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Salma Abdulla, CFA, CMT

Salma Abdulla, CFA, CMT

Salma Abdulla, CFA, CMT is a Portfolio Manager for E. Magnus Oppenheim & Co., Inc. She joined the firm in 2005 and is responsible for equity research and portfolio management. Prior to joining E. Magnus Oppenheim & Co., Inc., Salma worked as a Proprietary Futures Trader at Goldenberg Hehmeyer Trading Co., clearing member of the Chicago Board of Trade.

Salma was awarded the CMT charter in 2014 and the CFA charter in 2008. She received her Master’s degree from the London School of Economics in 2003 and her Bachelor’s degree from McGill University (Canada). Salma is currently serving as New York Chapter Co-Chair as well as Women in Technical Analysis Chapter Co-Chair for the Market Technicians Association.  She is also a Board Member for New York Insight Meditation Center.

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            [post_content] => Happy New Year, dear readers!

Here's wishing you a year full of learning and accomplishments.

So how was 2021? Was it anything at all like 2020? I hardly doubt that a year like 2020 will make its way to us that quickly!  I feel like the year you had would be dependent on your trading style. If you're a trend follower, then opportunities came in instalments. If you're a range-bound trader, then the past year must've been a delight! But regardless of the type of trader you are, the year 2021 definitely imparted a lot of lessons!

As we enter a new market year, we look forward to the teachings of the year 2022 as well. Sure enough, the pandemic is still around, but for how long? Nobody knows. It's like asking a technical analyst how long the trend will last. Nobody has the answer. You just do what you do with the information you have today.

So, what is it that the market is saying today? Well, interest rates are certainly holding up. What that means is that financials are probably doing well in that environment. Rising interest rates translate to rising equities and commodities. Stocks and commodities are probably doing well there too. What else? Precious metals haven't been up to anything really, so at this point who knows what will happen there. We're seeing breakouts coming through in several sectors from regional banks to materials to chemicals. The Indian market has seen complete domination on behalf of the Information Technology Sector that has been the most consistently bullish sector all of last year. And what's more? It doesn't seem like it's in the mood to grind to a halt.

Markets are doing well in pockets, and that may as well be the theme going forward. We're way past that point where the market has to recover from a shock event like the 2020 crash. We may not see front-line indices putting up their best performances but we may see stock-specific moves dominate the year ahead.

So, what is one to do in such a market? As a kid, I used to play a game called Wiggly Worms. There was a big flat red apple with tiny holes in it that housed tiny worms with coloured tails. As you'd start the game, the tiny worms would come out of their homes one by one, at random, and you'd have to pull them out. The person who pulled out the greatest number of (same coloured tail) worms in under a minute won.

The point is, that we might be in a Wiggly Worm market. Different trades (worms) will jump out at you at different points in time. If they suit you, you pull them out. If they don’t, you place them back in. When the market as a whole is going up, it's easy to make money because of the bullish mood. But we may be in a market whereby relative strength will play an even bigger role than it has in the past. My plan is to take each trade as it comes rather than waiting for the combo offer deal.

In this month’s edition, we bring to you comprehensive Options strategies, a book review, and reminiscence of the MTA among others.

We’ll meet again next month. Until then, Think Technical!

Rashmi Bhatnagar, CMT

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            [post_content] => Well gang, we made it. The New Year is here and 2020 is in the rear-view mirror. I hope we all learned something, and that includes something about market behavior.

Although the stock market ended at all-time highs, it was a rather lackluster December with not much in the way of enthusiasm. Of course, we can come up with all sorts of excuses, such as politics, pandemics (not to make light of it) and payments (stimulus, or lack thereof). This did not matter, as Santa came a-calling and stocks came out of the gate at full gallop. Bitcoin at $42,000. Nothing to see here, bubbleheads. Maybe a breakout in bond yields might get you worried? Move along. How about Tesla? Who cares, as long as the Russell is outperforming?

You can take away what you like from all of that. Most of us, of course, will let the charts tell us when something is changing.

The January edition of Technically Speaking is Association-centric, with news of and about our membership and activities. Topping the list is the inaugural edition of our new official podcast, Fill the Gap, featuring first Association president Bob Farrell. We even have an old photo of Bob in the Photo Archive this month.

Also, read about the Academic Partner Program, as we expand the presence and teaching of technical analysis at the university level. And don’t forget, nominations for new Directors of the Association are now open. This is a good time to network and find out who can help steer the Association for the next few years.

This month’s member interview is with Jeff Weiss, CMT, who many members know as an energetic speaker and educator, not to mention a pretty good technician. We’ve got the regular Association news, including some career opportunities, a chapter speaker summary and announcement of the upcoming Weath365 Summit, where several of our members are speaking and all members are welcome at no cost.

Don’t forget, we are always looking for contributed articles and you can repurpose something you’ve already written. Just limit it to education, market environment or the business of being a technician. Market forecasts do not age well. We are always here at editor@cmtassociation.org.

Michael Kahn, CMT

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            [post_content] => Just when everyone pooh-poohs our beloved “Sell in May” saw, it somehow starts to work. Or maybe it was just that the S&P 500 hit resistance on waning momentum? Hmm. I, for one, do not blame a tweet. And I also don’t expect this series of coincidences to dictate my summer outlook. By the way, as I write this, the Dow is right where it was when it (and the Spoo) scored their golden crosses in late March.

The truth is that the markets have changed since some of our indicators were created or discovered, and we have to change with them.  That’s why it is so important to keep learning. And keep respecting your “stops” on indicators that no longer produce results.

What better place to learn that at the CMT Association annual symposium? This year’s is in the books, but even if you were unable to attend, you’ll be able to get a few insights from the presenters. We’ve got summaries of several of them in this newsletter edition.

If you were there and took notes, we’d love to get a few paragraphs of individual presentations or the seminar as a whole. Send them to me at editor@cmtassociation.org.

Also in this issue is our series of member interviews, this month with John Kosar, CMT, of Asbury Research. Joyce and Dr. Daniel Miller are back with part two of their series on copyrights. This is an important topic for any of us that publish any works, from books to reports to blogs.

We also pay tribute to long-time member Stephen Cox, CMT, who passed away this month. He was instrumental in establishing the Dow Award.

And, of course, we’ve got some member news, from new CMTs to available resources.

- Michael Kahn, Editor
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