Technically Speaking, April 2023

Hello readers! It’s the Symposium Month!

The CMT Association is celebrating the 50th Annual Symposium this year, which will be bigger and better than ever! If you haven’t checked the most updated list of speakers yet, I’d suggest you get on with the task. The schedule is out, and you are in for an exciting time this year!

I had a chat recently with a member about the importance of having a system in place. Whether we are detail-oriented or not, we have a plan. And with that plan comes a system in place to function efficiently. But as with everything else, sometimes these plans don’t work out. And it is at this point that you truly understand how you react. No matter how many systems you have, you can never be sure of your emotional reaction. And these emotions of market participants make the market a unique living, breathing space every day. BUT, once the response passes (good or bad), you have a life jacket in place, which is your system: the series of processes or steps that assist you in understanding the next steps. I’ve found myself in new territory, with some of my plans not working out how I thought they would. And even though I’m still finding my footing, I’ve found solace in my system and processes. These systems bring calm to a storm and help jump right back into the game!

Studying the subject matter of technical analysis has helped draw parallels on so many psychological aspects of the human mind that I find helpful in maneuvering difficult paths. So when I look at my life, I think of it as a chart. The successes come as breakouts and new highs, the failures as short-term corrections, and times of inactivity as forming a base. As I patiently await my chart’s base breakout, I know that consolidating above the resistance zone is a sign of strength, and I’m focussing on just that!

Speaking of holding on to essential levels, what’s hovering close to its support and moving sideways is the Dollar Index which has been bound by 105 and 100 since December. And it is this activity that has propelled the stocks higher as more stocks move higher than lower. Several global indices are making new all-time or 52-week highs, specifically in the European region. With growth stocks picking up pace and technology returning to positive conversations, we also have strength from precious metals! The US market is yet to catch up with the strength that can be seen in other developed markets, and what remains to be seen is if the S&P 500 can move above 4200, the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 36500, and Dow Jones Transportation Average above 14500. There also seems to be an excellent recovery in Bitcoin, but all these trends are subject to king Dollar’s moves. It continues to be one of the most important charts to track.

For those attending the Symposium, enjoy each moment and do not hesitate to approach just about anybody for a chat. The CMT community is one of the most welcoming and friendly communities I have ever encountered. Leave those nerves at home, and have the best time! Oh, and take pictures!

Sidenote: Maybe share your experiences for next month’s newsletter with the readers.

Until next time, Think Technical!

Editor,

Rashmi Bhatnagar

What's Inside...

President's Letter

Brett Villaume

As we are celebrating our 50th Anniversary this year and you’re currently reading this publication, I wanted to...

Roping in the Bull

Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA

Over the past year, we have been trying to capture the new bull trend as it starts. It...

Fundamental Technical Analysis

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA

With the market performing better than most Wall Street strategists feel is warranted, now is the...

Accurate Trade Analysis with Candlestick Charts - Part II

Stephen W. Bigalow

Chart 2

When the overall...

Bitcoin's Portfolio-Enhancement Potential

Jamie Coutts, CMT, CFTe

Bitcoin’s Narrowing Volatility Shows Asset Allocation Potential

(Bloomberg Intelligence) — Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns make a...

CMT Association 50th Anniversary Book

The CMT Association is celebrating its 50th anniversary this year! To mark this important...

President's Letter

As we are celebrating our 50th Anniversary this year and you’re currently reading this publication, I wanted to shine a light on the history of Technically Speaking and highlight a few articles written long ago that every Member should absolutely go back and read.

Did you know that there are over 20 years of archived newsletters available to view on our website??? Here is a link to the page. Just scroll down to find the archives by year.

The most important article you should read is “The New MTA” from the May 2002 Technically Speaking, written by CMT Association Co-Founder Ralph Acampora, who was President at the time. In my opinion, there are two halves to our story as an association, with the year 2002 being the dividing line between them.

On September 11, 2001, the Market Technicians Association headquarters was destroyed in the World Trade Center attacks. It was a deeply traumatic time for America and for us as well. Thankfully none of our staff or volunteers were injured, but the MTA did lose our library of books and much of our record keeping.

In the article, Ralph laid out the vision for the New MTA: an association focused on educating professional members and elevating the status of Technical Analysis among financial professionals, as well as in academia. A major push began that year to transform the Association in many ways, including improving member value, advocacy, education, the CMT Program, governance of the board and committees, chapters, and the staff. The Board formed a search committee to hire our first Executive Director, John Kirby (see page 2 of the March 2003 Technically Speaking), which was a big part of this second phase of the Association, as I view it.

