month, we continue Bruno DiGiorgi’s History of Wall Street series with installment number five. We’ve also got a piece from a decade ago called
The Top Technical Analysts, which answers the question many of us hear – “Where are the rich technicians?” It was written in 2013 so the numbers are off, as are some of the firm names. But it is a timeless story that should make all technicians proud, especially when doubt creeps in that our processes don’t work anymore.
This month’s member interview is with Greg Harmon, of Dragonfly Capital Management. Considering he never heard of the CMT Association until fairly recently, he’s gotten quite involved.
There is chapter news from New York and Minnesota, as per usual, and we once again plead for other chapters to let us know what is going on with their members and programs.
We’ve also got a list of CMT candidate resources, membership news and an invitation to submit a paper to one of our partner organizations. Don’t say there are no places for you to publish your ideas. And as always, we’d love to publish something you wrote right here in this newsletter. Can you think of a better place for beginners to share their ideas? Don’t worry, we don’t bite. In fact, we’ll help you develop your writing style.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] =>
Letter from the Editor
Well, another year is in the books and unless you were a short-only equities trader, you probably did well. I’m not going to give you the typical year-in-review in the markets because you all have your own charts.
Rather, let’s look at where we are as an organization and all we need to know is that we are growing. We’re global. We’re recognized by the regulators. And we’re actually kind of fun.
Yes, that fun is in a nerdy sort of way - but through chapter meetings, online presentations and the annual symposium, we do get together quite a bit. Of course, we also hoist a few cold ones after the serious stuff is over.
I joined the organization in 1994, if memory serves. At first, I was just an associate member before I became a professional member. At the time, my membership was a bit unusual because I was not officially trading, advising or managing money with technical analysis. Rather, I was the technical analysis product manager for a vendor called Tradecenter, which was owned by Knight-Ridder Financial at the time. It was my job to identify new analyses to add to the service, define it for programmers, test it with real and simulated data and then teach the customers how to use it.
From that starting point, I got more involved in the Association, first as a committee member, then a committee chair, then newsletter editor for the first time, and eventually as a member of the Board of Directors.
There is plenty of diversity in what we do and plenty of opportunity in how you can contribute to the Association. I encourage you to find your angle of interest and simply join that committee. As a largely volunteer-powered organization, we need you!
This month, we’ve got the latest installment of Bruno DiGiorgi’s History of Wall Street series, in which we learn more about how Wall Street got its name. The very reliable New York and Chicago chapters have speaker reviews for your enjoyment. And this month’s member interview is with David Keller, CMT.
Toss in the usual Association news and there you have it.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, January 2020
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Letter from the Editor
November proved to be an interesting month for the markets. Just before the market burped up a post-Thanksgiving 2% pullback, the Russell 2000 finally broke out from its 2019 range. False hope? Recession time? Once again, the sloth (look it up) of bearish economists was out with the utterly useless prediction that a recession was coming by the end of 2021. Thanks for the heads up, fellas. Have you seen a price chart?
I keep a collection of equally dim-witted headlines. Last month’s favorite was “Don’t Time the Market, but If You Do, Here’s When the Bear Might Come Knocking.”
Do as I say, not as I do.
Gold is still correcting, Oil showed a little stealthy increase, the dollar looks a little shaky and apparently Europe is still so bad that the ECB is dipping back in the QE well…Because it worked so well the last time. Again, have they ever seen a price chart?
This month in Technically Speaking, we’ve got part three of Bruno DiGiorgi’s History of Wall Street, and George Schade, CMT, continues the history theme with a story about preserving the technical analysis of legend Edmund W. Tabell.
This month’s member interview is with Stanley Dash, Program Director of the CMT program and a well-established technician in his own right. You may know him as a technical educator at TradeStation, where he spread the gospel.
New York, Minnesota and Richmond chapters weigh in with reviews of their recent speakers. Hey other chapters who are not Northern Ohio and Chicago, can you help a TA brother out with reviews of your own?
In addition to all this, you can find Association news, congrats to new CMTs and another job posting all inside.
If you’ve got a book out, let us know so we can tell everyone. Also, if you are hiring technicians, we can post that here.
And one more time, I ask members to submit articles they’ve written (not forecasts but methods) or write something new to share your knowledge with the group. If you are new, this is a great way to develop your chops as an analyst and a writer.
Yes, I am begging for content! It’s your Association. Get involved.
To all, a joyous and profitable end of the year. See you back here in 2020.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2019
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[post_content] => As the leaves finally turn here in the New York area, the stock market has once again reached new highs, at least according to the big indices. But just when you stopped looking, the Russell clawed back to the top of its year-long range and the NYSE composite – the average Joe index – is at a two-year high.
Could it be that the converse to “sell in May” is finally going to work? The answer is, of course, who knows? The usual suspects still hold us hostage: China and the Fed. The latter seems to be on hold after the last rate hike.
There are a few things of note, namely the resurgence of retail stocks and banks. The dollar may be breaking down, too. Copper may still be comatose, but look at platinum soar!
