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Technically Speaking, November 2020

Well, it is finally over! Or is it? What is “it” anyway? It could be the pandemic, as on November 9 we got some excellent news on the vaccine front. Or it could be the election, which looks like a blue win but with a lot of legal challenges on the docket. Or maybe it was the end of ridiculously low T-bond rates? No, I don’t include any Fed changes in that one. Twitter? Zoom? I’d go with all of the above, which was actually no answer. So it goes as Halloween morphs into Thanksgiving. One thing is for sure: everyone cannot wait until 2021. Keep your extra hour of sleep as the clocks were changed back. Fortunately, there is always something good happening in your Association. From a wildly successful India Summit to the upcoming Charles H. Dow Award competition to the next round of CMT exams, the CMT never sleeps. Our CMT Program enrollment numbers, including the cohort of candidates that had to postpone their exam in June, are up dramatically. In this month’s edition of Technically Speaking, we have some good stuff,

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

What's Inside...

President’s Letter

Election Polling and Technical Analysis – Predict or Listen? We have now come through our second U.S. election where the professional pollsters were terribly wrong in both direction and magnitude....

Last Call for the Charles H. Dow Award 2021

by Christopher Diodato, CMT, CFA | 2019 Charles H. Dow Award Winner

Deadline for entry – December 2, 2020 In 1994 the CMT Association established the Charles H. Dow award to highlight outstanding research in technical analysis. The Award has received over 160...

CMT Program Grows Numbers In 2020, Looks Forward

by Marianna Tessello

Registration for the December CMT exam administration has drawn to a close. After postponing the June 2020 test administration due to the global pandemic, we have planned a hybrid testing setup for...

2020 NAAIM Founders Award Winning Paper: Actively Using Passive Sectors to Generate Alpha Using the VIX

by Michael Gayed, CFA

I’m extremely pleased that the latest paper I co-authored alongside my friends David Dierking and Matthew Bowler, “Actively Using Passive Sectors to Generate Alpha Using the VIX,” was declared...

Reuters Events’ Investment Summit

by Emily E.A. Meyer

The CMT Association is honored to serve as an educational sponsor of the Reuters Events’ Investment Summit held virtually on December 3-4, 2020. After months of economic uncertainty and volatility,...

Minneapolis Chapter Meeting Review

by Jamie Keelin, MBA, CMT

Featured speaker Lindsey Bell presented “Investing in 2021 – now what?” to the Minneapolis chapter on Oct 20th via webcast. Lindsey is the Chief Investment Strategist at Ally Invest. Ally...

Member Interview With Ian McMillan, CMT

by Ian McMillan, CMT

Please tell us what you do professionally. I am an analyst/co-portfolio manager at an RIA/wealth management firm in Wisconsin. How did you get there? An acquaintance/friend of the Director of...

India Summit Experience Informs 2021 Symposium Planning

by Joel Pannikot

Many industries have been crippled by quarantine lockdowns. As financial market professionals, we are fortunate that our daily work can largely be performed online. Global indices saw a dramatic...

CMT Photo Archive

by Michael Kahn, CMT

This is the second installment in an occasional series revisiting the Association in pictures. With shelter-in-place orders reemerging throughout Europe & South Asia and our transition to...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following member on his new position: Manav Chopra, CMT, Vice President at Kotak Securities- Institutional Equities Once again,...

New Educational Content This Month

The CMT Association video archives now contain all of the recorded sessions from the 2020 India Virtual Summit, held in October. More webcast recordings will be added in the coming month.

President’s Letter

President’s Letter

Election Polling and Technical Analysis – Predict or Listen?

We have now come through our second U.S. election where the professional pollsters were terribly wrong in both direction and magnitude. There wasn’t a “sweep,” and the predicted “blue wave” was more like a “light blue trickle.” How could they be so wrong? How could they be so confident and fail?

I believe the short answer to this quandary is that life is unpredictable. There are probabilities and seldom 100% certainties despite our best efforts to divine the future. There are some outcomes that just don’t line up with the “mean” expectation or the averages. This is why we play the games, have the competitions, and conduct the elections – to see who really does win or get elected when considering the myriad of variables that can affect the outcomes.

