Technically Speaking, May 2019

Just when everyone pooh-poohs our beloved “Sell in May” saw, it somehow starts to work. Or maybe it was just that the S&P 500 hit resistance on waning momentum? Hmm. I, for one, do not blame a tweet. And I also don’t expect this series of coincidences to dictate my summer outlook. By the way, as I write this, the Dow is right where it was when it (and the Spoo) scored their golden crosses in late March.

The truth is that the markets have changed since some of our indicators were created or discovered, and we have to change with them.  That’s why it is so important to keep learning. And keep respecting your “stops” on indicators that no longer produce results.

What better place to learn that at the CMT Association annual symposium? This year’s is in the books, but even if you were unable to attend, you’ll be able to get a few insights from the presenters. We’ve got summaries of several of them in this newsletter edition.

If you were there and took notes, we’d love to get a few paragraphs of individual presentations or the seminar as a whole. Send them to me at editor@cmtassociation.org.

Also in this issue is our series of member interviews, this month with John Kosar, CMT, of Asbury Research. Joyce and Dr. Daniel Miller are back with part two of their series on copyrights. This is an important topic for any of us that publish any works, from books to reports to blogs.

We also pay tribute to long-time member Stephen Cox, CMT, who passed away this month. He was instrumental in establishing the Dow Award.

And, of course, we’ve got some member news, from new CMTs to available resources.

– Michael Kahn, Editor

What's Inside...

Copyright Basics, Part 2

In our first article, in last month’s edition of Technically Speaking, we touched on the need to determine whether certain...

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Stephen Cox Memorial

Longtime CMT Association member, Stephen Cox, passed away on April 6, 2019, at age 69.

Steve and his wife, Kate,...

Read More

Member Interview with John Kosar, CMT of Asbury Research

Please tell us what you do professionally.
I am Chief Market Strategist for Asbury Research, an investment research firm...

Read More

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: Behavioral Finance Panel Discussion: “Navigating the Behavioral Gap”

Panelists: Clare Flynn-Levy, Jason Voss, CFA, C. Thomas Howard, Ph.D., and Brett Whysel
Moderated by Rick Lehman

Behavioral...

Read More

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: The Power of Momentum

Speaker: Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT

Often cited as a tool that bridges the gap between fundamental and technical analysis, Momentum...

Read More

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: Yes, There IS Alpha in the Marketplace

Speaker: Chris Cain

The premise of Chris Cain’s presentation was to build a portfolio of ETFs combining several separate technical...

Read More

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: Cognitive and Emotional Biases - Mitigate or Accommodate?

Speaker: Dr. Greg Filbeck, CFA, FRM, CAIA, CIPM, PRM

Behavioral biases are issues we deal with when we work with...

Read More

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: FICC strategy and Intermarket overview

Speakers: George Davis, CMT and Paul Ciana, CMT

George Davis started with a brief evolution of the changes witnessed in...

Read More

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: Point & Figure Chart Construction – Tracking Supply and Demand

Speaker: Tom Dorsey

Tom’s career began in 1974 as a stock broker for Merrill Lynch, just at the end of...

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2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: Future Trends in Investment Management

Speaker: Stavros Iatridis

Stavros strongly believes we are on the cusp of dramatic changes in our industry. We are seeing...

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2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: Integrating Technical Analysis into a Fundamental Framework

Speaker: Blaze Tankersley, CMT, CFA

There is a myth that technicals and fundamentals should be separate, but Blaze’s take on...

Read More

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: Technical Market Analysis: Industry Perspectives

Speaker: Michael Santoli

As the opening presentation of the CMT Association’s 46th Annual Symposium, Mike Santoli presented his view...

Read More

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: The Role of Technical Analysis in Portfolio Construction and Position Sizing

Speaker: Louis Llanes, CMT, CFA

Topic: How do quantitative technical techniques improve decision making for portfolio managers in a multi-disciplinary...

Read More

“Ethics” Video Series Available from CFA Institute

CMT Association members know that the Association has adopted the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional...

Read More

2019 Annual Meeting Notice

The Annual Meeting of the CMT Association, Inc. membership is fast approaching and will take place on Tuesday, June 11,...

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Membership News for May 2019

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: 

  • Miguel Rito, Trainee Departamento Comercial...
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Stephen Cox Memorial

Longtime CMT Association member, Stephen Cox, passed away on April 6, 2019, at age 69.

Steve and his wife, Kate, met in Chicago in 1981, then moved to Brooklyn, where he landed a job with the Commodities Research Bureau. They married in 1983. While at the CRB, Steve became intrigued by technical analysis and eventually founded his own market advisory service, Heaviside Economics.

In 1986, they bought a house in Stillwater Township, NJ. He worked for Dow Jones Newswires in New York, and was the first technical analyst employed by the company. He retired in 2013 after 20 years of service.

Steve was instrumental in the creation in 1994 of the Charles H. Dow Award recognizing outstanding research in technical analysis. As a representative of the namesake Dow Jones and Company, he was part of the committee that defined the award and served as the committee chair for several years.

He became an association member in 1995 and was very proud of his CMT certification, especially since he had to do it in the “old school” way by writing an original paper for the Journal of Technical Analysis.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker.  Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

Member Interview with John Kosar, CMT of Asbury Research

Please tell us what you do professionally.
I am Chief Market Strategist for Asbury Research, an investment research firm I launched in 2005, and a Managing Principal of Asbury Investment Management (AIM), an asset management firm I co-founded in 2018.

How did you get there?
After working 17 years on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in the 1980s and 1990s learning the business, I took a job as the fixed income technician at BridgeNews. From there, I went out on my own.

Who was an early mentor in your career?
John Murphy

What book/author was most influential in helping you understand TA?
Edwards and Magee and Murphy’s books.

What do you like to do when you are not looking at markets?
I enjoy spending time with my friends at dinners, movies and shows. Lately, I’ve been re-learning to play the piano, and, of course, being with my relatively new granddaughter.

What brought you to the CMT Association?
The Association is a great resource for learning, career advancement, networking and making lifelong friendships.

What it the most useful benefit of membership for you?
Networking opportunities.

Contributor(s)

John Kosar, CMT

John Kosar CMT is the President, Chief Market Strategist of Asbury Research, a firm he launched in 2005.  John has more than 40 years of experience studying, analyzing, and forecasting global financial markets.  Asbury Research provides data-driven technical and quantitative investment research...

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: Behavioral Finance Panel Discussion: “Navigating the Behavioral Gap”

Panelists: Clare Flynn-Levy, Jason Voss, CFA, C. Thomas Howard, Ph.D., and Brett Whysel
Moderated by Rick Lehman

Behavioral Finance and its application was the topic of discussion at the opening session on Thursday. The panel consisted of a diverse group of asset managers, investment advisors and consultants with broad qualifications within the study of Behavioral Finance, including authoring academic journals, textbooks, and even CFA curricula on the topic.

Rick introduced the theme of the panel as “behavioral alpha,” which is a relatively new term. One can approach the topic from both a micro and macro perspective: micro being the focus on individual’s behavioral biases, which create a negative alpha, versus the macro perspective, or the combined biases of all market participants.

The panelists provided brief introductions to themselves and their work. Clare works with money managers who are interested in recapturing the negative alpha of behavioral biases.

Tom helps clients avoid behavioral mistakes, but also manages portfolios by trying to harness the power of behavioral mistakes people make.  When you base decisions about portfolio management on behavioral concepts, things become much more stable compared to the rational investor theories. Regarding TA, Tom pointed out that it’s the application of behavioral concepts.

Jason thinks studying behavioral concepts is an opportunity for all of us to outperform those who don’t. Behavioral alpha begins with oneself, internally, and then scales up to the market.

Brett said that all alpha is behavioral. Even if you’re using an algorithm to trade, it was designed and programmed by a human.  He referenced Daniel Kahneman’s two types of thought, fast and slow, and it’s the fast thinking that is most susceptible to behavioral biases. 

Jason disagreed with Kahneman’s classification of fast thinking, saying that it’s really intuition.  His book, The Intuitive Investor, studies the effect of people’s intuitions and the distinction between that and instinct, which is a very different thing.  Intuition activates the entire mind, as studies have shown. Behavioral finance is a model for how one describes their intuitive thoughts that come to them in a flash.

