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Technically Speaking, December 2008

Letter from the Editor

The content in this month’s newsletter is similar to what you’ve come to expect from us. We present very brief summaries of technical perspectives offered by expert technicians Ken Tower, Ken Winans, and Jeff Lay at a recent Trader’s Expo. A link to a video of the entire panel discussion is available on your member  homepage. Other articles include a couple book reviews and the Nominating Committee and Dow Award Committee have also provided important information. This issue of Technically Speaking represents the end of an era, and the beginning of a new one. It is the last one which will be delivered as a hard copy. Beginning in January 2009, we will be using electronic delivery to serve you better.  Initially we will be delivering the same information in a different format. Once a month, we will email a newsletter similar to the other electronic newsletters many of you now receive.  Links to each article will take you to the full text, and there will be an option to print anything you’d

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What's Inside...

MTA at the Las Vegas Trader’s Expo

by Michael Carr, CMT & Ken Tower, CMT & Ken Winans, CMT & Jeffery E. Lay, CMT

At the November Trader’s Expo in Las Vegas, the Market Technicians Association hosted a panel discussion on the current market environment. The event was very well received, with a standing room...

Letter from the Nominating Committee

by Phil Roth, CMT

At this point, we have filled all nominating committee positions for the upcoming Board selection process. I am pleased to announce that our nominating committee this year has the diversity of MTA...

On the Campus; Technical Analysis Meets FIU

by Jonathan Nejad

The Financial Management Association (FMA) at Florida International University was privileged to have Barry Sine present at our October 15th meeting. His presentation was on technical analysis, an...

The Value of the Charles H. Dow Award

by Buff Dormeier, CMT

Established the Charles H. Dow Award to encourage technically based research and strengthen the credibility of technical research. The Charles H. Dow Award has become the most significant and...

2009 Charles H. Dow Award Competition

by George A. Schade, Jr., CMT

The competition for the 2009 Charles H. Dow Award is open. The Award for excellence and creativity in technical analysis has been presented since 1994, and today is the most significant writing...

Beat the Market: Invest by Knowing What Stocks to Buy and What Stocks to Sell by Charles D. Kirkpatrick, II, CMT

by Charles D. Kirkpatrick & Michael Carr, CMT

Well known with the MTA, Kirkpatrick is becoming a prolific author. This is his second book. The first, Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians, was co-authored...

Beyond Greed and Fear

by Michael Carr, CMT

The book Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing by Hersh Shefrin was recently added to the CMT program reading list. The book provides a solid...

David L. Upshaw, CFA, CMT, Friend and Gentleman

by Brad Herndon, CFA, CMT

I recently learned during a telephone conversation with Les Williams, CMT that one of our longtime, mutual friends, David L. Upshaw, CFA, CMT, passed away on November 8, 2008. Les and I had the...

Business Models that Work: Toni Hansen

by Toni Hansen

This is the first in what we hope will be a series of articles on business models that successful technicians employ. At the recent Trader’s Expo in Las Vegas, Toni Hansen gave a presentation...

MTA at the Las Vegas Trader’s Expo

MTA at the Las Vegas Trader’s Expo

At the November Trader’s Expo in Las Vegas, the Market Technicians Association hosted a panel discussion on the current market environment. The event was very well received, with a standing room only crowd of about 150 attending in person and
another 80 viewing the live webcast. It was among the best attended events at the three-day seminar. 

Ken Tower, CMT, was the first presenter. He began by making a simple point. “This should be a banner year for investors using technical tools. Volatility has been tremendous and it has been a strongly trending market. Yet too many have their heads hung low. Why? How did we miss so much opportunity?”

While this question clearly applied to the individual investors who attended the Trader’s Expo, the large losses incurred by hedge funds and institutions shows

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Contributor(s)

Michael Carr, CMT

Michael Carr, CMT

Ken Tower, CMT

Ken Winans, CMT

Jeffery E. Lay, CMT

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Letter from the Nominating Committee

Letter from the Nominating Committee

At this point, we have filled all nominating committee positions for the upcoming Board selection process. I am pleased to announce that our nominating committee this year has the diversity of MTA representation that truly covers the general membership of the MTA. 

There are two At-large Board positions that are up for consideration this year. These positions are for a 3-year term which commences July 1, 2009.

Over the next two (2) months, we are encouraging any Member, Honorary Member or Emeritus Member in good standing to submit your name for consideration by the nominating committee, along with a description of the Board position you are seeking. The nominating committee will then seek out your completion of a tailored questionnaire as part of its review process. In addition, if you do not wish to serve but have suggestions on who might be willing/able to do so, we would encourage you to write

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Philip J. Roth, CMT

Phil Roth, CMT

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On the Campus; Technical Analysis Meets FIU

On the Campus; Technical Analysis Meets FIU

The Financial Management Association (FMA) at Florida International University was privileged to have Barry Sine present at our October 15th meeting. His presentation was on technical analysis, an area with mixed emotions, to say the least. Attendees of the meeting ranged from freshman to faculty and everyone in between. Barry gave a 45-minute presentation, which covered the history of technical analysis, key terms, trends, and patterns. He wrapped up his presentation by analyzing securities that some of the students had selected. The full presentation including the slide show is available at the FMA website at www.fiufma.org/investments.

