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Technically Speaking, May/June 2016

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THE ROLE OF GOLD IN INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS

by David Varadi & David Wismer & Jerry C. Wagner & Jason Teed & Liangbo Yu

Editor’s note: this is provided as an example of the practical role intermarket analysis can have in a portfolio. It was originally published at FlexiblePlan.com and is reprinted here with...

STOCKTWITS BASED S-FACTOR RETURN CHARTS

by Joe Gits, CFA

Editor’s note: This was originally published at Social Market Analytics and is reprinted here with permission. Social Market Analytics (SMA) aggregates the intentions of investors as expressed on...

IN MEMORIAM: IAN WOODWARD

Ian Reginald Woodward, 84, of Palos Verdes Estates, California (and Austin, TX), passed away peacefully in his sleep at home on May 29th, 2016. He was born on September 6th, 1931 to Reginald and...

A STUNNING NEW FINDING: RETURN SEASONALITIES ARE EVERYWHERE

by Wes Gray, Ph.D.

Editor’s note: this was originally published at Alpha Architect and is reprinted with permission. We’ve discussed return seasonalities in the past, especially as they pertain to our approach...

NOT ON MY WATCH – KEEPING A GREAT DEPRESSION AT BAY

by Linda Ferentchak

Editor’s note: this was originally prepared by Financial Communications Associates and was published in The Thoughtful Investor newsletter, a client and prospect newsletter for investment...

INTERVIEW WITH ALAN NEYBURGER, CMT

by Amber Hestla-Barnhart

How would you describe your job? I help clients make better decisions to fuel their retirement goals. What led you to look at the particular markets you specialize in? When I was in my early twenties...

CHART OF THE MONTH

No comment is needed for this chart which was prepared by Mark Ungewitter, a private investor who was formerly an Investment Officer at Charter Trust Company in Concord, New Hampshire and Director of...

THE ROLE OF GOLD IN INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS

THE ROLE OF GOLD IN INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS

Editor’s note: this is provided as an example of the practical role intermarket analysis can have in a portfolio. It was originally published at FlexiblePlan.com and is reprinted here with permission. We examine some of the history and ongoing debate over owning gold from the context of an investor. Quantitative analysis of gold in different economic and market regimes demonstrates that gold has been valuable for investors as both an alternative source of return and also as a hedge. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the study finds that over the period from 1973 to 2015, the efficient allocations to gold for a typical balanced investor ranged from 5% to 45% depending on the desired risk preference. Furthermore, the optimal allocation was 25%, which produced higher risk-adjusted returns than any other portfolio. What role should gold play in modern portfolio diversification? New analysis supports optimal portfolio allocation to gold of 25% Even the most

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

David Wismer - 2022

David Wismer

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STOCKTWITS BASED S-FACTOR RETURN CHARTS

STOCKTWITS BASED S-FACTOR RETURN CHARTS

Editor’s note: This was originally published at Social Market Analytics and is reprinted here with permission. Social Market Analytics (SMA) aggregates the intentions of investors as expressed on the StockTwits platform.   SMA creates proprietary S-Factor metrics that quantitatively describe the current conversation relative to historical benchmarks.  This data provides strong predictors of future price movement.  This blog will focus on the deterministic nature of the StockTwits data set when aggregated into SMA S-Factors.    StockTwits is a community for active traders to share ideas enabling you to tap into the pulse of the market:  http://stocktwits.com/ The charts and tables below illustrate the subsequent open to close return of stocks that are being spoken about abnormally positively or abnormally negatively on StockTwits twenty minutes prior to market open.  Sharpe and Sortino ratios for the theoretical portfolios are included as well.  The SMA S-Score looks at the current conversation relative to historical benchmarks and creates effectively

