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Technically Speaking, February 2021

This month marks the one-year anniversary of the start of the 2020 market debacle. Think about how far we’ve all come since then: new highs, economic recovery, light at the end of the COVID tunnel and plenty of other things. We mourn for those we’ve lost and look forward to when our daily activities can return to normal. What the pandemic may have done is accelerate trends in innovation and massive changes in how we work and play. Think about that when you fire up your Sony Betamax and Palm Pilot. Does your computer have a floppy disc drive? It may not even have a CD drive, anymore. To quote an old French proverb, “the more things change, the more they stay the same.” The point is that the economy is always changing and industries come into and out of favor. So does debt. And hard assets. And entertainment. And travel. And real estate. You get the point. Don’t get stuck on yesterday’s trends. We are likely starting some huge ones now. This month, we’ve dipped into the archives for a piece written

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

What's Inside...

President’s Letter

by Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Short Squeeze Lessons – Technical Analysis Makes A Difference! For the last few weeks, the media has been mesmerized by the massive short squeeze taking place in the U.S. markets in 10 heavily...

Paul Ciana and Jake Damien Chow Awarded First Place in Investment Rankings

by Marianna Tessello

Institutional Investor Magazine recently announced its 2020 Global Fixed Income Research Team, celebrating the investors and managers who emerged from the early-pandemic chaos with winning...

Hong Kong Chapter Speaker Review

by Ananda Bhaumik, CMT

The Hong Kong Chapter of the CMT Association and Bloomberg presented “Macro Outlook with Technical Analysis – 2021” at their December 7, 2020 meeting. There were three speakers. Darryl Guppy...

Would You Pick Up a $100 Bill?

by Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT

There is an old saying that if you were attending a meeting of economists and you placed a $100 bill on the floor, none of the economists would pick it up.  All of the economists would assume that...

Fill the Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association

by Tyler Wood

Episode 2: Louise Yamada – Streaming Now Perhaps one of the most inspiring entrances into the world of Wall St., Louise Yamada joins Fill the Gap for a riveting discussion of macro trends as market...

Member Interview with Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA

by Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA

Please tell us what you do professionally. I am the Director of Investor Relations for a publicly-traded, mid-cap bank headquartered in Southern California. I’m responsible for managing the...

CMT Photo Archive

by Michael Kahn, CMT

This is an occasional series revisiting the Association in picture, just to offer a glimpse of in-person events as a reminder of what we aspire to in the future. If you have any pictures from...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Thomas J. Festa, CMT, Blockchain Developer at Stella Maris Capital David Lundgren,...

New Educational Content This Month

Nikki Yu, CMT brings her webcast presentation to our Video Archives this month. Although events have been slow lately, keep an eye on this space in the future for more recorded virtual meetings.

President’s Letter

President’s Letter

Short Squeeze Lessons – Technical Analysis Makes A Difference!

For the last few weeks, the media has been mesmerized by the massive short squeeze taking place in the U.S. markets in 10 heavily shorted equity issues.  The story has so many facets to it – here are a few:

  • Good stocks, bad companies!
  • Small Hero Retail Investors vs. Large Evil Hedge Fund Managers!
  • “Stick it To Wall Street – They Deserve It! They Caused the GFC (Global Financial Crisis)!”
  • Retail Investors Roar – It’s Not Just Institutions Anymore!
  • Retail Investors Prosper – Paying Off Mortgages, Credit Cards, Going to School! It’s So Good for the Little Investor!

Well – I’m not on Reddit’s WallStreetBets, but if I were to throw in my 2 Litecoin, I would suggest that we not get all wrapped up in the emotion of who is good or bad, smart or not smart, experienced or not experienced, or hedge fund or retail trader. 

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

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Paul Ciana and Jake Damien Chow Awarded First Place in Investment Rankings

Paul Ciana and Jake Damien Chow Awarded First Place in Investment Rankings

Institutional Investor Magazine recently announced its 2020 Global Fixed Income Research Team, celebrating the investors and managers who emerged from the early-pandemic chaos with winning strategies. The CMT Association is proud to acknowledge its many members and charterholders who were among the finalists and winners in several categories.

Notably, Paul Ciana, CMT placed first in both the Asia and Europe categories for the second year in a row, as well as securing the #2 spot in the US rankings.

See the entire Institutional Investor rankings here: https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/research/10844/Global-Fixed-Income-Research-Team

We’re also proud to acknowledge Jake Damien Chow, CMT, placing first in AsiaMoney Magazine’s Best Analysts/Commentators of 2020 awards in the Singapore region. Jake is a co-chair of our Singapore chapter.

Read the entire AsiaMoney award rankings here: https://www.asiamoney.com/article/27i6gralrq1bhg3whzzls/polls/brokers-poll/best-analysts-commentators-2020

As we head into 2021, the CMT Association is proud to see our membership and charterholders positioned around the world as knowledgeable sources of technical

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

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Hong Kong Chapter Speaker Review

Hong Kong Chapter Speaker Review

The Hong Kong Chapter of the CMT Association and Bloomberg presented “Macro Outlook with Technical Analysis – 2021” at their December 7, 2020 meeting.

