Technically Speaking, April 2020

Happy Equinox, shut ins. Yes, as the seasons change, all over the globe we are staying inside and away from each other. Does that affect your mental state? You bet it does. And does it affect your market analysis and trading? Probably, but maybe not as much as it might have done a few bear markets ago when technology was still finding its way.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) situation is quite fluid so I won’t comment. However, as markets try to find their footing and our day-to-day lives are different, we’re here to provide resources for you to make the best of it. Most importantly, we can tell you that the CMT Association is still up and running, having planned for an emergency situation months and years ago. Remember, back in 2001 our headquarters were in Tower 1 of the World Trade Center, so we know a few things about preparation and resilience.

This issue of Technically Speaking will feature an article by Rob Hanna about how he operates using quantitative analysis alongside technical indicators. Our member interview is with Patrick Hennessey, a trader who has a story many members likely mirror.

Everything else touches on resources available to members, even as the office downtown is closed. Association CEO Alvin Kressler offers a few words letting us know that we are alright and will come out of this just fine. And finally, I offer up a few words about my own situation working at home, which perhaps is what so many of us are now doing. Personally, I find it a step up.

That’s all. Be safe, stay home, wash your hands and stay connected by voice or digital. Think of all this as a story you can tell your grandchildren and don’t forget to laugh about toilet paper hoarders.

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor

What's Inside...

President’s Letter

Dear Members, Associates, Partners and Friends,

As you know, we are in a very volatile time.  Not only in the...

Read More

Executive Director's Update

COVID-19 has clearly impacted our live event offerings in the near-term, as we have canceled all live chapter meetings through...

Read More

Notice of Annual Meeting

The Annual Meeting of the CMT Association, Inc. membership is scheduled to take place on Wednesday, 10 June 2020. Online...

Read More

Trading Under Lockdown

I first posed the question on Twitter in some of the email chat rooms I frequent to find out how...

Read More

Chart Summit 2020 Resources

While you are stuck at home, here are some presentations to keep your TA mind sharp.

On Saturday, March 28th,...

Read More

Thinking Like a Quant

The core part of the analysis I do at Quantifiable Edges is based on studies of market action or historical...

Read More

Baruch College Becomes the Home of an Important Research Collection in Technical Analysis

This announcement was dated December 2, 2019 but is relevant given our focus this month on resources for members.

The...

Read More

Member Interview

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I am the head trader for IPS Strategic Capital – an independent registered...

Read More

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

  • Durgesh...
Read More

President’s Letter

Dear Members, Associates, Partners and Friends,

As you know, we are in a very volatile time.  Not only in the markets, but in our lives.  I wanted to take just a few moments to share my thoughts about our association and about sticking to our mission.

First We are committed to making it to the other side of COVID-19 and stewarding member resources in a prudent and cautious manner.

In a short amount of time, we’ve been through a lot of change.  We’ve had to postpone our 47th Annual Symposium and we have bumped our mid-year exam cycle to December due to COVID-19.

We are taking the threat very seriously and adjusting our short-term focus to be prudent and conservative financially.  We are taking the actions necessary to stay relevant to members, to be mindful of staff, and to be cooperative with our partners.  Staff and committees have done an amazing job at pivoting thoughtfully in this challenging environment and minimizing negative outcomes to the association.  The CMT Association Board of Directors, Executive Committee, and Staff are meeting frequently during this time to assess the external environment and respond meaningfully while keeping the interests of all in mind.

With that said, we have not lost focus on executing our longer-term growth strategy, although it is likely to be delayed temporarily due to the virus.  As a reminder, we remain committed to increasing the quality and attractiveness to employers of the CMT Program, international membership growth (especially in India and across the Asia Pacific Region), increasing international Board representation globally, moving towards better content delivery, and relevant and timely member communications.

Should you have ideas and suggestions that you believe would be helpful for the organization during this time,  please email me at scottrichter@westfieldgrp.com. I would love to hear from our membership and our friends.

