Technically Speaking, May 2024

Hello readers, and welcome to another edition of Technically Speaking.

I’ve been moving lately (yes, present continuous form), and I realized I can connect just about anything and everything to the markets. 

As I was putting my things together, it started out methodically, with me knowing and labeling the boxes I wanted to pack. But as time went by, my approach became less organized and more haphazard. But most importantly, I got to go through my home and decide what stays and what goes. 

The same applied to my charts. Initially, they were meticulously curated into different lists, but eventually, there came a time when I was in a time crunch, so I annotated charts according to my needs and continued with the remaining work. Only later, when I had more time to look at my saved workbooks, did I realize that some charts were in the wrong place or were not needed anymore. This is an essential part of maintaining my chart health. I have to revisit my chart home and declutter it so it’s current. Sometimes, those random charts in between that wouldn’t otherwise fit in with the rest make sense in a completely different way and give me a better perspective. 

So, how long has it been since your chart home gone through a deep clean? 

This month’s issue is all about the power of information. We have multiple updates about the regional committee meetings across the globe. Sometimes there’s a bre akout, where the price consolidates above the area of resistance and only follows through after trading above the resistance for a while. Well, the follow-through in our in-person committee meetings is in play, and how! We have updates coming in from Singapore, India , UAE, and the United States. If you haven’t already, keep an eye on your mail inbox because we have events lined up that will make a chartist trend with joy! For all of you wondering, you can check out the events calendar on the website to check out what’s happening around you. 

Until next time, think Technically!

Rashmi Bhatnagar

Editor

What's Inside...

Featuring Gina Martin Adams, CMT, CFA and Ron William, CMT, CFTe
...
Read More

It was a phenomenal local chapter meeting at Ahmedabad on 25th April. The trading community, CMT candidates in the program,...

Read More

Electric Vehicles and the Months Ahead

 TSLADaily Chart for Tesla

 

Depending on...

Read More

Fill The Gap Episode Thirty-Eight, Live from CMT 2024 Summit Dubai with Frank Teixeira, CMT, CFA & David Lundgren, CMT, CFA

Listen above, or subscribe on your favorite podcast service and never miss an update!

...
Read More

Congratulations to New Charterholders

Celebrating Success: 22 New Chartered Market Technicians Earn Coveted Designation

We are thrilled to announce the achievement of 22 individuals...

Read More

Singapore Chapter Meeting

Featuring Gina Martin Adams, CMT, CFA and Ron William, CMT, CFTe
The Singapore CMT chapter recently held their meeting on 7th May. Despite their busy schedules, Gina and Ron both agreed to be the keynote speakers for our meeting.
Due to the limited capacity of the meeting venue, the number of registrants had to be limited and slots were taken up fast. However, due to overwhelming requests, further logistical planning and coordination was needed.

With the help of one of our member volunteers, Chua Wei Ren, we managed to get more seats to accommodate our attendees.

With our speakers and some members arriving earlier, they took the time to catch up with each other and also introduced themselves and what they did on a daily basis at work.

Very promptly, Jake Chow, our chapter co-chair, kick started the event by giving a short welcome speech and also introduced both our speakers.
Gina shared first, focusing on different models built by her and her team at Bloomberg.
While she dropped a lot of interesting insights that evening, what particularly stood out for me was her sharing that she and her team are starting to use AI to develop a way of tracking transcript sentiment.
Sentiment tracking is not new in the discipline of Technical Analysis. It started out mostly by looking at the greed and fear levels of the broad market. Over time this shifted to tracking trending words either on Google or FinTweets.
However, to apply sentiment tracking to earning transcripts is definitely a fresh and novel idea!
Despite being on the road for quite some time and having already spent a full day presenting at Bloomberg’s Asset Allocation day, Gina’s passionate and insightful sharing with the Singapore Chapter could be felt by the attendees.
Ron shared next, his topic being ” Seeking Alpha in a VUCA World ”.
Ron’s combined his expertise in providing advisory and mental performance, giving our attendees a fresh twist in approaching the markets. He started off with a cheeky question on ‘Nature’ versus ‘Nurture’.
As his sharing went deeper, he also shared with us the importance of building a mental framework and along with using a checklist to help us keep track of our mental state throughout one’s analysis and trading process.
While behavioural finance is generally a new topic in the academia world, cognitive biases are definitely not new to the practice of Technical Analysis.