Some behavioral biases are very easy to identify, said Clare, and one can simply apply a decision-making process to correct them. But you also find behavioral mistakes in some people’s decision systems. In these cases, her firm evaluates why the client chooses to trade the way they do and how to they act on their intuition.

Tom pointed out that while we all admit that past performance is not indicative of future returns, we all choose money managers based on past performance.  Why? Because it’s a behavioral bias we have.  We all want narrowly focused managers who consistently pursue their strategies and have high conviction of their ideas. The investment management industry is a closet passive manager factory. 

As portfolio managers, we are all making dozens of investment decisions daily, but very few of them are tradable or recognized as a trade decision. Nevertheless, they play into one’s trade decisions and we should recognize their importance, record them, and evaluate how well your decision making performs.

Contributor(s)

Brett Villaume

Brett Villaume is Past President of the CMT Association, having served on the Board of Directors from 2014 to 2023. Additionally, Brett is a Financial Advisor at Equitable Advisors, LLC (member FINRA/SIPC) based in San Francisco, California.  Brett previously served as Director...

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: The Power of Momentum

Speaker: Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT

Often cited as a tool that bridges the gap between fundamental and technical analysis, Momentum has been mentioned many times at the Symposium, but exactly is it?

Merriam-Webster defines it as “a strength or force gained by motion or by a series of events.”  But there are hundreds of synonyms for momentum that could mean something similar.  They all basically mean there is a force behind a price movement. Based on the laws of supply and demand, price can increase if demand increases or supply increases. So, what would cause the demand or supply to increase?

Fundamental analysis considers factors that would cause demand to increase, whereas technical analysts are more concerned with price movement. And there’s a movement in price that occurs either faster or slower. We as technicians are more concerned with the adjustment in the demand and supply equilibrium that results in the price level.

Momentum strategies have been defined by past researchers. In 1996, in the Journal of Finance, it was recognized as major force that should be considered. Robert Levy did a study on financial markets in his 1966 dissertation and found five reasons why there was a disconnect between practitioners and academia:

  1. TA has no evidence of its validity
  2. Academics are most capable of evaluating the market’s performance, but don’t understand the data and don’t have stock market knowledge
  3. Practitioners are more concerned with profits, not statistical validity
  4. Conceptual evidence is better than empirical evidence
  5. There’s been a breakdown in communication between practitioners and academics

He concluded that computers will remove the breakdown in communications by doing all the calculations for us. Unfortunately, 50 years later, we have gotten even more bogged down in the numbers and haven’t really freed ourselves up to think about what they mean.

He then wrote a series of journal articles on momentum in 1967 that looked at relative strength of stocks over a 6-month period to rank them and evaluate performance.  He found that winners continue to be winners and losers continue to be losers. Levy said, “technical analysis could have produced greater-than-random profitability at less-than-random risk” for the period he studied.

Further, Levy said that stock prices follow trends and patterns that have predictive significance. This set off a lot of arguments in academia. Articles were published that called into question the validity of momentum and suggested it won’t work out-of-sample. Gulen and Petkova performed a study in 2018 that measured momentum over an 11-month holding period, but waiting a month to purchase stocks with high momentum. They then measured the performance over a one-month holding period and held the top decile while shorting the bottom decile.  They concluded that if they had a lot in the top decile, there were few in the bottom. So, there were broad market conditions that affected their results.

So, momentum and relative strength are not necessarily the same. You need to consider what you are using momentum for. Stock selection? Evaluating a stock’s performance? You also need to consider whether you’re defining momentum in a specific way versus other conceptions.

As we look at the history of the study of momentum, some of the same issues still exist. We need to continue talking about what we mean by momentum and communicate better with academics.

Contributor(s)

Brett Villaume

Brett Villaume is Past President of the CMT Association, having served on the Board of Directors from 2014 to 2023. Additionally, Brett is a Financial Advisor at Equitable Advisors, LLC (member FINRA/SIPC) based in San Francisco, California.  Brett previously served as Director...

