Scott Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which manages over $4B in AUM. He is the lead portfolio manager for alternative assets and is also responsible for investments in the energy and utility sectors. He was formerly the co-manager of Fifth Third Asset Management’s Large Cap Value Strategy. Prior to Fifth Third, he was a founding partner of Weber Fulton Felman Investment Counsel.
He has been a guest/contributor to CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, Barron’s, and Reuters.
He holds a BS in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Rochester and an MBA from Harvard Business School.
Scott now serves as President of the CMT Association. He has been a member of the CMT Association since 2000 and a CMT Association Board member since 2013.
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[post_content] => With the vaccine roll-out in full swing, we can truly see the light at the end of the tunnel. For those of us in the colder Northern climates, the pending Spring is double good news since we’ve been cooped up inside our own homes. Who cannot wait to go to their favorite restaurant and not have to wear a parka?
The downside? Now we have to shed those pandemic pounds so we can wear more than sweat pants. I think I’ll take that.
Since mid-February, the markets have finally been interesting. Tech investors saw a “correction” while at the very same time portions of the rest of the market were at all-time highs. Gold is in the tank but oil is at multi-month highs. Remember last year when it went negative? Fun times – not. And have you seen copper?
Then, of course, there is all that debt out there. Liquidity … until the piper shows up for payment.
On a more somber note, over the past few weeks we’ve lost three great people and assets to the Association. Les Williams was a model of involvement, with participation and leadership in many areas in the Association over the years. Not only that, he was a genuinely nice guy and his signature adorns the CMT charter hanging on my wall. Bernadette Murphy, who was known to greater Wall Street as a leader for decades, was instrumental in legitimizing technical analysis as a true investment discipline. Younger members may not know of her, but they should. Memorials for both of these great people are in this month’s edition, and this month’s photo archive features a few shots of them. We've also got a brief tribute to Bill Sharp, co-founder and past President of the CSTA - the technical society in Canada.
This month’s member interview is with Michael Gayed CFA, who is a multiple winner of the Dow Award and awards from other groups. Walter Deemer, a now-retired technical analysis veteran, has put decades of his writings and analysis online for all to see. What was it like in the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s? Just read his comments.
He also happens to be the subject of this month’s Fill the Gap, the CMT Association's official podcast.
Of course, we have news from the Association, and President Scott Richter offers his thoughts about helping our colleagues out of any lingering career effects from the pandemic.
Don’t forget, you can submit articles for publication here. As long as they are about technical analysis or the business (not forecasts) we want to see them. Yes, even from brand new analysts. Write something. How do you think I, a physics major in college, got to be a columnist and editor? I wrote – a lot. Now it is your turn.
We want your photos, too. Book reviews, software reviews, thoughts on regulation, anything that members would find useful or interesting relating to technical analysis.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => This month marks the one-year anniversary of the start of the 2020 market debacle. Think about how far we’ve all come since then: new highs, economic recovery, light at the end of the COVID tunnel and plenty of other things. We mourn for those we’ve lost and look forward to when our daily activities can return to normal.
What the pandemic may have done is accelerate trends in innovation and massive changes in how we work and play. Think about that when you fire up your Sony Betamax and Palm Pilot. Does your computer have a floppy disc drive? It may not even have a CD drive, anymore.
To quote an old French proverb, “the more things change, the more they stay the same.” The point is that the economy is always changing and industries come into and out of favor. So does debt. And hard assets. And entertainment. And travel. And real estate. You get the point. Don’t get stuck on yesterday’s trends. We are likely starting some huge ones now.
This month, we’ve dipped into the archives for a piece written by our own Dr. Julie Dahlquist many years ago. It talks about how there is good information in technical indicators. And, of course, it never hurts that it pokes a little fun at our economist colleagues.
And speaking of archives, there is one more photo from deep in the history of the Association. If you have any photos of seminars, speeches, winter retreats or just at the bar with fellow technicians, please send them along. We lost many great photos when our office in the Twin Towers came down on 9/11.
This month’s member interview is with Association Vice President Brett Villaume. And our president, Scott Richter, addresses how technical analysis helped him and his firm navigate the frothy waters of the recent short squeeze-a-palooza. Also, while a little delayed, this month’s chapter summary from Hong Kong presents the most thorough account of their December speakers. For those of us in an American mindset, the focus was on Asian markets, so consider that a treat.
Top it off with Association news and a link to the second offering in our new podcast series, “Fill the Gap,” and some recognition of recent member award winners across the globe.
Don’t forget, we can always use content. How about exercising your writing chops and sending in something about how you analyze the markets or how the Association has made your professional life better? No forecasts, please.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => Well gang, we made it. The New Year is here and 2020 is in the rear-view mirror. I hope we all learned something, and that includes something about market behavior.
Although the stock market ended at all-time highs, it was a rather lackluster December with not much in the way of enthusiasm. Of course, we can come up with all sorts of excuses, such as politics, pandemics (not to make light of it) and payments (stimulus, or lack thereof). This did not matter, as Santa came a-calling and stocks came out of the gate at full gallop. Bitcoin at $42,000. Nothing to see here, bubbleheads. Maybe a breakout in bond yields might get you worried? Move along. How about Tesla? Who cares, as long as the Russell is outperforming?
You can take away what you like from all of that. Most of us, of course, will let the charts tell us when something is changing.
The January edition of Technically Speaking is Association-centric, with news of and about our membership and activities. Topping the list is the inaugural edition of our new official podcast, Fill the Gap, featuring first Association president Bob Farrell. We even have an old photo of Bob in the Photo Archive this month.
Also, read about the Academic Partner Program, as we expand the presence and teaching of technical analysis at the university level. And don’t forget, nominations for new Directors of the Association are now open. This is a good time to network and find out who can help steer the Association for the next few years.