Yet, the mental framework model is one that is rarely talked about and Ron definitely helped us approach the topic in an easy manner.

At the end of the sharing session, the attendees furthered their questions and discussions over dinner and drinks that were catered for.

If not for the fact that the office lights were starting to turn off, I am sure, the sharing and networking session would have gone well into the night.
All throughout, our attendees were attentive and engrossed in the sharings by both Gina and Ron, as evidenced by the photos taken. Further, there were multiple requests made for the content of our speakers to be made available.

At the end of a long work-day, I left the chapter meeting feeling more refreshed and energised. And I have the passion and energy of our speakers and members to thank for that!

Thank you Gina and Ron once again for sharing so passionately your insights. Thank you to the Singapore CMT Chapter committee for being so eager in helping and making this meeting a success.

I definitely am looking forward to the next one!

Contributor(s)

Isaac Lim, CMT, CFTe

Isaac Lim, CMT, CFTe is currently the Chief Market Technician at Everest Fortune Group. For his current and previous roles, he provides reactionary trading strategies and market insights on a daily basis to leading buy-side names and institutions. He has developed a...

Gina Martin Adams, CMT, CFA

Gina Martin Adams, CMT, CFA, is the Global Head of Portfolio Strategy and Chief Equity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on markets, industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional Service at BI. Gina...

Ahmedabad Chapter Meeting

It was a phenomenal local chapter meeting at Ahmedabad on 25th April. The trading community, CMT candidates in the program, and several shareholders from Ahmedabad had a gala time learning and interacting with each other. The event started with Vipul Ramaiya’s presentation, which provided an effective strategy for trading pullbacks. He discussed how the risk-reward is more favorable in this trend-following strategy. The next was a brief history of the CMT association by our Asia Pacific head, Mr Joel Pannikot. He further highlighted how the founding members have had the sole agenda of helping each other out and promoting the discipline of Technical Analysis globally. He appealed to the CMT members and candidates in the program to be the most sought-after professionals for trading and investing in the community. The next was a presentation on inter-market analysis by Vinay Rajani, CMT. He enlightened us about how various asset classes are interrelated and how one can effectively deploy these Intermarket strategies for effective trading outcomes. The following presentation was by Mr. Kush Ghodasara who briefed us about the power of networking. He gave a vote of thanks to all speakers and also informed us about future events by the Ahmedabad chapter.

Contributor(s)

Vipul Ramaiya, CMT

Vipul Ramaiya is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) with over ten years of extensive experience in capital market operations, technical analysis, portfolio management, and financial analytics. Currently, he serves as the Managing Director at Xcelcap Investment Research Pvt Ltd., where his role...

Vinay Rajani, CMT

Mr. Vinay Rajani is a CMT charter holder and M.B.A. He has more than 16 years of rich experience in the Financial Markets. He is born and brought up in Ahmadabad, Gujarat, India. He has been working as a Senior Technical and...

Kush Ghodasara, CMT, CFP

Kush Ghodasara, CMT, CFP is the Proprietor of ‎LuvKush FinServe, a Gujarat Based Financial service house which deals into Research of Equity markets, Research Advisory and Financial Planning consultancy.   Kush Ghodasara is registered with SEBI under Research Analyst Regulations Act 2014....

Electric Vehicles and the Months Ahead

 TSLADaily Chart for Tesla

 

Depending on how you consume your stock market related news, you may have seen that Tesla was up ~12% yesterday. Tesla was one of the darlings of 2023, advancing close to 130% for the year. Year-to-date, however, the stock is down ~35% – yes, even after accounting for yesterday’s ~12% advance.

Given how beat up the stock has been lately, some might think it is a good idea to buy it while it’s down. You know, “buy low so you can sell high”. If you are a regular reader of the Chart Advisor, you may already see enough evidence on the chart. Well, stated differently, there is no evidence on the chart that buying TSLA here is a good idea. You may have hope or a general belief that TSLA will rise between now and whenever you plan to sell (which could arguably be years into the future), but when we are managing money for our clients we do not make decisions based on our hopes or beliefs. We believe in the fundamental laws of supply and demand. We want to see evidence that there is demand for the stock. Right now, all we see is an abundant supply of TSLA with not much demand.

