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Technically Speaking, September 2020

There are many songs about the end of summer, most talking about getting back to work or school, essentially ending the lazy, carefree days. If that’s you, perhaps you forgot this is 2020! Up is down, Zoom is the word and Wednesday is Sunday (at Carvel). People cannot wait for fall, hoping that things will get better on the virus, economic and back-to-school fronts. However, after several months of really good stock market action, September gave also us that rude awakening that stocks can actually go down, and by a lot, in any given day. Even worse, crude oil, after sitting there for months, looks terrible again. And the greenback, after hitting a multi-year low, looks kind of “bottomy.” Is that it for gold? Never let it be said that the markets – all of them – are boring. Now that we are all supposed to be back at work, whether virtual or in person, it is time to get back to our plans. Of course, not the same old plans, but plans to move forward, nonetheless. As you will see, content here

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Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

What's Inside...

President’s Letter

by Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Thank You Mumbai Chapter; The Future is Bright! I want to thank the CMT Association India, Mumbai Chapter for including me in their August Virtual Chapter Meeting. I was very excited and humbled to...

Secure Your Summit Registration Today

by Marianna Tessello

Last year, the inaugural CMT India Summit brought together the legends of technical analysis with the brightest minds in the business. This year, we will explore how to “Navigate the Unthinkable”...

The CMT Program is Back on Track

by Stanley Dash, CMT

It would be an understatement to say that we have all been tested this year. The direct impact of the pandemic on the CMT Program was the postponement of the June 2020 exams. But now we are pleased...

Announcing the Charles H. Dow Award 2021

by Andrew Thrasher, CMT

In 1994 the CMT Association established the Charles H. Dow Award to highlight outstanding research in technical analysis. The Award has received over 160 submissions, and recognized 23 papers for...

Exploiting Commodities Seasonality with Options

by Rui Matos, CFA, CFP, FRM

Just as the global economy has cycles and economic changes that play an important role in commodity supply and demand, seasonal factors also impact prices. Seasonality involves fundamental reasons...

Washington DC/Baltimore Virtual Chapter Speaker Summary

by Ian McMillan, CMT

The Washington DC/Baltimore Chapter of the CMT Association held a virtual chapter meeting on July 7, 2020. The featured speaker was Frank Cappelleri, CMT, CFA, Executive Director, Instinet, who...

Identifying Support and Resistance Using Machine Learning Algorithms

by Alon Horesh

Editor’s note – You might read this method for establishing highs and lows to be used in resistance and support and say, just look at the chart. However, this article is about machine learning so...

Northern Ohio Virtual Chapter Speaker Summary

by Kevin C. Pietrzyk, CMT, CFTe

On August 25, the Northern Ohio Chapter of the CMT Association held a virtual meeting, “Understand the Anchored VWAP,” with guest speaker Brian Shannon, CMT (Founder and CEO of...

Member Interview with Vincent Randazzo, CMT

by Vincent M. Randazzo, CMT

Please tell us what you do professionally. I am a Senior Market Analyst at Lowry Research, which is known to many members as former CMT Association President Paul Desmond’s shop. How did you get...

Membership News

by Marie Penza

Members on the Move The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Brendan McCarty, CMT, Principal at Column E Management, LLC Guy Ortmann, CMT, Director...

New Educational Content This Month

In addition to several chapter meeting recordings, this month we’ve added webcasts from Ryan Detrick, CMT and Walter Deemer to the archives. Listen to the recent Atlanta chapter event “V-shaped market with U shaped Economy … What’s Next?” with Mark Newton, CMT, and browse other new topics.

President’s Letter

President’s Letter

Thank You Mumbai Chapter; The Future is Bright!

I want to thank the CMT Association India, Mumbai Chapter for including me in their August Virtual Chapter Meeting. I was very excited and humbled to join such a fine group of members, associates and friends to share ideas on markets, employment, and personal skills. It was a fabulous meeting with over 150 people educating, connecting, inspiring, and motivating each other.  Again – thank you to Joel Pannikot, Akshay Chinchalkar, Vishal Mehta, Abhishek Karande, and numerous other energetic volunteers and speakers for making it a productive meeting.

India is a very large part of the CMT Association’s future – and the future is bright!  I’m looking forward to the continued success in India and the growth of CMT charter holders. We are very blessed to have such an active and motivated group of volunteers there. I continue to challenge current charterholders to recruit and

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Scott Richter, CFA, CMT, CHP

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

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Secure Your Summit Registration Today

Secure Your Summit Registration Today

Last year, the inaugural CMT India Summit brought together the legends of technical analysis with the brightest minds in the business.

This year, we will explore how to “Navigate the Unthinkable” in a 2-day virtual event. This gives us the opportunity to invite legendary speakers who would otherwise have never visited India. It also lets us make Indian technical analysis talent visible to a global audience. The 2-day format is optimized to avoid screen fatigue, allowing you to maintain time for your personal commitments while attending the Summit presentations and panel discussions for only part of the day.

This event will be free for members and CMT candidates, but you must register to attend. Non-members are welcome at a nominal registration price. Secure your registration early, and evangelize your friends, as the non-member price increases on Sept. 20th.

We are proud to announce some of our confirmed speakers and look forward to introducing

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

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The CMT Program is Back on Track

The CMT Program is Back on Track

It would be an understatement to say that we have all been tested this year. The direct impact of the pandemic on the CMT Program was the postponement of the June 2020 exams. But now we are pleased to find ourselves just a few months from the December 2020 CMT exam window (December 1 – 15).