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: Yes, There IS Alpha in the Marketplace

Speaker: Chris Cain

The premise of Chris Cain’s presentation was to build a portfolio of ETFs combining several separate technical models. Of course, this is not a new concept, nor was it my biggest takeaway from his presentation, but it is a concept that warrants constant repetition: keep it simple. Chris grounded his audience in the notion of “first principles,” or those things that can be observed about markets that are factual, not option-based, and require no backtesting.

He cited three such principles–markets go up, markets go down, and markets go through periods of volatility—which he used to build four simple, intuitive models capturing each. The models combined to generate the alpha alluded to in the title of his presentation; however, the more important takeaway from this presentation was the fact that the results were grounded in these critical principles of market behavior.

Contributor(s)

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA

David Lundgren has more than three decades of investment industry experience, with a focus on technical analysis strategies, particularly momentum and trend following. He is the former Director of Technical Research at Wellington Management, where he was also a Managing Director and portfolio...

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: Cognitive and Emotional Biases - Mitigate or Accommodate?

Speaker: Dr. Greg Filbeck, CFA, FRM, CAIA, CIPM, PRM

Behavioral biases are issues we deal with when we work with clients, but we also display them ourselves as money managers and investment advisors.  So it’s important to recognize whether or not the biases jeopardize the client’s goals.  Could we sit down with clients to help them avoid pitfalls?

There are two types of biases, cognitive and emotional. How do you distinguish between the two? What steps can we take to mitigate them? Or, should we try to accommodate for them?

Cognitive biases are limitations that exists based on our own heuristics — out experiences that drive our perception of things.  In many instances though, these can be overcome through training.  

There are two categories of cognitive biases: belief perseverance, which is clinging to previously-held beliefs, and information processing biases, which are errors committed due to human’s limited ability to think through situations effectively.

Types of Cognitive Biases:

  • Conservatism bias: when we anchor to a fixed view of things and refuse to incorporate new information. It’s very much at odds with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. To combat conservatism bias, you can either take time to understand why the new info is important, or to find someone who can explain it to you. A third strategy might be to ask how the new info might alter your objectives or forecasts.
  • Confirmation bias: a close cousin of conservatism bias, this is when you focus only on information that will reinforce your existing beliefs, and you discount or disregard conflicting info. Greg gave the example of legendary investor Warren Buffett, who purposely invited a well-known short seller of his company’s stock to the annual meeting as a way of avoiding confirmation bias.
  • Self-Attribution bias: the tendency to attribute outcomes to personal factors and assign blame for negative outcomes to other factors.  It comes down to people’s level of self-esteem — whether you can persevere even in the face of adversity. Keeping track of your personal mistakes helps to avoid self-attribution bias.
  • Hindsight Bias: the “I knew it all along” bias, where you filter memories to make it seem like you were totally on top of the issue. Great example is the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
  • Mental accounting: keeping separate pockets of money for different purposes, based on subjective criteria. There’s a growing acceptance of this, such as “goals-based investing”. When we assess these separately, we can mistakenly allocate investments to underperforming asset classes.

Types of Emotional Biases:

  • Loss Aversion bias: reluctance to sell an asset at a loss. Very easy to find in casinos. People tend to view gains differently from losses, without considering risk. You should work with clients to help them be more objective about past performance.
  • Overconfidence: attributing positive outcomes primarily to one’s abilities as compared to other inputs.  Otherwise known as a “superiority trap”.  Greg said that you can mitigate overconfidence by keeping a track record of people’s performance, which exposes the truth about their abilities.
  • Self-control bias: the ability to consistently maintain a strategy over time.  A great example is keeping up a regimen of physical fitness — people usually lose control at some point.  
  • Status quo bias: “if it isn’t broken, why fix it?” 
  • Endowment effect: when you own an asset, you value it more than what you would be willing take to pay to acquire it today. 

Finally, Greg offered some ways to mitigate both cognitive and emotional biases.

Contributor(s)

Brett Villaume

Brett Villaume is Past President of the CMT Association, having served on the Board of Directors from 2014 to 2023. Additionally, Brett is a Financial Advisor at Equitable Advisors, LLC (member FINRA/SIPC) based in San Francisco, California.  Brett previously served as Director...