Second The CMT Association retains a sharp focus on our Mission. In times of great change and stress, it’s often helpful to think about what is timeless and universal about our association. That would be our Mission. It’s also helpful that our Mission Statement has been reviewed and affirmed in more “normal” times.  Our mission defines who we are. In the midst of chaos, it’s a very good thing to know who you are and what you stand for.

Our mission is and continues to be gathering TA professionals, building the body of knowledge, encouraging the highest standards of competence and ethics, and educating others about the value and universality of technical analysis.

Not a thing here has changed due to COVID-19.  We continue to believe in our stated mission.  We will continue to deliver on our mission.  What may change is the way we are compelled to deliver on our mission in the post-COVID-19 world.  We are already looking into this through the ongoing work of our Long-Range Planning Committee.  We will keep you posted on progress as we move through that effort.

Third Living our Mission through the pandemic: what it means for you. In the past I’ve suggested that to fully live our mission, we need to educate, connect, motivate and inspire our members and constituents.   So let’s embrace these items going forward to come out stronger than before:

The CMT Association Staff has ramped up our efforts for digital programming while our global network of Chapters are unable to host live events. Our objective over the past month has been to provide on-demand webinars and release digital content to members on a more frequent basis with subjects that are timely, relevant, and non-commercial. The association will continue to expand opportunities for digital learning.  With many isolating at home, we’re dedicating resources to provide more opportunity to learn and build skills. Here are four tools you can access right now:

  1. You can view video archives of some of the greatest minds in our community here: https://cmtassociation.org/development/video-archives/
  2. Read the latest issue of our Journal of Technical Analysis and the 2020 Dow Award Winning paper here: https://cmtassociation.org/development/journal-technical-analysis/
  3. Join our webinar series LIVE online each Wednesday at 8am ET. Register here for free: https://cmtassociation.org/development/webcasts/
  4. We’ve curated podcasts from members and friends of the CMT Association and there are all in one place for you to enjoy: https://cmtassociation.org/development/podcasts/

Be on the lookout for emails and social media announcements of coming events.

Connect – I would encourage you to join in on the increased content distribution mentioned above, but also get active and reach out/connect with others.  Get on the phone, get on WhatsApp, get on Facetime, get on Twitter (https://twitter.com/cmtassociation), get on Stocktwits, get on Instagram and reach out to your friends and mentors in the technical analysis community.   Ask how they are.  Ask what they’re thinking.  Ask what they’re trading.  Ask if you can share ideas.  Form a trading/new ideas group.  Band together!  The lesson here is to make those connections you have been too busy to make prior to COVID-19.  You’ll be glad you did.  And while you are at it, make sure your profile is current in the CMT Association Member Directory https://cmtassociation.org/my-cmt/member-directory/.

Motivate and Inspire – Along with connecting, ask if there is a way to motivate and inspire yourself in this situation.  What can I learn?  Where are opportunities?  Where or how can I build my skills?  Or, ask if there is a way for you to motivate/inspire others.  Is there a way to teach or mentor others?  Can you be a CMT Sponsor for others?  How can you do good that will multiply to others once you commit?  Find the answer there then act!

In closing, we’ve been through a lot, and it’s not over.  That said, we are capable, agile, and we will persevere.  The CMT Association and Board remain committed to our members and our mission.  In this time, we encourage all to learn, connect, and improve.  Lastly, be well (as best you can), help yourself, and above all, help others.

 

Contributor(s)

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Scott Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which manages over $4B in AUM.  He is the lead portfolio manager for alternative assets and is also responsible for investments in the energy and utility sectors.  He was formerly...

Executive Director's Update

COVID-19 has clearly impacted our live event offerings in the near-term, as we have canceled all live chapter meetings through the end of May, postponed the Annual Symposium and just announced postponing the June CMT exams to December.   However, we are stepping up virtual meetings and programs to continue to deliver to you a wide variety of programs.  We are planning to bring you more programming as we gain more traction with our virtual platforms.  We expect to relaunch live, in-person programming in the late summer and into the fall.

We are looking at more capabilities in virtual programming, as well as other services that may be of benefit to members.  To that end, we encourage you to share with us your ideas around services and programming that you would find beneficial. Please contact us at admin@cmtassociation.org.

