public

Technically Speaking, April, 2005

From the Editor’s Desk

In this issue, Jim Balchunas, CMT, provides an excellent example of technical analysis. He has applied classical techniques to develop actionable trading plans for long-term investors. This is an excellent example of the type of work we wish we could publish more of in Technically Speaking. Unfortunately, we rarely receive such insightful analysis to consider for publication. This is your newsletter, and its success is very much dependant upon the membership for content. Book reviews, software reviews and market analysis are always welcome. Many of you produce short pieces as part of your job – please consider submitting them for publication here after your clients have seen them. For those seeking employment in the field, being published here is valuable input on a resume. And for those with their own firms, being featured in a professional publication is something that might just impress a potential client. The focus of this newsletter is also on MTA business, and this month that business is largely the upcoming Education Seminar. As John Kosar points out in this issue, the seminar has long

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

What's Inside...

The Interest is Growing

by Jordan Kotick, CMT

Fresh on the heels of our successful decisions from the SROs, I have received a substantial increase in inquiries. The majority of the calls and emails have been regarding the CMT designation, its...

IFTA Update

by John R. Kirby

Over the last year your MTA has been working diligently to work out a solution with regard to the competition between the CMT and the DITA. Perhaps now is an appropriate time to let you know the...

Stock Indices - Different Challenges and a New OBV High

by James V. Balchunas, CMT

NASDAQ Composite The important story to us is volume on the NASDAQ and its pattern on the monthly chart compared to the index in 2004 as well as 2003. In 2003, as the index moved higher volume...

Member Profiles: Vice President John Kosar

John Kosar, CMT, is Vice President of the MTA and recently founded his own research firm, Asbury Research, LLC. John feels the purpose of the MTA is simply to create good jobs for its members in the...

Intermarket Analysis: The Fundamental Relationship Underlying Stocks and Interest Rates

The article below is extracted from “Inflation is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon” by Myles Zyblock, CFA – Chief Institutional Strategist & Director of Capital Markets Research...

The Interest is Growing

The Interest is Growing

Fresh on the heels of our successful decisions from the SROs, I have received a substantial increase in inquiries. The majority of the calls and emails have been regarding the CMT designation, its history and how one can enroll in the program. Further, at least 50% of the calls have been from Europe and a few from Asia. Despite the fact that we have not yet done any PR on our success, word is spreading. I can only interpret this as a very good thing for not only the CMT, but the MTA and technical analysis in general. Clearly, the trend towards accreditation, specifically, an accredited program that is also psycho-metrically valid (like the CMT), is growing both in acceptance and global scope. I will keep everyone in the loop going forward about further developments but I take this to be a very positive sign.

We also want to welcome Barry

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Back to top
IFTA Update

IFTA Update

Over the last year your MTA has been working diligently to work out a solution with regard to the competition between the CMT and the DITA. Perhaps now is an appropriate time to let you know the current status of those negotiations.

Initially IFTA had suggested that the MTA simply stop giving the CMT examinations outside the United States. IFTA suggested that henceforth only the DITA designation should be available outside the US.

The problem with that request was that CMT examinations have been given around the world for the last seventeen years. There are now CMT candidates in more than 50 countries around the world at some level of the program, there are currently ~2000 people in the program, and the MTA has judiciously protected the CMT trademark on a world wide basis. To simply abandon those candidates who are dues paying affiliates of the MTA would have been totally irresponsible.

Many

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Back to top
Stock Indices - Different Challenges and a New OBV High

Stock Indices - Different Challenges and a New OBV High

NASDAQ Composite

The important story to us is volume on the NASDAQ and its pattern on the monthly chart compared to the index in 2004 as well as 2003.

In 2003, as the index moved higher volume increased consistently. In October, November and December of 2004, as the index moved higher, volume again increased consistently.

Its On Balance Volume (OBV) on the chart hit an all time high in 2001. In 2004, it did not exceed that high but it was approaching it. In December the NASDAQ made a new high for 2004. Its OBV also made a new high for all of 2004 – an early indicator that higher moves could occur.

On the last trading day of 2004, the NASDAQ closed well above its 20-period moving average. Momentum as measured by RSI on the monthly chart is strong and there has been buying since

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

James V. Balchunas, CMT

Back to top
Member Profiles: Vice President John Kosar

Member Profiles: Vice President John Kosar

John Kosar, CMT, is Vice President of the MTA and recently founded his own research firm, Asbury Research, LLC. John feels the purpose of the MTA is simply to create good jobs for its members in the financial field.

Career

John Kosar is President of Asbury Research and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT). He provides more than two decades of insight and experience in covering the major financial markets. John spent the first 15 years of his career on the trading floors of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. This provided him an opportunity to learn how the financial markets work from the inside out, and became the foundation for his unique perspective on them.

Mr. Kosar has been quoted throughout his career in most major U.S. financial publications including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and Investors Business Daily. He has also frequently appeared on local and national financial television,

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Back to top
Intermarket Analysis: The Fundamental Relationship Underlying Stocks and Interest Rates

Intermarket Analysis: The Fundamental Relationship Underlying Stocks and Interest Rates

The article below is extracted from “Inflation is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon” by Myles Zyblock, CFA – Chief Institutional Strategist & Director of Capital Markets Research at the Royal Bank of Canada. It is reproduced as reprinted in the February 7, 2005 issue of “John Mauldin’s Outside the Box” Additional information may be obtained by emailing JohnMauldin@InvestorsInsight.com

The title of this week’s report is based on a famous quote by the Nobel Prize winning monetary economist Milton Friedman. His view, anchored in the quantity theory of money, is that excessive money creation spawns inflation. Our research suggests that there is value in adopting a monetary framework to assess the long-term inflation outlook. We have examined data from a cross-section of countries, as well as nearly a century of US data, to find that inflation usually accelerates when money supply growth exceeds the growth rate in the economy for an

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Back to top

New Educational Content This Month

Back to top