This month in Technically Speaking, we’ve got part two of Bruno DiGiorgi’s History of Wall Street and a twist on an old, less-well-known indicator by David Steckler. New York and Minnesota Chapters weigh in with speaker reviews, and our member interview is with Ken Tower, CMT, a past president of the Association.
We’ve also got a similar interview with CMT Association Executive Director Alvin Kressler. It is easy to think of him as just an administrator, but when you look at his career, he is truly one of us.
Of course, we’ve got Association news, including the announcement of 27 new CMTs.
If you’ve got a book out, let us know so we can tell everyone. Also, if you are hiring technicians, we can post that here.
And as usual, I ask members to submit articles they’ve written (not forecasts but methods) or write something new to share your knowledge with the group. If you are new, this is a great way to develop your chops as an analyst and a writer.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2019
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[post_content] => Forget March. October came in like a lion as the news cycle and economic reports stomped on the bulls. Considering that September was rather tame, it was a big wake-up call for stock jocks.
But September did have its moments. The U.S. dollar soared and the UUP bullish dollar ETF nearly hit all-time highs (set in 2008). Gold, which still holds a long-term breakout, faded all month, not surprisingly. Bitcoin barfed (my opinion embedded there). The long Treasury yield recovery failed while the curve inverted and un-inverted again. And crude oil gave up its gains and then some after the Saudi oil field attack.
There are fun markets to trade everywhere!
Lest we forget, after peaking in 2014, the number of UFO sightings dropped this year to date to a 19-year low. I don’t quite see the correlation to any market, and especially not cannabis.
So, while we sip our pumpkin spice (barf again) and watch this October’s volatility, remember that the “good part” of the year is upon us. No, not the seasonal strength for stocks but the CMT Association’s rolling out of all sorts of good stuff to make your work life better and easier.
In this issue, we’re re-running a series from Technically Speaking’s past on the history of Wall Street, written by Bruno DiGiorgi. Did you know how the term “broker” came about? It had nothing to do with investors getting broker the more they traded.
And since we’re in the rerun spirit, we’ve got an article from Adam Koos that ran last May in Proactive Advisor magazine. In it, Adam details his CMT journey and how it helped him in his advisory business. It’s a testament to the value of the designation and the process of getting it.
I’ve also included a short piece on the “spirit of technical analysis.” Basically, it asks the question, “Does your precise analysis make sense in the real world?”
We have an interview with the legendary Louise Yamada, whose work decades ago helped shape the analysis we practice today.
Of course, we’ll round it off with Association news, updates from the CMT program, members in the media and chapter speaker reviews from New York, Chicago and Minnesota. The latter two are my total favorite chapters because they share frequently. The rest of you, well, bless your hearts.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2019
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[post_content] => As we turn the page on another summer season, well, here in the Northern Hemisphere, traders return from the Hamptons, or wherever they park their yachts, and supposedly liquidity comes back with them. But this is no ordinary year. Between on-again, off-again trade talks with China, negative interest rates overseas and volatility during the usually quiet dog days of late August, who knows?
The yield curve inverted again while long rates plummeted to super oversold levels. Gold scored a long-term breakout, and who gave the silver market a triple espresso? Yet through it all, the NYSE advance-decline line hit a new all-time high before Labor Day.
It’s been relatively quiet on the Association front, as you would expect during the late summer. However, things are ramping back up. The first item to note is that we are now accepting submissions for the 2020 Charles H. Dow Award (details within). Registration for the next CMT exam cycle remains open, and we are welcoming a new crop of freshly-minted CMT charterholders into the fold.
This month, we’ve got an article by Stefanie Kammerman discussing dark pools. We all can agree that volume analysis has been somewhat ineffective over the past decade and one reason is that a lot of trading takes place off the exchanges. Whether you believe it or not, it is an interesting thought.
And Christopher Cain, CMT, is back with another article, this time explaining how his firm combines technical data with fundamentals and some quant methodology to only buy quality companies in rising trends.
This month’s member interview is with Fred Meissner, CMT, who has been a big supporter of the Association and has served in many positions over the years, including president.
And what has become my own favorite chapter, Minnesota, offered yet another speaker review from its monthly meeting. Come on, other chapters. We want to know what you are all up to these days. Send in your speaker reviews.
And while I am on a roll, how about individual members volunteer to send in your own reviews of relevant books you’ve read or lectures you’ve attended? Share the knowledge!
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, September 2019
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[post_content] => Once again, we find ourselves dealing with the external market forces of a China trade deal. Will we, or won’t we? But this time, China went into the currency markets and nobody liked that very much.
And the internal forces, somewhat internal, anyway, of the Fed dropping rates – giving the market what it asked to get – was not fun either. Apparently, it was not enough.
I get that the yield curve almost demands further cuts but the economy is also pretty much at the higher end of possibilities. Why exactly do we need cuts? To appease the bond market? Or is the bond market inverted because it knows the Fed will act?
What will the historians say in 20 years? I cannot wait to find out!
Gold has a long-term breakout. Copper looks terrible. Oil, too. The Baltic Dry rate is soaring but sources tell me it has nothing to do with demand, rather for ships out under adjustments. And the amount of global debt offering negative yields is at another record.
