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Technically Speaking, February 2020

The month of March is said to come in like a lion and go out like a lamb. If we apply that to this January, it was pretty much the reverse. After months of nary a hiccup, the stock market growled its way into the close and in the process wiped out its early gains. It does seem that the market was set up for a problem, from overzealous sentiment to various valuation comparisons to 2000. Still, the real problem was knowing when. The market needed an excuse to do what it had to do and along came another deadly virus to virtually shut down the world’s second largest economy. And what better time to think about what we did right and what we did wrong leading up to the top? Did we panic at the first whiff of the Hindenburg Omen? Was the CNN Fear and Greed Index our kryptonite? Did we play along with record unemployment? BTFD? Or panic when the yield curve arguably inverted again? Iran? China (the trade deal part)? Politics? Plunging oil? Plunging copper? To all that, all

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

What's Inside...

President’s Letter

by Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

This month, let’s talk about maintaining and improving your personal and professional momentum – “sharpening your tools”. Stephen Covey, the popular and successful self-help author promoted a...

Resources for CMT Candidates

by Stanley Dash, CMT

Many of you are beginning your journey towards earning the CMT charter.  Others are moving on to the next step in the process.  And we know that there may be some who have experienced a...

New York Chapter Speaker Summary

by Tom Bruni, CMT

On Wednesday, January 15, 2020, the New York Chapter hosted Larry Connors, Chairman and Principal Executive Officer and Chris Cain, CMT, Senior Quantitative Researcher from Connors Research LLC....

History of Wall Street - Part 5 of a Periodic Series

by Bruno DiGiorgi

This is the fifth installment of a periodic series rerun chronicling the history of the street. The series originally ran in Technically Speaking beginning in September 2000. It’s Inauguration Day,...

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

by Kyle Lottman, CFA

On January 21, 2020, 20 members of the Minnesota Chapter met at Piper Sandler’s headquarters to hear a presentation by John Kolovos, CFA, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist at Macro Risk...

Top Technical Analysts of All Time Share Their Secrets

by Derry Brown

This is a blog post first published in 2013 on the New Zealand-based etfhq.com site, led by the author Derry Brown. That site is now inactive. The link for the original story is...

Member Interview – Greg Harmon, CMT

by Greg Harmon, CMT

Please tell us what you do professionally. I have a multifaceted career.  I manage money for clients in separate accounts using equities and options through a technical approach.  I run a...

Chris Cain, CMT And Larry Connors Announced As 2020 Dow Award Winners

by Marianna Tessello

The CMT Association announced on Friday that Chris Cain, CMT and Lawrence Connors, of The Connors Group, are the 2020 winners of the CMT Association’s prestigious Charles H. Dow Award. The pair...

NAAIM Competition Founders Award

by Tyler Wood

The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) invites members of the CMT Association to submit research to their annual Founders Award. The Founders Award is a research competition...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Cody Tafel, CAIA, CMT, Investment Strategist, Strategic Advisory Group at TSW...

President’s Letter

President’s Letter

This month, let’s talk about maintaining and improving your personal and professional momentum – “sharpening your tools”.

Stephen Covey, the popular and successful self-help author promoted a similar mantra in his 1989 book, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People.  The idea, or lesson, was to take some time, no matter how busy you were, to self-renew. Grow by refreshing yourself, by learning new things, and by enhancing your tool kit.  I’ll give you a few suggestions that can be timely in the context of the current market volatility.

The first recommendation is a book written by a good friend of the CMT Association, Dr. Andrew Lo.  The book I’m referring to is his 2017 work titled, Adaptive Markets.  In it, Dr. Lo argues the Efficient Market Dogma is an incomplete framework when it comes to understanding and profiting in the markets.  He advances a more complete framework he calls the Adaptive

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

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Resources for CMT Candidates

Resources for CMT Candidates

Many of you are beginning your journey towards earning the CMT charter.  Others are moving on to the next step in the process.  And we know that there may be some who have experienced a drawdown and may be reevaluating the trend in preparation for the next breakout.

This seems a good time to recap some of the resources beyond our standard texts that candidates will find useful in their studies.

  1. The CMT Program FAQs is the single best place to find critical administrative information about the CMT Program, the exams, the membership process, and ethics. The topics on this page include grading, fees, and exam registration.  The staff reviews and updates these regularly so they act as a ready reference for candidates.
  2. The CMT Association is committed to promoting the ethical practice of our discipline. Therefore, ethics are a topic for questions on all three levels of the CMT exams.  Having

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Stanley Dash, CMT

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New York Chapter Speaker Summary

New York Chapter Speaker Summary

On Wednesday, January 15, 2020, the New York Chapter hosted Larry Connors, Chairman and Principal Executive Officer and Chris Cain, CMT, Senior Quantitative Researcher from Connors Research LLC. Their presentation was titled: “The Alpha Formula Book and Quantamentals ” and was broken down into three sections:

  1. The three first principles that make up “The Alpha Formula”
  2. The strategies presented in “The Alpha Formula” book along with their results
  3. Quantamentals – Combining Technical and Fundamental analysis in a quantitative framework for better investment results

Larry walked us through the first part of his presentation which discussed his team’s book “The Alpha Formula – High Powered Strategies to Beat the Market with Less Risk.” The three primary ideas in this book include applying first principles to portfolio management, combining uncorrelated strategies in a portfolio to increase risk-adjusted returns, and designing quantitative strategies backed by inherent human behavior (which is unlikely to change).

The

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Tom Bruni, CMT

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History of Wall Street - Part 5 of a Periodic Series

History of Wall Street - Part 5 of a Periodic Series

This is the fifth installment of a periodic series rerun chronicling the history of the street. The series originally ran in Technically Speaking beginning in September 2000.

