public

Technically Speaking, September 2016

What's Inside...

IS DOW’S CONCEPT OF CONFIRMATION STILL RELEVANT?

by Carson Dahlberg, CMT

Editor’s note: This research was originally published at Optuma and is reprinted here with permission. Other research into traditional technical tools and more advanced techniques can be found at...

FIVE TOP CONCERNS FACED BY FINANCIAL ADVISORS IN 2016

by David Wismer

Editor’s note: This article was originally published by Proactive Advisor Magazine and is reprinted here with permission. Financial advisors greeted 2016 in a relatively upbeat mood—what are they...

STOCKS ARE BREAKING THE GLASS CEILING: 6 REASONS TO BE BULLISH

by Martin J. Pring

Editor’s note: This was originally published on August 11, 2016 at PringTurner.com and is reprinted with permission. At the beginning of 2000, I unsuccessfully submitted a bearish stock market...

THE OLYMPICS: IS THE THREAT OF A SLUMP LOOMING OVER THE BRAZILIAN STOCK MARKET?

by Dimitri Speck

You may be following the sporting events in Brazil as passionately as you follow market price development. Or perhaps you’re not a sports fan, and you’re only interested in the stock...

HOW TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS USEFUL

by Louis Llanes, CMT, CFA

Technical analysis is a great tool to help you develop ideas and be alerted to change in the markets. We all need to solve real world problems and make decisions in a world of uncertainty and...

A GRAIN OF SALT – OR IS IT OIL?

by Louis Llanes, CMT, CFA

Have you ever heard that oil and gold prices are related to the value of the U.S. Dollar?  One thing that is always pointed out in the news is that somehow there is a strong relationship between...

WHY BOND MARKET SECTORS CAN PERFORM VERY DIFFERENTLY

by Peter Mauthe

Editor’s note: This article was originally published by Proactive Advisor Magazine and is reprinted here with permission. In the investment business, we often speak about achieving diversification...

MTA CHARLOTTE CHAPTER COHOSTS MEETING WITH CFA SOCIETY NC AND CAIA

by Carson Dahlberg, CMT

From left to right, local society leadership: Mathew Verdouw, CMT, CFTe, Carson Dahlberg, CMT, Clint Sorenson, CMT, CFA and Millissa Allen, CAIA. Mathew and Carson (along with Derek Hernquist) are...

IS DOW’S CONCEPT OF CONFIRMATION STILL RELEVANT?

IS DOW’S CONCEPT OF CONFIRMATION STILL RELEVANT?

Editor’s note: This research was originally published at Optuma and is reprinted here with permission. Other research into traditional technical tools and more advanced techniques can be found at Optuma’s web site. ABSTRACT: Charles Dow is often regarded as the father of Western technical analysis, and the influence of his concepts can be seen in modified applications by today’s practitioners. One such concept, and the focus of this paper, is the technical concept of Confirmation, which has its roots in managing returns in a framework which considers risk. In this paper, Confirmation is modeled using modern technical analysis methods, to produce objective signals. When a modern adaptation of a Confirmed Uptrend (CU) model is applied, to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Transportation Average (TRAN), to time buying the DJIA, improved metrics of risk and returns over randomly buying DJIA are achieved at consistent intervals within the first year

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Carson Dahlberg, CMT

Carson Dahlberg, CMT

Back to top
FIVE TOP CONCERNS FACED BY FINANCIAL ADVISORS IN 2016

FIVE TOP CONCERNS FACED BY FINANCIAL ADVISORS IN 2016

Editor’s note: This article was originally published by Proactive Advisor Magazine and is reprinted here with permission. Financial advisors greeted 2016 in a relatively upbeat mood—what are they thinking about now? Though we still have several important months to go, 2016 has already been a remarkable year on several fronts: The worst post–WW II start ever for the U.S. equity markets, followed later by multiple new all-time market highs. Geopolitical unrest around the world; increasingly bold and tragic terror-related attacks in both industrialized and emerging-market countries; and, of course, “Brexit.” A regulatory environment that has seen significant developments and one that promises to hold further change. An unprecedented U.S. presidential election cycle, with undoubtedly many more unexpected twists and turns. Within this environment, financial advisors have shared their viewpoints directly with Proactive Advisor Magazine and have also responded to numerous surveys conducted by leading financial institutions and the financial media. What exactly is on advisors’ minds? Here is a

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

David Wismer

Back to top
STOCKS ARE BREAKING THE GLASS CEILING: 6 REASONS TO BE BULLISH

STOCKS ARE BREAKING THE GLASS CEILING: 6 REASONS TO BE BULLISH

Editor’s note: This was originally published on August 11, 2016 at PringTurner.com and is reprinted with permission. At the beginning of 2000, I unsuccessfully submitted a bearish stock market article, A Turn of the Tide, to a well-known US financial publisher. At the time, in the middle of a market mania, my contrarian warning was unwelcome. Ironically, it was later carried by a Polish financial magazine—not exactly the wide distribution channel I was hoping for! This incident is being brought up now because the S&P Composite, when adjusted for inflation, has made no real progress in the intervening 16-years. That said, it now looks as though bullish forces are conspiring to take prices through the 16-year inflation adjusted glass ceiling to significantly higher levels. Guiding the way higher is our composite stock market indicator the stock “Speedometer”. Before we review that evidence, it makes sense to back up a little in order

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Martin J. Pring

Back to top
THE OLYMPICS: IS THE THREAT OF A SLUMP LOOMING OVER THE BRAZILIAN STOCK MARKET?

