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Technically Speaking, August 2019

Once again, we find ourselves dealing with the external market forces of a China trade deal. Will we, or won’t we? But this time, China went into the currency markets and nobody liked that very much. And the internal forces, somewhat internal, anyway, of the Fed dropping rates – giving the market what it asked to get – was not fun either. Apparently, it was not enough. I get that the yield curve almost demands further cuts but the economy is also pretty much at the higher end of possibilities. Why exactly do we need cuts? To appease the bond market? Or is the bond market inverted because it knows the Fed will act? What will the historians say in 20 years? I cannot wait to find out! Gold has a long-term breakout. Copper looks terrible. Oil, too. The Baltic Dry rate is soaring but sources tell me it has nothing to do with demand, rather for ships out under adjustments. And the amount of global debt offering negative yields is at another record. I’ll leave it to you to decide if that is reason

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

What's Inside...

Letter from the Executive Director

by Alvin Kressler

As we continue to expand the Association’s reach globally, the CMT Association board and staff are very pleased to announce that the inaugural summit event is in the planning stages for Mumbai...

Member Benefits Update

by Emily E.A. Meyer

Our March newsletter featured an article that explained our website transition to accommodate member restricted content, which was related to the broader shift in our online strategy to improve the...

How Python Made Me A Better Trader

by Christopher Cain, CMT

As investment professionals, one thing we all have in common is that we are constantly looking to improve our trading and investment results. It’s a never-ending passion that’s well worth...

Member Interview with Larry Williams

by Larry Williams

Please tell us what you do professionally. I primarily trade, lecture occasionally and publish my weekly commentary, LarryTV, for a few loyal followers. How did you get there? I have a degree in...

Members in the Media

by Marianna Tessello

Many of our members were featured in a range of news stories this month, including videos, print publication stories and podcasts. Below, glance through our most-shared Members in the Media posts....

New York Chapter Speaker Review

by Tom Bruni, CMT

The New York City Chapter of the CMT Association welcomed Tony Dwyer, Chief Market Strategist at Canaccord Genuity to its meeting on July 23. Tony provided an interesting perspective. While he...

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Review

by Mahesh Johari, CFA

Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, a Canadian wealth management and brokerage firm, presented at the July meeting of the Minnesota chapter to a good-sized crowd of 25...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Membership The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Darren Heil, CMT, Co-Founder & Partner at QM Advisors Jacob Elwood (former CMT Association...

Letter from the Executive Director

Letter from the Executive Director

As we continue to expand the Association’s reach globally, the CMT Association board and staff are very pleased to announce that the inaugural summit event is in the planning stages for Mumbai membership. This past spring, as we reviewed our goals as an international organization and took part in the board’s annual assessment of our near-term and long-term event plans, we identified the need to deliver longer format, more in-depth programming in several overseas markets. 

These events are not meant to replace the annual symposium in New York, but rather serve as a supplement to bring high-level content on technical analysis to markets where we have been experiencing strong growth and outsized interest in the discipline.  Planning is well underway for a 1-day conference this fall in Mumbai, India.

The preliminary information for each of these conferences is as follows:

CMT Association India Technical Analysis Summit
23 November 2019
Taj Lands

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Alvin Kressler

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Member Benefits Update

Member Benefits Update

Our March newsletter featured an article that explained our website transition to accommodate member restricted content, which was related to the broader shift in our online strategy to improve the visibility of CMT Association members to those outside the organization while providing better benefits to our membership. As this shift concludes, several new sections have become available on the website: Member Discounts & Resources (under the Member Benefits menu tab) and Podcasts (under the Media tab).

Recently, the CMT Association has been working with several third-party vendors to negotiate exclusive discounts on technical tools & resources for Association members. As of August 15th, we have arranged for five third-party vendors to offer ongoing discounts to association members, and identified one additional resource, Qwoted, a valuable tool for members looking to further their career or visibility in media. These opportunities are accessible on the Member Discounts & Resources page, which is exclusive

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Emily E.A. Meyer

Emily E.A. Meyer

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How Python Made Me A Better Trader

How Python Made Me A Better Trader

As investment professionals, one thing we all have in common is that we are constantly looking to improve our trading and investment results. It’s a never-ending passion that’s well worth pursuing.

In order to achieve this, our improvements must come in many places. Most of us spend a lot of time focusing on specific trading strategies and methods, which are obviously important. Just as important, however, is the ability to be able to build and test these strategies. In order to do this, you must have professional-level programming tools and skills.