In the meantime, take a look at some of the resources we already have on the website:

Webcasts – https://cmtassociation.org/development/webcasts/

Newsletter archive – https://cmtassociation.org/development/technically-speaking/

And the premier source for technical analysis learning and history, the Technical Analysis Educational Foundation Library, now housed at Baruch College: https://cmtassociation.org/development/learning-resources/.  Read the Library’s official announcement by Dean Arthur Downing, Ph.D. later in this edition of Technically Speaking.

Just because we are physically separated does not mean your association is standing still. We were set up for staff to work at home long before this pandemic came about and we have not missed a step.

Stay safe, take advantage of online resources and we’ll see you when all of this is over.

Contributor(s)

Alvin Kressler

Alvin Kressler is Executive Director & CEO of the CMT Association. Alvin was previously Director of Research and Corporate Access at Bloomberg Tradebook.  Before joining Bloomberg, he was the Executive Director of The New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA). At over...

Notice of Annual Meeting

The Annual Meeting of the CMT Association, Inc. membership is scheduled to take place on Wednesday, 10 June 2020. Online proxy voting for the annual meeting will open on May 8, 2020 and run through June 8, 2020. You will receive an email invitation with detailed instructions for voting on May 8, 2020.

The 2020 Annual Membership meeting will be conducted entirely on-line; the link to register is included below. The Annual Meeting is open to all Members of the CMT Association, you are invited to attend via online webcast, details below.

Please register for the 2020 CMT Association Annual Membership Meeting to be held electronically on June 10, 2020, at 8:30 AM EDT using this link: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3098092120409790219.

Please contact Marie Penza, CMT Association Member Services Director, at 646-695-3008, or by email at marie@cmtassociation.org with questions.

Agenda

  • Order of Business
  • Approval of the Minutes of the June 11, 2019 Annual Meeting
  • Reports by the CMT Association
    • Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP, President
    • Alvin Kressler, Executive Director & CEO
  • Election of CMT Association Directors for fiscal year starting July 1, 2020 (three years)
    • Brett Villaume, CAIA, CMT
    • James Brodie, CMT
    • Glen Martin, CMT, CFA
  • Election of CMT Association Officers for fiscal year starting July 1, 2020 (one year)
    • President: Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP
    • Vice-President: Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA
    • Secretary: Robert Palladino, CMT
  • New Business
  • Adjournment

Please contact Marie Penza, CMT Association Member Services Director, at 646-695-3008, or by email at marie@cmtassociation.org with questions.

Contributor(s)

Robert Palladino, CMT

Robert Palladino, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a senior foreign exchange trader for JPMorgan Chase with experience trading foreign exchange, commodities, and interest rate products, including derivatives. His foreign exchange career has allowed him to work in Hong...

Trading Under Lockdown

I first posed the question on Twitter in some of the email chat rooms I frequent to find out how everyone was coping with the new normal but the response was rather limited. Perhaps this will give you a taste of what others are experiencing and, with some luck, we won’t need a follow-up piece over the summer.

As you all know and are experiencing, our normal lives have been supplanted by the global pandemic. Stay home, wash your hands, and when you must leave for food and medicine, wear gloves and a face scarf. Oh, and thank a healthcare worker, food delivery person and all the people behind the scenes keeping everything clean.

The question relevant to us here is how has this affected your interaction with the financial and commodity markets? After all, they are still open, despite the empty NYSE trading floor, and that means, thankfully, we all have jobs. They may be different, such as no in-person client contact, but technology allows us to make adjustments to keep things going.

I’ll start with my own situation. I’ve actually been working at home already for the better part of 20 years. It started with carrying floppy disks back and forth to the office in the 80s, dial-up and then a dedicated T-1 line in the 90s and finally the Internet. Software caught up with communications and voila, a home office emerged. I never set foot in a company office again until just last year.

I started a new job that required my on-site presence in an out-of-state office with a serious weekly commute back home. So, for me, having to work at home again full time was actually a step up to where I’d rather be. I am more productive and can take a nice lunch break in my own back yard with my own home cooking (leftovers, of course). I also am back to my zero-minute daily commute instead of a two-hour round trip to the office.