 

RIVN?

Daily Chart for Rivian

The daily chart for Rivian, one of Tesla’s rivals, reminds us why we would discourage anyone from buying a stock just because it is a bit beaten up. 

 

After the initial fanfare of Rivian’s public offering, this stock has crumbled, falling ~91% from the initial offering price or ~95% from the highs. Even if you did not buy at either of those prices, investing in this stock has been “dead money” for the better part of two years. There is no evidence that this stock is in demand.

 

Having said that, there is a stark difference between Rivian and Tesla. So, to be clear, I’m not comparing their stocks. RIVN is simply being used to demonstrate that a stock can be down for years. Why buy a stock when there is no evidence that there is demand for it; for it is demand that will push the price up.

 

By the way, if you are considering an electric vehicle, one look at RIVN’s stock chart suggests that you might not want to buy a Rivian. If there is no demand for the stock, it might be indicative that there is no demand for the vehicles. That, in turn, might put solvency into question.

 

Presidential Years

Historical Comparison of the S&P 500 for Presidential Election Years since 1976

 

Switching topics to politics, because who doesn’t enjoy talking politics, let’s take a look at the US stock market performance (as measured by the S&P 500) during Presidential election years.

 

Chart 3 shows the S&P 500’s performance for every Presidential election year since 1976. Why 1976? Because that is when I was born.

 

If we do the math, the average return for these years is ~6.93%. Keep in mind that, through Wednesday, the S&P 500 is up ~6.91% so far this year. 

 

However, to be fair, let’s remove the two recessionary years of 2000 and 2008 as those years were a bit extreme. Doing so pushes the average return to ~13.24%. 

 

However, if we remove the two worst years, we should probably remove the two best years too – especially 1980. So, removing the two worst years and the two best years gives us an average return of ~10.31% for the S&P 500.

 

May thru October

Historical Comparison of the S&P 500 for Presidential Election Years since 1976 for May through November

Having looked at the full year data, I’m really curious to know about the second half of the year. However, since the US elections are in early November, and since April is almost over, I’m really curious to know if there is a trend or a central tendency for May through October. That data is displayed on Chart 4.

 

For the period of May 1st through October 31st of the Presidential election years since 1976, the average return for the S&P 500 is ~1.498%. If we remove just the two recessionary years, the average for this six month period is ~5.83%. However, if we remove the two best and the two worst years, the average is ~2.67%.

 

While I like the idea of removing the outliers, and only looking at the “modern” era, when we look at these years in this manner, we are only looking at 8 years. That’s not a very good sample size.

 

Without the Outliers

Historical Comparison of the S&P 500 for Presidential Election Years since 1956 for May through November without the two best and two worst years.

This brings us to Chart 5. If we remove those two best and two worst years, but we expand the data to 1956 – which (I believe) is the first presidential election year since the creation of the S&P 500 – we get data as shown on Chart 5.

 

If we then do the math for these 13 presidential election years (still not a great sample size, but it’s certainly better than 8), we get an average return for the period of May 1st through October 31st of only ~2.83%. 

 

In conclusion, you might want to review your expectations for what to expect in the stock market over the next six months. This is also a great example of why we practice an active approach to stock & sector selection for, while the next six months might yield muted broad market returns, that does not mean all stocks and all sectors will offer the same.

Contributor(s)

C. Theodore Hicks II, CFP, CKA, CMT

Ted Hicks is the Founder, CEO & Chief Investment Officer of Hicks & Associates Wealth Management, an SEC registered investment advisor. Hicks’ rules-based asset management approach is focused on minimizing drawdowns while seeking to maximize gains. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn.

Fill The Gap Episode Thirty-Eight, Live from CMT 2024 Summit Dubai with Frank Teixeira, CMT, CFA & David Lundgren, CMT, CFA

Listen above, or subscribe on your favorite podcast service and never miss an update!