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: FICC strategy and Intermarket overview

Speakers: George Davis, CMT and Paul Ciana, CMT

George Davis started with a brief evolution of the changes witnessed in technical analysis during his career. These included the evolution of technology and the blending of fixed income, commodities and currencies rather than having them viewed in individual silos.  He stressed the “cross asset approach,” which included a quote from John J. Murphy’s book on Intermarket Analysis, “The basic premise of intermarket analysis is that all markets are related.”

George’s process includes:

  1. Candlestick charts on various time frames
  2. Key supply/resistance levels
  3. Relative Rotation Graphs – leaders and lagging
  4. Trend and momentum analysis
  5. Timing of trades
  6. Relative strength, correlation and fusion analysis
  7. Cross asset signals
  8. Seasonality and positioning
  9. Communicate market view as clearly as possible
  10. Establish price target and stop loss levels
  11. Review recommendations – the post mortem

His current views and concerns include: falling leading indicators globally, falling economic surprise index, bond and stock divergence, and divergence of the U.S. 10-year yield to the copper/gold ratio. He sees 3.00% – 3.10% as the pain level for U.S. stocks and thinks we’re currently in a 2.30% – 2.80% range, though this could move lower as China inflation continues to fall which is highly correlated to US inflation.

With US equities he’s mildly bullish with the market bouncing in December 2017 off the trend line support of the 7-year log chart, and by the fact that high yield spreads which correlate 80-85% with equities are also confirming. He is also constructive on gold which correlates highly with the rising amount of negative yielding debt. Above 1375-81 he sees it targeting 1450-1500.

Paul Ciana also highlighted the rigorous and disciplined approach of the technical analyst who has to evolve their process as markets evolve. His neat definition of technical analysis is; “The extraction of information from market data into objective visualizations primarily through the use of charts and mathematics with an emphasis on investor behavior and supply and demand to explain the current and anticipate the future path of markets.”

His current views include a weak dollar, so his current recommendations include; long EURUSD, long GBPUSD, long GBPBRL and short five-year break evens. However, he does see dollar strength against emerging markets particularly 1-month forward KRW and 1-month forward IRN.

Paul concluded that as a technical analyst, you must have strong conviction with your calls, highlight your winners but also own the losers, and don’t forget – BE MEMORABLE AND BE ENTERTAINING!

Contributor(s)

James Brodie, CMT

James Brodie, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a Senior Learning Consultant at Intuition and a board member of the CMT Association with close to 25 years of experience trading in the financial markets. He was a director at...

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: Point & Figure Chart Construction – Tracking Supply and Demand

Speaker: Tom Dorsey

Tom’s career began in 1974 as a stock broker for Merrill Lynch, just at the end of the worst bear market since the Great Depression. Early in his career he read “How to use the Three-Point Reversal Method of Point & Figure Stock Market Trading” written by A.W. Cohen. In it he found the basic premise of P&F charting: “the Law of Supply and Demand, and nothing else, governs the price of a stock.” This was the motivation he had for founding Dorsey Wright & Associates.

Tom explained that what we do in the stock market is essentially the same as the forces that drive produce prices in the supermarket, supply and demand. Point & Figure charts depict the battle between supply and demand. He walked the audience through how one plots a basic P&F chart using the three-box reversal method. Tom said, “P&F charts shout at you when other chart types whisper,” meaning they only record price moves that have significance, compared to a daily bar chart that records every tick.

Relative strength is the most important aspect of Dorsey Wright’s research: it shows the magnitude of a price move. To the audience’s surprise, Tom said that they perform over 16 million relative strength chart comparisons every night, which they use to manage all of NASDAQ Dorsey Wright’s ETFs. 

Tom explained that there are only four basic types of signals in P&F. The best is a column of X’s that have broken out and still in X’s, with the next best being a column of X’s, but has reversed into a column of O’s. 

Dorsey Wright continues to use P&F the same way it’s been done for 100 years. They tried to use semi-log scale charts but abandoned it because it didn’t help.

Personally, Tom performs “probe trading” in his own account, which he said has been done in commodities trading for over 100 years. Probe trading involves finding a chart that looks good and initiating a position by buying one contract, then adding another, then raising the stop for both contracts to the next P&F sell signal. Then you keep raising the stop to the new sell signal until you get stopped out on the whole position.