How does this polling analog connect to technical analysis? Well, like the pollsters getting

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

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Last Call for the Charles H. Dow Award 2021

Last Call for the Charles H. Dow Award 2021

Deadline for entry – December 2, 2020

In 1994 the CMT Association established the Charles H. Dow award to highlight outstanding research in technical analysis. The Award has received over 160 submissions, and recognized 23 papers for their excellence. Of the more than two dozen authors/coauthors who have won, eight have gone on to publish books based on their submissions. Winners have presented at the CMT Association’s Annual Symposium, local chapter meetings, and participated in CMT Association podcasts and/or educational web-series. The Award carries a prize of $5,000 and is presented at the CMT Association’s Annual Symposium held in New York City each April. This month, Chris Diodato, winner of the 2019 Dow Award, shares his experience:

My paper, Making the Most of Panic, was the 2019 winner of the Charles H. Dow Award.  Simply put, winning the award was life-changing for me.  Like most technicians, I was largely self-taught and struggled,

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Christopher Diodato, CMT, CFA | 2019 Charles H. Dow Award Winner

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CMT Program Grows Numbers In 2020, Looks Forward

CMT Program Grows Numbers In 2020, Looks Forward

Registration for the December CMT exam administration has drawn to a close. After postponing the June 2020 test administration due to the global pandemic, we have planned a hybrid testing setup for December, which includes offering CMT candidates the option to take the test remotely in their own workspace through Prometric’s Remote Proctor application or through Prometric in-person test center.

We are excited to announce that this new hybrid administration model will remain available for 2021 and beyond, and we are actively marketing to professionals who will enjoy increased access to the CMT Program as part of this new test delivery model.

The December 2020 test administration will see the largest-ever cohort of CMT Level I candidates sit for the exam around the globe. Those of us whose careers are better-established can help out this new cohort by connecting with them over LinkedIn and Twitter, building relationships, and eventually offering to serve

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

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2020 NAAIM Founders Award Winning Paper: Actively Using Passive Sectors to Generate Alpha Using the VIX

2020 NAAIM Founders Award Winning Paper: Actively Using Passive Sectors to Generate Alpha Using the VIX

I’m extremely pleased that the latest paper I co-authored alongside my friends David Dierking and Matthew Bowler, “Actively Using Passive Sectors to Generate Alpha Using the VIX,” was declared the winner of the NAAIM 2020 Founders Award for Advances in Active Investment Management and a Finalist for the 2020 Dow Award. It topped nearly 30 other entries and became the 5th award-winning paper I’ve co-authored over the past several years.

This one is a little different than the prior four papers I’ve co-authored. The risk signals I follow and publish weekly for Lead-Lag Report subscribers (www.leadlagreport.com) look at intermarket behavior to determine whether you should be positioned risk-on or risk-off in response to market conditions. The VIX paper doesn’t designate between risk-on and risk-off, although it does propose three different trading strategies based on optimized VIX levels and publishes their results. Some of the sector rotation strategies we tested

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Gayed, CFA

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Reuters Events’ Investment Summit

Reuters Events’ Investment Summit

The CMT Association is honored to serve as an educational sponsor of the Reuters Events’ Investment Summit held virtually on December 3-4, 2020. After months of economic uncertainty and volatility, the investment community is at a crossroads. With global markets in decline and diverse economies heading towards recession as volatile conditions continue, the Investment Summit will unite financial institutions and investors from around the world to tackle the future of investment together. The event is free for the general public.

This virtual event will combine onstage inspiration from keynote speakers with intimate peer-to-peer networking. The two-day conference will cover four key themes:

  1. Market Drivers and Outlook: Learn how macroeconomics, geopolitics, China and market volatility have impacted investment outlook and how you can prepare for 2021 and beyond.
  2. Asset Management Strategies: Go beyond data and learn the methodologies employed by the most successful managers to enhance their understanding of the market and extract financial rewards. Watch

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Emily E.A. Meyer

Emily E.A. Meyer

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Minneapolis Chapter Meeting Review

Minneapolis Chapter Meeting Review

Featured speaker Lindsey Bell presented “Investing in 2021 – now what?” to the Minneapolis chapter on Oct 20th via webcast. Lindsey is the Chief Investment Strategist at Ally Invest. Ally Invest is the former TradeKing online broker, that now offers managed portfolios, self-directed trading, and automated investing.

