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Technically Speaking, May 2020

The joke running around the Internet is that this 2020 Leap Year had 29 days in February, 300 days in March and five years in April. It is already a year of biblical proportions, with locusts swarming in Africa, the global plague of COVID-19, and then murder hornets arriving in Washington state. The foot of snow that fell in the Northeast on May 8 seemed mild, but we can just wonder if June is thinking, “hold my beer.” Yes, it is a different world. Millions are out of work, yet the stock market is on the road to recovery. I hold my tongue when my online friends wonder how that could be. It brings me to a quote from former Association president Phil Roth, who said, “The biggest mistake a fundamental analyst makes is thinking a stock and a company are the same thing. The biggest mistake a technical analyst makes is thinking they are different.” But wait! There’s more! Let’s not forget that crude oil traded at negative numbers in April thanks to the destruction of demand in the pandemic and so

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What's Inside...

President’s Letter

by Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Greetings All! I hope you are all staying safe and well in this COVID-19 situation. The instability this creates is hard. There is no denying it. Of course, the flip side is true, too. In the wake of...

CMTs Honored by The Technical Analyst 2020 Awards

by Tyler Wood

The U.K.’s premier technical analysis publication The Technical Analyst recently announced its 2020 Awards celebrating the best in technical analysis, data and trading software. The CMT Association...

Chat with Gautam Shah, TA Award Winner

by Marianna Tessello

The CMT Association reached out to Gautam Shah, CMT, CFTe, MSTA, Founder & Chief Strategist at Goldilocks Premium Research and winner of the Technical Analyst of the Year title in the...

In Memory of Tony Tabell

by Ken Tower, CMT

Anthony (Tony) Tabell, 88, founding member and third President of the CMT Association, died peacefully on Monday, April 27, 2020. A lifelong student of the market, Tabell followed in the footsteps...

Remembering Ken Safian

by Michael Kahn, CMT

Longtime member Kenneth Safian, president of Safian Investment Research, passed away on April 9, 2020, at age 83. Ken was a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He...

Remembering Jim Schmidt

by Michael Kahn, CMT

Jim Schmidt, owner and publisher of Timer Digest, passed away on April 21. Those of us who hail from the southern California area know his voice well, as Richard Saxton at Channel 22 television in...

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

by Mahesh Johari, CFA

The Twin Cities Chapter of the CMT held a virtual meeting on April 21 in accordance with Minnesota guidelines for social distancing during the pandemic. The guest speaker was Mark Newton, CMT,...

Public Service Announcement: Pure Gobbledygook

by Michael Kahn, CMT

In the past, I have given seminars on how we technicians should write for and speak to the media. The emphasis was on plain language and, if jargon was required, it should be accompanied by plain...

Member Interview with Jim Erdmeier

by Jim Erdmier, CMT

Please tell us what you do professionally. I am a prop trader specializing in equity index futures. I trade on a short-term, intraday basis using technicals and order flow. In addition, I am...

The Sheridan Story

by Barbara Terry

Together, members and friends of the Minnesota Chapter of the CMT Association and the CFA Society of Minnesota are matching all donations to The Sheridan Story, up to $500,000. The...

Hurst Time Cycle event with Ashish Kyal, CMT

by Ashish Kyal

Ashish Kyal, CMT, held a training event in April on the topic of combining Hurst’s time cycles with Elliott Wave theory for better strategies. Ashish noted Hurst’s principal suggestion that there...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Jay Thakkar, CMT, Vice President & Head of Equity Research at Marwadi Shares and...

New Educational Content This Month

We continue to host a broad range of learning opportunities online, which recently included a presentation on Money Flows by the Brogan Group, as well as other informative discussions, including TradeIdeas and many more. See what’s new in the past month, and visit our archives to continue learning.

President’s Letter

President’s Letter

Greetings All! I hope you are all staying safe and well in this COVID-19 situation. The instability this creates is hard. There is no denying it.

Of course, the flip side is true, too. In the wake of this challenge, there are also opportunities.  I hope you are being presented with your fair share.

This month’s short note steals a phrase from the classic band Pink Floyd (take a listen if you can). Anyway, I’m renting that phrase and asking, “Hey You – CMT Association – is there anybody out there?”

Why do I ask this question? Well, I was recently speaking to a fellow CMT Association member and he asked me if I write content for Technically Speaking. I replied to him that I had been writing for months and had written on the topics of the organization, professional development, and our CMT award winners, just to name a few. He said

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

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CMTs Honored by The Technical Analyst 2020 Awards

CMTs Honored by The Technical Analyst 2020 Awards

The U.K.’s premier technical analysis publication The Technical Analyst recently announced its 2020 Awards celebrating the best in technical analysis, data and trading software. The CMT Association is proud to acknowledge its many members and charterholders who were among the finalists and winners in several categories.