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Joe Gits, CFA

Joe Gits, CFA

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IN MEMORIAM: IAN WOODWARD

IN MEMORIAM: IAN WOODWARD

Ian Reginald Woodward, 84, of Palos Verdes Estates, California (and Austin, TX), passed away peacefully in his sleep at home on May 29th, 2016. He was born on September 6th, 1931 to Reginald and Noreen Woodward in Calcutta, India, a four generation English family in India under the British Raj.  He attended boarding school in the shadows of the Himalayas at Goethals in Kerseong, where he skipped a grade his final year and still graduated 2nd in his class.  He moved to London soon after World War II for college at Faraday House where he graduated with honors in Engineering.  While studying for finals, he took a break and went for a walk, and heard music coming from the local hall.  There he met Patricia Breen and asked her to dance to “Some Enchanted Evening.” They were married in London a few years later on June 18, 1955 and celebrated 60

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

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A STUNNING NEW FINDING: RETURN SEASONALITIES ARE EVERYWHERE

A STUNNING NEW FINDING: RETURN SEASONALITIES ARE EVERYWHERE

Editor’s note: this was originally published at Alpha Architect and is reprinted with permission. We’ve discussed return seasonalities in the past, especially as they pertain to our approach to momentum. Turns out seasonality effects aren’t confined to momentum — they are literally everywhere and they are incredibly strong. This paper will blow your mind once you let the results settle in a bit. Source paper Slides Turns out stock returns are lumpy across the calendar. Stocks don’t earn “average” returns each month, they earn a lot of return in some months and little to no returns in other months…and this pattern is predictable, persistent, and powerful. Here is an image from the authors the explains the basic idea: Abstract: A strategy that selects stocks based on their historical same-calendar-month returns earns an average return of 13% per year. We document similar return seasonalities in anomalies, commodities, international stock market indices, and at the daily frequency. The seasonalities overwhelm unconditional differences in expected

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Wes Gray

Wes Gray, Ph.D.

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NOT ON MY WATCH – KEEPING A GREAT DEPRESSION AT BAY

NOT ON MY WATCH – KEEPING A GREAT DEPRESSION AT BAY

Editor’s note: this was originally prepared by Financial Communications Associates and was published in The Thoughtful Investor newsletter, a client and prospect newsletter for investment professionals who don’t believe buy and hold is the best way to manage a client’s portfolio. To learn more, visit their web site. Could interest rates in the U.S. go negative? If they do, the rationale may be the memory of the Great Depression. The Great Depression began 90 years ago in the United States as an ordinary recession in the summer of 1929. Today it is remembered primarily in old photographs and movies, and the pain has faded from public memory. The impact of the Great Depression still lingers, however, in the minds of economists, and particularly the minds of the economists who manage the Federal Reserve Bank system. If there is one thing they do not want, it is a rerun of the Great Depression

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Linda Ferentchak - 2022

Linda Ferentchak

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INTERVIEW WITH ALAN NEYBURGER, CMT

INTERVIEW WITH ALAN NEYBURGER, CMT

How would you describe your job? I help clients make better decisions to fuel their retirement goals. What led you to look at the particular markets you specialize in? When I was in my early twenties I was captivated by the work of William O’Neil so naturally I gravitated towards US equities. As I learned more about correlations and intermarket analysis, I became interested in commodities and fixed income as well. Do you look at any fundamental or economic inputs to develop your opinions? I consider myself a pure technician, so I am comfortable forming opinions without the aid of fundamentals. Oftentimes, I will cross-reference my viewpoints with those who specialize in fundamentals to gain perspective.  Using an approach that incorporates currencies, commodities, fixed income, and equities is paramount in today’s macro environment. I consider interest rates and central bank policy to be the starting point for any type of market analysis. What advice would you

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

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CHART OF THE MONTH

CHART OF THE MONTH

No comment is needed for this chart which was prepared by Mark Ungewitter, a private investor who was formerly an Investment Officer at Charter Trust Company in Concord, New Hampshire and Director of Portfolio Management at Investors Bank and Trust in Boston, Massachusetts. It is a simple but clear breadth analysis.

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

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New Educational Content This Month

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