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Technically Speaking, September 2019

As we turn the page on another summer season, well, here in the Northern Hemisphere, traders return from the Hamptons, or wherever they park their yachts, and supposedly liquidity comes back with them. But this is no ordinary year. Between on-again, off-again trade talks with China, negative interest rates overseas and volatility during the usually quiet dog days of late August, who knows? The yield curve inverted again while long rates plummeted to super oversold levels. Gold scored a long-term breakout, and who gave the silver market a triple espresso? Yet through it all, the NYSE advance-decline line hit a new all-time high before Labor Day. It’s been relatively quiet on the Association front, as you would expect during the late summer. However, things are ramping back up. The first item to note is that we are now accepting submissions for the 2020 Charles H. Dow Award (details within).  Registration for the next CMT exam cycle remains open, and we are welcoming a new crop of freshly-minted CMT charterholders into the fold. This month, we’ve got an article by Stefanie Kammerman discussing dark

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

What's Inside...

President’s Letter

by Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Are you winning or losing the investment battle? I want to get inside your head a bit today.  My question to you – are you winning or losing the investment battle? When you look back at...

Quality Companies in an Uptrend - Combining Fundamental Factors with Quantitative/Technical Analysis

by Christopher Cain, CMT

Note: This article originally appeared on the author’s LinkedIn page. What happens when you combine high performing quantitative/technical strategies with fundamental factors that have historically...

Member Interview with Fred Meissner

by Fred Meissner, CMT

Please tell us what you do professionally. Currently, I publish The FRED Report, a technical analysis research report targeted at financial advisors from major brokerage firms. It is a unique market...

Technical Dissonance

by Stefanie Kammerman

Note: This article originally appeared on the author’s blog. So many traders these days rely on technical analysis, but what happens when the technical signals are incorrect?  Did you know...

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Review

by Mahesh Johari, CFA

The August meeting of the Minnesota Chapter featured speaker was Paul Allen Winghart, Founder & Chief Knowledge Officer at the economics firm Wing-o-Metrics LLC, and former interest rate...

Job Postings

Schaeffer’s Investment Research, Inc., an options research and recommendation firm based out of Blue Ash, Ohio, is seeking to expand its Research Department. The ideal candidate will be an...

Dow Award Now Open for Submissions

by Chelsey Clevenger

The 2020 Dow Award is now open and accepting submissions! The competition is open to all practitioners and academics. The submission will be judged based on its ability to enhance the understanding...

Members in the Media

by Marianna Tessello

Many of our members were featured in a range of news stories this month, including videos, print publication stories and podcasts. Below, enjoy our most-shared Members in the Media post. And remember...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Membership The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following member on her new position: Silvia Felicio, CIM, CMT, Associate Advisor at RBC Dominion Securities CMT Registration Standard...

President’s Letter

President’s Letter

Are you winning or losing the investment battle?

I want to get inside your head a bit today.  My question to you – are you winning or losing the investment battle?

When you look back at the last 8 to 12 months, are you winning or losing?  Markets are moving swiftly.  Extremes are among us!  How have you done?

That question will likely mean different things to different people – but the idea at its core, whether you are progressing or regressing in your investment role and your outcomes, is straightforward.

  • Have your macro calls captured the decline in rates and volatility in equities?
  • Have your arguments been adopted by the Investment Committee and implemented in the markets?
  • Have your allocation decisions benefited portfolios/clients or avoided drawdowns?
  • Have your long security selections made money?
  • Have your short security selections made money?
  • Have your positions sizes captured your conviction levels with your ideas?

To answer these questions – you’ll need three

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

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Quality Companies in an Uptrend - Combining Fundamental Factors with Quantitative/Technical Analysis

Quality Companies in an Uptrend - Combining Fundamental Factors with Quantitative/Technical Analysis

Note: This article originally appeared on the author’s LinkedIn page.

What happens when you combine high performing quantitative/technical strategies with fundamental factors that have historically produced strong risk-adjusted returns?

We believe that combining technical/quantitative analysis with fundamental analysis can offer an edge in the marketplace, in effect combining the best of both worlds. 

This article will discuss the combination of fundamental “quality” factor with both relative momentum and time-series momentum (trend following) technical factors. This “quantamental” approach is a rapidly growing research area in trading and finance.

The Strategy

The quantamental trading strategy is designed to simply buy high quality U.S. companies that are in uptrends.

It combines fundamental factors, in this case, quality, with technical/quantitative trading rules.  This combination results in strong performance over the past 15 years, handily outperforming both the broad market and other stand-alone quality factor funds.

The time-series momentum rule applies a trend following regime filter on the overall index (in this

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Christopher Cain, CMT

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Member Interview with Fred Meissner

Member Interview with Fred Meissner

Please tell us what you do professionally.

Currently, I publish The FRED Report, a technical analysis research report targeted at financial advisors from major brokerage firms. It is a unique market niche that stems from my career in the brokerage world as a technical research analyst. I focus on exchange-traded funds, as most research departments don’t allow extensive commentary on ETFs, although that is beginning to change. Many advisors know me, and many wanted my research to continue after I left Merrill Lynch in 2009.

