* Due to time sensitive submissions, there will not be a letter from the Executive Director or Editor this month. *
What's Inside...
Review of Basics The Purity of Price
by Martha Stokes, CMTThirty-five years ago, technical analysis was simple. It was the analysis of stock charts in the most basic of forms: the purity of price, the clarity of time, and the validity of quantity. Emphasis...
Optimal Trading Strategies: Quantitative Approaches for Managing Market Impact and Trading Risk by Robert Kissell & Morton Glantz
by Michael Carr, CMT & Robert Kissell & Morton GlantzWhen I test an idea for futures trading, I deduct $45 per trade for slippage and commissions. An old futures trader taught me to do this, and I assumed that an old futures trader must know what...
In Depth Tom McClellan
by Molly Schilling & Tom McClellanTom McClellan is the editor of “The McClellan Market Report” a comprehensive daily, as well as bimonthly analysis of market activity and trends. Tom’s work is characterized by a succinct...
Technical Analysis, and MTA Members, Gaining Recognition
Readers of Forbes magazine might have been surprised to see a picture of long-time MTA Member Robert W. Colby, CMT, on page 136 of the June 4, 2007 issue. It’s not that Colby’s work isn’t...
The Great Bust Ahead by Daniel A. Arnold
by Michael Carr, CMT & Daniel A. ArnoldWith a subtitle of “The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away,” this short book gives away the ending on the front cover. The interesting part, from a...
Review of Basics The Purity of Price
Thirty-five years ago, technical analysis was simple. It was the analysis of stock charts in the most basic of forms: the purity of price, the clarity of time, and the validity of quantity. Emphasis since then has been on developing indicators that would reveal more about the stock chart in an easier way. Many excellent indicators have been written in the pursuit of creating an improved method for stock chart analysis. In placing so much importance on indicators the art of reading price in its pure form is being lost in the next generation of technical analysts. In the early 1990’s a revival of price analysis study occurred when Steven Nison, CMT introduced candlesticks to western technical analysts. Yet even then, price took a back seat to indicators when it came to entry or exit signals. Recently, there has been a return to the mentality that all things about a chart should
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Martha Stokes, CMT
Martha Stokes, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the Co-founder and CEO of TechniTrader. She is a former buy-side Technical Analyst. Since 1998, she has developed over 40 TechniTrader Stock and Option courses and classes for beginning to advanced...
When I test an idea for futures trading, I deduct $45 per trade for slippage and commissions. An old futures trader taught me to do this, and I assumed that an old futures trader must know what he’s talking about since there are so few of them. After reading Optimal Trading Strategies, I now realize that there much more to estimating trading costs than simply following a rule of thumb provided by a voice of experience. A number of factors can influence transaction costs, including overall market conditions, order size, liquidity and the market where the order is executed. They present research to show that transaction costs average 87 basis points (bp) for listed stocks and 134 bp for NASDAQ orders. Large orders (greater than 250,000 shares) incur higher costs of 101 bp for listed stocks and 152 bp for NASDAQ stocks. No trader should be surprised to learn that during
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Michael Carr, CMT
Mike Carr, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a full-time trader and contributing editor for Banyan Hill Publishing, a leading investment newsletter service. He is an instructor at the New York Institute of Finance and a contributor to various...

Robert Kissell
Robert Kissell is the Head of Quantitative Trading Strategy, at JP Morgan. He has developed an analytical decision-making framework to evaluate alternative trading strategies. He regularly advises institutions on proper selection of trading algorithms and how to determine the...

Morton Glantz
Morton Glantz is CEO of Morton Glantz Associates, Inc., a leader in providing credit, strategic planning and risk management consulting to a broad spectrum of financial professionals and representatives of foreign governments and international banks in the United States, Latin...
Tom McClellan is the editor of “The McClellan Market Report” a comprehensive daily, as well as bimonthly analysis of market activity and trends. Tom’s work is characterized by a succinct articulation of an elaborate array of technical tools and barometers, and is invariably punctuated by insightful, informative and historically relevant anecdotes. Tom’s style of writing has an unmistakable charm, with touches of humor and irony, ever endearing him to his many readers. He is the son of the legendary Sherman McClellan and his late wife, Marian McClellan, both of whom were honored in 2004 with a Lifetime Achievement Award by the Market Technicians Association. Editors note: You can read Sherman’s remarks from that awards ceremony at http://www.mcoscillator.com/reports/special/MTA_speech.html, and also read a booklet that was given to attendees about the McClellans’ work at http://www.mcoscillator.com/reports/special/McClellan_MTAaward.pdf] Sherman McClellan is currently a member of the Board of Directors for the Market Technicians Association, and
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Molly Schilling
Molly Schilling is an independent trader and freelance writer. Molly has been a member of the MTA since

Tom McClellan
Tom McClellan has been editor of The McClellan Market Report since 1995, and is ranked as the #2 Stock Market Timer for 2016 according to Timer Digest. He is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan, who in 1969 created the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index. Tom was...
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Readers of Forbes magazine might have been surprised to see a picture of long-time MTA Member Robert W. Colby, CMT, on page 136 of the June 4, 2007 issue. It’s not that Colby’s work isn’t worthy of national attention, it most certainly is. The surprise is that Forbes would give so much space to an article about technical analysis. Forbes Senior Editor Daniel Fisher, CFA, wrote a fair and balanced article about trading ETFs using Colby’s relative strength strategy. The article also quotes another long-time MTA Member, John Bollinger, CFA, CMT, explaining some of the benefits individual investors obtain from using ETFs. Technicians are quite familiar with the concept of relative strength portfolios, of course, since we invented it! Colby always credits MTA Director Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT, for publishing (in the MTA’s own Journal of Technical Analysis) compelling data showing that relative strength portfolios consistently outperform. [I can’t find
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
With a subtitle of “The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away,” this short book gives away the ending on the front cover. The interesting part, from a technical analysis perspective, is that in less than 60 pages the author presents a coherent argument for the reasons underlying long-term cycles in markets and the economy. In Arnold’s opinion, demographics are the unseen 800-pound gorilla in the room determining stock prices. The argument is simple and straightforward Consumer spending accounts for 60-70% of Gross Domestic Product. Stocks, and other assets, reflect economic growth. In the United States and the United Kingdom, the biggest spenders are those aged 45-54 years old. The secular trend of stock prices shows a strong correlation with the size of this demographic cohort. Changes in direction of growth within this demographic cohort are associated with changes in direction in stock prices. Every major stock market turning point beginning
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Michael Carr, CMT
Mike Carr, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a full-time trader and contributing editor for Banyan Hill Publishing, a leading investment newsletter service. He is an instructor at the New York Institute of Finance and a contributor to various...

Daniel A. Arnold
Dan Arnold was a manager and then consultant with General Electric for fifteen years. He started and ran a successful manufacturing company in Santa Clara County, California for ten years. After being bought out by a larger company Dan focused on investments and understanding...
New Educational Content This Month
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May 24, 2023
The Four P’s of Investing
Presenter(s): David Lundgren, CMT, CFA
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May 17, 2023
Using Technical Analysis to Develop Options Trade Ideas
Presenter(s): Greg Harmon, CMT
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April 28, 2023
Using Market Timing to Enhance Returns
Presenter(s): Tom DeMark, Larry Williams