Technically Speaking, June 2013

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

We focus on the practical in this month’s newsletter. From trading psychology to trading tools and trading strategies, we have tried to provide you with new ideas that you can apply in the slow summer market. Of course, the slow summer market is probably a myth but we all need to find time to explore ideas and tools that might help us become better at what we do.

Trading seems to be the point where theory meets practice in technical analysis. Hopefully you will find the techniques and tools we highlight to be useful.

Although trading is often associated with short-term analysis, many traders analyze long-term data. In the long-term, stocks can move up or down just as they do in the short-term. SRC Stock Charts offer a long-term perspective on markets and we conclude this issue with a chart of Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index. The Nikkei ended May with a one-week loss of 15% but is up about 50% in the last year. Shortterm volatility can mask the relentless down trend that defines that market. Over the past 25 years, the Nikkei has lost an average of 2.8% a year.

Please email us with suggestions for other long-term charts to highlight the ups and downs of trading for a living. We can be reached at editor@mta.org.

Michael Carr

What's Inside...

HOW WILL THE NEXT FEW YEARS BE CHARACTERIZED? INFLATION, DEFLATION, OR BOTH?

During the annual symposium of the Market Technicians Association, April 2013, two of the world’s most renowned veteran marketRead More

Editor’s note: Dr. Jason Williams was one of the speakers at the recent MTA Annual Symposium. His presentation was based...

Read More

A TECHNICAL GUIDE TO THE ISHARES DOW JONES U.S. ENERGY

This report takes a closer look at the U.S. Energy sector, via the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Energy ETF (Ticker:...

Read More

THE SMART MONEY

While equities have made new record highs this month High Yield Bonds have declined, a classic warning sign that has...

Read More

SCREENING FOR TRADING IDEAS

Many traders use screens to generate trading ideas. A screen will generally be designed to scan a list of stocks,...

Read More

GEORGE LINDSAY’S AN AID TO TIMING

Ed Carlson has produced a video to explain a tool developed by George Lindsay and almost lost in the history...

Read More

ETF TRADING WITH BOLLINGER BANDS®

Introduction to Bollinger Bands®

Bollinger Bands®, created by legendary money manager and researcher John Bollinger, are one of the most...

Read More

INTERVIEW WITH CHRISTOPHER GURKOVIC, CMT

How would you describe your job?

I would describe the job as an opportunity to promote technical research and educate...

Read More

CHART OF THE MONTH

Read More

HOW WILL THE NEXT FEW YEARS BE CHARACTERIZED? INFLATION, DEFLATION, OR BOTH?

During the annual symposium of the Market Technicians Association, April 2013, two of the world’s most renowned veteran market
technicians, Robert Prechter, CMT, President of Elliott Wave International and Martin Pring, Chairman of Pring Turner Capital, shared their key insights during a moderated panel discussion with Ron William, CMT, MSTA, Founder & Principal Market ...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Robert Prechter, CMT

Robert Prechter is CEO of Elliott Wave International, an independent market analysis firm. He is also Founder of Socionomics Institute. Robert has written 20 books on finance, beginning with Elliott Wave Principle in 1978, which predicted a 1920s-style stock market boom. His 2002 title, Conquer...

Martin J. Pring

Martin J. Pring is the president of Pring Research and Chairman of Pring Turner Capital Group (PTG), a money management and sub-advisory firm, located in Walnut Creek, CA. He is also the president of Pring.com, the research arm of PTG, which provides...

Ron William, CFTe

Ron William, CFTe, is a market strategist, educator/mentor and performance coach; with +20 years of experience, working for leading economic research & institutional firms; producing tactical research & trading strategies. He specializes in global, multi-asset, top-down framework, grounded in behavioural technical analysis,...

THE MENTAL EDGE IN TRADING

Editor’s note: Dr. Jason Williams was one of the speakers at the recent MTA Annual Symposium. His presentation was based on the research detailed in his book which is reviewed below. To view Dr. Williams’ presentation, please visit http://symposium.mta.org

Dr. Jason Williams presented findings from his research into the trader‘s mind at the MTA Symposium April 4th and 5th, 2013. In his

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Jason Williams

Jason A. Williams is a Partner at Morgan Creek Digital Assets. He has over 15 years of experience as an executive, board member and investor leading companies through start-up, change, accelerated growth and successful exits. Recognized as a disruptive innovator and dynamic...

Keith Newcomb, CMT, CFP®

Keith Newcomb, CMT, CFP®, is a portfolio manager responsible for stewardship of publicly traded equity, fixed income, commodity, and real estate mandates on behalf of clients of Full Life Financial LLC, the registered investment adviser firm he founded in 2002. He blends...