BEST EQUITY RESEARCH

Finalist:         All Star Charts

Winner:           Oppenheimer & Co., Ari Wald, CMT, CFA, Head of Technical Analysis

BEST FX RESEARCH

Winner:           RW Advisory (Joint Winner), Ron William, CMT, MSTA, Market Strategist

BEST FIXED INCOME RESEARCH

Winner:           RBC Capital Markets, George Davis, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist

BEST EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH

Joint Winners: Goldilocks Premium Research (Joint Winner), Gautam Shah, CMT & Continuum Economics, Robert Zukowski, CMT

BEST MULTI-ASSET RESEARCH

Winner:           Haywood Securities, Aazan Habib, CMT, CFA, Market Analyst (now at Paradigm Capital)

BEST INSTITUTIONAL BROKERAGE FOR EQUITY RESEARCH

Winner:           Macro Risk Advisors, John Kolovos, CMT, CFA, Chief Technical Strategist

BEST

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Tyler Wood

Chat with Gautam Shah, TA Award Winner

Chat with Gautam Shah, TA Award Winner

The CMT Association reached out to Gautam Shah, CMT, CFTe, MSTA, Founder & Chief Strategist at Goldilocks Premium Research and winner of the Technical Analyst of the Year title in the aforementioned Technical Analyst Awards. Here’s an excerpt of our conversation, which touched briefly on his process and the awards.

CMT: What encouraged you to apply for the Technical Analysis Awards?

GS: For almost a decade now I have been following these awards closely, and I was impressed by the quality of the jury and nominations overall. In my previous role with one of India’s largest brokerages I did not have the opportunity to present my work in detail. Now, with my own venture, I can showcase cutting-edge comprehensive research in various forms for subscribers. We thought our work could compete with the best in the business and so we were encouraged to apply for the awards.

CMT: Can you describe your process?

GS:

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

In Memory of Tony Tabell

In Memory of Tony Tabell

Anthony (Tony) Tabell, 88, founding member and third President of the CMT Association, died peacefully on Monday, April 27, 2020. A lifelong student of the market, Tabell followed in the footsteps of his father, as well as his great-uncle, the legendary Richard D. Wyckoff.

He joined Walston & Co. in 1954 and became the director of technical research in 1965. In 1970, he left Walston to form Delafield, Harvey, Tabell in Princeton, NJ, where he continued to consult with institutions and provided research input to investment advisory operations. When Delafield, Harvey, Tabell merged with United States Trust Company in 1992, he became senior vice president of U.S. Trust of New Jersey. Tabell began applying computers to technical research in the late 1950s and headed one of the first computer installations devoted solely to technical analysis. He was a founding member of the CMT Association (then Market Technicians

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Ken Tower, CMT

Remembering Ken Safian

Remembering Ken Safian

Longtime member Kenneth Safian, president of Safian Investment Research, passed away on April 9, 2020, at age 83.

Ken was a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He started his career at Dreyfus & Co. where the legendary Jack Dreyfus served as his early mentor. Ken served as a director of the NY Society of Security Analysts, as a member of the National Association of Business Economists, and on the Executive Committee of Edward Jones and Co. He was a major shareholder and investment policy director for Regent Investor Services, which managed $3 billion and was sold in the early 1990s to Alliance Capital. 

Below is an excerpt from his obituary at legacy.com.

Ken was a financial analyst and asset manager who, with his partner Ken Smilen, pioneered the Dual Market Principle – the concept of breaking the equity market into growth and cyclical stocks. His analysis, prescient

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Remembering Jim Schmidt

Remembering Jim Schmidt

Jim Schmidt, owner and publisher of Timer Digest, passed away on April 21. Those of us who hail from the southern California area know his voice well, as Richard Saxton at Channel 22 television in Los Angeles used to interview him on air on a weekly basis. 

Excerpted from the April 27 edition of Timer Digest: Jim’s career began with a major Wall Street firm as a broker-trainee, where he eventually rose the position of Vice Chairman. Upon retirement, he purchased Timer Digest to pursue his interest in the community of professional market analysts. We have been fortunate beneficiaries of his boundless optimism, keen sense of humor and business expertise.

The following is excerpted from his obituary on legacy.com.

A longtime resident of Greenwich, he was born on July 14, 1932 in Columbus, Ohio. He attended the University of Hawaii while serving in the U.S. Army. After his discharge from the service,

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

The Twin Cities Chapter of the CMT held a virtual meeting on April 21 in accordance with Minnesota guidelines for social distancing during the pandemic.

The guest speaker was Mark Newton, CMT, President and Founder of Newton Advisors LLC.  Newton Advisors has provided technical analysis subscription services to clients since 2016. Mark has more than 25 years on the buy and sell side, including stints at a hedge fund, Morgan Stanley, and as an options market maker at the CBOE.