I think many CMT members today may not be aware of how transformational 2002-2003 was for us. The work performed in those years laid the foundation for our successful efforts to petition the NYSE and SEC for an exemption to the Research Analyst Qualification Examination. In the February 2005 Technically Speaking, Executive Director Kirby announced “Mission Accomplished” (see article on page 3), as Levels 1 and 2 of the CMT Exam were accepted as alternatives to the Series 86 exam.

There are many other articles in the Technically Speaking archives you should check out, such as the October 2005 “2005 Women’s Market Forecast Panel” article by Garry Rissman, which highlights the presentations by Louise Yamada, Gail Dudack, and a young Katie Townshend (Stockton). Or the January 2007 article “Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation” by Charles D. Kirkpatrick, CMT, that explains history and purpose of the TAEF, which manages the Technical Analysis Library at Baruch College in New York. Finally, the July 2017 edition announces our name change from the MTA to the CMT Association.

The Technically Speaking archive is an amazing resource to learn about the history of the Association, not to mention the technical analysis wisdom it contains.

I would like to thank all of the past Editors of Technically Speaking for their hard work and dedication, including Tony Dwyer, Mike Carr, John Kosar, Kevin Depew, Mike Kahn, and our current Editor, Rashmi Bhatnagar.

Contributor(s)

Brett Villaume

Brett Villaume is Past President of the CMT Association, having served on the Board of Directors from 2014 to 2023. Additionally, Brett is a Financial Advisor at Equitable Advisors, LLC (member FINRA/SIPC) based in San Francisco, California. Brett previously served as Director...

Roping in the Bull

Over the past year, we have been trying to capture the new bull trend as it starts. It has been a difficult bull market to get a rope on. Technicians use technical tools to diagnose the market trends. The real problem is the shifting sands under every trend are sending indicators to extremes or muting them because of the speed of the corrections.

S&P 500

Lets look at the S&P 500. For all the trends in the last 5 years, this last year has literally been a rodeo ride. Each time the market started to look like it was ready to go higher, it quickly reversed. Now we have a higher high and a higher low in place. Significant events have taken the banking index down multiples of standard deviations in two weeks to new 52-week lows, but we rallied the indexes. If we ignore the Covid lows, banks are at 6-year lows. The $SPX dropped a few percentage points and didn’t even make a lower low on the weekly.

Trend followers have been washed out with all the choppy price action. $SPX made 7% in two weeks in the end of March to go from unchanged on the year to up 7 % for the quarter. There have been sectors outperforming, but on a week in, week out basis, it has been a random event each week.

When all the technical evidence lines up that the markets are ready to drop to new lows, the market magically reverses higher.

Where are we in the opinion cycle?

There have been the bull market technicians that called the bull market low a few times in 2022.

-Perhaps you’ve heard that we are entering the blow off top. We’re going much higher.
-The bears are calling this ‘popping the everything balloon’ in the monumental topping of a debt frenzy.
=Same blow off discussion for both. The timing is different – one party thinks it has already occurred.

That’s a wide dispersion of opinion. But debt is definitely stressed here.

The yield curve inversion
It’s hard to imagine that the most extreme readings on the yield curve inversion in the last 40 years, won’t create a larger problem. It is a tough backdrop to get courageous. Looking at 2000 and 2007 suggests protecting capital.

How close to this topping process will create problems? It’s hard to expect the worst inversion on the chart to be a solid backdrop for the bull thesis after a 14-year run.

Trade with conviction. Only take the best setups. Really?

The Fed Funds Rate

The top chart is an arithmetic scale of the Fed Funds Rate. The Fed hasn’t updated their own database (FRED), so this chart is still missing the last ¼-point increase.

The second panel is a momentum indicator, the PPO. Notice how the swings are getting wilder every time? The range on the oscillator continues to stretch more extreme. From 2010 to 2018 it took 8 years for the oscillator to go from one extreme to the other. This time it took one year. The PPO does not look stable.

The third panel is the 12-month rate of change. Is this the backdrop to take the best setups?

Will it take a long time to rope the bull and ride it in this market? My best advice is to protect capital. Risk happens fast as we saw with banks. Correlation in a weak market goes to one. Nothing wrong with waiting for a better market.

We’ll see you in New York!

Contributor(s)

Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA

Greg A. Schnell, CMT, MFTA is a Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com, specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. Greg joined StockCharts in 2012 and has been instrumental in helping launch a variety of new blogs and other commentary platforms. Based in Calgary,...

