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Technically Speaking, February, 2006

From the Editor’s Desk

First of all, I’m very pleased to report that we are starting to see a little more participation from our Membership, in terms of contributions to your Newsletter, Technically Speaking. However, we still have a long way to go. Ironically, the portion of our Membership that has shown the most interest in contributing to TS has been our ever-growing overseas contingent. For example, in this month’s issue, we have an interesting analysis of the Sensex, the Indian stock market index, by Mohan Turaga, who is actually a Contributing Editor from India. Equally ironic is that, sadly, most of our Regions here in the States have not responded to our repeated requests for a brief article now and then, just to recap their monthly meetings and generally keep the rest of the Association abreast of what they are doing in their particular area of the country. We have even gone so far as to offer to provide digital cameras to any region that would agree to send us a monthly meeting recap now and then and a couple of

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

What's Inside...

From the Executive Director CMT Institute Launched

by John R. Kirby

One of the first events that I had the pleasure of attending shortly after joining the MTA several years ago was a monthly meeting that was webcast to a worldwide audience. I recall the speaker Jeff...

From the President’s Desk Problems at the MTA

by Jordan Kotick, CMT

This is a very difficult column to write. The first thing I need to tell you is that there is a major problem with our staff in Woodbridge. It is simply this….I have not had a complaint about them...

Bow Ties

by Dave Landry

My style of swing trading is momentum based. Therefore, in order for me to get excited about a setup, the stock must first trend strongly in the intended direction of the trade. Requiring such strong...

Sensex Crosses 10,000 Mark... Monday, February 13, 2006

by Mohan Turaga

Indian stock market index, Sensex which is the 30 share sensitive index of Bombay Stock exchange crossed the 10,000 mark on Feb. 6th 2006 and is closed at 10,173 on Monday, February 13, 2006. The...

Gaps that Give Up the Ghost: Positive Correlations and Covariance with Event-Driven Peer Group Price Reactions

by Mack Thomson

As a measure for sector out-performance, relative strength naturally highlights areas that are doing well in the stock market. When coupled with the fundamental screens that are commonly used by...

New York Region Monthly Meeting

Below are some pictures that were taken form January 17th, during the New York Region monthly meeting. This even featured Jordan Kotick, CMT, the President of the MTA, Steven Poser, Regions Committee...

Financial Words You Won’t Hear on TV

by Sam Levine, CMT, CFA

Financial people talk in shorthand to communicate a large amount of information quickly. After twelve years of listening to boring phrases like, “chasing yield”, and “way overweighted in…”,...

From the Executive Director CMT Institute Launched

From the Executive Director CMT Institute Launched

One of the first events that I had the pleasure of attending shortly after joining the MTA several years ago was a monthly meeting that was webcast to a worldwide audience. I recall the speaker Jeff Weiss fielding questions from MTA members in Lebanon and the UK as well as around the USA. At the time, it was my hope that this technology would someday be used to bring education classes to our members studying for the CMT exams around the world.

That day has finally arrived. Thanks to Barry Sine, CFA, CMT who designed and outlined the courses and MacNeil Curry, CFA, CMT; Jeanette Young, CFP, CMT; Jeffery Lay, CMT; John Kosar, CMT; Ken Tower, CMT; and Wayne Kaufman, CMT; who are the CMT INSTITUTE professors, and Jeanne Farrelly our MTA Web Presence Manager who taught us all how to use the technology, the virtual classrooms of our CMT INSTITUTE

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

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From the President’s Desk Problems at the MTA

From the President’s Desk Problems at the MTA

This is a very difficult column to write. The first thing I need to tell you is that there is a major problem with our staff in Woodbridge. It is simply this….I have not had a complaint about them or from them since I can remember. They have become, in my opinion, without a doubt, simply the most professional, courteous and efficient staff the MTA has ever had. There simply are no problems. And what a credit it is to all of them. If you agree, please feel free to let Cassandra, Tim, Marisa, Marie, Jeanne or John know. They have all taken more than their share of MTA politics since joining and it never hurts for us to let them know how much we appreciate the fine job they are doing.