It’s Inauguration Day, April 30, 1789.  The “Wall” is gone, but the granite blocks remain as part of the City Hall building also located on Wall Street.  George Washington stands just inside the balcony of City Hall, recently re-named Federal Hall, about to take the Oath of Office.  At his side is Major Leonard Bleeker, who had been with Washington for the British surrender at Yorktown.  As the men wait, Bleeker, peering through the grand archway leading to the balcony, watches as the events unfold in the streets below.  Also watching from the second story window of his home across the street is Alexander Hamilton, future Secretary of the Treasury.  Though there remains little to show today’s visitor of this particular event, these two

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

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Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

On January 21, 2020, 20 members of the Minnesota Chapter met at Piper Sandler’s headquarters to hear a presentation by John Kolovos, CFA, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist at Macro Risk Advisors.

John blends traditional forms of technical analysis with quantitative methods and believes technical things happen for fundamental reasons. He cited factor trends as among the most important because active managers are focused on factor tilts and trends tell which ‘ponds’ to swim in. He discussed his 2020 price target of 3455 on the S&P500 and the process he used to arrive at his estimate.

The long-term uptrend remains well established since 2009, with 2994 as the lower limit and 3915 as the upper limit, with his target is the average of the two. He noted that we are closing in on the target early but will likely see the rate of change slow throughout the year.

Additional markets discussed included copper, which

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Kyle Lottman, CFA

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Top Technical Analysts of All Time Share Their Secrets

Top Technical Analysts of All Time Share Their Secrets

This is a blog post first published in 2013 on the New Zealand-based etfhq.com site, led by the author Derry Brown. That site is now inactive. The link for the original story is http://etfhq.com/blog/2013/03/02/top-technical-analysts/

My first brush with Technical Analysis was not a good one and I was left asking the question “Does Technical Analysis work?”  There was plenty of evidence to suggest Fundamental Analysis worked (Warren Buffett has billions of dollars of evidence).  But Fundamental Analysis really doesn’t suit my personality, so what were the other options?

Everywhere you go online there is another guru selling the latest TA system accompanied with confusing-looking charts.  I decided that if there wasn’t a long list of very rich Technical Analysts out there then I had lost enough money using TA and was ready to quit.  To my delight I discovered many successful traders and investors who had the track record to prove that

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

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Member Interview – Greg Harmon, CMT

Member Interview – Greg Harmon, CMT

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I have a multifaceted career.  I manage money for clients in separate accounts using equities and options through a technical approach.  I run a subscription service for clients that wish to trade their own account.  I am also an Assistant Professor of Banking and Finance, Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University.

How did you get there?

All of these roles have developed following a 22-year career trading and managing training desks at several Wall Street firms.  It started when I was laid off during the financial crisis and started Dragonfly Capital Management.  It was a consulting firm at first and then morphed into money management and the subscription service.  The teaching is the most recent. I began in 2015 on the introduction of a friend to the head of the Banking and Finance department.  We talked about my process for managing risk and that led to

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Greg Harmon, CMT

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Chris Cain, CMT And Larry Connors Announced As 2020 Dow Award Winners

The CMT Association announced on Friday that Chris Cain, CMT and Lawrence Connors, of The Connors Group, are the 2020 winners of the CMT Association’s prestigious Charles H. Dow Award.

The pair received the Dow Award for their research, entitled “Quantamentals – Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis in a Quantitative Framework for Better Investment Results,” a paper that demonstrates a unique approach to the application of technical analysis. They will be honored during the CMT Association’s 2020 Annual Symposium on April 2-3, 2020.

In addition to receiving the award recognition, Mr. Cain and Mr. Connors will give a presentation on the topic of “Quantamentals” during the 2020 Annual Symposium. Attendees will have the opportunity to learn firsthand about the development and implementation of this winning strategy, ask questions, and think critically about their own approach in the context of this new research.

Mr. Cain and Mr. Connors demonstrated that a combination of investment

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

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NAAIM Competition Founders Award

NAAIM Competition Founders Award

The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) invites members of the CMT Association to submit research to their annual Founders Award.

The Founders Award is a research competition that draws entries from all over the world in the areas of computational finance, advanced algorithms, tactical investment management techniques, strategic investment strategies and numerous other topics, all designed to further our knowledge of the active investing world.

The competition is open to anyone involved in financial services, including academic faculty, researchers and graduate students, investment advisors, analysts and other financial professionals.

Papers need to focus on describing an investment technique, its pros and cons and the market conditions under which it is expected to fare well or poorly, or should explore topics in active investing that are of broad interest to the investment community.

The winning author will receive the following prize package:

  • $5,000 cash prize and the opportunity to present the winning paper at

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Tyler Wood

Tyler Wood

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Membership News

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

  • Cody Tafel, CAIA, CMT, Investment Strategist, Strategic Advisory Group at TSW (Thompson, Siegel & Walmsley LLC)
  • Bassam Fadel, CMT, Associate Director at UBS
  • Sean Dillon, CMT, CFTe, Co-Portfolio Manager at Pinnacle Advisory Group
  • Dr. Panos Dantis, President of Certified Analysts (HACSA) at Hellenic Association of Certified Analysts
  • Howard Friend, CMT, Alpha Generator/Trading Educator at HF Systems
  • Matthew Wee, CMT, Investment Advisor at Standard Chartered Bank
  • Aditya Arora, Contract Based Derivative Project Manager at Alpha1

Updating Your Profile

Have you recently registered for an exam and did not provide your address or telephone number?  Please login to the website and enter your address as we use this information to determine which and how many test centers are needed for a test administration.  The telephone number is necessary in case there is an emergency at your test center and Prometric needs to contact you

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

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New Educational Content This Month

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