Like many professional traders, both those who work for major investment firms and those who trade for themselves, my trading and strategy development skills were greatly enhanced when I learned how to program in Python.

I am often asked what I can do now that I wasn’t able to do before using my previous programming tools? How has Python expanded my skill

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Christopher Cain, CMT

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Member Interview with Larry Williams

Member Interview with Larry Williams

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I primarily trade, lecture occasionally and publish my weekly commentary, LarryTV, for a few loyal followers.

How did you get there?

I have a degree in journalism from the University of Oregon so I suppose that explains why I’ve written books and newsletters. What got me into the markets was pure and simple; greed. It looked easy to figure out if something would go up or down. To think one could make money without going to work, having a job working in a refinery like my dad and I did, or, sitting behind the desk writing a story for the local newspaper just blew me away.

My dad had always said learn to work with your brain, not your back like he did, so this certainly rang a bell for me. And it looked so easy … a market will either go up or down for

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Larry Williams

Larry Williams

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Members in the Media

Members in the Media

Many of our members were featured in a range of news stories this month, including videos, print publication stories and podcasts. Below, glance through our most-shared Members in the Media posts. And remember to tag @CMTAssociation if you’re sharing your own clips on social media!

Frank Cappelleri, CMT And Andrew Thrasher, CMT Featured On CNBC

AUGUST 7, 2019 — In the wake of Monday’s steep market decline, both Andrew Thrasher, CMT and Frank Cappelleri, CMT were featured on CNBC Tuesday as part of a roundup of several analysts positing that stocks had farther to fall before recovering. 

“Since the May low, the comeback has produced a number of bullish formations,” said Cappelleri. This current sell-off “has been so sharp, what’s going to have to happen is to watch the ensuing bounce and see how strong or not it is. … It’s interesting because some of these moves are some of the largest

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

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New York Chapter Speaker Review

New York Chapter Speaker Review

The New York City Chapter of the CMT Association welcomed Tony Dwyer, Chief Market Strategist at Canaccord Genuity to its meeting on July 23.

Tony provided an interesting perspective. While he focuses on macroeconomic and fundamental data, in addition to technicals, he emphasized that his approach is always data-based, not opinion-based.

He performs technical analysis on fundamental data.

Before getting into the meat of his presentation, Tony shared an important perspective on people’s behavior, which affects their analysis. Paraphrasing, he said, “When people remember the past, they don’t remember exactly what happened. They remember their own interpretation or version of the past.”

Being the data-dependent strategist he is, Tony has done the work to go through the microfiche articles to see what was actually happening and being said during the periods in history that he’s studying.

As market technicians, we are historians, so we need to make sure we’re basing our analysis on what actually

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

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Minnesota Chapter Speaker Review

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Review

Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, a Canadian wealth management and brokerage firm, presented at the July meeting of the Minnesota chapter to a good-sized crowd of 25 people. 

Dwyer is enthusiastic about history and data, citing “I love data!”  

Currently, he sees parallels with the markets in 1994-1995.  The Fed had doubled rates in 1994, the market was weak, and President Clinton started a trade conflict with Japan to distract from domestic investigations.  The Fed raised rates in February 1995 but had to reverse course by July 1995 and start cutting because then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan was afraid of recession. 

Here are Five Market Truths, according to Dwyer:

  1. The direction of earnings drives the market.
  2. The direction of earnings is driven by the economy.
  3. The yield curve drives the economy.
  4. Fed policy drives the yield curve.
  5. Inflation and inflation expectations drive Fed policy.

Currently 2-yr and 10-yr yields are low relative

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Mahesh Johari, CFA

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Membership News

Membership News

Membership

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

  • Darren Heil, CMT, Co-Founder & Partner at QM Advisors
  • Jacob Elwood (former CMT Association Intern), Planner at Sam’s Club
  • Asutosh Mehta, CMT, Assistant Vice President at BOB Capital Markets Ltd
  • Miguel Rito, Consultor Imobiliário at Engel & Völkers Porto

Updating Your Profile

Please be sure to login to the website and update your profile so we have up-to-date information on our members!

CMT Registration

Congratulations to all the candidates who passed their June 2019 CMT Exam!  Results for all levels have been emailed to the candidates.  If you did not receive your results, please email Marie at marie@cmtassociation.org

Have you recently completed the CMT Level III exam? Don’t forget to apply for the Member Status so that you can be granted the CMT designation.  Application and Sponsor Questionnaire can be found on the website under Membership/Type of Membership/Professional Membership. 

Questions about the process can be

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

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New Educational Content This Month

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