Fundamental Technical Analysis

With the market performing better than most Wall Street strategists feel is warranted, now is the perfect time to reflect back on the importance of fundamentals, with a reminder of the difference between fundamental data and opinions about that fundamental data.

“Q: You mentioned how fundamental trends are what drive stocks higher over time. Granted, as you say, the actual drivers might be different from cycle to cycle, and to make matters worse, investors typically disagree about the prevailing fundamentals, but nonetheless, fundamentals seem to be very important. You have your CFA charter, yet it sounds like you don’t closely follow the fundamentals for individual stocks. Why not?

A: First, it is correct to say that fundamentals matter. In fact, if one were to ask me which trends are more important, fundamental or technical, I would say fundamental, hands down. Without strong fundamental trends, there simply are no strong technical trends, period. In fact, a study by Morgan Stanley showed how almost half of what a stock does in the short term (less than a year) is driven by valuation expansion or contraction; but looking out 3 to 10 years, 80-95% of what drives a stock’s price is the company’s actual fundamentals, particularly topline revenue growth. (Figure 11).

So, clearly, fundamentals are very important. That being said, there is a significant difference between actual fundamental trends and investor opinions about those trends. The data is critical, but opinions about the data are where we get ourselves in trouble. Despite the combined efforts of MBAs, PhDs and Nobel Laureates, almost 90% of active managers with opinions about fundamentals have struggled to beat the market over time. (Figure 12).

In the end, it is not that I don’t believe in fundamentals. In fact, there is nobody in the business that believes in fundamentals more than me. It’s just that, for reasons that I think are made clear by the long-term performance of active fundamental managers, I don’t value opinions about fundamentals, my own included. The market is the best fundamental analyst on the planet, which is why it is so hard to beat. So, rather than argue with the market, I have checked my ego at the door, effectively hiring the market to conduct my fundamental analysis for me. I meet with the market every day and intently listen to what it has to say, through the lens of my “MOTR” research process. ”

With so many bearish strategists these days, let’s not forget that “the market knows everything they know, everything they know they don’t know, plus everything they don’t even know they don’t know.” The stock market’s opinion is the only one that matters, and that opinion is reflected in price trends. I choose to follow trends now, willing to find out the “why” later.

Contributor(s)

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA

David Lundgren has more than three decades of investment industry experience, with a focus on technical analysis strategies, particularly momentum and trend following. He is the former Director of Technical Research at Wellington Management, where he was also a Managing Director and portfolio...

Accurate Trade Analysis with Candlestick Charts - Part II

Chart 2

When the overall market shows a bearish trend, candlestick scans will find the best bearish trade setups. The DKNG chart demonstrates a logical short trade when witnessing the Doji signals at the 200-day moving average. This immediately reveals investor indecision at that level. The following bearish engulfing signal demonstrates that the bears are taking control. The gap down through the T line, with stochastics curling down, indicates not only a downtrend, but the gap down reveals a powerful potential downtrend.

This visual information provides traders with the opportunity to short DKNG or buy puts. For investors holding positions for longer term, this allows for establishing strategies such as writing calls against the position to offset the pullback.

Out of the 50 or 60 candlestick signals, you only need to learn the 12 Major signals, six longs, and six shorts. The ‘12 major signals’ produce the strongest reversal indications, and they are the signals that occur the most often. The other candlestick signals do not occur often enough to spend mental time and energy learning and remembering them.

Additionally, the Japanese rice traders not only provided the visual graphic formations that identified high-probability price reversals, they also explained what investor sentiment was doing to create the reversal signals and patterns. This combination allows investors to analyze price movements with the same insights as an investor with 50 years of investment experience.

Candlestick signals and patterns not only illustrate when a new trend is starting, they also illustrate the strength of the new trend. A clear trend indicator is the T line. The T line acts as a natural support level of human nature. Applied in conjunction with candlestick signals and patterns, which are the graphic depiction of investor sentiment, you have one of the most effective and accurate trend analysis combinations.

The T-line rule has extremely high probability results. Candlestick logic is applied. If the candlestick signals are the graphic depiction of what is occurring in human nature and the T line acts like a natural support and resistance level of human nature, this combination produces an extremely high probability trend analysis result. If you see a candlestick buy signal and a close above the T line, you can stay long until you see a candlestick sell signal and a close back below the T line. The same analysis is on the short side. If you see a candlestick sell signal and a close below the T line, you can stay short until you see a candlestick buy signal and close above the T line.