Basically, I have all the tools I had before plus a link into the office network for more proprietary data and charts. Throw in email, Microsoft Teams (chat) and GoToMeeting and we are at full work capacity.

I realize that I am luckier than most when it comes to forced working at home. Some people do not have large enough screens, proper interoffice communications or even the physical room in a small apartment to set up a functioning home office.

Anyway, while my story may not be typical, it does show that you can really work at home efficiently, as long as you have a job that does not require onsite customer visits. My only problem is that junior is home from school and needs plenty of attention, including home schooling. Therefore, my furloughed wife handles a majority of the home schooling and the rest is put on a schedule so we can share the load.

Here is a brief sample of some of the comments I received from other traders and analysts out there.

I am an investor from India and here we are under near total lock-down (21-day nationwide lockdown that started on 25th March). Financial Institutions such as banks, stock exchanges and stock brokers mostly running on skeletal staff at the present time.

Until a few months ago, I used to manage a small portfolio at a boutique investment management firm. While I currently invest for myself, even at my earlier company, investing / discussions with clients go on with the only change being that the calls come from home instead of the office.

The tools I use are all mostly online so I can shift the work space without much disturbance. Even earlier, we had remote desktop for the systems which had proprietary software and one which was available only at the office.

What has changed? With the kind of volatility we are seeing, I have always believed that physical meetings added more value than online. Otherwise, nothing much has changed given how much we are connected via Slack / WhatsApp and other tools available at the disposal.

– Prashanth K

There is nothing different for me since I’ve worked from a home office for years.  No adjustments necessary.  I still have access to all my trading and analysis tools (TradeStation and HGSI).

Here is some advice: With the frenetic state of the world and the markets the past few weeks, anxiety and tension has become the new norm.  Get in some exercise daily, even if it’s a walk around the block a few times.  Eat a sensible diet.  If working from home, ease your isolation by talking/emailing/tweeting with fellow traders and colleagues.

Most importantly, don’t watch the non-financial news (e.g., CNN) during the day.  It’s mostly gloom and doom and that will increase anxiety and tension.

– Dave S

As a fundamental value investor I’ve switched from using enterprise value and free cash flow as a primary metric and reverted back to looking at book value.  It’s a factor that has been lost over recent years. Amazing how many “strong” companies I own have negative equity due to recaps, such Autozone. It’s now a sell (editor’s note – this is dated information)

– Chris S

I’ve been using my time in a better way compared to real life with less time spent in transit or getting ready for work. All of my tools are available at all times, so I don’t have to go anywhere but my desk.

– Ricardo C

I’m trading strategies to take advantage of an elevated VIX that will come in – selling Apr 17 Puts & Calls, Apple, JNJ, COST, MSFT. Only companies w/ strong balance sheets! (editor’s note – again, dated information)

– Brent N

I had hoped for more feedback from out there, especially from people who had to make major adjustments to switch to the home office. Feel free to send them in to me at editor@cmtassociation.org. We are fortunate to be in an information and technology-driven industry.

Stay safe.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker.  Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

Chart Summit 2020 Resources

While you are stuck at home, here are some presentations to keep your TA mind sharp.

On Saturday, March 28th, 2020, the Technical Analysis community came together for a virtual conference, Chart Summit 2020, to educate, learn, and, most importantly, raise money for four charities that are supporting the fight against the COVID-19 Pandemic. Host JC Parets, CMT, and his team at All Star Charts partnered with Traders4ACause, the CMT Association, and over 30 market professionals/firms to deliver over 12 hours of content, hosting more than 10,000 registered participants, and raising over $50,000 for charity on the first day alone.

The presentations featured industry powerhouses like Dr. Brett Steenbarger, NYSE Floor Governor Jay Woods, Chief Equity Strategist of Bloomberg Intelligence Gina Martin Adams, and many others offering their own unique perspective on the current market environment. All of the replays are available for FREE at http://ChartSummit.com and donations are encouraged at https://e.givesmart.com/events/h45/.