This month’s member interview is with Jeff Weiss, CMT, who many members know as an energetic speaker and educator, not to mention a pretty good technician. We’ve got the regular Association news, including some career opportunities, a chapter speaker summary and announcement of the upcoming Weath365 Summit, where several of our members are speaking and all members are welcome at no cost.
Don’t forget, we are always looking for contributed articles and you can repurpose something you’ve already written. Just limit it to education, market environment or the business of being a technician. Market forecasts do not age well. We are always here at editor@cmtassociation.org.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => With December now here, the world is eager to kiss 2020 goodbye, and likely, good riddance. It was a tough year for many people as they lost their jobs, their dreams and even their loved ones. Many of us in the Association are privileged, because we work in an industry that thankfully stayed open for business, even if the markets tanked in a once-in-a-generation way. As a metaphor for the real world, 401-ks are back at new highs as the light at the end of the tunnel is shining brightly.
Let’s just jump right into the content of this month’s newsletter. We start with an article excerpted from Proactive Advisor Magazine, where technical analysis is offered as a way to enhance risk-adjusted returns. It’s not the center of the piece but it does show that even for fundamentally oriented managers, there is value is what we do. Everyone is a closet technician, it seems.
From around the Association, we’ve got chapter meeting reviews from Chicago and Minneapolis. This month’s member interview is with Lane Mendelsohn, President of VantagePoint AI software and a second-generation member of the Association.
News from the CMT front and another installment from the photo archive round things out.
Do me a favor, please. Make one of your New Year’s resolutions to get more involved in your Association. At the very minimum, you will meet other members. Every member interview we’ve done says that networking is one of the greatest benefits of membership, even if we are still working remotely. And whether you are an old-timer or fresh-faced newbie, how about contributing a book or software review or even an interesting blog post you’ve already written? My advice for anyone looking to advance their career is write, write, write ... and where better to get your work published than in your own Association of like-minded professionals?
- Michael Kahn, Editor
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[post_content] => As the most unusual of years rolls on, Summer gives way to Autumn in the north and the stock market gets its third wind. Although subject to change at any time, since the March low, we’ve seen a second quarter rally and a June correction. Then a third quarter rally and a September correction. If the pattern holds, we’re good until December, right? No, that is far from a prediction, but who among us does not like patterns?
The election is nigh and with any luck, we’ll know sooner rather than later what we are getting for the next four years. More importantly, the cloud of uncertainty overhanging the markets will dissipate and we know they like that better.
Are you getting back to a somewhat normal life? Have you gotten a professional haircut yet? Or is your garage filled with empty Amazon boxes? Even better, have you taken advantage of all the time you saved not commuting to brush up in a new technical technique? Did you binge watch the educational videos available to members?
Association President Scott Richter has been investigating artificial intelligence and machine learning; writing about it in his monthly address here. Perhaps it is time for you to read a few articles on the subject because if the lockdown has taught us anything it is that business as usual is probably gone. You will need to know new things to keep your business growing.
John Letizia returns with this month’s feature article, which looks at another possible casualty of 2020 – the Oil/Gold Ratio. One interesting mention was the perfect storm this year for oil, as demand dried up from slower economic activity and supply soared as Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to have a pumping contest.
Otherwise, this month’s content is a little light because we were all gearing up for the India Summit that took place October 10-11. Clearly, there was no time to gather reviews and stories but we should have plenty for the November newsletter. Anyway, there is still other news to report with membership news and this month’s member interview with Michael Zuber, of Lowry Research. He is a great example for younger members, first finding TA and then finding the CMT Association.
Finally, we introduce a new occasional series called the CMT Photo Archive where we take a journey back in time to see our colleagues at events and gatherings in picture form. We may not be able to gather in person right now, but we can certainly reminisce until we're able to again. If you have any old photos, please scan and send to us here at editor@cmatassociation.org.
Happy October to all and please keep the pumpkin spice to yourself.
- Michael Kahn, Editor
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[post_content] => There are many songs about the end of summer, most talking about getting back to work or school, essentially ending the lazy, carefree days. If that’s you, perhaps you forgot this is 2020! Up is down, Zoom is the word and Wednesday is Sunday (at Carvel). People cannot wait for fall, hoping that things will get better on the virus, economic and back-to-school fronts.
However, after several months of really good stock market action, September gave also us that rude awakening that stocks can actually go down, and by a lot, in any given day. Even worse, crude oil, after sitting there for months, looks terrible again. And the greenback, after hitting a multi-year low, looks kind of “bottomy.” Is that it for gold?
Never let it be said that the markets – all of them – are boring.
Now that we are all supposed to be back at work, whether virtual or in person, it is time to get back to our plans. Of course, not the same old plans, but plans to move forward, nonetheless. As you will see, content here is a bit beefier now than it was over the summer. And the Association is getting back to long-range planning and getting CMT testing back into gear. This month, we also announce the 2021 Charles H. Dow Award, with updated submission requirements.
Also in this edition, we have Rui Matos’ article on seasonality in the commodities markets, and how to hedge/profit using options. Alon Horesh shares his thoughts on Machine Learning with regard to finding support and resistance levels. And this month’s member interview is with Vincent Randazzo, CMT, from Lowry Research.
From the Association, we’ve got membership news, and an announcement for remote proctoring in the CMT exams. The Washington DC/Baltimore had a virtual meeting in July and offered a few notes about their guest speaker.
There you go. Keep your fingers crossed that we are on the road to normalcy.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => The Dog Days are upon us, yet the animal ruling the roost is the bull. That is, if you are in the stock market and most of the metals. Not so much if you own U.S. dollars. With the world still upside down due to the pandemic, whole swaths of the economy are likely to change; that means rethinking portfolio allocations.