There were three speakers.

  • Darryl Guppy (https://www.guppytraders.com/), author, speaker, frequent guest on CNBC Asia who is also known for his Guppy Multiple Moving Average and Count Back Line. Darryl trades his own capital and has the unique experience of trading both Western and mainland Chinese markets. He is also a Mandarin speaker.
  • Lee Zhao, CMT, CAIA and Emily Chan, CMT both from Bloomberg. Lee oversees the North Asia business relating to charts, technical analysis and data visualization. His market insights are featured on Bloomberg and he currently serves as Hong Kong Chapter Co-Chair and Admissions Committee member of the CMT Association. Emily specializes in corporate, commodities and education partnerships in Bloomberg. She is a CMT charterholder as well as a part time University lecturer.

The theme of Darryl’s presentation

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

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Would You Pick Up a $100 Bill?

Would You Pick Up a $100 Bill?

There is an old saying that if you were attending a meeting of economists and you placed a $100 bill on the floor, none of the economists would pick it up.  All of the economists would assume that if there were really a $100 bill on the floor, someone else would have already picked it up.  Each economist would think to himself or herself, “Since markets are efficient, someone would have already picked up $100 off of the floor, so there can be no returns to my putting forth the effort to bend over and try to pick up something that theory tells me can’t be there.”

Members of the academic community have commonly applied this same type of reasoning to the use of technical analysis.   The time and effort that a technician puts forth is likened to the energy and effort that would be used to pick up a $100

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT

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Fill the Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association

Fill the Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association

Episode 2: Louise Yamada – Streaming Now

Perhaps one of the most inspiring entrances into the world of Wall St., Louise Yamada joins Fill the Gap for a riveting discussion of macro trends as market volatility peaks and we witness the madness of crowds in 2021.

In this fascinating episode, hosts Tyler Wood and David Lundgren chat with Louise about her incredible career at Smith Barney (Citigroup) working with Alan Shaw, Ralph Acampora, and many others, as well as the past 15 years directing her own research firm, Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors (LYA).

Louise discusses the major themes that have shaped her invaluable research for clients over multiple cycles, including the real inflation not captured by current measurements and the sensitivity of various sectors and industry groups to the effects of inflation. With a global lens for secular trends, Louise offers insights on the relative performance breakout of Emerging Markets equities and

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Tyler Wood

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Member Interview with Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA

Member Interview with Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I am the Director of Investor Relations for a publicly-traded, mid-cap bank headquartered in Southern California. I’m responsible for managing the company’s communications with institutional investors, both current and prospective, and the sell-side analysts who cover the company. This includes authoring the quarterly earnings press release, preparing slide presentations for use at investor conferences, authoring the company’s annual report and proxy statement, and maintaining the company’s investor relations website. I also advise executive management and the board of directors on matters of corporate governance.

I am also currently serving as Vice President of the CMT Association.

How did you get there?

In 1999, I graduated with an undergraduate degree in Economics and landed a job in Atlanta at The Volume Investor, a boutique institutional research shop that specialized in technical analysis. It was founded and run by Mark Scott, who was Vice President of the Market

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA

Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA

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CMT Photo Archive

CMT Photo Archive

This is an occasional series revisiting the Association in picture, just to offer a glimpse of in-person events as a reminder of what we aspire to in the future.

If you have any pictures from seminars, meetings or after work get-togethers please submit them (in digital form, if possible) and include the date, location, and people in the photo. Better yet, if you remember presentations or topics of conversation that relevant to the current markets, let us know. There’s nothing like revisiting market history as it relates to the current environment.

From a Time Unknown

Ken Ward John Brooks Ralph Acampora

Pictured: Ken Ward, John Brooks and Ralph Acampora

For those of you who did not know him, or even know of him, look up Ken Ward. He lived and

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

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Membership News

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

  • Thomas J. Festa, CMT, Blockchain Developer at Stella Maris Capital
  • David Lundgren, CMT, CFA, Co-Host at “Fill the Gap” investor podcast
  • William Delwiche, CMT, CFA, Investment Strategist at All Star Charts
  • Nathan Rogers, CMT, Director at Polaris Wealth Advisory Group
  • Richard Elia, CMT, CFTe, Course Instructor at Holy Spirit University of Kaslik – USEK
  • Janine Guenther, CFA, CMT, President at Dixon Mitchell Investment Counsel

CMT

We would like to congratulate all the candidates who successfully completed their exams during the December 2020 test administration! We applaud your resilience and determination during this pandemic.

Standard registration is now open and will close on April 12, 2021.

Since June is a busy month for exams at Prometric, we encourage all candidates to schedule their exam as soon as they register.  Candidates have the option to take the exam at Prometric test centers, which are

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

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New Educational Content This Month

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