Tom has a new book coming out soon called “The AI of Point & Figure Charting.”

Contributor(s)

Brett Villaume

Brett Villaume is Past President of the CMT Association, having served on the Board of Directors from 2014 to 2023. Additionally, Brett is a Financial Advisor at Equitable Advisors, LLC (member FINRA/SIPC) based in San Francisco, California.  Brett previously served as Director...

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: Integrating Technical Analysis into a Fundamental Framework

Speaker: Blaze Tankersley, CMT, CFA

There is a myth that technicals and fundamentals should be separate, but Blaze’s take on this logic is that “technical things happen for fundamental reasons.”  There’s been a secular change in market structure – the shift towards algorithmic trading is the driver blending fundamentals and technicals.

“Fundamental discretionary traders account for only about 10% of trading volume in stocks today,” said Marco Kolanovic of JP Morgan.  The market’s largest player, the algo, is 100% technical, so we need to make the algo our friend and understand it.  We need to know how algos work in order to compete.

Blaze notes the importance of volume confirmation in conjunction with price action when executing a fundamental idea.  He said: “Let the #1 analyst of all, the market, do your work for you.” In other words, use that information to your advantage.

We need to know the role algorithmic and systematic program traders play in pricing securities. Blaze advises us to “price it like the algo does,” using Fibonacci analysis to time entry and exits – this will help you to figure out where the algo will price.  Fibonacci retracements usually line up quite well with fundamental entry and exit points.

“Historical data, especially over long time frames, suffers from lack of contextual basis,” Blaze concluded. You must know where we are in the natural market cycle when processing historical data.  Use the Kondratieff cycle’s seasonal characteristics to help you in this work; you can compare time frames that are similar in order to make sense of your historical data.

Contributor(s)

Salma Abdulla, CFA, CMT

Salma Abdulla, CFA, CMT is a Portfolio Manager for E. Magnus Oppenheim & Co., Inc. She joined the firm in 2005 and is responsible for equity research and portfolio management. Prior to joining E. Magnus Oppenheim & Co., Inc., Salma worked as...

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: Technical Market Analysis: Industry Perspectives

Speaker: Michael Santoli

As the opening presentation of the CMT Association’s 46th Annual Symposium, Mike Santoli presented his view of Technical Analysis over the course of his career, explaining how the discipline has become more mainstream and relevant today than it was when he started.

The financial media often associates market moves with a news narrative, which is a source of frustration for most technicians. Compared to when Mike started in the industry, there is less “inside information” today — there’s still info getting out, but there’s less of a structure around the flow of insider information than before.  While there has always been skepticism around Technical Analysis (performing a search for “technical analysis” and “voodoo” provides hundreds of articles), technicians have very clear systems that explain price action much better than the narratives that emerge from the financial media.

An example of the slower information flow back in the early 90s was analysts’ upgrades and downgrades, conferences where one-on-one meetings were held, and the like. Reg FD helped a lot, but one could argue that more of the real information is in the price — at the very least, there’s not an easy way around it. It gives you a better perspective of what’s going on.

The financial media is always trying to get your attention. Because Technical Analysis provides “service level” market observations, such as moving average crossovers and support/resistance levels, it has become more and more prevalent in the media, which is a good thing.

But, while these market observations are interesting, they are missing the “why.” Within our profession as technicians, these observations provide us with an opportunity to help people understand what’s going on. The reasons get lost in the media, for the most part.

Mike noted that Behavioral Finance is being quoted more and more in the financial media. The well-known biases that affect people’s decisions are becoming more widely accepted, although technicians have been applying these concepts for a long time.

Within factors that have become very well-known and accepted by academics, momentum was at one time something that really baffled academics. They just couldn’t understand why it would be valid — there was a time when they tried very hard to disprove it, and now they have largely given up on that.

If there is any pushback Mike gets on his use of Technical Analysis, it’s that if you try to compare markets today with the past, people say “the market structure is different now than it used to be,” as if that explains why you can’t use historical information to evaluate what’s happening.

In summary, Mike gave the audience some advice as Technical Analysis professionals: 1) describe things in terms of dealing in probabilities; 2) provide a message of what the market is doing, as opposed to just taking about triggers (i.e., look at broad trends); and 3) use plain language to describe things and avoid jargon.