But you don’t need me to tell you about the new world, as we are all living in it. I do, however, have confidence that this time next year things will be mostly back to normal. We’ll still probably look at each other as if everyone has got a secret case of the cooties, which, by the way, is a real word in the dictionary. I had no idea. But that, too, will pass with time.
In this month’s edition, we interview Jeanette Schwarz Young, options trader and educator extraordinaire. The feature article by a recent new member, John Letizia, looks at the FAANG stocks with a new spin. For most of them, the big gains have happened after hours, but that could be changing. He also introduces us to an index that tracks an expanded version of these stocks that we can actually chart.
Of course, we’ve got some Chapter meeting summaries from NY, Minnesota and Chicago, as we proceed with virtual-only meetings for the foreseeable future. We've also got another first, as the Singapore and Hong Kong Chapters held a joint virtual meeting with three speakers and several attendee polls. Check this out and see that our Asia presence is alive, well and growing.
Membership news and a message from the President round it all out. Don't forget, pricing for the CMT exams increases on September 1, so register now to get the current (Standard) price.
The post-Labor Day period typically sees activity of all sorts pick up. When we add the Presidential election drawing near, these should be “interesting times” ahead. Stay safe.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => The summer doldrums are upon us but given the slowdown in economic activity, it is hard to tell the difference. The pandemic remains topic one, while politics is creeping higher up the list. How will stocks do if Red wins? Or if Blue wins? Or if the rapper is actually serious?
As technical analysts, fortunately we don’t have to worry too much about all that. The market will sniff it out for us and it will be our job to read the signals it provides.
How have you all been coping with the socially distanced, everybody has cooties, world? We’d like to know so send in a few notes to us here at editor@cmtassociation.com. What are your clients doing differently? What are their views? Are you working from home? How has your business changed? And what can the Association do to help you?
Our President, Scott Richter, offers up some resources in his note within. However, due to last minute editing issues, we are without a feature article this month. Perhaps you, dear member, would like to submit something? As long as it is not a sales pitch or a black box, we’d love to read about an analysis or technique you use.
Have you read a good book on trading or analysis? Why not send in a quick half-page review?
What about software? Are you using something that is really helpful or unique? Tell us about it.
Otherwise, we’ve got Association news inside here, reviews of the June NY, Northern Ohio and India virtual chapter meetings and our member interview with Robert Peirce. Bob is retired now after a long career but still offers up his excellent long-term analysis to various chat rooms. We also have an exciting update on some new additions to our Academic Partner Program.
Don’t let the new world order get you down! And don’t let that be an excuse not to participate in your Association.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => As I write this, the Nasdaq has completely erased its pandemic drop and most everything else looks pretty good. Overbought, but better than any of the so-called economists had predicted.
There is one thing we technicians need to watch and that is trying to put the market’s action since February in a neat little box. I am not saying that this time is different – because it never is different – but that really only applies to the forces that govern free markets. What happened was entirely created by the governments around the world. Don’t get me wrong – with the information we had at the time, it seemed like the right move.
In other words, to avoid being political, it was not the free market that caused the market to fall. We did not see breadth divergences that tipped off the arrival of the bear. We did not see any “nifty fifty” behavior where the entire market’s gain was due to a handful of stocks (don’t debate me on this; I know the extended FANG bunch was responsible for large percentages). The yield curve was right again. And money was still flowing - liquidity is bullish.
What we had were businesses being forced to close and people getting laid off through no fault of the companies for which they worked. But that is all starting to reverse, as we knew it would.
So why, then, should we be able to look at a chart pattern and expect it to predict as similar patterns created by true market forces? No, I am not saying supply and demand don’t work – they do. What troubles me is looking at trendlines and support and resistance levels and hoping they will work in the same way as they would during “normal” volatility, free market times.
Use your tools. Just remember the environment we are all in, and give them a little slack.
This month, we are light on content from chapters and committees, thanks to the lockdown, although the Minnesota Chapter remained quite active. However, you will see that the Association is implementing virtual meetings, which means that any member can attend any chapter meeting. That is a good idea!
This month’s interview is with Theodore Krintas, co-chair of the Hellenic Chapter in Greece. We’ve got an article connecting seasonality with the pandemic, which is very interesting but a little off of our technical analysis mission. And we also have to say goodbye to another long-time member and CMT contributor, Dick Dickson, who passed away suddenly on June 1.
Don't forget to check out the new educational content in the video archives with links at the bottom of this edition.
We hope you are all coping with the lockdown and the slow reopening. Be safe.
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[post_content] => The joke running around the Internet is that this 2020 Leap Year had 29 days in February, 300 days in March and five years in April. It is already a year of biblical proportions, with locusts swarming in Africa, the global plague of COVID-19, and then murder hornets arriving in Washington state. The foot of snow that fell in the Northeast on May 8 seemed mild, but we can just wonder if June is thinking, “hold my beer.”
Yes, it is a different world. Millions are out of work, yet the stock market is on the road to recovery. I hold my tongue when my online friends wonder how that could be. It brings me to a quote from former Association president Phil Roth, who said, “The biggest mistake a fundamental analyst makes is thinking a stock and a company are the same thing. The biggest mistake a technical analyst makes is thinking they are different.”
But wait! There’s more!
Let’s not forget that crude oil traded at negative numbers in April thanks to the destruction of demand in the pandemic and so much supply that there was literally no place to put it. And the government is flooding the market with so much liquidity that negative interest rates seem to be a given in the U.S., as they already are across Europe and the world. The Fed wants to buy junk bonds, for crying out loud!
But again, in a world where many businesses were mandated to close, that fortunately does not apply to most of us in the Association. Our businesses can exist in a no-touch world. And it is our responsibility to keep going, and to be thankful.
