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Technically Speaking, April 2019

Thanks to the constraints of newsletter publishing and the lack of time travel resources available, this edition of Technically Speaking was put to bed before the festivities of the 46th Annual Symposium, earlier this month. While we could not magically forecast what the speakers would say, rest assured we will have plenty of information and reviews in the next edition. If you haven't taken the post-Symposium survey yet, you can do that here. The funny thing about time is that this time is never different. While we usually apply that to analysis and the behavior of crowds, we are still applying it to the news of the day. Brexit was supposed to happen March 29, but it was delayed and still they argue over what it will look like. Trade with China is still up in the air. The Mueller report is finally out, and while we don’t know all the details inside, everyone still clings to their previous views. What else is not different? Headlines! The three-month Treasury yield ticked above the 10-year yield and suddenly the media was in

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

What's Inside...

President's Letter: Making it to Your “Final Four” – Be A Complete Trader/Investor with a Robust Skill Set

by Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

As I watch the NCAA March Madness Basketball Tournament, I’m struck by the composition of the Final Four teams.  They are solid TEAMS! They are not just teams where ONE superstar is carrying...

Powerful Short Duration Expansions in Lowry’s Short-Term Index

by Vincent M. Randazzo, CMT

Lowry’s Short-Term Index is our proprietary short-term measure of investors’ demand for equities. Typically this indicator oscillates between 60 and the low 90s. While readings of 60 or below are...

46th Annual Symposium Honorees

by Michael Kahn, CMT

We would like to acknowledge once again the award winners at this this year’s gathering: Charles H. Dow Award to Christopher Diodato, CMT, CFA, for his paper Making the Most of Panic – Exploring...

Copyright Basics, Part 1

by Joyce L. Miller & Dr. C. Daniel Miller

Both in my writing projects and with the Educational Foundation’s Library, I have come across the importance of knowing about copyrights. We are still learning about copyrights in electronic...

Member Interview: Richard Dickson

by Richard A. Dickson

What do you do professionally? I am currently head analyst at Lowry Research, the oldest continually operating technical research company in the U.S. How did you get there? After serving in the U.S....

How to be a Good Interviewee

by Michael Kahn, CMT

This is the second part of a loose series on how to write for and deal with the media. It was adapted from its previous appearance in Technically Speaking many years ago. As technical analysts...

Mumbai Chapter Update: Sports in Technical Analysis

by Joel Pannikot

Some of our most enduring relationships too are built on the sports field, and some of our fondest memories are from our times at play. This is what inspired the Mumbai Chapter of the CMT Association...

Minnesota Chapter Meeting Recap

by Kyle Lottman, CFA

Twenty technicians met at the Rock Bottom Restaurant and Brewery to hear Kenneth Tower, CMT, from Quantitative Analysis Service, Inc. speak on March 19, 2019. The title for the presentation was...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:  John Parmigiani, CMT, Small Firm Representative on the National Adjudicatory...

President's Letter: Making it to Your “Final Four” – Be A Complete Trader/Investor with a Robust Skill Set

President's Letter: Making it to Your “Final Four” – Be A Complete Trader/Investor with a Robust Skill Set

As I watch the NCAA March Madness Basketball Tournament, I’m struck by the composition of the Final Four teams.  They are solid TEAMS!

They are not just teams where ONE superstar is carrying everyone else. That only goes so far.

Teams are so ultra-competitive today – even if a team has a dominating player (i.e., Zion Williamson for Duke) – they can still lose the championship with their superstar! So, goodbye to Duke, goodbye to Gonzaga, goodbye to Carolina and all the other teams with superstar players. Robust teams are winning; robust teams win championships.

What does that have to do with me, you ask? You’re off topic. Well, no, not if you think about it more deeply.

Like the NCAA Basketball Championship, we find ourselves in a very competitive “financial markets” environment. There’s a lot of pressure to perform and meet mandates for institutions, high net worth investors and clients. The bar is

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

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Powerful Short Duration Expansions in Lowry’s Short-Term Index

Powerful Short Duration Expansions in Lowry’s Short-Term Index

Lowry’s Short-Term Index is our proprietary short-term measure of investors’ demand for equities. Typically this indicator oscillates between 60 and the low 90s. While readings of 60 or below are historically considered oversold, the gauge is unbounded to the upside, but has reached above 110 only on rare occasions. The recent explosion in our Short-Term index – from 59 on December 24th, 2018 to 103 on January 18th, 2019 – along with the 13.6% gain in the S&P 500 Index over the same timeframe, has led many to question what this means for the sustainability of the current market rally.

In order to gain the historical perspective necessary to address this concern, we examined market data from 1940 to present. Specifically, we cited comparable instances of robust short-duration expansions in the Short-Term Index and then recorded the S&P 500 Index’s condition 1 month, 3 months, 1 year, and 2 years after

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Vincent M. Randazzo, CMT

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46th Annual Symposium Honorees

46th Annual Symposium Honorees

We would like to acknowledge once again the award winners at this this year’s gathering:

Charles H. Dow Award to Christopher Diodato, CMT, CFA, for his paper Making the Most of Panic – Exploring the Value Of Combining Price & Supply/Demand Indicators.  The paper has been recognized for its holistic approach to combining indicators and time frames to identify periods of market panic.

Service Award to Mark Cremonie, CMT, CFA, for selfless service to the CMT Program Curriculum and Test Committee. As a colleague and mentor, he has been instrumental in propelling the CMT Program forward.