Lindsey discussed current market conditions and laid out the risks and offsetting factors. The risk she sees are: 1) stimulus stalemate, 2) election risk, 3) slowing economic data, 4) COVID-19, and 5) vaccine timing. The offsetting factors helping to mitigate these risks are: 1) monetary stimulus 2) resilient consumers, 3) demographic trends, 4) improving 10-year yields, and 5) easing financial conditions.

Where do we go from here? The S&P 500 rebounded from bear market territory at the second fastest pace ever. Lindsey discussed the following points:

  • State of the markets: Valuations remain elevated as the S&P 500 forward P/E is trading at 23.6x vs historic average

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Jamie Keelin, MBA, CMT

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Member Interview With Ian McMillan, CMT

Member Interview With Ian McMillan, CMT

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I am an analyst/co-portfolio manager at an RIA/wealth management firm in Wisconsin.

How did you get there?

An acquaintance/friend of the Director of Investments in the firm I would soon join got me interested in the CMT Association. We met at two different conferences – one being the annual CMT event in NYC) – and got to know each other. Later that year, they did ask me to join the firm.

Who was an early mentor in your career?

A former boss of mine, Ronald Rough, who is actually a CFA and not a CMT, that taught me about the importance of relative strength. This is one of my core techniques, to this day.

What book/author was most influential in helping you understand TA?

Stan Weinstein’s “How to Profit in Bull and Bear Markets”

What do you like to do when you are not looking at markets?

I am a big

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Ian McMillan, CMT

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India Summit Experience Informs 2021 Symposium Planning

India Summit Experience Informs 2021 Symposium Planning

Many industries have been crippled by quarantine lockdowns. As financial market professionals, we are fortunate that our daily work can largely be performed online. Global indices saw a dramatic crash in the first quarter of 2020, followed immediately by a surge in equities much sharper than most pundits expected. Veteran analysts and money managers remembered the shocks of 2008, 2001, and even 1987, and looked to history for important corollaries. Yet most young professionals learned firsthand why veterans respect the markets and never fight the tape. We know from the demand for education and programming in the technical analysis arena, individuals and even firms without strong risk management tools found this period punishing.

Against this backdrop, “Navigating the Unthinkable” became the theme for the 2020 India Virtual Summit of the CMT Association, held on the 10th and 11th of October. This theme had many layers. Speakers addressed unprecedented central bank intervention,

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Joel Pannikot

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CMT Photo Archive

CMT Photo Archive

This is the second installment in an occasional series revisiting the Association in pictures. With shelter-in-place orders reemerging throughout Europe & South Asia and our transition to online-only member programming, we’d like to offer a glimpse of in-person events as a reminder of what we aspire to in the future.

If you have any pictures from seminars, meetings or after work get-togethers please submit them (in digital form, if possible) and include the date, location, and people in the photo. Better yet, if you remember presentations or topics of conversation that relevant to the current markets, let us know. There’s nothing like revisiting market history as it relates to the current environment.

28th Annual Seminar (Marco Island, FL, 2004)

Pictured: Duke Jones, CMT, Martin Pring and John Bollinger, CMT, CFA

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

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Membership News

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following member on his new position:

Manav Chopra, CMT, Vice President at Kotak Securities- Institutional Equities

Once again, we are requesting that members update their personal information; major corporations are requesting CMT charter holder information for their employees and we cannot give the correct information if your company is not listed. Please make sure your profile information is completely filled out, including your place of employment and your mailing address.

CMT

The exams are less than a month away. If you haven’t scheduled your exam, be sure to do it right away.  Not only can you take the exam at a test center, but the CMT Association now offers online exams through Prometric’s Remote Proctoring.  For remote proctoring, at the Prometric website, under Option 2 select Schedule; if you have already scheduled for a test center but now prefer to take the exam

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

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New Educational Content This Month

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