In this month’s issue, we are thankful for the time spent with several technicians who have passed away. Tony Tabell, the second Association president is memorialized by Ken Tower, who worked for him long ago. Kenneth Safian, a long-time member and contributor also left us, as did Jim Schmidt, publisher of Timer Digest.
The CMT Association's own Barbara Terry has a great story about the initiative between the CMT Association and the CFA Association in Minnesota to fight hunger.
Also in Minnesota, that Chapter held its first virtual meeting with speaker Mark Newton, CMT.
This month’s member interview is with Jim Erdmier, CMT, co-chair of the Chicago Chapter. We acknowledge members who were finalists and winners in their categories at the Technical Analyst (magazine) Awards. And, of course, we’ve got a few encouraging words from the CMT Association president and other Association news as we continue to mint fresh new CMTs.
Lockdown, schmockdown! The CMT Association is open for business!
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => Happy Equinox, shut ins. Yes, as the seasons change, all over the globe we are staying inside and away from each other. Does that affect your mental state? You bet it does. And does it affect your market analysis and trading? Probably, but maybe not as much as it might have done a few bear markets ago when technology was still finding its way.
The coronavirus (COVID-19) situation is quite fluid so I won’t comment. However, as markets try to find their footing and our day-to-day lives are different, we’re here to provide resources for you to make the best of it. Most importantly, we can tell you that the CMT Association is still up and running, having planned for an emergency situation months and years ago. Remember, back in 2001 our headquarters were in Tower 1 of the World Trade Center, so we know a few things about preparation and resilience.
This issue of Technically Speaking will feature an article by Rob Hanna about how he operates using quantitative analysis alongside technical indicators. Our member interview is with Patrick Hennessey, a trader who has a story many members likely mirror.
Everything else touches on resources available to members, even as the office downtown is closed. Association CEO Alvin Kressler offers a few words letting us know that we are alright and will come out of this just fine. And finally, I offer up a few words about my own situation working at home, which perhaps is what so many of us are now doing. Personally, I find it a step up.
That’s all. Be safe, stay home, wash your hands and stay connected by voice or digital. Think of all this as a story you can tell your grandchildren and don’t forget to laugh about toilet paper hoarders.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => Dear Members,
For more than 50 years, the CMT Association has existed to advance the discipline of technical analysis. This core value established by our founders guides us as we face the difficult challenge of responding to the coronavirus (COVID-19), which the World Health Organization has declared a global pandemic.
Our hearts and thoughts go out to the families who have been directly affected by this unprecedented event and we appreciate the healthcare workers, local communities, and governments around the world who are on the front line working to contain this coronavirus. We also applaud all CMT Members engaged in unselfish acts: caring for family and friends; supporting co-workers and colleagues; aiding those in our communities without the privilege to work remotely or lean on savings to fill their pantries.
As the situation grows, the CMT Association has also been impacted. In the interest and health of our members, the Board of Directors decided on March 14th to postpone the upcoming 47th Symposium. The decision was not make lightly, but we know that the event will come back stronger in the years to come. The Association is closely monitoring the pandemic with an eye on the CMT Program. While it has not been immediately impacted, we are in close contact with Prometric to make sure that we have all the current information.
Compounding the challenges of disrupted travel, uncertain business planning and clear public health threats, we know that all our members are shouldering responsibilities for firms and clients trying to navigate tumultuous and uniquely volatile market behavior. So, in the spirit in which the CMT Association was first forged 50 years ago, lean on us for the resources you need to get through this difficult period. Here are a few quick resources you can access from anywhere.
Resources
1. Journal of Technical Analysis – 70 issues over 40+ years of research by practitioners for practitioners.
2. Weekly Webinars – View the schedule of upcoming live digital presentations
-
- Watch A 2020 Market Roadmap by Todd Sohn, CMT of Strategas, presented on Feb 19th here
3. CMT Youtube Channel – share video presentations, podcast interviews and other free content with your network here
4. CMT on Twitter – Converse with members and stay current with the latest market commentary from CMT charterholders all over the world at https://twitter.com/cmtassociation
Community Leadership
Whether you reside in Mumbai, Milwaukee, or anywhere in between, we all have some difficult times ahead. While it is challenging to resist getting swept up in the media frenzy or falling victim to our own emotional response to sharp losses and client frustrations, remember that this is a time when the industry is counting on our community to bring calm rational perspectives and disciplined guidance. It is on you to be the leader now. Here’s how you can help in the short-term:
1. Speak to the media, and let us know when that happens so we can amplify that through our social media networks.
2. Share resources with colleagues at your firm. Send them links to articles or archived videos at www.cmtassociation.org
Long-Term Relevancy
We are trading through what will be an incredible case study in the future. Here's how you can leverage this for your career and the global recognition of the CMT Charter.
1. Submit your research to the Charles H. Dow Award competition. Use this market environment to track and monitor your strategies. Share your work and help us all advance the discipline of technical analysis.
2. Advocate within your firm. Does your employer support ongoing professional development? Can all CMT charterholders use the designation on business cards and research reports? Do they have a learning & development team we can speak with about the value we bring to employees and the firm’s clients? Make your suggestions or introductions to Alvin, Tyler, or Joel - @cmtassociation.org.
3. Do your colleagues or institutional clients want to improve their professional practice? Introduce them to the CMT Program.
As we have often been told, hope is not an investment strategy. Hope does not lie in a rate cut or a stimulus package. It comes from calm leaders who are experts in their field sharing objective facts and honest recommendations. CMT Association members have a responsibility to the industry right now. Please send your thoughts and recommendations on how you are taking action and how we can engage deeply in that work with you right now, and for the weeks and months to come.
On behalf of all CMT Members and staff around the world, we wish you and your families health and safety in the weeks and months ahead.
Sincerely,
The CMT Association Board of Directors
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[post_content] => The month of March is said to come in like a lion and go out like a lamb. If we apply that to this January, it was pretty much the reverse. After months of nary a hiccup, the stock market growled its way into the close and in the process wiped out its early gains.
It does seem that the market was set up for a problem, from overzealous sentiment to various valuation comparisons to 2000. Still, the real problem was knowing when. The market needed an excuse to do what it had to do and along came another deadly virus to virtually shut down the world’s second largest economy.
And what better time to think about what we did right and what we did wrong leading up to the top? Did we panic at the first whiff of the Hindenburg Omen? Was the CNN Fear and Greed Index our kryptonite? Did we play along with record unemployment? BTFD? Or panic when the yield curve arguably inverted again? Iran? China (the trade deal part)? Politics? Plunging oil? Plunging copper?
To all that, all the pure technician in me hears is, “blah, blah, blah.”
No, I’m not going to say none of that matters but it does make me appreciate the simply beauty in assessing price action itself. Or, as we say here in my new gig, Supply and Demand.
This month, we continue Bruno DiGiorgi’s History of Wall Street series with installment number five. We’ve also got a piece from a decade ago called
The Top Technical Analysts, which answers the question many of us hear – “Where are the rich technicians?” It was written in 2013 so the numbers are off, as are some of the firm names. But it is a timeless story that should make all technicians proud, especially when doubt creeps in that our processes don’t work anymore.
This month’s member interview is with Greg Harmon, of Dragonfly Capital Management. Considering he never heard of the CMT Association until fairly recently, he’s gotten quite involved.
There is chapter news from New York and Minnesota, as per usual, and we once again plead for other chapters to let us know what is going on with their members and programs.
We’ve also got a list of CMT candidate resources, membership news and an invitation to submit a paper to one of our partner organizations. Don’t say there are no places for you to publish your ideas. And as always, we’d love to publish something you wrote right here in this newsletter. Can you think of a better place for beginners to share their ideas? Don’t worry, we don’t bite. In fact, we’ll help you develop your writing style.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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Letter from the Editor
Well, another year is in the books and unless you were a short-only equities trader, you probably did well. I’m not going to give you the typical year-in-review in the markets because you all have your own charts.
Rather, let’s look at where we are as an organization and all we need to know is that we are growing. We’re global. We’re recognized by the regulators. And we’re actually kind of fun.
Yes, that fun is in a nerdy sort of way - but through chapter meetings, online presentations and the annual symposium, we do get together quite a bit. Of course, we also hoist a few cold ones after the serious stuff is over.
I joined the organization in 1994, if memory serves. At first, I was just an associate member before I became a professional member. At the time, my membership was a bit unusual because I was not officially trading, advising or managing money with technical analysis. Rather, I was the technical analysis product manager for a vendor called Tradecenter, which was owned by Knight-Ridder Financial at the time. It was my job to identify new analyses to add to the service, define it for programmers, test it with real and simulated data and then teach the customers how to use it.
From that starting point, I got more involved in the Association, first as a committee member, then a committee chair, then newsletter editor for the first time, and eventually as a member of the Board of Directors.
There is plenty of diversity in what we do and plenty of opportunity in how you can contribute to the Association. I encourage you to find your angle of interest and simply join that committee. As a largely volunteer-powered organization, we need you!
This month, we’ve got the latest installment of Bruno DiGiorgi’s History of Wall Street series, in which we learn more about how Wall Street got its name. The very reliable New York and Chicago chapters have speaker reviews for your enjoyment. And this month’s member interview is with David Keller, CMT.
Toss in the usual Association news and there you have it.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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Letter from the Editor
November proved to be an interesting month for the markets. Just before the market burped up a post-Thanksgiving 2% pullback, the Russell 2000 finally broke out from its 2019 range. False hope? Recession time? Once again, the sloth (look it up) of bearish economists was out with the utterly useless prediction that a recession was coming by the end of 2021. Thanks for the heads up, fellas. Have you seen a price chart?
I keep a collection of equally dim-witted headlines. Last month’s favorite was “Don’t Time the Market, but If You Do, Here’s When the Bear Might Come Knocking.”
Do as I say, not as I do.
Gold is still correcting, Oil showed a little stealthy increase, the dollar looks a little shaky and apparently Europe is still so bad that the ECB is dipping back in the QE well…Because it worked so well the last time. Again, have they ever seen a price chart?
This month in Technically Speaking, we’ve got part three of Bruno DiGiorgi’s History of Wall Street, and George Schade, CMT, continues the history theme with a story about preserving the technical analysis of legend Edmund W. Tabell.
This month’s member interview is with Stanley Dash, Program Director of the CMT program and a well-established technician in his own right. You may know him as a technical educator at TradeStation, where he spread the gospel.
New York, Minnesota and Richmond chapters weigh in with reviews of their recent speakers. Hey other chapters who are not Northern Ohio and Chicago, can you help a TA brother out with reviews of your own?
In addition to all this, you can find Association news, congrats to new CMTs and another job posting all inside.
If you’ve got a book out, let us know so we can tell everyone. Also, if you are hiring technicians, we can post that here.
And one more time, I ask members to submit articles they’ve written (not forecasts but methods) or write something new to share your knowledge with the group. If you are new, this is a great way to develop your chops as an analyst and a writer.
Yes, I am begging for content! It’s your Association. Get involved.
To all, a joyous and profitable end of the year. See you back here in 2020.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => Forget March. October came in like a lion as the news cycle and economic reports stomped on the bulls. Considering that September was rather tame, it was a big wake-up call for stock jocks.
But September did have its moments. The U.S. dollar soared and the UUP bullish dollar ETF nearly hit all-time highs (set in 2008). Gold, which still holds a long-term breakout, faded all month, not surprisingly. Bitcoin barfed (my opinion embedded there). The long Treasury yield recovery failed while the curve inverted and un-inverted again. And crude oil gave up its gains and then some after the Saudi oil field attack.