Contributor(s)

Tom Bruni, CMT

Tom Bruni, CMT, is the Head of Market Research at Stocktwits, where he publishes the brand’s flagship market recap newsletter, “The Daily Rip,” for one million subscribers and oversees the platform’s growing publishing efforts. Bruni has been at the intersection of finance and media...

Baruch College Becomes the Home of an Important Research Collection in Technical Analysis

This announcement was dated December 2, 2019 but is relevant given our focus this month on resources for members.

The Technical Analysis Educational Foundation, Inc. (TAEF) has placed its research collection on long-term loan in the Newman Library of Baruch College. The collection includes nearly 7,000 publications that constitute a significant portion of the body of knowledge of technical analysis, which considers the empirical information derived from the activities of buyers and sellers in an open auction market. The holdings consist of books, historical texts, journals, investment advisory letters, recordings, electronic and digital media, chart books, and photographs. The collection continues to grow through new acquisitions and donations.

Through its partnership with Baruch College, the TAEF is able to make this collection available to a diverse community of users. The collection will benefit both professionals and new entrants to technical analysis. In addition to supporting instruction and research at Baruch College, many of the books are available to other institutions through interlibrary loan. Items published prior to 1930, advisory letters, journals, newspapers, pictures, sound recordings, and unbound books cannot be borrowed, but may be consulted on site in the Newman Library by appointment. The holdings may be searched via the catalog on the Newman Library’s website (https://library.baruch.cuny.edu/).

The collection includes books by the earliest generation of analysts and writers in this country who formulated and expanded the field of technical analysis – William Peter Hamilton and Robert Rhea of Dow Theory; Richard W. Schabacker on the principles of charting; Humphrey B. Neill on contrarian opinion; Harold M. Gartley, a leading stock market analyst of the 1930s; Alexander H. Wheelan on point and figure charting; and William D. Gann, Ralph Nelson Elliott, and Richard D. Wyckoff, who created technical theories that remain in use today. A large number of the Dow Theory letters of the late Richard Russell are part of the collection. The books of leading modern technicians such as Gerald B. Appel, Constance M. Brown, Alexander Elder, Humphrey E. D. Lloyd, Gregory L. Morris, John J. Murphy, Martin J. Pring, Robert R. Prechter, Victor Sperandeo, and Martin E. Zweig are included. These materials set forth the principles and theories of technical analysis that are of value to both professional investment managers and new members of the field.

The library also contains possibly the finest collection of books and writings dealing with the cyclicality of financial markets, physical sciences, human cultural activities, weather, biological rhythms, planetary activity, and natural phenomena. These publications present the findings of extensive research going back decades. The materials were originally compiled by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles established in 1941 and are currently owned by the CMT (Chartered Market Technician) Association.

Additional information is posted on the TAEF collection website (https://www.taeducation.org/about/library/).

About the Technical Analysis Educational Foundation, Inc. (https://www.taeducation.org/)

The Technical Analysis Educational Foundation, Inc. (TAEF) was established in March 1993, as a New York Not-for-Profit Corporation, then known as the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation, but renamed in January 2018. The original mission of the foundation was to create and fund educational programs in the field of Technical Analysis. This mission has expanded to include the creation and support of a complete Technical Analysis curriculum that is now being taught in colleges and universities for academic credit. According to its website (https://www.taeducation.org/), the foundation “unites industry experts from around the globe to develop comprehensive lectures, course outlines, and study materials designed for students new to technical analysis.”

About Baruch College (baruch.cuny.edu)

Baruch College provides students with the skills, knowledge, and perspectives to pursue their aspirations in today’s global environment. A leading college within The City University of New York (CUNY), Baruch is also listed among the nation’s top public institutions for academic excellence, affordability, student success, and value. Its three schools educate more than 18,000 students who represent one of the most diverse college campuses in the country. Strong career and support services drive Baruch’s national recognition as an engine for social and economic mobility. Through executive education, continuing studies, international partnerships, public events, and arts programming, Baruch stands out as an intellectual and cultural resource for New York City and the world.

Contributor(s)

Arthur Downing, Ph.D.