Michael Carr, CMT

Mike Carr, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a full-time trader and contributing editor for Banyan Hill Publishing, a leading investment newsletter service. He is an instructor at the New York Institute of Finance and a contributor to various additional...

A TECHNICAL GUIDE TO THE ISHARES DOW JONES U.S. ENERGY

This report takes a closer look at the U.S. Energy sector, via the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Energy ETF (Ticker: IYE).

In recent days, IYE has quietly broken out of an ascending triangle pattern two and a half years in the making. From a portfolio perspective there have also be some developments worth noting. For example, the longer-term relative strength chart (vs. the S&P...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Jonathan Beck

Jonathan Beck brings over 10 years of buy/sell-side equity research experience to the table at J. Beck investments. He has previously spent more than half of his career working exclusively as a technical analyst on one of the most well respected technical...

THE SMART MONEY

While equities have made new record highs this month High Yield Bonds have declined, a classic warning sign that has often led to multi-month declines. Does it matter when High Yield Bonds are not invited to the stock market party? We decided to quantify these divergences over the past several years.

Here is what we found.

There are a number of structural reasons why...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Eric Leake

Eric Leake is a Founding Partner and Chief Investment Officer to Anchor Capital where he has served as Chief Investment Officer and portfolio manager for Anchor’s separate accounts since 1996. Eric is a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA), American Association...

SCREENING FOR TRADING IDEAS

Many traders use screens to generate trading ideas. A screen will generally be designed to scan a list of stocks, identifying the ones that meet certain criteria. For example, a screen might identify all stocks with an RSI below 30 as potential buys. Without access to specialized trading software or proprietary screening software, the capability of screens that are widely available on the internet...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Carr, CMT

Mike Carr, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a full-time trader and contributing editor for Banyan Hill Publishing, a leading investment newsletter service. He is an instructor at the New York Institute of Finance and a contributor to various additional...

GEORGE LINDSAY’S AN AID TO TIMING

Ed Carlson has produced a video to explain a tool developed by George Lindsay and almost lost in the history of technical analysis. For those unfamiliar with Lindsay’s work, it is important to note that Lindsay predicted market turning points months to years in advance. In this way, it is more similar to the work of Elliott than to a trend follower. While the...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the Chief Market Technician at Seattle Technical Advisors. He has close to 30 years of experience in the markets, and is a leading expert on George Lindsay’s market timing methods. Seattle Technical...

Michael Carr, CMT

Mike Carr, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a full-time trader and contributing editor for Banyan Hill Publishing, a leading investment newsletter service. He is an instructor at the New York Institute of Finance and a contributor to various additional...

ETF TRADING WITH BOLLINGER BANDS®

Introduction to Bollinger Bands®

Bollinger Bands®, created by legendary money manager and researcher John Bollinger, are one of the most popular trading indicators in use today.  Nearly all commercial charting applications include the ability to plot Bollinger Bands®, which allow traders to quickly assess how overbought or oversold a security is.

While there has been an abundance of information published on how to trade...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Laurence Connors

Laurence Connors is Chairman of The Connors Group (TCG), and the principal executive officer of Connors Research LLC. TCG is a financial markets information company that publishes daily commentary and insight concerning the financial markets and has twice received an award by the Entrex Private Company...

Cesar Alvarez

For the last six years, Cesar Alvaraz has written for his popular quant blog, Alvarez Quant Trading helping traders learn about the markets. He spent nine years as the Director of Research for Connors Research and TradingMarkets.com. Numerous strategies he created have...

Matt Radtke

Matt Radtke is a developer at Arrow Electronics and has 25 years of software development experience in companies large and small, including Hewlett-Packard and Bell Northern Research. During his ten years with a Boulder, CO software firm, he rose from the position of senior...

INTERVIEW WITH CHRISTOPHER GURKOVIC, CMT

How would you describe your job?

I would describe the job as an opportunity to promote technical research and educate investors about the many ways in which talented people are successfully using our craft. When studying the markets I think it is important to keep an eye out for research that you could possibly learn from. It is my opinion that a Technician should...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Christopher Gurkovic, CMT

Christopher Gurkovic, CMT, is an internal Market Strategist at ICAP/First Brokers Securities and earned an MBA from the Fox School of Business and Management at Temple University. These questions and answers are compiled by Amber Hestla-Barnhart, a writer specializing in option for...

Amber Hestla-Barnhart

Bio coming soon.

CHART OF THE MONTH

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)