I’ll leave it to you to decide if that is reason enough to shun stocks. But a pundit – one who is not paid to advise investors - said on the tube this morning that a trade deal with China will be good for 5000 Dow points. A different pundit said that there will be a deal before the end of the year.
Hold your nose and buy? Again, that’s up to you. It’s a good thing you use charts.
In this edition, the summer doldrums have taken hold and there is not much sizzle to report around the Association. However, the meat continues to cook, from CMT testing to international symposium summits. The Association may not be making soundbites, but rest assured things are still happening.
For example, Association Executive Director Alvin Kressler reports on not one but two events in the planning stage for our overseas members. We welcome a new crop of freshly minted CMTs. And we are about to start accepting submissions for the Charles H. Dow Award.
In chapter news, we have two reviews for presentations by the same speaker in two different cities. It is interesting to see the different takeaways in nuance, although the main points were the same.
This month’s member interview is with trading legend and all-around nice guy Larry Williams. Larry is one of the most generous people around when it comes to sharing his accumulated knowledge.
And finally, this month's feature from Chis Cain, CMT, about his experiences programming with Python. Python has become the hottest programming language on Wall Street and is now being used by the biggest and best quantitative trading firms in the world.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, August 2019
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From the Editor
Well, October certainly lived up to its spooky and quite volatile reputation. From leading momo tech stocks tanking to multiple multi-percentage point intraday moves everywhere else, I am sure antacid makers made a tidy profit. Of course, coffee, sugar and crude oil had their own action and did you see palladium’s all-time high?
This is my second edition of the new Technically Speaking and once again I must ask for volunteers to help us deliver a well-rounded offering with:
- seminar reviews
- book reviews
- software reviews
- articles on how you analyze, trade or “do” the technical analysis business
- suggestions for interviews with industry titans
- your own career move announcements.
Drop us a line at
editor@CMTAssociation.org. We welcome everyone, including newly minted members.
In this edition, we offer another of our member interviews with Phil Roth, CMT, a legend in the field and one of the most generous members with his time. And if I have not hit you over the head enough about getting involved, I’m re-running a piece I did a while ago called “Thoughts on Volunteering.”
We also have part 2 in a series that ran back in the 1990s called “Lessons from Dead Pilots,” written by Mark Eidem CMT, CFA, which gives a fascinating comparison with traders. And a report from Clint Sorenson, CMT, CFA on how an investment advisor incorporates technical analysis into an otherwise fundamentally-driven business.
Rounding it all out will be news from around the association – chapters, strategy, CMT news and events.
Michael Kahn, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2018
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
We are starting this month’s newsletter with an article that challenges the traditional models used to explain market prices. Dr. Ben Hunt argues that just as the heliocentric model of
the solar system replaced a geocentric model over time, long-held beliefs about markets need to be reexamined and updated to reflect new knowledge. Fortunately, Dr. Hunt points out that there is a market theory which lays the groundwork for a new understanding of market:
“Technical analysis is, at its heart, behavioral analysis, and as such is prime real estate to build a new investment paradigm that incorporates game theoretic behaviors.”
This is a thought-provoking piece that is followed by a practical example of how the MTA Educational Foundation is working to further this goal. We then have practical examples of how the theory of technical analysis is applied in the real world.
I hope you are a part of the theoretical and practical changes that are occurring in the financial community. If you would like to share your thoughts on those changes, please email us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
In this month’s issue, we provide summaries of several additional presentations that were made at the Market Technicians Association Annual Symposium in April. We included several summaries in last month’s issue. Speakers included some of the best minds in the technical analysis community and the presentations are filled with actionable ideas.
The presentations we’ve summarized over the past two months along with several additional presentations can be viewed online at http://go.mta.org/505.
We are always appreciative of your feedback and look forward to hearing your thoughts on Technically Speaking. You can email us at editor@mta.org.
Michael Carr
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2012
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Letter from the Editor
Every May, the MTA holds its Annual Symposium and technicians converge in New York to see old friends, meet new ones, and learn about the markets. This year was the largest gathering in history, with 350 members and affiliates from around the world gathering at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
The venue offered an interesting perspective on technical analysis. One of the fundamental principles of technical analysis is that history repeats itself. Without thinking, the NYSE seems to be a symbol of change, at least in the modern era. Electronic algorithms and high frequency trading have reshaped the investment landscape, and the Exchange has been on the leading edge of technology to adapt to penny spreads and an ever-evolving market structure.
On breaks, the Symposium attendees had a chance to wander the hallowed halls of finance sitting at the corner of Wall and Broad. Some history is displayed in those halls, a collection of pictures and memorabilia. In some ways, the Symposium was what it must feel like for a baseball fan to wander through the Hall of Fame at Cooperstown while getting to talk to the players who will have their plaques in the future. Wandering those halls on a break, I read a letter to the Exchange written by Thomas Edison on August 24. 1882. He asked for permission to run a line from the exchange for his own data service, promising to transmit quicker and more reliable data.
