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Technically Speaking, October 2019

Forget March. October came in like a lion as the news cycle and economic reports stomped on the bulls. Considering that September was rather tame, it was a big wake-up call for stock jocks. But September did have its moments. The U.S. dollar soared and the UUP bullish dollar ETF nearly hit all-time highs (set in 2008). Gold, which still holds a long-term breakout, faded all month, not surprisingly. Bitcoin barfed (my opinion embedded there). The long Treasury yield recovery failed while the curve inverted and un-inverted again. And crude oil gave up its gains and then some after the Saudi oil field attack. There are fun markets to trade everywhere! Lest we forget, after peaking in 2014, the number of UFO sightings dropped this year to date to a 19-year low. I don’t quite see the correlation to any market, and especially not cannabis. So, while we sip our pumpkin spice (barf again) and watch this October’s volatility, remember that the “good part” of the year is upon us. No, not the seasonal strength for stocks but the CMT Association’s rolling out of

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

What's Inside...

President’s Letter

by Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

I recently read a book called “Tribe” by Sebastian Junger and it got me thinking about similarities between tribal behaviors, the importance of shared meaning and the technical analysis...

The History of Wall Street

by Bruno DiGiorgi

This is the first installment of a rerun of periodic series chronicling the history of the street. The series originally ran in Technically Speaking beginning in September 2000. The story of Wall...

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Review

by Mahesh Johari, CFA

The Minneapolis CMT Association Chapter’s September meeting took place at Ralph Acampora, CMT’s farm, and it was a really great event.  Ralph’s barn records the entire history...

CMT Program Supports the Philosophy of Proactive Money Management

by Adam Koos, CFP, CMT

This article is reprinted with permission from Proactive Advisor magazine, dated May 22, 2019 After almost two decades in money management, completing the CMT (Chartered Market Technician) program...

Chicago Chapter Meeting Review

by Jim Erdmier, CMT

Professional trading legend Linda Bradford Raschke drew in a large crowd when she came to the CMT Association’s Chicago Chapter September 5 meeting. Despite the Bears-Packers game and the horrific...

The Spirit of Technical Analysis

by Michael Kahn, CMT

I have always been a proponent of the spirit of the analysis rather than the letter of the law. In other words, a trendline may be perfectly constructed using a classic definition but if it does not...

New York Chapter Speaker Review

by Tom Bruni, CMT

On Thursday, October 3rd the New York Chapter hosted Todd Sohn, CMT, Director of Technical Strategy at Strategas Research Partners. Todd’s presentation was entitled “Perception vs....

Members in the Media

by Marianna Tessello

George Schade, CMT, recently released a biography of former Forbes editor and financial writer Richard W. Schabacker. Published by Outskirts Press, The New Era of The Booming 1920s And Its...

Member Interview – Louise Yamada

by Louise Yamada, CMT

Please tell us what you do professionally. I am now a semi-retired technical analyst and advisor publishing a monthly 60-page piece for institutional and retail (broker and individuals) clients....

CMT Curriculum: Past, Present, and Future

by Stanley Dash, CMT

Newly approved charterholders and longstanding veterans often raise questions about the curriculum for the CMT Program.  Recent candidates are curious about the genesis of the compiled books...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Membership The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: David Keller, CMT, Chief Market Strategist at StockCharts.com, Inc. Mohanad Yakout, Managing...

President’s Letter

President’s Letter

I recently read a book called “Tribe” by Sebastian Junger and it got me thinking about similarities between tribal behaviors, the importance of shared meaning and the technical analysis community. Yes, I know that looks strange, but keep reading.

The book talks about our strong instinct to belong to small groups defined by clear purpose and understanding, i.e. tribes. This tribal connection has been largely lost in broad modern society, but it exists in pockets that thrive. According to the author, regaining it may be the key to our psychological survival. 

Here’s where I see the relevance to our profession:

  • We have meaning and importance in our shared understanding. For us it would be the discipline of technical analysis and market behavior. Think about how we circle the wagons when the doubters start hating on what we do. Think about keeping disciplined in up markets, but more importantly in down markets!
  • We value being

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

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The History of Wall Street

The History of Wall Street

This is the first installment of a rerun of periodic series chronicling the history of the street. The series originally ran in Technically Speaking beginning in September 2000.