There are fun markets to trade everywhere!
Lest we forget, after peaking in 2014, the number of UFO sightings dropped this year to date to a 19-year low. I don’t quite see the correlation to any market, and especially not cannabis.
So, while we sip our pumpkin spice (barf again) and watch this October’s volatility, remember that the “good part” of the year is upon us. No, not the seasonal strength for stocks but the CMT Association’s rolling out of all sorts of good stuff to make your work life better and easier.
In this issue, we’re re-running a series from Technically Speaking’s past on the history of Wall Street, written by Bruno DiGiorgi. Did you know how the term “broker” came about? It had nothing to do with investors getting broker the more they traded.
And since we’re in the rerun spirit, we’ve got an article from Adam Koos that ran last May in Proactive Advisor magazine. In it, Adam details his CMT journey and how it helped him in his advisory business. It’s a testament to the value of the designation and the process of getting it.
I’ve also included a short piece on the “spirit of technical analysis.” Basically, it asks the question, “Does your precise analysis make sense in the real world?”
We have an interview with the legendary Louise Yamada, whose work decades ago helped shape the analysis we practice today.
Of course, we’ll round it off with Association news, updates from the CMT program, members in the media and chapter speaker reviews from New York, Chicago and Minnesota. The latter two are my total favorite chapters because they share frequently. The rest of you, well, bless your hearts.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => As we turn the page on another summer season, well, here in the Northern Hemisphere, traders return from the Hamptons, or wherever they park their yachts, and supposedly liquidity comes back with them. But this is no ordinary year. Between on-again, off-again trade talks with China, negative interest rates overseas and volatility during the usually quiet dog days of late August, who knows?
The yield curve inverted again while long rates plummeted to super oversold levels. Gold scored a long-term breakout, and who gave the silver market a triple espresso? Yet through it all, the NYSE advance-decline line hit a new all-time high before Labor Day.
It’s been relatively quiet on the Association front, as you would expect during the late summer. However, things are ramping back up. The first item to note is that we are now accepting submissions for the 2020 Charles H. Dow Award (details within). Registration for the next CMT exam cycle remains open, and we are welcoming a new crop of freshly-minted CMT charterholders into the fold.
This month, we’ve got an article by Stefanie Kammerman discussing dark pools. We all can agree that volume analysis has been somewhat ineffective over the past decade and one reason is that a lot of trading takes place off the exchanges. Whether you believe it or not, it is an interesting thought.
And Christopher Cain, CMT, is back with another article, this time explaining how his firm combines technical data with fundamentals and some quant methodology to only buy quality companies in rising trends.
This month’s member interview is with Fred Meissner, CMT, who has been a big supporter of the Association and has served in many positions over the years, including president.
And what has become my own favorite chapter, Minnesota, offered yet another speaker review from its monthly meeting. Come on, other chapters. We want to know what you are all up to these days. Send in your speaker reviews.
And while I am on a roll, how about individual members volunteer to send in your own reviews of relevant books you’ve read or lectures you’ve attended? Share the knowledge!
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => We are still talking about trade battles with China and an arguably inverted yield curve. Yes, there are other perennial thorns in the paw (Iran and North Korea) but they don’t have much market moving history. As June ended, we got a trade battle truce and the stock market soared. Imagine what will happen if something actually gets done!
I still have a problem with calling the yield curve inverted, as most of it is upward sloping. Only the three-month bill is out of whack as I write this on July 1 and that is rather tied to the Fed. Will they cut, or won’t they? Before the trade truce, fed funds trading had a rate cut for a certainty for this month. Now? Maybe not so certain.
What I can see that is problematic is that the entire curve shifted lower compared to a month ago. And a quick scan of some global debt shows a lot of fractional, and even negative, benchmark yields. All that cannot be good.
Yet gold is backing down to test its breakout. Again, I am writing on July 1 so you all will know how that went.
Bitcoin. Again. Technical analysts’ paradise, investors’ nightmare. When the prices for retro Air Jordans on the
StockX sneaker exchange are more stable than the “currency of the future,” I like to watch from afar. The lyrics of Bob Dylan dance in my head – “When will they ever learn? When will they ev-er learn?”
This month, we have an interesting white paper excerpt from TrendSpider about their new raindrop charts. It attempts to give the TA a feeling for how the day or hour developed, similar to market profile, although chartable like candles. However, volume is incorporated as in a VWAP.
This month’s member interview is Les Williams, CMT, who has been active in the association for many years and in many roles. My own CMT certificate was signed by him when he was the Chair of the Admissions committee.
And the Millers are back with the fourth and final installment of their series on copyrights. Again, this is an important topic for anyone who publishes books, newsletters and even blogs.
We've got three Chapter speaker reviews from Atlanta, Denver and Minnesota. Our regular association member news. And a little career advice for newbies urging everyone to write, write, write, no matter how green you may be.
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor
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[post_content] => Thanks to the constraints of newsletter publishing and the lack of time travel resources available, this edition of Technically Speaking was put to bed before the festivities of the 46th Annual Symposium, earlier this month. While we could not magically forecast what the speakers would say, rest assured we will have plenty of information and reviews in the next edition. If you haven't taken the post-Symposium survey yet, you can do that
here.
The funny thing about time is that this time is never different. While we usually apply that to analysis and the behavior of crowds, we are still applying it to the news of the day. Brexit was supposed to happen March 29, but it was delayed and still they argue over what it will look like. Trade with China is still up in the air. The Mueller report is finally out, and while we don’t know all the details inside, everyone still clings to their previous views.
What else is not different? Headlines! The three-month Treasury yield ticked above the 10-year yield and suddenly the media was in a panic over the curve inversion. Funny, the 2-year is still below the 10-year and that seems more important to me, especially now that the Fed said it’s done raising rates for now.
