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Technically Speaking, November 2019

As the leaves finally turn here in the New York area, the stock market has once again reached new highs, at least according to the big indices. But just when you stopped looking, the Russell clawed back to the top of its year-long range and the NYSE composite – the average Joe index – is at a two-year high. Could it be that the converse to “sell in May” is finally going to work? The answer is, of course, who knows?  The usual suspects still hold us hostage: China and the Fed. The latter seems to be on hold after the last rate hike. There are a few things of note, namely the resurgence of retail stocks and banks. The dollar may be breaking down, too. Copper may still be comatose, but look at platinum soar! This month in Technically Speaking, we’ve got part two of Bruno DiGiorgi’s History of Wall Street and a twist on an old, less-well-known indicator by David Steckler. New York and Minnesota Chapters weigh in with speaker reviews, and our member interview is with Ken Tower, CMT, a

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

What's Inside...

President’s Letter

CMT Association Asia Pacific: the APAC Auspicious Golden Cross! I hope this brief note finds you well and prospering in your markets.  Excuse my liberties with the term “APAC Golden Cross”...

The PopSteckler

by David Steckler

Many equity traders strive to identify stocks that are ready to break out and begin a sustained move higher in price.  The difficulty lies in identifying which stocks are setting up to break out...

New York Chapter Speaker Review

by Tom Bruni, CMT

On Tuesday, October 22nd, the New York Chapter hosted Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research. Sam’s presentation was entitled “The Rules Rule! – Rules-Based ETF...

The History of Wall Street

by Bruno DiGiorgi

This is the second installment of a rerun of periodic series chronicling the history of the street. The series originally ran in Technically Speaking beginning in September 2000. Last month, I noted...

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Review

by Mahesh Johari, CFA

The Minneapolis chapter hosted Dave Keller, CMT, Chief Market Strategist of StockCharts.com, as our October 2019 guest speaker.  Dave started his career at Bloomberg and later moved to Fidelity...

Interview with the Executive Director – Alvin Kressler

by Alvin Kressler

Please tell us what you do professionally. Currently I am the Executive Director and CEO for the CMT Association. How did you get there? I started my career on Wall Street on the buy-side in Chicago...

Northern Ohio Chapter Speaker Review

by Patrick McKenna

J.C. Parets, founder of All Star Charts, visited the Northern Ohio Chapter of the CMT association last month and gave a tremendous presentation full of charts, charisma, and good...

Member Interview – Ken Tower

by Ken Tower, CMT

Please tell us what you do professionally. I run a small 40-year-old research firm focused on price momentum covering all major asset classes. Our clients are hedge fund managers, mutual fund...

Charles H. Dow Award

by Chelsey Clevenger

The submission window is now open! The 2020 Dow Award, which highlights outstanding research in technical analysis, is currently accepting submissions! Since its first year in 1994, the Award has...

Members in the Media

by Walter Deemer

Gathering his insights from a five-decade career, Walter Deemer published a book titled, “When the Time Comes to Buy, You Won’t Want To.” The name derives from a 1970’s incident at Putnam...

Job Postings

by Marianna Tessello

Live Seminar Presenter/Instructor VantagePoint A.I. – Tampa, Florida If you’re a presenter capable of helping people gain knowledge about the financial markets including: Stocks, Options, Futures...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Rohit Mandhotra, CMT, CFTe, Financial Products at Bloomberg LP Michael Mobley,...

President’s Letter

President’s Letter

CMT Association Asia Pacific: the APAC Auspicious Golden Cross!

I hope this brief note finds you well and prospering in your markets.  Excuse my liberties with the term “APAC Golden Cross” – but hear me out!

 For the first time ever (in this current CMT exam administration) the number of APAC candidates has turned up and through the number of North American candidates – thus my reference to the “Golden Cross.”  This is a bullish indication for our members and candidates in APAC.  Additionally, it’s a huge positive for our organization at large. 

Will this be a trend?  We believe it will be a secular trend over the next several years.  It is a strategic area of focus for us.  It is why the CMT Association is investing in an India office.  It is why we’re planning Regional Summit conferences in the APAC region.

Keep your eyes on the activities and technicians in the

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The PopSteckler

The PopSteckler

Many equity traders strive to identify stocks that are ready to break out and begin a sustained move higher in price.  The difficulty lies in identifying which stocks are setting up to break out and determining when the breakout will occur.