Resources

Give us a shout:
@dlundgren3333 or https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-lundgren-cmt-cfa-63b73b/
@_TBone_Pickens or https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-wood-cmt-b8b0902/
@CMTAssociation or https://www.linkedin.com/company/cmtassociation

Summary

This episode of Fill the Gap features a live Fireside Chat with special guests Frank Teixeira, CMT, CFA & David Lundgren, CMT, CFA moderated by Tyler Wood, CMT. Recorded at the CMT 2024 Summit in Dubai, UAE on February 29, 2024 inside the Museum of the Future.

In this special live release of Fill the Gap, Frank Teixeira, CMT, CFA, and David Lundgren, CMT CFA will share insights from decades of institutional portfolio management experience on how Wall St. utilizes technical analysis to understand market behavior, fund flows, positioning, price action, and the character and direction of public markets.

This fireside chat on Trend-Following Perspectives brought the 2024 CMT Summit to a conclusion with a deep dive and unique perspective on the use of technical analysis in institutional portfolio management. Moderated by Tyler Wood, CMT, these former colleagues explore what it takes to be an effective contrarian investor, how to communicate technical concepts to a broad audience, and how the discipline has evolved. Stylistically different, both gentlemen continue to thrive through multiple market cycles. Whether as a systematic or more discretionary portfolio manager, trend-following is at the core of their investment approach.

We hope you enjoy episode #38 of Fill the Gap and garner evergreen lessons of this “simple but not easy” style of investing.

Fill the Gap, hosted by David Lundgren, CMT, CFA and Tyler Wood, CMT brings veteran market analysts and money managers onto a monthly podcast.

For complete show notes of every episode, visit: https://cmtassociation.org/development/podcasts/

Contributor(s)

Tyler Wood, CMT

Tyler Wood serves as Managing Director of CMT Association with the aim of elevating investors’ mastery and skill in mitigating market risk and maximizing return in capital markets through a rigorous credentialing process, professional ethics, and continuous education. He is a seasoned business...

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA

David Lundgren has more than three decades of investment industry experience, with a focus on technical analysis strategies, particularly momentum and trend following. He is the former Director of Technical Research at Wellington Management, where he was also a Managing Director and portfolio...

Frank Teixeira, CMT, CFA

Frank Teixeira served as a Partner, Portfolio Manager, and Director of Technical Research for Wellington Management in Boston, Massachusetts, for more than 20 years. After retiring from Wellington in 2018, Frank continued his investing passion as the managing partner of Teixeira Partners, a family...

Congratulations to New Charterholders

Celebrating Success: 22 New Chartered Market Technicians Earn Coveted Designation

We are thrilled to announce the achievement of 22 individuals who have recently earned their Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation. This prestigious accomplishment signifies a remarkable dedication to the field of technical analysis and investment strategy.

The Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation is a globally recognized certification awarded by the CMT Association. It reflects a deep understanding of market dynamics, proficiency in technical analysis, and a commitment to upholding the highest standards of professional conduct.

These newly certified individuals have demonstrated their expertise in interpreting market trends, identifying patterns, and making informed investment decisions based on rigorous analysis. Their attainment of the CMT designation underscores their commitment to excellence and distinguishes them as leaders in the financial industry.

In an ever-evolving market landscape, the expertise provided by Chartered Market Technicians is invaluable. Their proficiency in analyzing market data and identifying emerging trends equips them to navigate complex financial markets with confidence and precision.

We extend our heartfelt congratulations to these 22 individuals on their remarkable achievement. Their dedication, perseverance, and expertise serve as a testament to the significance of the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation in today’s financial world.

Please join us in celebrating their success and wishing them continued excellence in their careers as Chartered Market Technicians.

  1. Ang, Perry Ervine 
  2. Begole, Web
  3. Bin Azizi, Amirul Rusydy
  4. Caylor, Samuel
  5. Chang, Brian (Yuyen)
  6. Coghlan, Giles
  7. Correia, Lucas Costa
  8. Durham, Schuyler
  9. Gondane, Pushkar Sudhir
  10. Hilal, Razane
  11. Kamenir, Scott
  12. Kilgore, Travis
  13. Lee, Tsz Yin (David)
  14. Pang, Leah (Bo)
  15. Patel, Vivek
  16. Raghavjee, Yashen
  17. Rodriguez, David
  18. Sharma, Puneet
  19. Sippel, Tyler
  20. Taskey, Robert
  21. Vardanyan, Hasmik
  22. Walker, David

Contributor(s)