The second problem is that it has been a few months since I have received my usual flurry of

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

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Bow Ties

Bow Ties

My style of swing trading is momentum based. Therefore, in order for me to get excited about a setup, the stock must first trend strongly in the intended direction of the trade. Requiring such strong momentum has helped to keep me on the right side of the market. However, I found that it often kept me out of stocks that were in the early phases of developing new trends. These stocks would make gradual changes (i.e., a distribution phase) and then would accelerate as the new trend emerged. I knew I had to come up with a pattern for these more gradual transitions or be willing to let them go.

Through the use of multiple moving averages, I discovered that they would often come together and spread out in the opposite direction as the market was making a major transition. That is, they would go from proper downtrend order—the faster moving

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Dave Landry

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Sensex Crosses 10,000 Mark... Monday, February 13, 2006

Sensex Crosses 10,000 Mark... Monday, February 13, 2006

Indian stock market index, Sensex which is the 30 share sensitive index of Bombay Stock exchange crossed the 10,000 mark on Feb. 6th 2006 and is closed at 10,173 on Monday, February 13, 2006. The rise of the Sensex to 10,000 level was faster than most people expected. The broader index Nifty, a composite of 50 leading stocks, also crossed 3000. Nifty closed at 3040 levels on Monday, February 13, 2006.

The situation is reviewed based on the four factors which govern the movement of the Sensex – Economic, Technical, Money flows and sentiment.

  1. Economic scenario: Indian GDP is expected to grow at the rate of 7.5 to 8% which is stronger than expected and a huge positive change from the 3.5% growth of GDP of the past. The question in the mind of investors is whether future growth will keep pace with past growth. Marc Faber, a contrarian investment guru and

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Mohan Turaga

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Gaps that Give Up the Ghost: Positive Correlations and Covariance with Event-Driven Peer Group Price Reactions

Gaps that Give Up the Ghost: Positive Correlations and Covariance with Event-Driven Peer Group Price Reactions

As a measure for sector out-performance, relative strength naturally highlights areas that are doing well in the stock market. When coupled with the fundamental screens that are commonly used by growth fund managers, the larger macro themes in play can then be further scrutinized to isolate which individual issues are behind any given group that is outrunning the broader indices. The big picture at present has its focus on semiconductors, broker-dealers, oil service, concrete, and steel.

In addition to gross margin expansion along with net operating margin increases, two quantitative filters often used by the growth gurus are earnings momentum and SUE, standardized unexpected earnings. The former is designed to elucidate  quarterly sequential accelerations in both revenues and earnings while the latter is designed to show companies that are showing an earnings surprise relative the Reuters/ First Call consensus. We now have a list of “glam rock” stocks that are leading

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Mack Thomson

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New York Region Monthly Meeting

New York Region Monthly Meeting

Below are some pictures that were taken form January 17th, during the New York Region monthly meeting. This even featured Jordan Kotick, CMT, the President of the MTA, Steven Poser, Regions Committee Chair, and Barry Sine, CFA, CMT, Seminar Committee and Audit Committee Chair. These gentlemen spoke about the current status and future of the MTA. The New York Region monthly meetings are now held at the new Bloomberg headquarters located at 731 Lexington Ave., between 58th and 59th Street.

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

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Financial Words You Won’t Hear on TV

Financial Words You Won’t Hear on TV

Financial people talk in shorthand to communicate a large amount of information quickly. After twelve years of listening to boring phrases like, “chasing yield”, and “way overweighted in…”, it’s time to bring in some new words and phrases. Here are a few that I came up with:

Alicrony: When friends from a previous life pop up to borrow money that will never be repaid. Example: “I hadn’t heard from Bill for ten years, but at the reunion I had to pay him alicrony because his home was about to be foreclosed.”

Amessive investing: Selecting highly volatile investments with neither a plan nor a discipline. Example: “His portfolio went way up, but when it fell down by just as much, I figured out he’s just an amessive investor.” Average down (-and-out): The act of repeatedly buying a falling stock until it goes bankrupt, leaving you with nothing. Example: “That energy company kept getting

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

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New Educational Content This Month

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