The last few weeks have seen a sharp drop and rebound in equities.  Mark highlighted some important warning signals prior to the drop, including:

  1. very low put/call ratios,
  2. weakening momentum as the market reached new highs,
  3. divergence in the McClellan Summation Index,
  4. divergences in February between the S&P 500 at new highs but not small-caps/mid-caps/equal weight indexes
  5. a breakdown in Treasury yields. 

The divergence in Treasury Yields can be seen in the chart below: Treasuries yields and equities

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Mahesh Johari, CFA

Public Service Announcement: Pure Gobbledygook

Public Service Announcement: Pure Gobbledygook

In the past, I have given seminars on how we technicians should write for and speak to the media. The emphasis was on plain language and, if jargon was required, it should be accompanied by plain language explanations.

Here is something you all should never do when you write your market letters or talk to your clients. This is real market commentary put out by a real professional market pundit.

“The daily Fully Long/Fully Short gave us a “Sell Strength” signal Thursday and we have a “Best Fade” sell signal implying weakness by Tuesday. The thing is, we have a new BUY signal from the FL/FS 1-day. The chop we got really doesn’t fulfill the predicted move and we could still have some weakness on Monday, since there are profits to take. I’m not expecting too much downside, however Too much skepticism, thank goodness.”

I left in the weird capitalizations and botched punctuation

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Member Interview with Jim Erdmeier

Member Interview with Jim Erdmeier

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I am a prop trader specializing in equity index futures. I trade on a short-term, intraday basis using technicals and order flow. In addition, I am currently the co-Chair of the CMT Association Chicago chapter.

How did you get there?

I got started as a prop trader by finding a posting on LinkedIn. I then switched firms twice and ended up where I am now. The first firm I really traded at was called Tower Hill Trading. I traded equities there and led the morning meeting group in which we went over technicals and news that might be affecting the market that day. After they shut down, I went on to Topstep Trader, where I traded futures. From there, I joined Helios Trading Partners, where I currently am. I trade remotely from home, mostly in Nasdaq futures, although once in a while I will look at

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Jim Erdmier, CMT

The Sheridan Story

The Sheridan Story

Together, members and friends of the Minnesota Chapter of the CMT Association and the CFA Society of Minnesota are matching all donations to The Sheridan Story, up to $500,000.

The Sheridan Story works to fight child hunger in Minnesota by filling the gaps to food access that children face during weekends, summers and extended breaks through school and community partnerships. With statewide school closures, The Sheridan Story has been urgently filling the largest food gap our community has faced. Since the coronavirus crisis began, weekly production has increased by 400% to provide 100,000 meals a week to children and families and over a million meals through the end of the school year.

The need is expected to continue throughout the summer. They need our help to prepare hundreds of thousands more meals to continue meeting the needs through the summer months. To learn more visit www.thesheridanstory.org/coronavirus.

The following link is a short video explaining

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Barbara Terry

Hurst Time Cycle event with Ashish Kyal, CMT

Hurst Time Cycle event with Ashish Kyal, CMT

Ashish Kyal, CMT, held a training event in April on the topic of combining Hurst’s time cycles with Elliott Wave theory for better strategies.

Ashish noted Hurst’s principal suggestion that there are certain standard cycles which are universal and can be applied to any asset class. Although many cycle analysts often complain that cycles vanish without giving prior indication, this can be attributed to the interaction of different cycles of varying magnitude. Ashish discussed how to sum up composite time cycles by identifying smaller and larger cycles that may be acting on prices at the same time.

In combination with Elliott Wave theory, time cycles can help traders forecast trends and predict plausible inflection points. During complex corrective patterns, identifying the maturity of the trend at hand becomes much more difficult. Hurst’s time cycles can shed some light here: being aware that a probable bottom will form, or being able to spot

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Ashish Kyal

Membership News

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

Jay Thakkar, CMT, Vice President & Head of Equity Research at Marwadi Shares and Finance Ltd

Matthias Neubrand, Conseiller Gestion de Fortune at Banque Cantonale de Fribourg

Christopher Cain, CMT, U.S. Quantitative Equity Strategist at Bloomberg LP

Akshay Chinchalkar, CMT, Electronic Trading Solutions Workflow Specialist at Bloomberg LP

Aazan Habib, CFA, CMT, Technical Analyst at Paradigm Capital

While working from home due to COVID-19, please take a few minutes to update your information at the CMT Association website.

Chapter Meetings: New Format

Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its varying effects on in-person gatherings around the world, our chapter meetings have shifted to an online-only format. All chapter meetings will be held virtually on the GoToWebinar platform for the duration of this impact, and attendance will be open

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza