Technically Speaking, May 2008

On the Campus

This month, instead of A Letter from the Executive Director and from the Editor, we have decided to provide you with an update from the MTA Educational Foundation. This new column is one we are looking to run frequently in upcoming issues of Technically Speaking.

The MTA Educational Foundation at Howard University

Fred Meissner, Charlie Kirkpatrick, and I, Phil Roth, all lectured at Howard University this spring. Prof. William Barbee, in the business school at Howard University, has been conducting a course in technical analysis for a number of years. The MTAEF has been assisting him with guest speakers. I have been giving a lecture in sentiment and supply/ demand indicators for four years. I spoke this year on April 22, using a Powerpoint presentation that the MTAEF developed. I have made presentations at many colleges and universities, including, among others Tulane, Cornell, Georgia Tech, Baruch, and the University of Texas, and have been conducting my own course in the Graduate School of Business at Fordham University in New York for six years. I am always impressed by the caliber of students at Howard, and their interest in the markets and technical analysis. Prof. Barbee helps generate the interest by asking questions about the indicators and the sources of the data.

Fred Meissner:

A couple of week’s ago, I had the pleasure of teaching at Howard University. I have been teaching a class at this school for several years, and really enjoy Dr. Barbee and the students. The class is scheduled for the end of the day and I almost always run over time because the interest level of the students is so high.

I usually teach the Intermarket analysis module of the course, but as always we had a fairly wide ranging discussion – Dr. Barbee’s students are almost always well prepared and are interested both in the material as well as the markets themselves. Because they are well versed in the fundamentals they keep me on my toes!

It is tremendously rewarding to teach a class in Technical Analysis. When I started in the business back in 1983 there were no such classes, and unless one was lucky enough to find the right books, or find a mentor, knowledge was almost impossible to come by. One of the reasons that I became involved in the MTA way back when was to help others learn and to spread the word. Readers may recall that my first big job with the association was as Regions Chair. It still excites me to see chapters I helped to form going strong, and now providing teachers for the MTA course.

All CMT’s, and older, experienced members, should consider volunteering as a teacher. It is a great way to give back to the community, and to spread the knowledge that has been so rewarding to all of us.

Charlie Kirkpatrick:

Professor William C. ‘Kip’ Barbee has taught technical analysis for many years as a full credit course in the Howard University School of Business. Kip is known for several research papers on relative earnings, value, and price strength and has been published frequently in academic journals. Howard University is the premier African-American university and is located in Washington DC.

As part of the MTA Educational Foundation effort to help universities in teaching technical analysis, I had the privilege of lecturing to Professor Barbee’s class this spring on the subject of price patterns. Approximately 30 students attended the class, the full number enrolled. The students were asking numerous questions and showed extreme interest in how to use patterns to profit. Indeed, the enthusiasm was so high, I didn’t get to finish the talk but ran out of time. Professor Barbee was thrilled, as was I, to see such excitement over technical analysis.

What's Inside...

The Metals Maze

Intermarket relationships between metals can not only give cues about the economic cycle but also lead the start of a...

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Arms Index

The Arms Index is named after Richard Arms. It is a market-balance index that measures the volume in advancing issues...

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Open Arms Index

A version of the Arms Index computed using averages of the components to correct for a mathematical problem encountered in...

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Must Be Present To Win? Assessing the Fallacy of “Staying Invested Or Risk Missing The Move”

Editor’s note: Market technicians are often confronted with the statement that all of the market’s returns accrue in a very...

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Stop and Make Money: How to Profit in the Stock Market Using Volume and Stop Orders by Richard Arms

Dick Arms has rewritten Edwards and Magee chart patterns and the basic...

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Los Angeles MTA Chapter Meeting 4-22-08

The LA MTA Chapter met at Il Morro Restaurant in West LA for its spring quarterly meeting. Frank A. Barbera...

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Would You Like to be Called Professor?

It’s hard to believe that MTA members have been involved on college campuses for the past 30 years. For perhaps...

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David Krell, CMT Chairman; International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc.

David Krell is the founder and Chairman of International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc. (ISE) located at 60 Broad Street in...

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New MTA Chapter: Columbus, Ohio

The Columbus, Ohio Chapter of the MTA has been established for professional traders, technical analysts and other investment professionals who...

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The Metals Maze

Intermarket relationships between metals can not only give cues about the economic cycle but also lead the start of a global equity bear market. Gold did not take much time to move from 800 dollars in Dec 2007 to move up to 1000 dollars. Now it is holding steady at 930. While Gold (Fig 1) and Silver (Fig 2) might be hanging tight, metals...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Mukul Pal

Mukul Pal, a technical analyst who holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the founder of AlphaBlock, a technology group focused on bringing the predictive mapping characteristics of AI to the market mechanisms that use blockchain to create an adaptive “intelligent...

Arms Index

The Arms Index is named after Richard Arms. It is a market-balance index that measures the volume in advancing issues relative to volume in declining issues. 1.00 is mathematically neutral, though the long term average is more like 0.85 due to the long-term positive stock-market bias. 2.00 means there is twice as much volume in declining issues on average as there is in advancing...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Open Arms Index

A version of the Arms Index computed using averages of the components to correct for a mathematical problem encountered in averaging raw Arms Index values. This is thought in some quarters to be a superior market-timing tool.

Reprinted from markettechnician.com and used with permission.

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Must Be Present To Win? Assessing the Fallacy of “Staying Invested Or Risk Missing The Move”

Editor’s note: Market technicians are often confronted with the statement that all of the market’s returns accrue in a very short time and therefore trying to time the market will lead to missing those best days and those big gains. This short study, although dated, demonstrates that the market also endures most of its losses in similarly short timeframes. Market timing can help avoid...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Ed Easterling

Ed Easterling is the author of Probable Outcomes: Secular Stock Market Insights and the award-winning Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles. He is currently president of an investment management and research firm. In addition, he previously served as an adjunct professor...

Stop and Make Money: How to Profit in the Stock Market Using Volume and Stop Orders by Richard Arms

Dick Arms has rewritten Edwards and Magee chart patterns and the basic principles of market analysis to include volume in this short book. It is a truly groundbreaking work which builds upon the previous writings of this pioneer of technical analysis.

Arms makes the argument that price describes what the market is doing, while...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Carr, CMT

Mike Carr, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a full-time trader and contributing editor for Banyan Hill Publishing, a leading investment newsletter service. He is an instructor at the New York Institute of Finance and a contributor to various additional...

Dick Arms

Richard Arms was a financial consultant to institutional investors and a private portfolio manager based in Albuquerque, New Mexico, until his death in March 2018. Dick wrote five books on Technical Market Analysis, focusing always on volume of shares traded, not just the price....

Los Angeles MTA Chapter Meeting 4-22-08

The LA MTA Chapter met at Il Morro Restaurant in West LA for its spring quarterly meeting. Frank A. Barbera Jr., CMT was the featured Guest Speaker for the evening. Mr. Barbera is the Senior Vice President marketing and Administration for the Wright Fund Management, LLC and Advisor to the Sierra Core Retirement Fund. A stock market veteran of 22 years, Mr. Barbera has...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Kristin Hetzer, CMT, CIMA, CFP

Kristin Hetzer, CMT, CIMA, CFP, is Principal and Founder of Royal Palms Capital, LLC, an independent registered investment advisory firm in Rolling Hills Estates, California. Prior to founding her firm, Ms. Hetzer provided discretionary portfolio management within major Wall Street firms’ Portfolio Investment Management...

David Krell, CMT Chairman; International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc.

David Krell is the founder and Chairman of International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc. (ISE) located at 60 Broad Street in lower Manhattan. We met in his expansive corner-window office overlooking the Hudson and East Rivers with a direct view both of the Statue of Liberty and the World Trade Center landmark. David has served in many capacities for the Market Technicians Association and along...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Molly Schilling

Molly Schilling is an independent trader and freelance writer. Molly has been a member of the MTA since 2005.

David Krell, CMT

David Krell is a founder of the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and former President & CEO, before ISE’s acquisition by NASDAQ. He was Chairman and co-founder of K-Squared Research, LLC, a financial services consulting firm; former Vice President, Options and Index Products,...

New MTA Chapter: Columbus, Ohio

The Columbus, Ohio Chapter of the MTA has been established for professional traders, technical analysts and other investment professionals who currently use or are interested in technical analysis. We also intend to reach out to those involved in quantitative analysis and behavioral finance, including faculty members at the local universities. Our main objective will be to provide networking and professional development opportunities for our...

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.

Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Craig Fullen, CMT

Craig Fullen, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the President of The Fullen Law Group Co., LPA, a law firm which concentrates in the areas of corporate/business law and contract preparation, review and negotiation. He was previously a Portfolio...