Contributor(s)

Brett Villaume

Brett Villaume is Past President of the CMT Association, having served on the Board of Directors from 2014 to 2023. Additionally, Brett is a Financial Advisor at Equitable Advisors, LLC (member FINRA/SIPC) based in San Francisco, California.  Brett previously served as Director...

2019 Symposium Speaker Summaries: The Role of Technical Analysis in Portfolio Construction and Position Sizing

Speaker: Louis Llanes, CMT, CFA

Topic: How do quantitative technical techniques improve decision making for portfolio managers in a multi-disciplinary environment?

Goal: to improve portfolio construction, position sizing and managing risk.

Problems with only looking at the Fundamentals 

  1. Fundamentals continue looking good but the stock keeps falling…you only later find out there is a hidden problem that destroys your fundamental thesis.
  2. Fundamental outlook deemed attractive but the stock continues down for a number of years before it gets recognized (i.e. it’s dead-money)
  3. The investment appears overvalued but continues to rally and you miss out on significant gains (you get out too early)
  4. A stock breaks out while the fundamentals appear horrible.  You then find out the company is making a huge comeback

The Lesson learned from being “fundamentals only” is that as an analyst, it assumes my analysis is smarter than the market. 

Louis’ Process centers around thinking about his thinking as a fundamental analyst.  How do you make quality decisions?  You need open mindedness, objectivity and accuracy.  

How do we achieve this?  In a multi-disciplinary environment, it’s through a 5-step process:

  1. Define risk (via drawdown):  will risk be relative or absolute? Relative is hard to implement.  Static volatility is easier to implement.  What’s your time frame? (Year? Quarter?) And what is your universe of instruments? (Equities, capitalizations, etc.).  Once you have these parameters, risk budgets can be implemented via risk units (the % of total risk budget allocated by opportunity)
  2. Select Factors (fundamental and technical), determine Hit Rate (what % of time am I right) and Risk/Reward of Signals to determine Position Size. Superior performance is determined by the level of skill of the manager and the number of independent bets.  Technical Analysis helps increase the number of independent bets. Time Frame, Type of Data, Type of Indicator are helpful multi-factor technical indicators with the goal to increase accuracy robustness and breadth.
  3. Standardize the factors in order to speak a common language between disciplines to lead to specific actions, what/when/how much, Initiate/Add-on/Reduce and Exit. 
  4. Integrate: give a signal score and risk score to determine how much versus what to invest in (both what and how much are equally important). Signal-to-weight algorithm is the process of converting the signals to specific weights.  Apply Constraints – limit weights at the group or individual security level.  Make sure it’s congruent with the risk budget. Then map your return outlook to determine return/risk to the weights.
  5. Implement (actions and execution): Use your Risk Forecast and Correlation Forecast to derive Derive Strategic Weights for the portfolio, next apply opportunity forecast to get preliminary portfolio weights, make adjustments for your constraints, and then monitor the tolerance bands (actual weight vs. target)

Contributor(s)

Salma Abdulla, CFA, CMT

Salma Abdulla, CFA, CMT is a Portfolio Manager for E. Magnus Oppenheim & Co., Inc. She joined the firm in 2005 and is responsible for equity research and portfolio management. Prior to joining E. Magnus Oppenheim & Co., Inc., Salma worked as...

“Ethics” Video Series Available from CFA Institute

CMT Association members know that the Association has adopted the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct.  The CMT Association website reads, in part:

Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct (Code and Standards) are fundamental to the values of any profession. Following a recent partnership agreement, the CMT Association and CFA Institute now follow a single Code and Standards benefiting the global financial community by setting high standards of education, integrity, and professional excellence. …

This licensing agreement makes all of the CFAI’s Code and Standards developed over several decades available to CMT Association members. …

In addition to the Code and Standards, CMT Association members have access to the CFA Institute’s Standards of Practice Handbook which contains detailed discussion and case studies related to the Code and Standards.

A series of videos explaining each item in the Code and Standards is also available to CMT Association members.  Produced by the CFA Institute, each video in the series covers a different item in the list of Standards, and each includes thought-provoking case studies.  These presentations are easy to access and there is no charge for viewing them.  The running time for each video is approximately 10-15 minutes.  They are an excellent way to stay up-to-date on this topic and a convenient way to review the ethics content for those studying for any of the CMT exams.