How did the attendees react to such a topic? Amazed! When speaking with some of the members after the

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

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The Value of the Charles H. Dow Award

The Value of the Charles H. Dow Award

Established the Charles H. Dow Award to encourage technically based research and strengthen the credibility of technical research. The Charles H. Dow Award has become the most significant and prestigious recognition in the field of technical analysis. 

The Award is named after Charles H. Dow, the modern era pioneer of technical analysis, and the creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In accordance with the MTA’s mission of educating the investment community, participant’s works are judged under stringent criteria by a judging panel consisting of some of the industry’s most respected practitioners.

Prior recipients of the Award include an outstanding group of researchers and authors who have creatively broken new ground while demonstrating the richness and depth of technical research.

The Award provides an incentive to share that which may be determined to be this year’s most noteworthy contribution to the field of technical analysis. A $4000 cash prize will be given to

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Buff Dormeier, CMT

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2009 Charles H. Dow Award Competition

2009 Charles H. Dow Award Competition

The competition for the 2009 Charles H. Dow Award is open. The Award for excellence and creativity in technical analysis has been presented since 1994, and today is the most significant writing competition in the field. The recipients of the Award are among the most notable market technicians. The success of the Award has resulted in an enhanced cash prize.

The winning author will receive a cash prize of $4,000.00 and will be invited to present their paper at an MTA seminar or chapter meeting. The paper or a summary may be published in the MTA’s Journal of Technical Analysis, Technically Speaking newsletter, and posted to mta.org. At the discretion of the judging panel, the authors of runner-up papers will receive certificates.

The last day to submit papers is February 6, 2009, and the winner will be selected on or before May 8, 2009. The 2009 guidelines (below) and copies of all

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

George A. Schade, Jr., CMT

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Beat the Market: Invest by Knowing What Stocks to Buy and What Stocks to Sell by Charles D. Kirkpatrick, II, CMT

Beat the Market: Invest by Knowing What Stocks to Buy and What Stocks to Sell by Charles D. Kirkpatrick, II, CMT

Well known with the MTA, Kirkpatrick is becoming a prolific author. This is his second book. The first, Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians, was co-authored with Julie Dahlquist, and is now a part of the CMT reading list.

This book shares some similarities with his first. Kirkpatrick exhaustively details his subject, ensuring the reader fully grasps each point before moving on to the next. The logic underlying each principle is also fully explained.

Beat the Market also reflects Kirkpatrick’s candid personality. Everything needed to emulate this technique is included in the book – all formula, all rules. In that respect, the book is similar to the 2001 Dow Award winning paper submitted by Kirkpatrick.

Kirkpatrick spoke at the MTA Symposium after he was recognized with the MTA Annual Service Award. At that time, he presented some of the research which is included in this book. He demonstrated that his

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Charles D. Kirkpatrick

Michael Carr, CMT

Michael Carr, CMT

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Beyond Greed and Fear

Beyond Greed and Fear

The book Beyond Greed and Fear:

Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing by Hersh Shefrin was recently added to the CMT program reading list. The book provides a solid overview of the heuristics that form the core of this field and addresses the impact of psychology on the investment decision making process on the individual, professional, and institutional investors.

In discussing technical analysis, Shefrin recounts how Ralph Acampora made an amazingly accurate market call in 1998 and was blamed by many for single-handedly causing a market crash in August of that year.

During that time, Ralph was the widely respected and followed technician for Prudential Securities. Ralph recalls that he had been travelling on a camera safari that July, and when he got back, CNBC anchor Ron Insana called to schedule a short interview. On August 3, 1998, Ralph told the audience that he was starting to see signs of

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Carr, CMT

Michael Carr, CMT

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David L. Upshaw, CFA, CMT, Friend and Gentleman

David L. Upshaw, CFA, CMT, Friend and Gentleman

I recently learned during a telephone conversation with Les Williams, CMT that one of our longtime, mutual friends, David L. Upshaw, CFA, CMT, passed away on November 8, 2008. Les and I had the wonderful privilege of knowing David for many years as he was a great friend who defined the word “gentleman.”

I first met David in Charlottesville, VA in 1993 during my first year of grading CFA exams. We quickly developed a friendship that evolved around both the CFA and CMT exams. He was a very strong advocate and ambassador for the MTA and technical analysis, and was actively involved during the formative years of the MTA. David was a past MTA president, was actively involved in the MTA Journal, and participated in writing CMT exams. We spent many hours together and on the phone discussing the CMT curriculum and exams, as well as the technical condition of the

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

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Business Models that Work: Toni Hansen

Business Models that Work: Toni Hansen

This is the first in what we hope will be a series of articles on business models that successful technicians employ.

At the recent Trader’s Expo in Las Vegas, Toni Hansen gave a presentation entitled “A Complete Guide to Momentum Position Trading and Investing with Toni Hansen.” Although she was speaking at 8 AM on a Saturday morning in Vegas, she drew a large and enthusiastic crowd and the majority of attendees were familiar with her work.

Toni is a self-trained market technician who has been actively trading the markets for about twelve years. Like many successful technicians, she came to the field from a seemingly unrelated endeavor. While studying archeology, she noticed that stock charts tended to have patterns and treated the charts as a logic problem to solve – similar to the approach she would apply to an archeological puzzle. So, by day she studied ancient artifacts and at night,

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Toni Hansen

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New Educational Content This Month

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