Letter from the Editor
This issue of Technically Speaking presents information from some of the giants in the field of technical analysis.
On the cover, we feature an in depth study from Cynthia Kase on the feasibility of spread trading. Her conclusions are precise and implementable, and the statistical support she provides makes them reliable. This is an example of the type of work being done more often in our field, and her contribution raises the bar for testing ideas.
A summary of John Bollinger’s career is inspirational, and demonstrates that this is a field of change. We need to study the past, but constantly develop new tools based upon changing markets and changing technologies. John is at the cutting edge of implementing technical analysis techniques with fuzzy logic and other advanced ideas. It is well worth the time to take a look at bollingerbands.com or any one of the eight web sites he maintains.
Andrew Cardwell is a lesser known name in our field, but has shown one way to succeed – completely study a single indicator and learn everything about it. He is the acknowledged expert on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and was the first to identify Range Rules that help traders know whether a market is bullish or bearish. Andrew has developed other techniques with RSI that deserve your attention, and that have helped many other traders profit in volatile markets. His bearish call in stocks for the past year, based solely upon RSI, has been dead on, and is just one the several market forecasts he’s been able to gain from recently.
We also have an update on the Long Range Planning Conference that the MTA recently conducted. Our organization is growing rapidly, without losing sight of the fact that the most important thing is to focus on the members. We are well served by the leadership, and they have well thought out plans to increase the value of the CMT program and the MTA.
Sincerely,
Mike Carr, CMT
Editor
What's Inside...
Calendar Spreads vs. Price -- Is There A Relationship?
by Cynthia A. Kase, CMT, MFTAMany traders assume that calendar spreads show a relationship to prices. Are these assumptions correct? If so, how well do the spreads track prices, and is the relationship helpful? To find out, four...
Letter from the Executive Director
by Tom SilveriGreetings to all, September of this year got off to a very active start for the MTA staff with the Long Range Planning Committee (LRPC) meeting on September 13th. This meeting, Chaired by David...
The Long Range Planning Committee (LRPC) meeting; Our Road Map to Continued Success
by John Palicka, CFA, CMTOn September 13th, 2008, members of the Long Range Planning Committee (LRPC) and the MTA Board of Directors got together in Westchester, New York for a full day meeting to discuss several key...
A Case Study in Success: John Bollinger
by Ajay G. Jani, CMTOn July 16th, I had the opportunity to meet with John Bollinger, CMT, CFA. I spoke with him via telephone again on August 5th. How someone who suffered from severe stage fright became one of the...
Analytical Toolbox: Trade Psychology—Andrew Cardwell
by Clare White, CMT & Andrew CardwellThis article was originally published at Optionetics.com and is being reprinted here with permission. As a follow-up to last week’s article discussing Andrew Cardwell’s experience with the...
Many traders assume that calendar spreads show a relationship to prices. Are these assumptions correct? If so, how well do the spreads track prices, and is the relationship helpful? To find out, four spreads for the NYMEX light sweet crude oil and natural gas futures contracts were evaluated: First-to-second nearby contract months, second-to-third, first-to-sixth, and first-to-13th. The first-to-13th spread compares like calendar months, such as January to January, eliminating seasonal issues. These spreads were evaluated for crude oil futures prices from January 1986 and natural gas futures from April 1990 to February 2008. Two major categories relating to the spreads were calculated. These were an evaluation of the spreads versus price direction and price rate of change (bias), and an evaluation of the rate of change of the spreads versus price direction and bias. Evaluation of Spreads The spreads were evaluated on an absolute dollar basis as well as percent of price, where the
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Cynthia A. Kase, CMT, MFTA
Cynthia A. Kase, CMT, MFTA is the president of Kase and Company, Inc. CTA, founded in 1992. With a BS UMass and an ME Northeastern, both in chemical engineering, she worked in that field for 10 years before beginning her trading career at Chevron International. She traded...
Greetings to all, September of this year got off to a very active start for the MTA staff with the Long Range Planning Committee (LRPC) meeting on September 13th. This meeting, Chaired by David Keller, VicePresident of the MTA and Larry Berman, President was a full day discussion of where the MTA has come over the last few years and, more importantly, where it is going in the future. Twenty-three MTA members including Board members, several Chapter Chairs, Committee Chairs, etc. actively participated in the discussions. I am pleased toreport that many decisions regarding the MTA’s future were made at this meeting and all will create additional and better services for our members as we move forward. For a complete synopsis of the meeting, see the article on page 3 of this Newsletter. In addition to the above, we are in the final phases of registration for the upcoming Fall CMT examination. I
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Tom Silveri
Bio
On September 13th, 2008, members of the Long Range Planning Committee (LRPC) and the MTA Board of Directors got together in Westchester, New York for a full day meeting to discuss several key initiatives of the MTA today and for the future. The meeting was chaired by David Keller, MTA VP and head of the LRPC and Larry Berman, MTA President. The meeting started with a discussion of the “State of the MTA” led by Tom Silveri, Executive Director. The LRPC participants discussed, amongst other matters the current membership demographics, new members, new CMT’s, reduced renewal “turnover” statistics and the overall financial condition of the MTA. It was generally concluded that we have made some good progress in most strategic and process categories overall the last 1+ years. This background discussion was good for all participants as it allowed for a generally consistent grounding of the facts around discussions that had
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

John Palicka, CFA, CMT
John Palicka, CFA, CMT, teaches finance and technical
On July 16th, I had the opportunity to meet with John Bollinger, CMT, CFA. I spoke with him via telephone again on August 5th. How someone who suffered from severe stage fright became one of the most recognizable faces in the media representing technical analysis is just one piece of a fascinating story. Bollinger grew up in New York, and after high school he spent some time at the School of Visual Arts. He eventually moved to California to pursue a career as a cinematographer in the motion picture industry. He became interested in finance and began subscribing to newsletters and researching fundamentals to help drive his investments. Replicating the experience of many other traders, he failed at making money using fundamentals, and in response took up technical analysis. Bitten by the investment bug, Bollinger left cinematography and landed an apprentice position with trader Charles Speth, an event that he terms “key” to his career.
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Ajay G. Jani, CMT
Ajay G. Jani, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the Managing Partner and CIO of Single A Capital. He has been in the investment business as a technical analyst since 1989, and was previously the Managing Director of Gramercy, an asset management...
This article was originally published at Optionetics.com and is being reprinted here with permission. As a follow-up to last week’s article discussing Andrew Cardwell’s experience with the Relative Strength Index [RSI] and how he came to be a leading authority on this technical tool (see Analytical Toolbox: Speaking with Andrew Cardwell from 7/18/08, available at Optionetics. com), a natural next step is this week’s discussion on the psychology of trading. Mr. Cardwell has traded different futures markets for thirty years and has definitely developed some insights into the importance of trading with a plan and the challenges the markets present traders. His longevity in leveraged markets suggests he’s learned a thing or two along the way. Andrew Cardwell, President of Cardwell Financial Group, Inc., began his trading career in 1978 as a broker with McCormick Commodities. In 1981, Andrew left the brokerage business to devote his time to the study of technical
To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)

Clare White, CMT
Clare White, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the President of InVelocity, LLC where she provides educational content for technical and options analysis for the US equities and options markets for her client, Optionetics, Inc. She also provides...

Andrew Cardwell
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