Contributor(s)

Stanley Dash, CMT

Stanley Dash is the CMT Program Director at the CMT Association, a global credentialing body. In this role, Mr. Dash works with subject matter experts, candidates, and the Association’s members to maintain and improve the curriculum, the test experience, and the value...

2019 Annual Meeting Notice

The Annual Meeting of the CMT Association, Inc. membership is fast approaching and will take place on Tuesday, June 11, 2019 at 10:00 am New York Time. Online proxy voting for the annual meeting opened May 9 and run through June 9. Members should have already received a detailed invitation with instructions.

The Annual Membership Meeting this year will be conducted on-line. Here is the link to register. The Annual Meeting webcast is open to all Members of the CMT Association.

Agenda

Order of Business

Approval of the Minutes

  • From the June 12, 2018 Annual Meeting

Reports by the CMT Association

  • Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP, President
  • Alvin Kressler, Executive Director & CEO

Election of CMT Association Directors for fiscal year starting July 1, 2019

In accordance with the CMT Association Constitution, the CMT Association Leadership Development Committee has presented the following slate of candidates for Director positions for terms as indicated below. Members should vote “YES”, “NO”, or “ABSTAIN” for the recommended slate.

Elected to three3-year terms beginning on July 1, 2019

  • Salma Abdulla, CFA, CMT
  • Akshay Chinchalkar, CMT
  • Jamie Coutts, CMT, CFTe
  • John Kolovos, CFA, CMT
  • Stella Osoba, CMT, Esq.

Elected to a 1-year term beginning on July 1, 2019

  • Glen Martin, CMT

Election of CMT Association Officers for fiscal year starting July 1, 2019

In accordance with the CMT Association Constitution, the CMT Association Leadership Development Committee has presented the following slate of candidates for Officers for a 1-year term beginning on July 1, 2019. Members should vote “YES”, “NO”, or “ABSTAIN” for the recommended slate.

  • President: Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP
  • Vice-President: Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA
  • Treasurer: Glen Martin, CMT
  • Secretary: Robert Palladino, CMT

New Business

Adjournment

Please contact Marie Penza, CMT Association Member Services Director, at 646-695-3008, or by email at marie@cmtassociation.org with questions.

Contributor(s)

Robert Palladino, CMT

Robert Palladino, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a senior foreign exchange trader for JPMorgan Chase with experience trading foreign exchange, commodities, and interest rate products, including derivatives. His foreign exchange career has allowed him to work in Hong...

Membership News for May 2019

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: 

  • Miguel Rito, Trainee Departamento Comercial at Juniscap Business Solutions
  • Michael Stroud, CFP, CMT, Investment Solutions Representative at Fidelity Investments
  • Michael Vinokur, CMT, Portfolio Manager at MV Wealth Partners of Aligned Capital Partners Inc.
  • Vishal Mehta, CMT, Independent Trader at Stealth Mode
  • Matthew Caruso, CFA, CMT, Co-Founder at Inovai Consulting

CMT Updates

Score Reporting ProcessThe results for the CMT Level I and II exams are communicated as quickly as we can possibly verify the results and upload the scores to our database. This process may require six to eight weeks. CMT Level I and CMT Level II exam scores will be emailed to the candidates by Prometric and will include a performance analysis report.

CMT Level III exam results require a manual grading process and therefore take longer. They are generally made available approximately eight weeks from the exam date. CMT Level III scores will arrive in an email from the CMT Association.

Exam Admin Issues – If you report to the Prometric test center and you find that you are not allowed to take the exam because your name does not match your ID, or your computer is not functioning properly and you need to reschedule your exam, please contact Marie at marie@cmt association.org right away.

If your name does not match your official ID please contact Marie now, so that the problem can be resolved beforehand.

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members who received their CMT Designation in April 2019:

  • Michael Fuetsch
  • Ajay Jain
  • Ian McMillan
  • Keith Medlock
  • Iossif Vodenitcharov

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

Marie Penza serves as the Director of Member Services for the CMT Association.