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Technically Speaking, April 2016

 

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

This month we provide a small sample of work from a few of the speakers who will be presenting their research at the Annual Symposium. In the next few issues we will be providing summaries of some of these presentations in Technically Speaking. As there are every year, this year’s presentations will include a number of new ideas for your consideration and at least a few of the ideas could add to your profits in the coming year.

This issues also includes a summary of the material presented at the inaugural meeting of the Philippines Chapter of the MTA. Regional chapter meetings are a way to learn more about technical analysis and more importantly to meet other analysts. If you haven’t been to a chapter meeting, check for local events by clicking here.

The Symposium, Chapter meetings and this magazine are all benefits of membership. The MTA is focused on providing information to you, the members, through a variety of means. To help us personalize the experience, please let us know what you’d like to see in Technically Speaking this year by emailing us at editor@mta.org.

Sincerely,

Michael Carr

What's Inside...

OPTIMAL MOMENTUM

by Gary Antonacci

Editor’s note: this was originally posted at OptimalMomentum.com and is reprinted here to introduce readers to the philosophy of Gary Antonacci who will be a presenter at the MTA’s Annual...

MY INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY

by David Cox, CFA, CMT, FCSI, FMA, BMath

Editor’s note: David will be a presenter at the MTA Annual Symposium. This article is from his web site and is reprinted here to familiarize readers with topics he will address in his...

PERFORMANCE BOOSTING: ENHANCING THE PROFITABILITY OF QUANTITATIVE INVESTING STRATEGIES

 Editor’s note: this was originally posted at HoodRiverResearch.com and is reprinted here to introduce readers to the philosophy of David Aronson who will be a presenter at the MTA’s Annual...

RIP: IAN M.T. MCAVITY, CMT, CEO, ANALYST, RACONTEUR AND FRIEND TO MANY

“God must’ve needed a technical analyst to figure out what’s going on in the world.” – Larry Williams, a friend of Ian’s on learning of his passing on March 16, 2016. Larry...

MTA PHILIPPINES INAUGURAL MEETING

MTA PHILIPPINES INAUGURAL MEETING

Sixty-six attendees benefitted from the wisdom of a select group of speakers at the first meeting of the Philippines Chapter of the MTA on March 15, 2016. The audience consisted of local analysts,...

OF TOMATOES AND THE SPREAD OF IDEAS

by Lawrence L. Gonzaga, CMT

During a trip to the wet market in Quanzhou, Southern China, I was startled as a vendor shouted, ‘Kamati, Kamati!’ I did not expect to hear Filipino words in a Chinese market. I turned around and...

HOW MEMBERS USE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: LOUIS LLANES, CFA, CMT

by Louis Llanes, CMT, CFA

Editor’s note: Investment managers are increasingly turning to technical analysis as a risk management tool. This article details how one manager is helping his clients with this discipline. Louis...

HOW MEMBERS USE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ADAM BRUNIN, AIF

by Adam Brunin

Adam Brunin, AIF, is an investment manager with his own firm, Navigation Wealth Management, a predominantly fee-based practice. The firm offers comprehensive financial planning services and...

THE GORDON GEKKO EFFECT: THE ROLE OF CULTURE IN THE FINANCIAL INDUSTRY

by Andrew W. Lo, PhD

Editor’s note: Dr. Lo, developer of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH), prepared this paper for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Financial Advisory Roundtable (FAR) meeting, October 17,...

ETHICS CORNER: DOES YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISER 'SPECIALIZE IN MISCONDUCT'?

by Natasha Gural-Maiello

Editor’s note: This is adapted from a February 29, 2016 blog post at the University of Chicago blog, Capital Ideas. It is based on a research paper: Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos, and Amit Seru, “The...

CHART OF THE MONTH

This month we are taking a long-term look at markets through Ichimoku clouds. These charts consist of five components: Turning Line – midpoint of the high and low of the last 9 sessions. Standard...

OPTIMAL MOMENTUM

OPTIMAL MOMENTUM

Editor’s note: this was originally posted at OptimalMomentum.com and is reprinted here to introduce readers to the philosophy of Gary Antonacci who will be a presenter at the MTA’s Annual Symposium. Momentum is based on the Newtonian notion that a body in motion tends to stay in motion. The classical economist David Ricardo translated momentum into investment terms with the oft quoted phrase, “Cut your losses; let your profits run on.” By following his own advice, Ricardo retired at the age of 42 having amassed a fortune of 65 million in today’s dollars.   Momentum style investing was alive and well during the 1920s and 1930s. Momentum dominates much of the famous 1923 book, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, about the legendary trader Jesse Livermore. Momentum- based relative velocity ratings were used in the 1920’s by HM Gartley and published in 1932 by Robert Rhea. George Seaman and Richard Wycoff wrote books

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Gary Antonacci - 2022

Gary Antonacci

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MY INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY

MY INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY

Editor’s note: David will be a presenter at the MTA Annual Symposium. This article is from his web site and is reprinted here to familiarize readers with topics he will address in his presentation. Minimizing Risk While Maximizing Return Any investment philosophy must be founded on a set of beliefs. Some investors believe in value investing, others in growth investing… some investors believe in buy and hold, others position trade, swing trade, trend trade, day trade and/or some combination thereof. Being a bit of a math geek (Bachelor of Mathematics from the University of Waterloo) and one of approximately 206 dual holders, globally, of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designations, I believe I get some say. Like most aspiring investment analysts, I started from fundamentally-driven routes in pursuit of the CFA designation while working in the quantitative research department for an institutional investment manager. Since those early days,

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

David Cox

David Cox, CFA, CMT, FCSI, FMA, BMath

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PERFORMANCE BOOSTING: ENHANCING THE PROFITABILITY OF QUANTITATIVE INVESTING STRATEGIES

PERFORMANCE BOOSTING: ENHANCING THE PROFITABILITY OF QUANTITATIVE INVESTING STRATEGIES

 Editor’s note: this was originally posted at HoodRiverResearch.com and is reprinted here to introduce readers to the philosophy of David Aronson who will be a presenter at the MTA’s Annual Symposium. There is a need for quantitative strategies to differentiate themselves from competitors and to maximize returns. There are two approaches to doing this: Improving execution algorithms to minimize the price impact of strategy buy and sell orders, or Increasing the returns that can be earned from the strategy’s buy and sell signals. Hood River Research (HRR) favors taking the second approach. The return of your strategy is increased by predicting which signals are likely to be the most and least profitable, thereby allowing you to take larger positions on signals with the highest expectations and smaller positions on those with the lowest expected returns. The predictions are based on indicators that quantify the trading dynamics of a security at the time your strategy

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

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RIP: IAN M.T. MCAVITY, CMT, CEO, ANALYST, RACONTEUR AND FRIEND TO MANY

RIP: IAN M.T. MCAVITY, CMT, CEO, ANALYST, RACONTEUR AND FRIEND TO MANY

“God must’ve needed a technical analyst to figure out what’s going on in the world.” – Larry Williams, a friend of Ian’s on learning of his passing on March 16, 2016. Larry also noted, “To his credit Ian lived life to its fullest as an advisor, as a CEO, as a drinking buddy and traveler of the roads together. Ian was always there alert having fun, making people around him enjoy just being there. He will be missed in board rooms, a few bars, squash courts and the skiing slopes in Colorado.” It’s impossible to describe Ian’s life in a few words although Larry comes close. Ian’s was a life well-lived as John Carder, CMT, President of Topline Investment Graphics, has written: Ian McAvity — Editor of DELIBERATIONS I first started reading Ian McAvity’s newsletter, DELIBERATIONS on World Markets, in the late 1970s. I think I saw one of his marvelous, hand-drawn charts in Richard

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

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MTA PHILIPPINES INAUGURAL MEETING
MTA PHILIPPINES INAUGURAL MEETING

MTA PHILIPPINES INAUGURAL MEETING

Sixty-six attendees benefitted from the wisdom of a select group of speakers at the first meeting of the Philippines Chapter of the MTA on March 15, 2016. The audience consisted of local analysts, fund managers, institutional and retail traders that generally focus on Philippines stock market, including Edward Lee of COL Financial Group, the largest brokerage in the Philippines. Speakers included: James Brodie, CMT, of the Singapore-based fund manager Sherpa Funds, provided an introduction to MTA and CMT certification. Lawrence Gonzaga, CMT, publisher of the Abacus Supertimer, the technical research product of Abacus Securities Corp., introduced indicators applicable to Philippines stock market. Those tools are highlighted in the next article of this issue. Alex Siew presented new research on advanced indicators to track the flow of funds. Nikki Yu of Wealth Securities provided insights into her experience of her boss, Wilson Sy, who has been called the “Warren Buffet of the Philippines.” Wealth Securities and Philequity

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

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OF TOMATOES AND THE SPREAD OF IDEAS

OF TOMATOES AND THE SPREAD OF IDEAS

During a trip to the wet market in Quanzhou, Southern China, I was startled as a vendor shouted, ‘Kamati, Kamati!’ I did not expect to hear Filipino words in a Chinese market. I turned around and saw heaps of shiny red tomatoes being offered for sale. In Manila, we call tomatoes ‘kamatis’ (with an s). The locals believe that the earliest tomatoes in Southern China came from the Acapulco – Manila – Quanzhou trade route hundreds of years ago. I share this story because I believe that society benefits from an exchange of goods and ideas. The introduction of the alphabet and arithmetic come to mind. The compass, electricity, computer, internet, to name a few, brought immense progress to mankind. In the field of technical analysis, newer indicators are available to complement the traditional tools in our toolbox. I am not the creator of these new indicators. I consider myself an ardent

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Lawrence L. Gonzaga, CMT - 2022