All of that hides the fact that the domestic stock market continued to claw its way back towards last year's highs. That’s pretty good for a geriatric bull market, yes? If you want to argue whether the bull started in 2008 or 2015 or some resistance breakout, be my guest. We don’t get paid to label things, only to make money.
Vincent Randazzo, CMT, from Lowry’s returns with another article and one indication why the current rally is not done yet.
And on a more mundane, although really important, topic, George Schade, CMT, introduced us to publishing and copyright specialists Joyce and Daniel Miller. The Millers offer part one in a series of articles walking us through the details of staying on the right side of the law. Whether you write books, newsletters or just post to your blog, this is important stuff to know.
I’ve found another of my vintage articles, explaining how to be a good interviewee on financial TV. This is a loose part 2 to last month’s article talking about dealing with the media. If you want to get invited back for another round of talks, you need to know this stuff.
And this month’s member interview is with Richard Dickson, also from Lowry’s. One more in a long, long, long list of professionals who started with the analysis herd and then saw the light that is technical analysis.
We also have a brief recap of those who received Association honors at the Symposium. They are listed within. And finally, we'll top this edition off with the usual news about the goings on around the Association.
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[post_content] => The same old news seems to hang over the markets like a low level cow emission of uncertainty. Brexit – will it be hard or soft? China – will there be a trade deal or not? North Korea – nukes or no nukes? The Fed – quantitative tightening or not? Politics – not going there.
The new news was the Green New Deal, spearheaded by the freshman representative from New York. This supposed economic stimulus and equality plan was widely criticized for its disruptive goals and impossibly fast timeline. We’ll leave the debating to the debaters and concentrate on what that means for us and our investing clients. Basically, it means some industries will get a boost and others will get a drag, if not elimination.
Do we, or should we, really care about legislation that probably will not become law? The answer is yes, but for a reason any technical analyst should appreciate. There is already a trend in place towards a greener economy. Fully powered by the free market, we already see electric vehicles, high efficiency heating and cooling in buildings, natural gas heating oil and coal, renewable gas technology improving, solar and wind power costs coming down, and so on and so on. Green is coming, with or without a push from Washington. It’s what the people demand. They just don’t want to go cold turkey with no gas-powered pickup trucks, forced veganism and tripled electricity costs.
This month, we’re getting ready for the 46
th Annual Symposium, scheduled for April 4-5 in New York. There is still time to register.
We also continue with our member interview series, this month featuring Mark Arbeter, CMT. In addition to this, we're carrying on the interview theme with a revisit to a presentation I did for the CMT Association last year called “Writing for the Media,” which teaches a few things about doing it right. And Lance Roberts offers some tips on being a good interview subject for TV or radio.
Minnesota and Chicago chapters sent in reviews of recent meetings and Tom Bruni, CMT and our own Tyler Wood reviewed the recent Chart Summit weekend in Colorado.
Of course, there is association news, including reason to show off your CMT designation. Be a CMT, loud and proud!
Michael Kahn, CMT
Editor, Technically Speaking
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[post_content] => So far, this year has been dominated by the partial government shutdown. Does it affect the markets? Well, maybe indirectly. New issue IPOs are held up due to a lack of resources at the regulators. Tax refunds may be delayed, so investors might be a little cash tight. And most important of all, the shutdown and specter of a second downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt looms large. The deadline to raise or suspend the debt ceiling is just weeks away.
Volatility in stocks remains high, bitcoin seems to be fading from interest, and for the first time in a long while gold shows signs of life. Naturally, the flattish yield curve, Brexit, and slowing global growth made the pundits warn of gloom and doom. Don’t tell Mr. Dow and Ms. Nazzie (or their Brazilian cousin Bovie).
This month, the theme here centers on jobs. No, not jobs in the general economy, but jobs for technicians. We surveyed a group of technicians who took the plunge and went out on their own. After all, the number of direct, salaried jobs on the Street has dwindled - we’ve also got an article about a TA veteran who made that very point and told us what he did about it. The bottom line is that technical analysis is a very valuable skill to have, and where there’s a will, there’s a way to use it to make a living.
Next, Dan Russo, CMT, offers his views on risk management, which is a very important topic for all of us.
Of course, we’ve got news from around the association with chapter reports, CMT information, this month’s interview with George Schade, CMT and a review of the Mike Epstein Award presentation to Dave Lundgren, CMT, CFA by Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT.
- Michael Kahn, CMT
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[post_content] => They say March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb. Well, 2018 came in like a lion and seems to have gone out like a lion, too. Check out this chart of the Dow’s daily true range going back to early 2016. Something is clearly different in 2018.
If there is one thing we can say about the markets, it’s that they're like a box of chocolates. Okay - Forrest Gump, CMT, might have said that.
As we reach our stride with the new newsletter format, we still need your feedback. What do you like? What would you like to see? Drop us a line at
editor@CMTAssociation.org. And we could still use some volunteers to help with book, software and seminar reviews.
This month’s member interview is with two-time former past President Bruce Kamich. We’ve got the third, and final, installment of the reboot of Mark Eidem, CMT, CFA’s series on “Lessons from Dead Pilots,” again, which gives a fascinating comparison with traders.
And I did an interview with David Aferiat with a look at how TradeIdeas sees artificial intelligence coming to money management and trading. Don’t worry, you won’t be replaced (at least not yet).
Of course, there is plenty of Association and chapter news, plus a review by Tyler Wood of the recent ETF Global Conference.
Hope your holidays were relaxing, and may your New Year be your best yet!
Michael Kahn, CMT
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From the Editor
Well, October certainly lived up to its spooky and quite volatile reputation. From leading momo tech stocks tanking to multiple multi-percentage point intraday moves everywhere else, I am sure antacid makers made a tidy profit. Of course, coffee, sugar and crude oil had their own action and did you see palladium’s all-time high?