That letter seemed to sum up technical analysis. Investors never change; they always want an edge in the markets. History is a lot like a series of repetitive themes that play out in different ways each time. The NYSE displays proof that investors wanted faster and cleaner data for at least the past 130 years. Odds are, that will still be an issue in the twenty-second century.
History also repeats within the MTA. Every May, there is an Annual Symposium that benefits members with unique opportunities and market perspectives. It’s only June, but many are already looking forward to next May.
In this issue of Technically Speaking, we present brief summaries of a few of the presentations. We’ll offer more details on other presentations in the next issue. Videos of the presentation will soon be available in the MTA archives, and every presentation is worth watching, or re-watching for those fortunate enough to have been there.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, June 2011
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Letter from the Editor
This issue covers several basics of technical analysis. It’s often helpful to step back from the complexity we create in our field and review the time tested ideas that technical analysis has been built on.
George Schade, CMT, offers a historical perspective on the widely used stochastic oscillator. He has painstakingly researched the origin of this indicator and shows us how it was developed and explains the history of the indicator. We often forget that there was time before computers and data was difficult to obtain, and very expensive when it was found. This article takes us back in time to those simpler times, which in many ways required deeper market analysis and a greater understanding of how prices moved.
Phil Roth, CMT, details his recent experience of teaching technical analysis at a university. Phil is a major contributor to the course developed by the MTA Educational Foundation, and those wanting to learn more about the Foundation’s work can stop by their workshop at the Annual Symposium, or they can contact the Foundation directly. The ready-made course is a comprehensive summary of technical analysis, and is a tribute to Phil and those he worked with on its development.
I am hoping to meet many of our readers at the MTA Symposium this month. My opinion is that this annual event is one of the most valuable benefits of membership, and judging from the fact that the event has sold out, I am not alone in that assessment. Please let me know when we meet what articles you’d like to see in upcoming issues of the newsletter, or email me at editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, May 2011
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[post_content] =>
Letter from the Editor
This month we only have a few articles, but it will take serious students of technical analysis several hours to get through them and many more hours thinking about the ideas we present here. Eric Leake and Rob Hanna, CMT, have allowed us to reprint some of their work. Both papers offer detailed and profitable trading strategies.
Enough detail is presented for someone to immediately take their ideas and start trading. More importantly, they each provide enough detail that you can generate your own research ideas and use these papers as a starting point to develop a strategy that matches your own trading style. They should spawn countless research projects, and as you build on their work, you may want to follow their lead and publish it here for the benefit of your fellow MTA members.
Also featured in this month's newsletter is an announcement from the MTA Educational Foundation discussing an online eBay auction and fundraising event. These are exciting and important events to help raise awareness and celebrate the opening of the MTAEF/MTA Library at Baruch College.
I’m certain that Rob and Eric are not the only two MTA members delivering such high quality research to clients. If you’d like to share your work with your colleagues, please send it to us at editor@mta.org.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, October 2009
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Letter from the Editor
The content in this month’s newsletter is similar to what you’ve come to expect from us. We present very brief summaries of technical perspectives offered by expert technicians Ken Tower, Ken Winans, and Jeff Lay at a recent Trader’s Expo. A link to a video of the entire panel discussion is available on your member homepage. Other articles include a couple book reviews and the Nominating Committee and Dow Award Committee have also provided important information.
This issue of Technically Speaking represents the end of an era, and the beginning of a new one. It is the last one which will be delivered as a hard copy. Beginning in January 2009, we will be using electronic delivery to serve you better.
Initially we will be delivering the same information in a different format. Once a month, we will email a newsletter similar to the other electronic newsletters many of you now receive.
Links to each article will take you to the full text, and there will be an option to print anything you’d like to study in more detail.
As soon as we can, we will add more timely updates. Interim emails will deliver short-term analysis. We will also be able to expand the quantity of material we deliver, including
more reviews of books, software, and the latest products supporting technical analysts.
We are excited about the changes that will come over the next few months. The quality of Technically Speaking will increase, and the value to you, the members, will be enhanced.
Please feel free to offer any feedback to us as we craft your new newsletter. Email me at editor@mta.org with any ideas, requests, or articles you’d like to have published.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
Editor
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2008
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Letter from the Editor
We had to add two more pages this month to fit all the content that we think you want and deserve as members of the Market Technicians Association. Technical analysis is a dynamic field and we all struggle to keep up with new developments. We read a lot of research and MTA news and as we prepare Technically Speaking each month, we struggle to fit in all the content that we would like to print while being constrained by our format limitations.
I am working closely with the MTA staff to find the best way to deliver high-quality content, and we want to make it more timely, as well. Our goal is to deliver more value for your membership, and the staff has been very responsive in trying to do this. Their efforts are not limited to the newsletter – they look to improve the organization and our benefits as they work for us every day. So we can’t say when we’ll have a solution, but as soon as possible we will expand the information we deliver to you monthly.
This month’s newsletter focuses on quantitative techniques. A few investment techniques are presented in great detail, along with back-tested results. You should be able to work with these ideas immediately and make them your own. Profitable trading ideas are one membership benefit that we hope you find among the most valuable.