Lawrence L. Gonzaga, CMT

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HOW MEMBERS USE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: LOUIS LLANES, CFA, CMT

HOW MEMBERS USE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: LOUIS LLANES, CFA, CMT

Editor’s note: Investment managers are increasingly turning to technical analysis as a risk management tool. This article details how one manager is helping his clients with this discipline. Louis Llanes, CFA, CMT, is the founder of MacroTrend Strategies, LLC, an investment management firm managing assets for successful individual private clients. In 1997 Louis founded Blythe Lane Investment Management and later merged the firm with Centric Investment Group. He also served as a Senior Portfolio Manager for the US Bank Private Client Reserve, and an Investment Consultant for Kemper Securities. Early in his career he worked as a Financial Analyst for Intellogic Trace, a spin-off of DataPoint and a Quantitative Analyst. Louis holds both the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designations. He earned an MBA at the University of Denver and a B.S. in Finance from the University of Colorado in Denver. Louis is the author of “Financial Freedom Blueprint” and a contributing author in “The Handbook of Risk”

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Louis Llanes, CMT, CFA - 2022

Louis Llanes, CMT, CFA

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HOW MEMBERS USE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ADAM BRUNIN, AIF

HOW MEMBERS USE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ADAM BRUNIN, AIF

Adam Brunin, AIF, is an investment manager with his own firm, Navigation Wealth Management, a predominantly fee-based practice. The firm offers comprehensive financial planning services and could be considered a traditional wealth management firm in some ways. In other ways, it is a unique financial services firm. One way Navigation Wealth Management stands out is by providing detailed information about options related to Social Security benefits. Experience in trusts, reverse mortgages and other complex topics is also available through the firm or through a pre-screened referral network. As noted on the firm’s web site, “Giving the client the control over their financial decisions, Navigation Wealth Management’s goal is finding the solution to the client’s needs instead of trying to sell a product, that is what builds long term relationships between us and the client.” Like many professionals in the field, Adam has found potential clients who complain, “I have this other person

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

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THE GORDON GEKKO EFFECT: THE ROLE OF CULTURE IN THE FINANCIAL INDUSTRY

THE GORDON GEKKO EFFECT: THE ROLE OF CULTURE IN THE FINANCIAL INDUSTRY

Editor’s note: Dr. Lo, developer of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH), prepared this paper for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Financial Advisory Roundtable (FAR) meeting, October 17, 2014. The complete text is available at his web site. Below is an extract of the paper to highlight current issues in the market that technical analysts should be aware of. Abstract: Culture is a potent force in shaping individual and group behavior, yet it has received scant attention in the context of financial risk management and the recent financial crisis. I present a brief overview of the role of culture according to psychologists, sociologists, and economists, and then present a specific framework for analyzing culture in the context of financial practices and institutions in which three questions are addressed: (1) What is culture?; (2) Does it matter?; and (3) Can it be changed? I illustrate the utility of this framework by

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Andrew W. Lo, PhD - 2022

Andrew W. Lo, PhD

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ETHICS CORNER: DOES  YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISER 'SPECIALIZE IN MISCONDUCT'?

ETHICS CORNER: DOES YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISER 'SPECIALIZE IN MISCONDUCT'?

Editor’s note: This is adapted from a February 29, 2016 blog post at the University of Chicago blog, Capital Ideas. It is based on a research paper: Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos, and Amit Seru, “The Market for Financial Adviser Misconduct,” Working paper, February 2016. Financial advisers are often perceived as dishonest, and consistently rank among the least trustworthy professionals. New research suggests this public perception may be deserved. In the first large-scale study documenting the economy-wide extent of misconduct among financial advisers and financial advisory firms in the United States, researchers find that most financial advisers who engage in misconduct get to keep their jobs—or are quickly rehired by another firm in the industry. Some of the largest financial advisory firms in the US have the highest rates of misconduct, according to University of Minnesota’s Mark Egan and Chicago Booth’s Gregor Matvos and Amit Seru. At one large firm, 20% of advisers have been disciplined for

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

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CHART OF THE MONTH

CHART OF THE MONTH

This month we are taking a long-term look at markets through Ichimoku clouds. These charts consist of five components: Turning Line – midpoint of the high and low of the last 9 sessions. Standard Line – midpoint of the high and low of the last 26 sessions. Cloud Span A – midpoint of turning line and standard line shifted forward 26 bars forward. Cloud Span B – midpoint of the high and low of last 52 sessions shifted 26 bars forward. The Lagging Line – the price line (close) shifted back 26 bars. For simplicity, just the cloud spans are shown below. Although more detailed analysis is possible, they can be interpreted simply with the following guidelines: Prices above the cloud are bullish. Prices below the cloud are bearish. Prices in the cloud are bullish if they came from the bullish zone. Prices in the cloud are bearish if they came from the bearish zone. Historically thick clouds after a run

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

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New Educational Content This Month

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