This is my second edition of the new Technically Speaking and once again I must ask for volunteers to help us deliver a well-rounded offering with:
- seminar reviews
- book reviews
- software reviews
- articles on how you analyze, trade or “do” the technical analysis business
- suggestions for interviews with industry titans
- your own career move announcements.
Drop us a line at
editor@CMTAssociation.org. We welcome everyone, including newly minted members.
In this edition, we offer another of our member interviews with Phil Roth, CMT, a legend in the field and one of the most generous members with his time. And if I have not hit you over the head enough about getting involved, I’m re-running a piece I did a while ago called “Thoughts on Volunteering.”
We also have part 2 in a series that ran back in the 1990s called “Lessons from Dead Pilots,” written by Mark Eidem CMT, CFA, which gives a fascinating comparison with traders. And a report from Clint Sorenson, CMT, CFA on how an investment advisor incorporates technical analysis into an otherwise fundamentally-driven business.
Rounding it all out will be news from around the association – chapters, strategy, CMT news and events.
Michael Kahn, CMT
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From the Editor
As Randy Quaid’s character said as he was about to slay the alien ship in Independence Day, “Hello boys – I’m baaack!”
Hello boys and girls! After a 20-year hiatus, I am back at the helm of Technically Speaking. The good news is that unlike last time when it was just me, with the indomitable Barbara Gomperts handling production, we’ve got a full team handling the particulars, including gathering some of the content. Shout outs to Tyler Wood, Shane Skwarek, CMT Association CEO Alvin Kressler and the staff for all the help.
The biggest change you will notice is that we’ve taken Technically Speaking back to a more traditional association newsletter where we focus on you, the member, and how the CMT Association can help you in your careers. Kudos to Mike Carr, CMT for his stewardship over the past few years. That was a flashback for me, because the last time I was editor, I relied on Mike for all sorts of content. Maybe we can twist his arm again!
Aside from bringing you your association news, this inaugural newsletter is also a call to arms for members and associates. We need volunteers to help us deliver a well-rounded offering with:
- seminar reviews
- book reviews
- software reviews
- articles on how you analyze, trade or “do” the technical analysis business
- suggestions for interviews with industry titans
- your own career move announcements.
With that said, we’ll kick of the member interview series with the Godfather, Ralph Acampora, CMT, one of the founders of the CMT Association. We also have part 1 in a series that ran back in the 1990s called “Lessons from Dead Pilots,” written by Mark Eidem CMT, CFA, which gives a fascinating comparison with traders. And a big thank-you to Vincent M. Randazzo, CMT and the team at Lowry’s Research for their take on the advance-decline line.
Rounding it all out will be news from around the association – committees, strategy, CMT news and events.
Let us know what you think!
Michael Kahn, CMT
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From the Editor’s Desk
In recent issues I have repeatedly asked for input from the membership, and this month you see that the response has been very positive.
On the cover, we present a rather detailed piece by Joe Russo in which he analyzes several world markets. For many, the most interesting part of this article will be his comparison of arithmetic versus logarithmic scaling on charts. Joe raises several interesting points, and supports his ideas with examples. It’s exactly the kind of work that needs to be done in technical analysis. For reasons I have never understood, chart scaling can become an emotional topic among technicians. Joe simply presents facts with charts, the essence of technical analysis at it’s finest.
Kim Husebye, CFA, CMT, also combines facts and charts in a shorter piece, fully exploring the Kondratieff Wave, an interesting theory familiar to most technicians. Kim’s short analysis should lead to some tradable insights with only a little thought. After entering a trade based upon your interpretations of one of those articles, Matthew Caruso presents some thoughts on when to exit a trade. His work also combines well-written theory with charts illustrating his ideas.
Finally, from the membership, we received a book review from Scott Richter, CFA, CMT. There is also a lot happening within the MTA, and that is covered in this month’s newsletter. I hope that you’ll enjoying reading Technically Speaking, and we all hope that you will enjoy the upcoming holiday season.
Cordially,
Mike Carr, CMT
Editor
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Contributions
- Opening Session – The Presidential Suite -
The president and vice president of the CMT Association global board speak about their vision for Asia and how the association is working to elevate the discourse around technical analysis worldwide.
- India Virtual Chapter Meeting - August 2020 -
Akshay Chinchalkar, CMT
Vishal Mehta, CMT
Mumbai Chapter Chairs
PRESENTATIONS
Fireside Chat
Scott Richter, CMT
President of the Board, CMT Association
Career Opportunities for Technical Analysts in the Financial Services Industry
Jay Thakkar, CMT
VP and...
- Panel Discussion and Q&A -
The CMT Association invites you to join us on Wednesday, April 3rd in New York as we convene a panel of distinguished market-leading portfolio managers. Through a lively discussion on the application of technical analysis to the investment...
- Technically Speaking, March 2021
- Technically Speaking, February 2021
- Technically Speaking, January 2021
- Technically Speaking, December 2020
- Technically Speaking, October 2020
- Technically Speaking, September 2020
- Technically Speaking, August 2020
- Technically Speaking, July 2020
- Technically Speaking, June 2020
- Technically Speaking, May 2020
- Technically Speaking, April 2020
- Technically Speaking, March 2020
- Technically Speaking, February 2020
- Technically Speaking, January 2020
- Technically Speaking, December 2019
- Technically Speaking, October 2019
- Technically Speaking, September 2019
- Technically Speaking, July 2019
- Technically Speaking, April 2019
- Technically Speaking, March 2019
- Technically Speaking, February 2019
- Technically Speaking, December 2018 - January 2019
- Technically Speaking, November 2018
- Technically Speaking, September 2018
- Technically Speaking, December, 2006