The story of Wall Street is one of heroes, villains, presidents and pirates. It’s a tale of calculated risk, optimism, reward, as well as dumb luck, despair and punishment. It is as much a history of “Live Stock” as it is a history of “Common Stock!”

Those of you who may grow sleepy-eyed at the mention of equities, debt, and earnings-per-share figures may be surprised to learn that while these words may be the language of Wall Street, the real story is one of hope, fear, intrigue and, on occasion, even romance.

I invite you to walk with me down one of the most famous streets in the world, meet its many notable characters and hear their sometimes-unbelievable stories. Our discussion really begins in Europe,

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

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Minnesota Chapter Speaker Review

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Review

The Minneapolis CMT Association Chapter’s September meeting took place at Ralph Acampora, CMT’s farm, and it was a really great event.  Ralph’s barn records the entire history of the stock market in the United States, starting with the Cowles Index in 1871 and then the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in 1895.  We were inspired by the breadth and depth of market history on display as we walked around the barn.

The exterior south wall of the barn starts with 1871, and ends with the Roaring Twenties (DJIA – 1928). 

The exterior east wall of the barn begins with the Great Depression starting in 1929 and ends with the Dow’s first push over

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Mahesh Johari, CFA

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CMT Program Supports the Philosophy of Proactive Money Management

CMT Program Supports the Philosophy of Proactive Money Management

This article is reprinted with permission from Proactive Advisor magazine, dated May 22, 2019

After almost two decades in money management, completing the CMT (Chartered Market Technician) program was probably the most intense but rewarding experience I’ve ever put myself through.

I had already been implementing technical analysis in my financial advisory practice since midway through the 2007–2009 market crash. I had helped our clients through the fallout resulting from the dot-com bubble and World Trade Center attack, so I knew that proactive portfolio management was a better way to manage risk and our clients’ hard-earned savings. I just felt like I needed more, and I’ve always been someone who pushed myself to new heights in terms of knowledge and education.

Back in 2008, I sought out an introduction to a retired exchange trader who ran a technical analysis research firm, and he provided all of the original bits of knowledge to get

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Adam Koos, CFP, CMT

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Chicago Chapter Meeting Review

Chicago Chapter Meeting Review

Professional trading legend Linda Bradford Raschke drew in a large crowd when she came to the CMT Association’s Chicago Chapter September 5 meeting. Despite the Bears-Packers game and the horrific traffic that came with it, people were clearly eager to hear what Linda had to say.

In addition to our regular meetings, the Chicago chapter hosts a book club several times per year. With Linda’s new book “Trading Sardines” having been recently released, we thought it would be great to invite her so we could ask her a few more questions.

Linda was visibly relieved to not be sitting in traffic anymore. Throughout the meeting, she was extremely lively, telling story after story with enthusiasm and humor. She is truly a force of nature!

Co-chair Matt Nygaard started things off with a few questions of his own, and then we followed up with questions from the audience.

Linda offered her explanation for why she

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Jim Erdmier, CMT

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The Spirit of Technical Analysis

The Spirit of Technical Analysis

I have always been a proponent of the spirit of the analysis rather than the letter of the law. In other words, a trendline may be perfectly constructed using a classic definition but if it does not really describe what’s going on, is it really a valid technical feature? And what about breaking out from a pattern? Does it matter if the market blew through a level or paused there? I think it does.

The following is drawn from an abstract I cooked up for my CMT III research paper more than a decade ago, when completing a paper was still an alternative option to taking the Level III Exam. I am not even sure I submitted it anywhere, as I ended up completing the exam instead.

* * *

The age-old debate pits those who consider technical analysis a science against those who think it is an art. The resolution of this

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

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New York Chapter Speaker Review

New York Chapter Speaker Review

On Thursday, October 3rd the New York Chapter hosted Todd Sohn, CMT, Director of Technical Strategy at Strategas Research Partners. Todd’s presentation was entitled “Perception vs. Reality” and covered a market roadmap for Q4 2019, surprising facts about the current backdrop, an outlook for bonds and commodities, global trading opportunities in Europe and emerging markets, and stocks the sell-side hates.