What is most investors’ major downfall? Our own emotions! Candlestick analysis dramatically reduces our emotional decision-making. Suppose candlestick analysis is the graphic depiction of human nature, which is usually wrong when it comes to investing; then logic says to analyze what the charts are showing and do the opposite of what you think is the correct trade. Have you ever wondered, when everybody else is panic selling at the bottom, who is buying? Or when everybody is exuberantly buying at the top, who is selling? It is smart money!

You can turn your investment perspectives around 180°. Witnessing a candlestick buy signal in the oversold condition reveals where the smart money is buying. Witnessing a candlestick sell signal in the overbought condition reveals where the smart money is selling. Candlestick charts allow you to participate with smart money. Doing what the charts reveal takes the emotions out of your trading.

Candlestick signals utilize confirming indicators, such as moving averages and especially the T line, for correct trade entry. Witnessing a bullish candlestick signal that would be supporting at a moving average level that everybody else is watching enhances the probabilities that the bullish trade is confirming.

The candlestick investor has the advantage of seeing immediately what investor sentiment is doing at the technical levels other investors are using, Bollinger bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, trend line support, and resistance levels. Or if an investor has a successful chart trading system, adding candlesticks to the chart will improve the visual analysis dramatically.

The Japanese rice traders identified the graphics that illustrate when trend reversals occur. Where do most people buy? They buy exuberantly at the top! Where do most people sell? They panic sell at the bottom.

Knowing these aspects of human nature, the graphics provided by candlestick signals give great clarity as to when it is time to buy and when it is time to sell. Remember that the graphics work just as well on intraday trading charts as on daily, weekly, and monthly charts.

Candlestick signals and patterns produce expected results. The signals have been produced from centuries of observed price movements of human nature. Logic dictates that if they did not produce high-probability results, we would not be looking at them today.

Stephen W. Bigalow owner and operator of www.candlestickforum.com. His 45 years of investment trading, with heavy emphasis on candlestick analysis, provides a learning forum of candlestick analysis. He consults for money managers and hedge fund managers for improving market and positioning timing. Stockbroker: Kidder Peabody, Cowen, Oppenheimer. & Company. He holds a business and economics degree from Cornell University. Published: “Profitable Candlestick Trading”, “High Profit Candlestick Patterns”, and “Candlestick Profits, Eliminating Emotions”.

Contributor(s)

Stephen W. Bigalow

Stephen W. Bigalow owner of www.candlestickforum.com. His 45 years of investment trading, with heavy emphasis on candlestick analysis, provides a learning forum of candlestick analysis. He consults for money managers and hedge fund managers for improving market and positioning timing. Stockbroker: Kidder Peabody,...

Bitcoin's Portfolio-Enhancement Potential

Bitcoin’s Narrowing Volatility Shows Asset Allocation Potential

(Bloomberg Intelligence) — Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns make a case for its inclusion in the asset allocation process. Our analysis shows that while Bitcoin’s volatility has declined, global assets have become riskier. We believe Bitcoin’s volatility is the inverse of the ﬁat-based ﬁnancial system, which will likely become more unstable with time. (04/05/23)

Negative Headlines Mask Relative Outperformance

Historic rate hikes in 2022 resulted in one of the worst years for asset returns, while exposing leveraged and systemically-weak intermediaries in both the crypto and US banking sectors. This obscures Bitcoin’s relative risk-adjusted performance. Although Bitcoin ranked last in our global assets’ 12-month return with a 39% loss, on a risk-adjusted basis, it outperformed many major asset allocation buckets.

Bitcoin’s sortino ratio, our preferred risk measure as it doesn’t penalize upside volatility, has outperformed the traditional ’60/40′ portfolio, as well as US tech, EM equities and commodities over the past year. With the latter two regarded as diversiﬁers in strategic asset allocation portfolios, Bitcoin’s outperformance in a year with a massive drawdown highlights how it also possesses portfolio-enhancing qualities. (04/05/23)

Global Assets: One-Year Return and Sortino Ratio

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

Bitcoin Volatility: A Feature, Not a Bug

Bitcoin was able to traverse the changing market narratives of 1Q23, which shifted from “higher for longer” rates to that of recession and deﬂation. However, Bitcoin’s unique ability to compensate for extreme price volatility, through a higher risk-adjusted return, is what matters most to asset allocators.