But in bringing you this type of research, we quickly identify the limits of our ability to present readable graphics. The charts need to improve, and that is one of the things we will accomplish as we look at different formats.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
Editor
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, November 2008
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Letter from the Editor
This month’s issue brings a great deal of news about our organization. To paraphrase Executive Director Tom Silveri’s excellent presentation at the May Symposium, “The state of the MTA is stronger than it has ever been.” The letters from Past President Phil Roth and newly inducted President Larry Berman describe some of the efforts which have led to our growth and strength over the past few years.
We also have a detailed report about the MTA Educational Foundation course being taught at the University of Richmond. The Foundation has been actively promoting technical analysis within the academic community for a number of years. For those interested in learning more about this organization, more details can be found at their web site, www.mtaeducationalfoundation.org. A redesign of the site is currently underway, so check back often for the latest information.
Three pages of Technically Speaking are devoted to the life and work of Ian Notley, who will be missed by all who had the pleasure of meeting him. Ian’s work is certainly important, and we are able to present a few examples. We also hope you’ll take the time to read the remarks of Ian McAvity and Karl Wagner. We received several other remembrances of Ian that we didn’t have room to print.
This space is not just to pay tribute to a life well lived. Ian inspired many during his career, and we hope that more will be inspired by reading about him. He embodied all that the MTA is – knowledge, innovation, friendship, and mentorship.
In Memoriam Ian Sydney Notley
It is with great sadness that we report the passing of long-time MTA Member and friend, Ian Sydney Notley. Our thoughts are with him and his family
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
Editor
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, July 2008
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From the Editor
Just like every other function within the MTA, the newsletter is poring over the results of the Member Survey and will be changing to meet the needs of the membership. Two trends that jump out in the initial review are the growing international membership and the increased number of younger members. We intend to respond with more articles about markets outside the US and increasing the variety of technical analysis topics we cover. As we do this, we will keep in mind the fact that our readers are professionals. You aren’t reading Technically Speaking for articles like “What is RSI?” We think you want actionable information that builds on the basics. Advanced topics, requiring detailed explanations, are covered in the Journal of Technical Analysis. That leaves intermediate-level topics for the newsletter, and we will strive to deliver them in the months ahead.
Often, as in this month’s issue, we will include charts, the tool that has been a staple of technical analysis for decades. Knowing that you are professionals, we print charts that provide a general idea of the topic. Cost prevents us from printing high resolution graphics and we realize that the vast majority of our readers can call up any chart on their computer terminals in seconds. As we work to bring you more TA, and more charts, we ask that you recognize our purpose is to provide research ideas, not specific trading tactics.
I look forward to the improvements we have planned in coming months and, as always, appreciate your feedback.
Cordially,
Mike Carr, CMT
MTA Newsletter Editor
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, March 2008
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From the Editor
While the MTA continues to grow, the need for volunteers grows as well. All committees need more help, and there are several positions on the Board of Directors to fill in the next election. (more information on the call for nominees on the insert).
Many organizations seeing the growth that we enjoy would be desperate to find enough volunteers. The MTA is not facing desperate times, we are very fortunate to have a large number of active volunteers.
Hopefully no one will think we have enough volunteers, because there is always room for more. But, we are able to maintain the same amazing level of activity that we always have even as membership has grown.
If you’re not involved, look at the web site and see if there is anything that interests you. Many committees and chapters could use more help, and with more help they can deliver more high quality services. It’s your MTA, help make it even better.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, December 2007
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From the Executive’s Desk
I am pleased to report that we had one of our most successful Education Seminars (May 18-19, 2007) to date! Our Seminar was well attended and from the results of the surveys, it was well received by the participants. We are always anxious to make constant improvements to our Seminar experiences and we will be reviewing all suggestions carefully and adjusting our Seminar formats to provide the best experience for our participants.
Two things you will easily see as adjustments recently made by the MTA:
- We have decided that the quality of our webcasts needed to be improved as, with increased regularity, it is a key modality for the dissemination of our technical analysis information to our Membership. Our website now has many of our Spring Seminar presentations displayed. I believe you will see a noticeable improvement in view-ability. I urge you to take a look (www.mta.org). We intend to continue this process and build an archive of nformation as we webcast local chapter meetings, informational sessions, market forecast panels, etc.
- By the time you read this, you will see some of the improvements that have been recently made to the www.mta.org website. Information has been re-categorized, redesigned, etc. to make it easier to navigate and get to the information you need in a minimum of effort. We have added information on the ‘Home Page” and added a “Prospective Member Page” to help those interested in the pursuit of technical analysis make decisions in this area.
Lastly, we are working hard “behind the scenes” on seeing what we can do to expand member knowledge concerning the current job market environment. We have randomly conducted some surveys (selectively so as not to overload members with e-mail), explored possibilities for adjustments and will be executing some activities in this area within the next quarter.