Arthur Downing, Ph.D. is Vice President for Information Services and Dean of the Library at Baruch College in New York. Arthur.Downing@baruch.cuny.edu

Member Interview

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I am the head trader for IPS Strategic Capital – an independent registered investment advisor based in Denver, CO that specializes in hedged equity and other options-based strategies. I am responsible for trade execution for all of the strategies employed by the firm, as well as monitoring markets and assessing potential pockets of risk within our investor’s portfolios. The firm manages a 40 Act Mutual Fund (IPSAX), as well as a variety of SMA and option overlay strategies for high net worth individuals, financial advisors, and other institutional clients.

How did you get there?

During my senior year of college, I took a class on derivatives and the professor of the class was the founder & CIO of IPS Strategic Capital, Dominick Paoloni. He explained that they had an internship program at the firm, which was very intriguing to me after learning so much from the class. I applied for the internship, got the position, and worked extremely hard for the next five months. I was fortunate enough to be offered a full-time position at the firm upon graduation for a role in sales & marketing. I worked in that capacity for about two years before moving into the trading and portfolio management side of the business. Since 2015, I have been responsible for trade execution, risk, and portfolio management for the firm’s strategies.

Who was an early mentor in your career?

I have been fortunate enough to work very closely with the founder & CIO of IPS, Dominick Paoloni throughout my career. He believed in me and allowed me to expand my knowledge and understanding of markets while working at the firm. Not only did he sponsor me while going through the CMT curriculum and tests but he also imparted the knowledge he’s gained over his 35 years in financial markets.

What book/author was most influential in helping you understand TA?

The book I most enjoyed when learning about TA early in my career was Technical Analysis: Power Tools for Active Investors by Gerald Appel. The CMT curriculum did a great job of familiarizing me with the concepts and foundations of TA but this book took my understanding to the next level with applicable approaches for TA strategies that still work in today’s markets.

What do you like to do when you are not looking at markets?

I’m fortunate enough to live in the beautiful state of Colorado so my summers are full of hiking and golfing. In the winters you can find me skiing the slopes most weekends.

What brought you to the CMT Association?

My father was in financial markets for his entire career and was always a user of TA. He helped me gain understanding of the concepts and foundations of TA and got me very interested in the discipline. He encouraged me to apply to the CMT program so that I could receive formal education on the subject, especially since there can be lots of misinformation out there to someone who is just beginning their studies.

What it the most useful benefit of membership for you?

There have been two main benefits of membership. First, is the understanding of the simple fact that price always rules and regardless of how badly people want to be right, the only thing that matters is making money. The second is the robust network of other professional CMTs that are a valuable resource.

Contributor(s)

Patrick Hennessy, CMT

Bio Coming

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

  • Durgesh Jadhav, Equity Advisor at SBICAP Securities
  • Vishal Mehta, CMT, Founder at Marketscanner.in

Since many of us are presently working from home, please take a few minutes to log into the website and update your information if your company, address or telephone has changed.  Stay safe.

CMT

If you have completed the CMT Level III exam or are presently registered for the exam and have the necessary three years of professional work experience, don’t forget to apply for the Professional Member status.

If you have any questions about the Professional Membership process, please forward your questions to admin@cmtassociation.org.

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members who received their CMT Designation in March 2020.

  • Noah Brooks
  • Wenkang Chung
  • Brian Cox
  • Jack Crowley
  • Trace Dennis
  • Neeradj Gangapersad
  • Joshua Goyette
  • Farzine Hachemian
  • Nagoor Haja
  • Nathaniel Herkimer
  • Seung Yeon Hong
  • James Kniffen
  • Li Ping Lai
  • Yi Fu Lee
  • Conor McClarey
  • Charles Nason
  • Brian O’Grady
  • Russell Openshaw
  • Paul Dean Rogers
  • Daniel Saffrin
  • Jason Scott
  • Deep Shah
  • Chakradhar Singh
  • Tarkeshwar Singh
  • Jia Hao Sng
  • Richard Weiss
  • Conor White
  • Brett Yoder

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

Marie Penza serves as the Director of Member Services for the CMT Association.