Bitcoin’s 1Q return not only exceeded that of other global assets, but it was also the only one whose gain exceeded the 90-day volatility. Although it might not be a statistically meaningful time frame, the numbers may provide insight into the risk-return proﬁle of global assets should the current US banking crisis worsen or re-emerge in the future. Bitcoin may ﬁnally be exhibiting the characteristics of a ﬁnancial-system hedge, but the reality will be evident only with the full weight of time. (04/05/23)

Bitcoin Three-Month Returns vs. Global Assets

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

Traditional Assets Are Becoming More Volatile

A curious development of the past ﬁve years has been a narrowing of the spread between the volatility of traditional assets and Bitcoin. Since 2018, Bitcoin’s 90-day volatility decreased by 54% while that of most asset classes have increased. The magnitude of this change has been signiﬁcant. Global ﬁxed-income volatility has more than doubled, gold has seen a 56% increase, and most equity buckets are up double digits. The bottom line is that Bitcoin has become less “risky” than other assets on a relative basis.

The morphing volatility proﬁles of global assets versus that of Bitcoin underscore the point that volatility regimes, like market regimes, are non-stationary. Finally, the implications for the expected returns for these assets and asset-allocation strategies could be signiﬁcant, going forward. (04/05/23)

Change in 90-Day Volatility of Global Assets (%)

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

Bitcoin’s Bear-Market Anatomy

The intrinsic volatility of Bitcoin reﬂects the inherent instability of the banking system, we believe. Therefore, hype-and-disillusionment cycles will persist unless the market structure signiﬁcantly alters. We don’t expect this to happen until adoption reaches a high-water mark with hundreds of millions or perhaps billions of users, catalyzed by rising instability within the ﬁat-based system. Bear markets delivering negative returns of 70-80% every 3-4 years, lasting between 300 and 400 days, therefore, are likely to continue.

In 2018/19, Bitcoin fell 83% and the bear market lasted 311 days vs. 2022 which saw a 76.9% loss over 377 days. For completeness, during the prior bear cycle in 2013/14, Bitcoin registered a loss of 93% over 316 days. The chart shows the worst one-year calendar loss for these bear markets.

(04/05/23)

The Last Three Bitcoin Bear Markets

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

Bitcoin Outperforms Fixed Income

Comparing risk-adjusted returns during the last two bear markets further illustrates changing asset- allocation dynamics. In the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin’s sortino ratio ranked second last in our global assets table, just slightly better than commodities. Juxtapose this with the 2022 bear market; Bitcoin has risen to sixth out of the 12 assets, outperforming global, tech and emerging-market equities. The biggest surprise has been the severe underperformance of global ﬁxed income, often seen as the ballast in portfolio construction.

Knowing the characteristics and structures of bear markets is essential for asset allocation purposes.

(04/05/23)

Assets’ Sortino Ratios When Bitcoin Declines

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

Superior Sortino Ratio

Although the asset’s history is short, Bitcoin has performed other global assets over one-, two-, and three-year cycles. Its sortino ratio since 2013, which includes three cycles, is 2.46, nearly double that of the second-best performer, the Nasdaq 100. For the two most recent cycles, it tops the rankings despite the sortino ratio falling to 1.55.

The second observation is that the spread between Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted return and global assets, while narrowing since 2013, has started to reverse in the past three years, or the last Bitcoin cycle. The main cause has been the poor performance — higher volatility, lower returns — of global assets. Although we aren’t predicting the direction, Bitcoin may warrant consideration in asset allocation, given its suﬃciently robust long-term risk-adjusted return. (04/05/23)

Risk-Adjusted Returns Over Multiple Cycles

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

To contact the analyst for this research:

Jamie Douglas Coutts at jcoutts10@bloomberg.net

Contributor(s)

Jamie Coutts, CMT, CFTe

Jamie Coutts, CMT, CFTe is a crypto market analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence and is responsible for creating crypto market structure, asset, sector and thematic analysis content for clients. He takes a multi-disciplinary approach to his analysis of this emergent asset class, combining...

CMT Association 50th Anniversary Book

The CMT Association is celebrating its 50th anniversary this year! To mark this important event, George Schade and Karen Benefield along with Ralph Acampora have written a book highlighting the history of the association and its journey thus far.

I had the opportunity to interview Karen for the same, and here are some excerpts from the chat:

Rashmi: Could you tell us about the association’s founders and what brought them together? What is the birth story of the CMT Association?

Karen: The association has many people to thank for their early involvement. These include senior mentors, Bob Farrell & Alan Shaw; 3 original founders John Brooks, John Greeley & Ralph Acampora along with the original 13 other charter members. The story starts with a chance meeting between John Brooks and Ralph while they were standing in line for their point and figure charts.