Sincerely,
Tom Silveri
MTA Executive Director
[post_title] => Technically Speaking, June 2007
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From the Executive’s Desk
The primary objective of any successful Association is to ensure its membership receives value. The MTA is off to an excellent start in 2007 to providing that value. Over the course of the last month, the MTA has provided free seminars to its membership on the following topics:
- The value of the CMT designation in today’s market and the CMT accreditation process (both through a webinar led by Chris Ruspi, CFP, CMT and webcast NY Chapter meeting by David Keller, CMT).
- The MTA code of ethics by former MTA President Charles Comer, CMT
- Technology Tutorial - How to maximize this ongoing method of media transmission
In addition, through a combination of collaborative agreements with trade publishers, additional MTA purchases and ongoing donations from Members, we have considerably added to the depth and current nature of our library material. See some of the new additions in this publication or check in the library section of our MTA.org website. And, of course, we continue to provide local chapter meetings (with an increasing number on our website, our annual Journal and our monthly Newletters. In this publication you will see information from 3 MTA Presidents - Current President Phil Roth, CMT, Former President Ralph Acampora, CMT, and Former President Phil Erlanger, CMT.
Finally, we are in the process of planning for the May Annual Education Seminar, which will take place on May 18-19th in NYC. We are planning an Education Track and Advanced Lecture Track, a market forecast panel, etc. with some of the industry’s most notable speakers. Be on the lookout for information regarding this seminar and please join us. I am confident it will be a worthwhile event for all who attend.
Sincerely,
Tom Silveri
MTA Executive Director
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From the Executive’s Desk
The month of January traditionally sees the start of many initiatives as attention turns to the New Year. The MTA is no different. This past month saw the culmination of several initiatives that was in process and the start of some exciting new initiatives. Let me describe them for you.
On the completed side
- In Mid-January we held our Mid-Winter Retreat in Miami Beach, Florida. Over 125 seminar attendees, speakers, guests and staff were in attendance. By all accounts this retreat was certainly one of our very best. Over 10 well-known and highly regarded speakers provided a learning environment which allowed for the passing of ideas in a relaxed networking environment. Our Awards dinner continued our time-honored tradition of recognizing our exemplary performers. Please read about the Retreat in the following pages and don’t forget that our May Educational Seminar is right around the corner (May 18th-19th) in NYC. I hope to see you there.
- By the time you read this newsletter, the MTA headquarter staff will be set up in our new Headquarters facility at 61 Broadway, 5th floor, in NYC. We will slowly transfer phone lines, computers and library materials so we are ALWAYS in touch with our membership base. We will have an “Open House” at the facility in the beginning of March, 2007 and if you are in the town, we would hope you stop by. If not, however, when you are next in NYC, we would urge you to take a couple of minutes and visit us in our new location.
- Our Annual “Journal” was issued to the membership. Special thanks to our Journal Editor, Charles Kirkpatrick, CMT, for the selection of some of the finest articles in the industry today. We urge you to read through this publication. In addition, Charlie is taking completed articles all the time so if you have a piece that you wish to share, please pass it to Charlie at Kirkco@capecod.net.
This month, we “kicked-off” several initiatives
- Fred Meissner, CMT as our Volunteer Czar, has developed a process to match volunteers to MTA needs and to ensure this experience is rewarding for all parties. If you are interested in volunteering for certain MTA matters, and I urge you to do so, please contact Fred at Fred@MTA.org.
- We have commenced a process to capture, through in-depth interviews, some of the early leaders in technical analysis. We owe it to ourselves to capture this wealth of knowledge surrounding the formulation of our industry, and where it is going, from the early leaders of our practice. It is truly a worthwhile initiative in our opinion. It is being led by Messrs. Acampora and Meissner and will be coordinated by our MTA headquarter staff.
On the Horizon
- We have recently opened registration for the Spring CMT test. Our Window for the examination will be April 26th to May 5th, 2007. We urge you to register early for your exam to ensure the best time and location. You can register on-line or contact Marie Penza at Marie@mta.org for any questions you may have. For this examination, we are planning on providing:
- A free internet web-cast, led by Chris Ruspi, CMT, on the overall test process, materials for study and best practices to the exam taking, to be held on Feb. 17.
- A free internet web-cast on the MTA Ethics which is, of course, part of the examination process.
Be on the lookout for announcements on these sessions and please sign-up early.
- We will provide, as in the past, an internet based tutorial for all parts of the examination (Levels I-III) through our CMT Institute. Our experience in this format continues to grow and gain acceptance by the participants. In addition to the instructor led sessions, we will provide a free web-cast on the technology behind these sessions to ensure that the technology is familiar to you BEFORE the sessions start. See the announcement on the CMTi in this newsletter (see page 4) which includes some testimonials from previous participants.
Be on the lookout for announcements on these sessions as well and again, please sign-up early.
Sincerely,
Tom Silveri
MTA Executive Director
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From the Editor’s Desk
This issue of Technically Speaking offers insight into the excitement and energy within the Market Technicians Association. The recently concluded Long Range Planning Committee meeting merits prominent space on the cover of the newsletter to draw attention to the fact that the Board is looking to the membership for ideas on how to grow and improve the MTA. Inside, we bring you news that a new Executive Director has been hired to lead the implementation of our ideas. After more than 30 years as an organization, the future of the MTA looks brighter than ever.