One technique I like to use in identifying breakout setups is the Stochastic Pop.  This situation arises when the stochastic indicator goes above the 70 – 80 level.  Instead of reversing, however, the market tends to pop and momentum continues to rise. 

The Stochastic Pop is not a new technical indicator; Jake Bernstein wrote about this phenomenon years ago. To increase the odds of success, I have added a few refinements, requiring confirming signals from both the daily average directional index (ADX) and weekly stochastic signals. 

When I first showed this indicator to a colleague, he immediately named it the PopSteckler.

I identify a PopSteckler setup when the following set of conditions occur:

  1. Recent

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Contributor(s)

David Steckler

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New York Chapter Speaker Review

New York Chapter Speaker Review

On Tuesday, October 22nd, the New York Chapter hosted Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research. Sam’s presentation was entitled “The Rules Rule! – Rules-Based ETF Rotation Strategies.” He covered the seven rules of Wall Street and practical ways to implement these age-old adages in the markets.

Stovall introduced the presentation by speaking about the emotional flaws that hold him back as an investor. He noted that many investors are indecisive, impatient, and emotional. That is why he developed strategies that would help mitigate those biases and assist not only himself, but others, as well, in meeting investing goals.

Next, Sam got into what he calls “The Seven Rules of Wall Street.”

  1. Let your winners ride, but cut your losers short
  2. As goes January, so goes the year
  3. Sell in May, then go away
  4. No free lunch on Wall Street (oh yeah, who says?)
  5. Don’t get mad

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Tom Bruni, CMT

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The History of Wall Street

The History of Wall Street

This is the second installment of a rerun of periodic series chronicling the history of the street. The series originally ran in Technically Speaking beginning in September 2000.

Last month, I noted that the Dutch not only came up with the idea of selling part ownership in trading adventures in the form of stock, but that they were also responsible for making those shares of ownership salable, or fungible.  While the latter truly is a strange word, if not disgusting imagery, it’s just a financial term for something which can be readily exchanged or sold for something just like it, such as stocks or bonds.

The idea of selling your shares before your ship literally came in, allowed investors to cut their losses or take early profits.  Either way, the arrangement gave the investors some peace of mind when they couldn’t see the day to day events of the excursion itself.

Early Colonies

It

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

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Minnesota Chapter Speaker Review

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Review

The Minneapolis chapter hosted Dave Keller, CMT, Chief Market Strategist of StockCharts.com, as our October 2019 guest speaker.  Dave started his career at Bloomberg and later moved to Fidelity before he arrived at StockCharts.com.  David is also President and Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research LLC.  Dave’s presentation was titled “Five Modes of Mindful Investors.”

The five modes of mindful investors presented were:

  1. Recognize what one is doing
  2. Restrain one’s emotional state
  3. Respect that the markets are out of one’s control
  4. Review what is happening
  5. Reflect on longer-term progress

One: Mindful investors recognize what they are doing.  Mindful investors live in the present, learn from the past, and prepare for the future.  As an investor, being mindful means having an awareness of oneself.  Dave suggested a number of different ideas to help improve mindfulness, including meditation, yoga, and keeping a daily three-page journal.  Dave felt three pages of daily journaling was helpful because he found it often

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Mahesh Johari, CFA

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Interview with the Executive Director – Alvin Kressler

Interview with the Executive Director – Alvin Kressler

Please tell us what you do professionally.

Currently I am the Executive Director and CEO for the CMT Association.

How did you get there?

I started my career on Wall Street on the buy-side in Chicago at a long-only institutional equity manager, with a value orientation. I say value orientation, because when you look back at the process, it was really more of value process with a momentum overlay. The firm managed $10-12 billion and only held 40 full positions with several in flux at any time. I had the good fortune to have responsibility for the tech sector within a value fund (a lot to potentially unpack here, but we won’t go into that now).

After a few years there, I moved to New York and joined a sell-side tech sector boutique shop covering semiconductor stocks. Ultimately, I moved into managing research and research products and then had the opportunity to run

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Alvin Kressler

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Northern Ohio Chapter Speaker Review

Northern Ohio Chapter Speaker Review

J.C. Parets, founder of All Star Charts, visited the Northern Ohio Chapter of the CMT association last month and gave a tremendous presentation full of charts, charisma, and good old-fashioned technical analysis.  We were lucky enough to have Strategic Wealth Partners host the event, which enabled J.C. to deliver his timely, top-down analysis of global markets.  Overall, J.C. made a compelling case for being bullish on US equities and Europe, while pointing out commercial hedgers have their largest net-short position in history in the gold market.   Other surprises included a bearish view on bonds, a bullish perspective on the Aussie, and sector rotation away from tech. 