Memorial Award to Paul Desmond in honor of his long service to the profession of technical analysis in general and to the CMT Association in particular.  As CMT Association President, he guided the Association through its transition to a more business-like organization.  As head of Lowry’s Research, he continued and expanded one of the most respected and

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

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Copyright Basics, Part 1

Copyright Basics, Part 1

Both in my writing projects and with the Educational Foundation’s Library, I have come across the importance of knowing about copyrights. We are still learning about copyrights in electronic media and books donated to the foundation.

What came as the biggest surprise was seeing books with no footnotes, no citations, and no acknowledgments of works borrowed from others. I have also been surprised at the licensing fees charged by publishers. And some self-publishing presses will not accept the “fair use” doctrine and have expressed concern about infringing copyrights.

This is an important topic for all members who publish anything for any audience. That is why I asked a copyright consultant to consider writing the short article that follows.

– George Schade, CMT 

As professionals in today’s world, we may face instances daily where a basic knowledge of copyright law would serve us well.  We may be

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Joyce L. Miller

Dr. C. Daniel Miller

Dr. C. Daniel Miller

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Member Interview: Richard Dickson

Member Interview: Richard Dickson

What do you do professionally?

I am currently head analyst at Lowry Research, the oldest continually operating technical research company in the U.S.

How did you get there?

After serving in the U.S. Air Force and a few years in graduate school, I started working as a broker in 1979 with Thomson McKinnon Securities in Richmond, Va. During my first year I decided to begin working toward the CFA designation.  Using the S&P Stock Guide, I started looking for stocks that met the fundamental criteria for value. I went through the resulting list of stocks looking for the one that appeared to offer the best value, which I then bought – and proceeded to watch it go down.  I figured I must have done something wrong so went back to drawing board and picked another stock – and watched it go down. 

At that point, I went to one of the top producing brokers

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Richard A. Dickson

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How to be a Good Interviewee

How to be a Good Interviewee

This is the second part of a loose series on how to write for and deal with the media. It was adapted from its previous appearance in Technically Speaking many years ago.

As technical analysts watching financial business news on television, we might expect to find in-depth analysis presented on the air.  After all, when we tune into a program that consists of ingredients such as expert speakers, market forecasts and investment analysis, why shouldn’t we expect a session educating us about the technical complexities of the stock market? 

The problem is that we are not the only ones watching the program and the producers of CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg and others must satisfy a wide range of viewers. It is therefore important to remember that the audience is not limited to professional technicians and the main objective for broadcast is to attract and inform the widest possible audience.

Just what are some

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

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Mumbai Chapter Update: Sports in Technical Analysis

Mumbai Chapter Update: Sports in Technical Analysis

Some of our most enduring relationships too are built on the sports field, and some of our fondest memories are from our times at play. This is what inspired the Mumbai Chapter of the CMT Association to adopt “Sports” as a theme for the first quarter of 2019. The chapter organized two initiatives.

The February Chapter Meeting: Sports in Technical Analysis
The Relevance: The brand value of the 10-year old Indian Premier League has now touched $5.3 billion, making it the largest cricket league in the world. This growth has also led to private sports leagues in Soccer, Hockey, Badminton and other sports. These leagues represent opportunities for not only developing sporting talent, but also investment in India.
The Event: The chapter hosted its event at the St Andrew’s Turf Park, Bandra, Mumbai, a popular venue for soccer and cricket enthusiasts. Vishal Mehta, CMT, Co-chair of the India chapter the speakers

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Joel Pannikot

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Minnesota Chapter Meeting Recap

Minnesota Chapter Meeting Recap

Twenty technicians met at the Rock Bottom Restaurant and Brewery to hear Kenneth Tower, CMT, from Quantitative Analysis Service, Inc. speak on March 19, 2019. The title for the presentation was Reminiscences of a Technical Analyst.

This is just a quick bullet point summary of the presentation.

Ken’s preferred method of analysis incorporates: 

  • Weekly price charts with a 40-week moving average and 52-week moving average to determine trend
  • Trend of market is determined on a 5-point scoring system
    • +1 if 40-week > 52-week moving average
    • +1 if price is above 40-week moving average
    • -1 if 40-week < 52-week moving average etc.
  • Employs Williams %R as an oscillator

Ken was then asked, “How receptive have asset managers been regarding technical analysis and how should it be presented by a chartist?”

  • When meeting with managers he prefers to set charts aside and begin with his thesis and factors used in reaching that thesis. Focus should be on the takeaways because presenting a

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Kyle Lottman, CFA

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Membership News

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: 

  • John Parmigiani, CMT, Small Firm Representative on the National Adjudicatory Council at FINRA
  • Benny Ng, CPA, CA, CMT, Senior Manager at KDB Bank
  • David Keller, CMT, Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com, Inc.
  • CA Mukesh Baheti, SME at HSBC Securities Services

CMT News

On the day of your exam, plan to arrive 30 minutes before the scheduled appointment to allow for check-in procedures. Take along a copy of the confirmation of your scheduled exam from the Prometric website as it contains date, time and address of the test center; you will also need a valid form of ID.  Acceptable forms of primary identification include a valid passport, driver’s license (with signature), employee ID card (with photograph) and state ID card. 

Candidates from Egypt, Vietnam and India and those taking the exam outside their country of citizenship, must present a valid passport.

If you

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

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New Educational Content This Month

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