At the Long Range Planning meeting, I had the opportunity to speak with Ralph Acampora. Ralph mentioned that he never expected to see the MTA grow from its humble beginnings to an organization recognized by the SEC and NYSE as legally equivalent to the CFAI. What amazed me, and many others that I spoke with, is that this growth in professionalism has not come at the expense of the “clubbiness” we have long enjoyed.
The greatest value of my MTA membership is the personal relationships which have come from actively participating in the organization. (Astute readers will recognize that the monthly pitch to volunteer is beginning here.) I began writing my first article for the newsletter less than 60 days after I became an affiliate. Then-editor Michael Kahn worked closely with me for years, and helped to develop the skill that I have. At Seminars, I have been able to meet the giants of our field, and have learned more from them than I could have by reading every book in the vast library we can access as a benefit of our membership.
I have never hesitated to contact MTA members for their insights, and have always been warmly greeted. Consider volunteering for a committee or chapter, and start taking advantage of the greatest value your membership offers – participation.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
Editor
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From the Editor’s Desk
This month we introduce Contributing Editor Molly Schilling, an MTA affiliate. In this issue, you’ll find Part 1 of her In-Depth interview with Josh Rosen. Molly did an outstanding job providing insight into the mind and work of a New York Stock Exchange Specialist with Kellogg Group. As a market maker on the floor of the NYSE, Josh is one of the people responsible for ensuring traders can trade. What and how he thinks may lead to insights that help us trade better.
During the May Seminar in New York I had the chance to ask Josh why the floor at every exchange is always gunning for my stops. He had a very Michael Corleone-like expression as he told me it was nothing personal, just business. Stops tend to be clustered and it’s his role to provide liquidity. He must assume that we want trades to occur at the stop prices, and he is only doing his job when he allows me to exit my long at the low of the day. He also pointed out that in the very short term, stop points usually represent good buy or sell prices. When you think about it, stops are support and resistance and as traders, we expect bounces at these levels.
From that conversation, I learned to place wider stops. The losses are bigger when they are hit, but they are hit less often. Overall, that short talk with Josh has helped me to become a little more profitable. And, conversations like that represent the largest part of the value of my MTA membership.
In coming months, Molly will be offering more insights into the minds that make the markets. Hopefully we can all learn a little from each of her skillful interviews. As always, I hope you learn a great deal from this issue of Technically Speaking.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
Editor, Technically Speaking
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From the Editor’s Desk
As we prepare for the MTA’s Long-Range Planning Meeting to be held in September, we face a very fundamental question here at Technically Speaking – “What is our purpose?” This newsletter can serve many purposes:
- Publish the original work of members and affiliates.
- Reprint articles from other sources which contribute to the knowledge of our membership.
- Disseminate news from the MTA.
- Connect Regions by collecting news from their meetings. Meeting summaries share knowledge and news, and seem to be enjoyed by our readers.
In the past, we have attempted to do all these things, and in this issue we include information from each of these categories. But we have never learned what you, our readers, are actually expecting from us. Over the next month, please take a moment and send us your comments about what you think our purpose should be. You can e-mail me at editor@mta.org.
While thinking about that question, we hope you’ll enjoy the newsletter. On the cover, you noticed an interview with Welles Wilder, previously published in The Trader’s Journal. We have all seen Wilder’s work, and this interview offered us a chance to learn more about the technician behind RSI and other indicators. To me, the most interesting part of the interview is when he attributes his success to his ability to write advertising copy. What an interesting insight – no one knows how good you are until you tell them about your work.
We also have a software review, prepared by Matt Blackman, a frequent contributor to our newsletter who recently moved from affiliate to member status. Writing for us helped Matt
to become better known within the MTA, and made it easier for him to find sponsors. (That last sentence is my subtle monthly request for your contributions.)
You’ll also find an original study on seasonality by Frank Testa in this issue. Along with the list of Regions contacts and assorted news about our Association, it’s a typical newsletter. However, you have many choices of where to publish your work, and where to read about technical analysis. Maybe Technically Speaking no longer meets the needs of our members. Perhaps you’d rather a slimmer newsletter with only MTA news, or a longer newsletter with more current analysis. Unless you tell us what you’d like to see, we’ll continue delivering what we hope is a high-quality, must-read product every month.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
Editor
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From the Editor’s Desk
This issue focuses on the MTA Education Seminar. Attendees spent two days listening to the latest ideas on trading and learning the fundamentals of technical analysis. Some presentations are summarized in this issue; a few more will appear next month. We also hear about a recent LA chapter meeting, and we look forward to hearing about other meetings throughout the country.
The success of the Seminar demonstrates the importance of volunteers to our organization. Look over the list of committees and regions on the back page of this newsletter, and consider what you can do to help. When you have some time this month, contact a committee chairperson or a regional point of contact and talk about what you can do. The leadership of tomorrow’s MTA is working in these groups today, and you’ll be glad you became involved.