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

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Member Interview – Ken Tower

Member Interview – Ken Tower

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I run a small 40-year-old research firm focused on price momentum covering all major asset classes. Our clients are hedge fund managers, mutual fund managers, and corporate treasurers.

How did you get there?

I was lucky! Lucky that my junior year Portfolio Management & Securities Analysis class textbook had a chapter on technical analysis. Reading that chapter was like the proverbial light bulb turning on. Market action was all about demand and supply! Therefore, price movement reflected the ever-shifting balance of demand and supply in the market.

From there I went to William O’Neil’s chart books and joined the student investment fund. Then I’d go down to the TV room after lunch before my fraternity brothers came down to watch the Three Stooges. I’d watch the primitive cable news channel that had a ticker tape running across the bottom and updated market average prices every two minutes.

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Ken Tower, CMT

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Charles H. Dow Award

Charles H. Dow Award

The submission window is now open!

The 2020 Dow Award, which highlights outstanding research in technical analysis, is currently accepting submissions! Since its first year in 1994, the Award has received over 160 submissions, and recognized 21 papers for their excellence. Of the winning researchers, eight have gone on to publish books based on their Charles H. Dow Award paper topic. The award carries a prize of $5,000 and is presented at the CMT Annual Symposium, held in New York City each April.

The Dow Award competition is open to all practitioners and academics and will be judged based on each submitted paper’s ability to enhance understanding of market action and communicate applied concepts of technical analysis, as well as on the quality of the supporting research. Additional information on the Standards of Judgment is included in the Guidelines for Submissions.

Deadline: December 2, 2019

Style & Format Tips: The text must be a

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Chelsey Clevenger

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Members in the Media

Members in the Media

Gathering his insights from a five-decade career, Walter Deemer published a book titled, “When the Time Comes to Buy, You Won’t Want To.” The name derives from a 1970’s incident at Putnam Investments.

At that time, when he headed up Putnam’s Market Analysis Department, the market started a correction. Fortunately, he had anticipated it. However, some of the perma-bull money managers, who were generally skeptical of technical analysis, were annoyed that the market was going down as he had predicted. They started coming into my office almost immediately: “Is it time to buy yet?”

“No, not yet,” he replied.

This continued day after day as the market kept going down. After tiring of the routine, Deemer shrugged his shoulders and said “When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to.”

He learned that in order to make a point he had to hit money managers quickly and succinctly. That’s why this book consists

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Walter Deemer

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Job Postings

Job Postings

Live Seminar Presenter/Instructor
VantagePoint A.I. – Tampa, Florida

If you’re a presenter capable of helping people gain knowledge about the financial markets including: Stocks, Options, Futures & Commodities, ETFs and have a passion for helping traders change their life through a deeper understand of technical analysis, we should talk. This is a paid engagement/consulting position. 

www.VantagepointAI.com  has an opening for professional traders who enjoy teaching retail traders and investors their craft of technical analysis combined with our ground-breaking technology. This patented technology is known around the world for its incredible ability to turn global market influences and linkages into actionable data for traders to use daily to determine future trend direction.

By combining your expertise and this technology you will be asked to:

  • Create and present proven strategies and techniques during 3-day workshops in Tampa, FL held three times per year
  • Deliver information in a concise and clear manner
  • Help VantagePoint users adopt techniques to

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

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Membership News

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

  • Rohit Mandhotra, CMT, CFTe, Financial Products at Bloomberg LP
  • Michael Mobley, Co-Owner at Hidden Ridge Farm LLC
  • Adnan Younis, CFA, CMT, Chief Strategy Officer (CSO) at Data Whizz Academy
  • Michael Kahn, CMT, Technical Analyst at Lowry’s Research Corp.

If your membership is about to lapse, don’t forget to renew!  Login to www.cmtassociation.org and on the My Account page, select Join/Renew CMT Association.

Updating Your Profile

Have you moved recently or changed jobs? Now is the time to update your profile!  Updated profiles guarantee continued and accurate communication with the CMT Association and its members. To update your profile, login to the CMT website and under My CMT select My Account.  On the following page, under My Account select Edit My Information.

Your cooperation is greatly appreciated!

CMT Exam

Don’t forget to schedule your exam at Prometric for the December 2019 test administration. 

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

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New Educational Content This Month

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