His view was a great follow-up to Tony Dwyer, who joined us in late July to provide a macro perspective by performing technical analysis on fundamental data. Seeing a global perspective from a purely technical angle offered our members the ability to compare and contrast the fundamental and technical points of view on the market’s recent events.

Todd introduced his presentation by listing the plethora of things that market participants are worried about today: trade, China, inverted yield curves, Brexit, 2020 election, and more. With that as the backdrop, he then went

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Tom Bruni, CMT

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Members in the Media

Members in the Media

George Schade, CMT, recently released a biography of former Forbes editor and financial writer Richard W. Schabacker. Published by Outskirts Press, The New Era of The Booming 1920s And Its Aftermath: The Biography of Visionary Financial Writer Richard W. Schabacker thoroughly examines the stock market climate of a century ago, telling the story of Schabacker’s contributions to technical analysis and financial writing. 

“He articulated [that] … central technical postulates such as prices weigh all the factors that exert themselves to move security markets, and certain patterns, resulting when particular conditions prevail, that in the past forecasted definite trends should continue to forecast future trends,” said Schade in a statement. “He saw the logic of technical studies in the principle that stock prices move in trends that are more likely to continue than to reverse. Much of what he wrote about is part of today’s investment management practices.”

Schabacker, who served as Forbes’ financial

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

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Member Interview – Louise Yamada

Member Interview – Louise Yamada

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I am now a semi-retired technical analyst and advisor publishing a monthly 60-page piece for institutional and retail (broker and individuals) clients. Before that, I was Chief Technical analyst with Smith Barney.

How did you get there?

It was a convoluted route to get there. My Masters in Science is in early childhood education from Bank Street College of Education in NYC, which held me in good stead on Wall Street! I then taught nursery school at Horace Mann Nursery Years on 90th St in Manhattan for several years. 

I was a single parent with no income so I was selling items and sending the money to a broker. I watched the prices go up and come down again and asked how does one know when to sell?  He sent me some Technical Analysis newsletters. 

That sparked my interest so I went to the Finance Institute downtown

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Louise Yamada, CMT

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CMT Curriculum: Past, Present, and Future

CMT Curriculum: Past, Present, and Future

Newly approved charterholders and longstanding veterans often raise questions about the curriculum for the CMT Program.  Recent candidates are curious about the genesis of the compiled books they have used.  Veterans wonder why we no longer distribute a reading list of source texts as was done in the past.  In response, let me offer some history, reflection, and plans for the future.

In the past, essentially prior to 2016, the then-MTA supplied candidates with a list of books to be read and studied for each level of the exams.  Some of the books were meant to be read cover-to-cover, others were included for particularly relevant chapters.  Some books were on the list for just one level and other books were included on more than one list.  In the later part of this period, candidates received some guidance as to areas of emphasis in the readings.

This made it challenging for the Association

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Stanley Dash, CMT

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Membership News

Membership News

Membership

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

  • David Keller, CMT, Chief Market Strategist at StockCharts.com, Inc.
  • Mohanad Yakout, Managing Partner at Economic Alpha Foundation
  • Sam Levine, CFA, CMT, Adjunct Professor of Finance and Finance Career Coach at Wayne State University
  • Tyler Yell, CFA, CMT, Senior Treasury Analyst, Treasury & Investment Desk at Toyota North America
  • Sean Naismith, CMT, VP, Decision Services – Head of Decision Services CoE at TransUnion
  • Joe Farrell, CFA, CMT, Quantitative Technical Analyst at Industrial Alliance Securities

CMT Registration

Standard registration is open until October 21, 2019.  If you need assistance registering for the exam, please reach out to admin@cmtassociaiton.org, or call the office at 646-652-3000, and we will be happy to assist you. 

CMT

To the affiliate members who passed the June 2019 CMT Level III exam, don’t forget to apply for Member Status.  Do you need help with the process or finding sponsors?  Contact Chelsey Clevenger at

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

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New Educational Content This Month

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