THE OLYMPICS: IS THE THREAT OF A SLUMP LOOMING OVER THE BRAZILIAN STOCK MARKET?

You may be following the sporting events in Brazil as passionately as you follow market price development. Or perhaps you’re not a sports fan, and you’re only interested in the stock market? Either way, there is an exciting question about what effect big international sporting events have on share prices. The country that hosts the Olympic Games draws huge media attention, the domestic mood improves, and big investment projects are carried out. All of this can affect the stock market. The stock market in Brazil has increased in value The shares index in Brazil – where the summer Olympic Games were being held – have grown strongly in recent months. Is this a coincidence, or is it linked to the Olympics? To answer this question, let’s look at all of the big sporting events for which information is available. Do international sporting events influence the markets? Since the Olympics only take place once every four

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Dimitri Speck - Technical Analysis

Dimitri Speck

Back to top
HOW TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS USEFUL

HOW TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS USEFUL

Technical analysis is a great tool to help you develop ideas and be alerted to change in the markets. We all need to solve real world problems and make decisions in a world of uncertainty and doubt.  One tool that offers practical value for investing is technical analysis.  Technical analysis is a discipline that uses supply and demand to determine the likely direction of any asset that is freely traded such as stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and real estate.  I was recently asked how I use technical analysis in my business and as I woke up this morning with this question on my mind.  I quickly realized that it is a vast body of knowledge that offers many ways to help people. Here are a few ways I’ve used it in the past month: Timing the Sale of a Concentrated Position A client came into my office who is changing jobs.  He is a

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Louis Llanes, CMT, CFA

Back to top
A GRAIN OF SALT – OR IS IT OIL?

A GRAIN OF SALT – OR IS IT OIL?

Have you ever heard that oil and gold prices are related to the value of the U.S. Dollar?  One thing that is always pointed out in the news is that somehow there is a strong relationship between those markets.  It seems like these markets evoke an emotional response to a lot of people, so that’s why it’s in the news.  Obviously oil prices directly affect our pocket book because we pay for it at the gas pump.  Ironically we also protest when oil prices fall because we think the economy is slipping into a recession.  So it’s win-win for reporters to come up with stories about these markets to get our juices flowing. Big moves in the price of gold, oil, and the U.S. Dollar seem to mean different things to different people.   But somehow these markets are supposed to magically be related to each other.  Is this really true? If you

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Louis Llanes, CMT, CFA

Back to top
WHY BOND MARKET SECTORS CAN PERFORM VERY DIFFERENTLY

WHY BOND MARKET SECTORS CAN PERFORM VERY DIFFERENTLY

Editor’s note: This article was originally published by Proactive Advisor Magazine and is reprinted here with permission. In the investment business, we often speak about achieving diversification among asset classes such as stocks, bonds, cash, currencies, commodities, metals, and hard assets. Among individual investors, there is often a lack of understanding about how the component sectors within each asset class perform. Most investors are aware that there are many industry sectors that make up the various stock market averages. However, many investors are not aware of the various bond market sectors and how they perform. The total-return graph (Figure 1) illustrates longer-term price trends for four important bond market sectors (there are several others): U.S. government bonds, high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, and international bonds. When displayed together they provoke a number of observations. First, U.S. government bonds have performed the best in recent years. They also represent one of the most volatile of the four bond

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Peter Mauthe

Back to top
MTA CHARLOTTE CHAPTER COHOSTS MEETING WITH CFA SOCIETY NC AND CAIA

MTA CHARLOTTE CHAPTER COHOSTS MEETING WITH CFA SOCIETY NC AND CAIA

From left to right, local society leadership: Mathew Verdouw, CMT, CFTe, Carson Dahlberg, CMT, Clint Sorenson, CMT, CFA and Millissa Allen, CAIA. Mathew and Carson (along with Derek Hernquist) are the Charlotte MTA Chapter Chairs. Clint is the CFA Society NC President and Millissa is CAIA Managing Director of Business Development, Americas. Involved in the Financial Community Proudly sponsored by Optuma, the July 20 meeting of the Market Technicians Association Charlotte Chapter proved to be a highly successful event. The night was co-hosted with the CFA Society NC and CAIA, at the sophisticated Ritz-Carlton, in the heart of vibrant uptown Charlotte, NC. Our esteemed speaker was David Keller, CMT, Managing Director of Research for Fidelity Investments. Five Lessons from the Fidelity Chart Room – David Keller, CMT David began his talk by highlighting Fidelity’s long history of using technical analysis, giving the attendees a glimpse of the coveted Fidelity chart room. The chart room

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Carson Dahlberg, CMT

Carson Dahlberg, CMT

Back to top

New Educational Content This Month

Back to top