R: What were some challenges the association faced in its early days?

K: I think the main challenge the association faced early on is still a challenge today. That is that technical analysis is still not widely accepted even today like fundamental analysis. All one has to do is look at most business school offerings and there are still very few classes taught in technical analysis at the classroom level.

R: What led to the Annual seminars, and how have they changed over the years?

K: Technicians wanted to get together and listen to speakers that they had only heard about and never had the opportunity to meet in person. The best way to carry this out was to hold seminars in different locations in the U.S. and over time attract people of all interests. They were smaller in nature and the organization was more like a club in the early days. What we call today the annual Symposium, originated as the annual seminar.

R: This is where I’m personally invested – what is the origin story of the first edition of Technically Speaking? How did the market participants receive it?

K: Since shortly after its inception, the association has published the Technically Speaking monthly newsletter. The goal was to inform membership of association activities, personal accomplishments and matters of professional interest. When Michael Carr was Editor, he took the newsletter into the digital age. Distribution was digital. But before the internet, the newsletter was a leading publisher of research. It delivered novel ideas every month, along with news from the organization. For members outside of New York City, this mailing could be their only regular contact with peers. The newsletter continues to serve as a valuable resource for short research pieces and continues to serve as a way for new and experienced professionals to gain exposure to a wide audience for their work. It has served this purpose for decades and will be serving as a forum for cutting edge ideas decades from now.

R: What was the tipping point of introducing the Chartered Market Technician Credential?

K: Technicians wanted to be treated as equal as fundamental analysts. The association wanted to design and establish a professional certification program that would provide the highest level of education. A related objective was to expand the education and advancement of the discipline of technical analysis.

R: What is the significance of The Library at Baruch College in the context of the CMT Association?

K: The Library at Baruch College is part of the Technical Analysis Educational Foundation, established by the MTA in 1993. The collection includes nearly 5,000 publications that constitute a significant portion of the body of knowledge of technical analysis. The holdings consist of books, historical texts, journals, investment advisory letters, recordings, electronic and digital media, chart books, and photographs. The collection includes books by the earliest generation of analysts and writers in this country who formulated and expanded the field of technical analysis as well as the books of leading modern technicians. The collection also contains possibly the finest collection of books and writings dealing with the cyclicality of financial markets, physical sciences, human cultural activities, weather, biological rhythms, planetary activity, and natural phenomena. These publications, originally compiled by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, present the findings of extensive research going back decades. Through its partnership with Baruch College, the collection is available to members, academics, and researchers. The collection benefits both professionals and new entrants to technical analysis and preserves the literature of the field.

R: As a market participant, what have been the most significant changes you have noticed in the adoption of technical analysis today?

K: Technical analysis is more often highlighted in the media today than in the past. All too often when technical analysis is covered in the media, the media still doesn’t give it the respect that it deserves. Too often the host cuts off the technician and flashes up a chart. This comes across as disjointed.

R: Why did the MTA become the CMT Association?

K: The MTA was changed to the CMT Association to better align from a marketing and professional standpoint. We are charterholders just like CFA’s but on the technical side not the fundamental side. It made sense to change our name to better reflect the credential of our members.

R: What was the inspiration behind writing this book?

K: Apparently, George & Ralph knew we were going to write a book from the beginning. I on the other hand thought I volunteered to help with a brochure that was going to be similar to a brochure given out at our 25th Symposium. The inspiration has been to document to the best of our ability for current and future members the who, what, when, where and why which defines our association. We are 50 years old and a lot of our early members are no longer with us. The three of us have been very adamant about documenting the correct history and to verify the facts which gets harder with time. It is important to us to document the history, people and achievements of our organization because there have been many.

R: Having reflected on the history of the CMT Association, what is something that stayed with you or surprised you about the association/founders?

K: I was very fortunate to have had the opportunity to interview many of the Legends. Every person I asked to interview for our book said yes. I was very humbled in getting the opportunity to interview such a wonderful group of technicians. There are several things that will stay with me, having had the great pleasure to contribute to this history book. First, all of the technicians I interviewed are among the great technicians and are people that I have admired my entire career. More important is that they are all fantastic people and very humble. George drafted a fantastic outline from the beginning, which allowed me to start my interviews immediately. Without George’s draft there would be no history book. Without Ralph there would be no CMT Association. As is often said in our industry, I have stood on the shoulders of two giants, and I had the best view in the house!

Thanks to everyone that contributed to our history book!