We’re also looking for someone to take on the task of newsletter editor. We’ve returned this to a volunteer position, in the spirit of every other MTA function. The editor is just another committee chairperson, soliciting help from volunteers and helping deliver incredible value for the small investment we make in our membership.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
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From the Editor’s Desk
I am honored that Phil Roth, the new President of the MTA, accepted my offer to volunteer as interim editor of Technically Speaking. Carrying on the tradition of delivering a high quality newsletter each month is quite a challenge. My immediate predecessor, John Kosar, certainly set a high standard, and he followed in the footsteps of those before him, including Michael Kahn and Anthony Dwyer. Only with your help and contributions can I begin to approach the level of publication they attained month after month.
In each issue, you’ll learn about the latest happenings within the MTA. And, while news from our organization is nice to read, I always enjoy the technical analysis articles the most. So, we need your analysis and research to continue delivering trading ideas and market insights. As you may remember, I will never quit asking for your input to make your newsletter the best it can be.
Over the next several months, this newsletter will include more discussion from local MTA Chapters including recaps of speaker presentations, and profiles of the Chapters and how they reach MTA constituents and the investment community. In this issue, Garry Rissman expertly summarizes the most recent presentation at the New York Chapter’s monthly
meetings.
Meanwhile, the Rocky Mountain Chapter is getting back into the swing of things, and chapter member Jason Meshnick offers some timely analysis of the tobacco sector. Over the next few months, we’ll get an opportunity to hear from every MTA Chapter in the country. (That’s a hint that I’d like your input.)
I hope you enjoy the newsletter, and I look forward to your comments.
Mike Carr, CMT
Editor
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Contributions
- Conversations: Podcast Interview with Phil Roth, CMT -
Conversations returns this week with Phil Roth, CMT! After wrapping up a spectacular presentation for the Minneapolis Chapter, Phil spent some time with Tim Braun, CMT and Kevin Hockert, CMT discussing his outlook on our current market.
- Conversations: Podcast Interview with Phil Roth -
This week in the CMT Association Podcast Series, Lance McDonald, CMT has the opportunity to chat with Phil Roth, CMT!
- Conversations: Podcast Interview with Phil Roth, CMT -
Philip J. Roth, a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), is currently the Chief Technical Market Analyst at Miller Tabak + Co. He is in his forty-first year as a Wall Street professional, having been the Chief Market Technician at Morgan Stanley, Shearson Lehman, EF Hutton, and Loeb...
- Using Market Sentiment to Augment Trend and Momentum Indicators -
A webcast presentation by Phil Roth, CMT and Fred Meissner, CMT originally held on April 29th, 2015 as part of the CMT Association's Educational Web Series.
- Relating Sentiment Analysis to Behavioral Finance -
A webcast presentation by Phil Roth, CMT originally held on September 4th, 2013 as part of the CMT Association's Educational Web Series.
- Sentiment - An Updated View -
Sentiment - An Updated View
On April 8th, 2009, Phil Roth, CMT presented a webcast to the CMT Association membership as part of the CMT Association Educational Web Series.
- Institutional Research Panel; Providing the Technical Tools and Research for Outperformance - 2011 Northeast Regional Seminar -
A panel discussion featuring Phil Roth, CMT (Chief Technical Market Analyst, Miller Tabak + Co.), Rick Bensignor (Chief Market Strategist, Dahlman Rose), John Roque (Senior Vice President, WJB Capital Group, Inc.) on March 10, 2011 at the 2011 CMT Association Northeast Regional...
- Market Forecast Panel Discussion - 2008 CMT Association Mid-Winter Retreat -
Market Forecast Panel Discussion - 2008 CMT Association Mid-Winter Retreat
On January 25th, 2008, Rick Bensignor, CMT, Jeff deGraaf, CMT, and Phil Roth, CMT were featured on a Market Forecast Panel at the 2008 CMT Association Mid-Winter Retreat.
- Past Presidents Panel - 2010 CMT Association May Symposium -
CMT Association Past Presidents Panel: Global Demand for TA as a Risk Management Tool
Moderated by: Jeremy Berkovits, CMT (Merc Partners) & Jeff Lay, CMT (Talon Eight, LLC)
- Technical Analysis in Today's Markets -
A webcast presentation by Phil Roth, CMT on October 3rd, 2012 as part of the CMT Association's Educational Web Series.
- Technically Speaking, November 2018
- Technically Speaking, August 2013
- Technically Speaking, July 2012
- Technically Speaking, June 2011
- Technically Speaking, May 2011
- Technically Speaking, October 2009
- Technically Speaking, December 2008
- Technically Speaking, July 2008
- Technically Speaking, March 2008
- Technically Speaking, December 2007
- Technically Speaking, June 2007
- Technically Speaking, March 2007
- Technically Speaking, February 2007
- Technically Speaking, October, 2006
- Technically Speaking, September, 2006
- Technically Speaking, August, 2006
- Technically Speaking, June, 2006
- Technically Speaking, May, 2006