How did you get there?

I am one of the few research analysts who successfully transitioned from being a financial advisor. I started my career at a small, non-traditional brokerage firm called Baraban Securities in California, while I was still in graduate school at UCLA in 1983. I became interested in market analysis and trading and worked with several people who became successful traders and money managers

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Fred Meissner, CMT

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Technical Dissonance

Technical Dissonance

Note: This article originally appeared on the author’s blog.

So many traders these days rely on technical analysis, but what happens when the technical signals are incorrect? 

Did you know that over 40% of all the trades being executed right now are being traded in the Dark Pool?

Over the years, institutions have been doing more and more trades in these alternative exchanges known as the Dark Pool. This volume is secretly being hidden away from the NYSE and the Nasdaq. These trades are not reported until after they are finished in their entirety. This could take quite a few hours but many times, this volume is not reported until the next day.

So how does this affect the technical aspects of the market?

How many of you trade off the VWAP? The VWAP otherwise known as the volume weighted average price is used by many traders to help move in and out of stocks

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Stefanie Kammerman

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Minnesota Chapter Speaker Review

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Review

The August meeting of the Minnesota Chapter featured speaker was Paul Allen Winghart, Founder & Chief Knowledge Officer at the economics firm Wing-o-Metrics LLC, and former interest rate strategist at RBC Dain Rauscher. There were 25 attendees.

Paul recounted an early memory of when he started on the bond trading desk. One of his uncles who day-traded options asked him, “What kind of trader are you?”  Paul wasn’t sure what he meant, but the uncle clarified “There’s only two kinds of traders: the young and the greedy.”

Paul spoke of occasionally faltering liquidity in various markets using the term “Liquittity”.  Liquidity is quitting, or “flickering” as he sees it.

One of Paul’s favorite indicators is the 30 yr. – 2 yr. Treasury yield curve.  Paul sees this as measuring the health of the economy in real time better than the 10 yr. – 3 mo. curve used by many.

Presently Paul sees the economy

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Mahesh Johari, CFA

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Job Postings

Job Postings

Schaeffer’s Investment Research, Inc., an options research and recommendation firm based out of Blue Ash, Ohio, is seeking to expand its Research Department.

The ideal candidate will be an inquisitive student of the markets with a strong grasp of how social media interweaves with today’s daily market moves. Adaptable, a quick study, and a true “team player,” this candidate will not only be able to craft winning trades for subscribers, but will work cooperatively with other departments to promote the Schaeffer’s trading philosophy via media quotes and appearances, social media presence, and industry show presentations.

Duties and Responsibilities:

  • Generate high-quality trade ideas to support the variety of services and strategies provided to Schaeffer’s subscribers.
  • Verify trades on track records each day for accuracy.
  • Provide quotes, data, and insight to various media contacts about the market in general, or specific stocks, indicators, or studies of interest.
  • Offer expertise/input regarding development of new quantitative trading screens and indicators.
  • Communicate

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

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Dow Award Now Open for Submissions

Dow Award Now Open for Submissions

The 2020 Dow Award is now open and accepting submissions! The competition is open to all practitioners and academics. The submission will be judged based on its ability to enhance the understanding of market action and the concepts of technical analysis, as well as on thorough research. The Award carries a prize of $5,000 and is presented at the CMT Annual Symposium, held in New York City each April.

The last day for submitting papers is December 2, 2019. Additional information on the Standards of Judgment are included within the Guidelines for Submissions. For more information on the Charles H. Dow Award, please contact DowAward@cmtassociation.org.

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Chelsey Clevenger

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Members in the Media

Members in the Media

Many of our members were featured in a range of news stories this month, including videos, print publication stories and podcasts. Below, enjoy our most-shared Members in the Media post. And remember to tag @CMTAssociation if you’re sharing your own clips on social media!

Ryan Detrick, CMT, Featured In CNBC, USA Today’s September Market Forecast

SEPTEMBER 4, 2019 — Ryan Detrick, CMT, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, was featured in a USA Today article on Tuesday playing up September’s reputation as a volatile month for markets, but advising that volatility wasn’t necessarily a bad omen considering historic returns over the course of the past decade. 

“[The] S&P 500 index has actually performed pretty well in September, turning in an average gain of 0.9%,” Detrick is quoted as saying. “August was a burst of volatility for most investors, and we expect that to continue in September.”

“History shows stocks have overcome the volatility,” he

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

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Membership News

Membership News

Membership

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following member on her new position:

Silvia Felicio, CIM, CMT, Associate Advisor at RBC Dominion Securities

CMT Registration

Standard registration is open until October 21, 2019.  If you need assistance registering for the exam, please reach out to admin@cmtassociaiton.org and we will be happy to assist you. 

 

CMT

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members who received their CMT Designation in August 2019.

  • Brandon Bischof
  • David Mucciardi
  • Robert Decker
  • Victor Perez Mouzo
  • Thomas DiFazio
  • Jared Self
  • Steven Downey
  • Michael Signorelli
  • Guillaume Girard
  • Qiang Wang
  • Mei Yi Leung

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

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New Educational Content This Month

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