public

Technically Speaking, August, 2006

From the Editor’s Desk

As we prepare for the MTA’s Long-Range Planning Meeting to be held in September, we face a very fundamental question here at Technically Speaking – “What is our purpose?” This newsletter can serve many purposes:

  • Publish the original work of members and affiliates.
  • Reprint articles from other sources which contribute to the knowledge of our membership.
  • Disseminate news from the MTA.
  • Connect Regions by collecting news from their meetings. Meeting summaries share knowledge and news, and seem to be enjoyed by our readers.

In the past, we have attempted to do all these things, and in this issue we include information from each of these categories. But we have never learned what you, our readers, are actually expecting from us. Over the next month, please take a moment and send us your comments about what you think our purpose should be. You can e-mail me at editor@mta.org.

While thinking about that question, we hope you’ll enjoy the newsletter. On the cover, you noticed an interview with Welles Wilder, previously published in The Trader’s Journal. We have all seen Wilder’s work, and this interview offered us a chance to learn more about the technician behind RSI and other indicators. To me, the most interesting part of the interview is when he attributes his success to his ability to write advertising copy. What an interesting insight – no one knows how good you are until you tell them about your work.

We also have a software review, prepared by Matt Blackman, a frequent contributor to our newsletter who recently moved from affiliate to member status. Writing for us helped Matt
to become better known within the MTA, and made it easier for him to find sponsors. (That last sentence is my subtle monthly request for your contributions.)

You’ll also find an original study on seasonality by Frank Testa in this issue. Along with the list of Regions contacts and assorted news about our Association, it’s a typical newsletter. However, you have many choices of where to publish your work, and where to read about technical analysis. Maybe Technically Speaking no longer meets the needs of our members. Perhaps you’d rather a slimmer newsletter with only MTA news, or a longer newsletter with more current analysis. Unless you tell us what you’d like to see, we’ll continue delivering what we hope is a high-quality, must-read product every month.

Sincerely,

Mike Carr, CMT
Editor

What's Inside...

From the President’s Desk

by Phil Roth, CMT

Greetings Members and Affiliates: I trust everyone is taking some time off this summer to reinvigorate. I did. But the MTA is a year-round operation, and our meetings and planning goes on. Let me...

J. Welles Wilder

by Stuart McPhee

interview they did with Welles Wilder. They have graciously allowed Technically Speaking to reprint a portion of their interview. Please see their web site, www.traders-journal.com, for more...

Stocks’ Seasonality

by Frank E. Testa, CMT

The direction of the overall market has a paramount impact on the success of one’s investment approach. Wall Street recognizes the importance of the overall health of the market through the adage...

“The Fusion Trader’s Secret Weapon” A Review of VectorVest Online Software

by Matt Blackman, CMT

Traditionally, the gap between fundamental and technical traders/investors has been more gulf than line. Each group views the other with skepticism more akin to enemy troops rather than members of...

From the President’s Desk

From the President’s Desk

Greetings Members and Affiliates: I trust everyone is taking some time off this summer to reinvigorate. I did. But the MTA is a year-round operation, and our meetings and planning goes on. Let me start off by reminding everyone about the MTA’s Long Term Planning meeting on September 9, 2006. The meeting will be held at the Doubletree Hotel at Newark Airport in New Jersey. The actual address is 1000 Spring Street in Elizabeth, New Jersey. We chose that hotel because it is very accessible for out-of-town members, just a few minutes from the airport. The MTA Board will be there en masse, as will most of the committee chairs. This is a great opportunity for you to meet the people who are responsible for running the MTA, both volunteers and staff, and to offer your opinions and suggestions about strategy, past, present, and future. The Search Committee for an Executive Director has

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Philip J. Roth, CMT

Phil Roth, CMT

Back to top
J. Welles Wilder

J. Welles Wilder

interview they did with Welles Wilder. They have graciously allowed Technically Speaking to reprint a portion of their interview. Please see their web site, www.traders-journal.com, for more information on this magazine. Welles Wilder is best known for his technical indicators – now considered to be core indicators in technical analysis software. These include Average True Range, the Relative Strength Index, Directional Movement and the Parabolic Stop and Reverse. He has written many articles on trading, appeared on numerous radio and television programs, and conducted technical trading seminars in Asia, Australia, Canada, USA, and Europe. He has also developed the Delta market timing software, One Day at a Time. Around the world, there are probably more traders using Mr. Wilder’s systems and methods than any other discipline. Who is J. Welles Wilder ? TJ: Please provide a background of yourself? What were you doing before you became a trader? When and how did you

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Stuart McPhee

Back to top
Stocks’ Seasonality

Stocks’ Seasonality

The direction of the overall market has a paramount impact on the success of one’s investment approach. Wall Street recognizes the importance of the overall health of the market through the adage “A rising tide lifts all boats” – meaning the probability of selecting stocks that will rise is enhanced by investing in a market that is in the midst of an uptrend.  Virtually all markets experience seasonal patterns, thus the astute investor can position his/ her portfolio in sync with the cyclicality of various financial instruments. For instance, copper has a strong seasonal uptrend from the January/February period with a tendency to top in March or April. Treasury Bond prices are usually weaker during the first half of the year and stronger during the second half. Likewise, stocks enjoy periods of particularly strong performances throughout the 12-month time frame. Most people are familiar with the January barometer that holds “as January

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Frank E. Testa, CMT

Back to top
“The Fusion Trader’s Secret Weapon” A Review of VectorVest Online Software

“The Fusion Trader’s Secret Weapon” A Review of VectorVest Online Software

Traditionally, the gap between fundamental and technical traders/investors has been more gulf than line. Each group views the other with skepticism more akin to enemy troops rather than members of the same profession. Technical analysts believe that all they need to know about a stock can be found in its price chart. By the time the market knows about key fundamentals, they have already been priced into the stock. One only has to look at the approach of a value or buy-and-hold investor for an example of this, they claim. A value investor buys stocks when the price drops since the cheaper the price, the greater the value. This approach with stocks like Enron and WorldCom resulted in colossal losses for those who used it. Fundamental analysts, on the other hand, charge their technical counterparts with using past data to make future stock buying and selling decisions. Such an approach, they claim,

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Matt Blackman, CMT

Back to top

New Educational Content This Month

Back to top