The most notable adjustment we made in response to circumstances is to allow for “remote proctoring.” This alternative testing mode is being offered in coordination with Prometric, the same company that administers our exams in their test centers around the world. Remote proctoring means that a candidate takes an exam using their own computer and in a venue of their choice. There are strict rules regarding computer hardware, physical space, and proper identification. You can find out more about this on the CMT Association website: Taking Your CMT Exam via Remote Proctoring. In the

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Stanley Dash, CMT

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Announcing the Charles H. Dow Award 2021

Announcing the Charles H. Dow Award 2021

In 1994 the CMT Association established the Charles H. Dow Award to highlight outstanding research in technical analysis. The Award has received over 160 submissions, and recognized 23 papers for their excellence. Of the more than two dozen authors/coauthors who have won, eight have gone on to publish books based on their submissions. Winners have presented at the CMT Association’s Annual Symposium, local chapter meetings, and participated in CMT Association podcasts and/or educational web-series. The Award carries a prize of $5,000 and is presented at the CMT Association’s Annual Symposium held in New York City each April.

The competition is open to all practitioners and academics. The submission will be judged based on its ability to enhance the understanding of market action, the concepts of technical analysis, and thorough research.

2021 Guidelines for Submissions

Andrew Thrasher, CMT, winner of the 2017 Dow Award, recounts his own experience with the Award below:

I have

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Andrew Thrasher

Andrew Thrasher, CMT

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Exploiting Commodities Seasonality with Options

Exploiting Commodities Seasonality with Options

Just as the global economy has cycles and economic changes that play an important role in commodity supply and demand, seasonal factors also impact prices. Seasonality involves fundamental reasons behind price movement in different markets.

In this paper, we will demonstrate how the yearly calendar can be used as a guide for some commodity prices as supply and demand change throughout the year, not just in grains, but also in the energy and metals markets.

This paper provides trade examples using seasonal charts as guidance for positioning when taking seasonal factors into consideration. Long-only, indexing, and other passive commodity investing strategies may not address seasonal factors, treating investing in commodities as if they were equities, even though they are very different. When considering strategies, seasonal trading can help or hinder a portfolio depending on whether one chooses to either actively manage seasonal trades or ignore the fact that seasonal factors exist altogether.

Exploring

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Rui Matos, CFA, CFP, FRM

Washington DC/Baltimore Virtual Chapter Speaker Summary

Washington DC/Baltimore Virtual Chapter Speaker Summary

The Washington DC/Baltimore Chapter of the CMT Association held a virtual chapter meeting on July 7, 2020. The featured speaker was Frank Cappelleri, CMT, CFA, Executive Director, Instinet, who shared his outlook for the 2nd half of 2020, reviewing where we had come from off the March lows, up until now.   

Frank gave a breakdown of each major sector, with important areas of price to keep monitor. He also covered the Advance-Decline lines, market breadth, and credit spreads. Further, Frank took on a virtual trip around the world to see how other countries fared during the rally, including Germany, China, and Brazil. Gold and precious metals are also catching Frank’s eye, and he took a deep dive into what could keep them going. 

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Ian McMillan, CMT

Identifying Support and Resistance Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Identifying Support and Resistance Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Editor’s note – You might read this method for establishing highs and lows to be used in resistance and support and say, just look at the chart. However, this article is about machine learning so it is critical to be able to mathematically describe what our eyes see as highs and lows in order to allow the program to find them for you.

Support and resistance zones in price movement have long been the basics for many traders as entry and exit points for executing orders. These zones are very visual in the aftermath but quite tricky to find while the price patterns are developing. This, plus the fact that a significant proportion of the support/resistance breakouts are false breakouts, makes it a challenge to trade consistently using these zones.

In this article, we will show how to find the support resistance zones and how to trade them efficiently using machine

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Alon Horesh

Northern Ohio Virtual Chapter Speaker Summary

Northern Ohio Virtual Chapter Speaker Summary

On August 25, the Northern Ohio Chapter of the CMT Association held a virtual meeting, “Understand the Anchored VWAP,” with guest speaker Brian Shannon, CMT (Founder and CEO of Alphatrend.net). He got us up to speed on how to use AVWAP, allowing us to understand price, volume, time and anchoring to measure true supply and demand from any point in time.

Brian strongly encouraged risk management, and knowing where risk levels are with stops at all times. Getting stopped out is no reason for discouragement; one should move on to the next trade. Among his most enthusiastic points during his presentation included: finding your own way, and there is no perfection in the markets.

Special thanks to our India colleagues that woke up in the middle of the night to attend our presentation. The Northern Ohio chapter looks forward to hosting our next event in a few months, so stay tuned.

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Member Interview with Vincent Randazzo, CMT

Member Interview with Vincent Randazzo, CMT

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I am a Senior Market Analyst at Lowry Research, which is known to many members as former CMT Association President Paul Desmond’s shop.

How did you get there?

Before graduating college there were two courses of action that allowed me to follow the path of studying the stock market. First, in my last two years of school, I was able to secure relevant internships – one at Salomon Smith Barney assisting the largest group at a local branch, and the other at a small investment consulting firm called Portfolio Evaluations, Inc. Second, starting in fall of my senior year, I networked with alumni who also graduated with an economics degree and worked in the financial services industry. Eventually, the combination of my passion for the markets and persistent networking paid off with my first full-time job at Morgan Stanley in equity research sales early in the

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Vincent M. Randazzo, CMT

Membership News

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

Brendan McCarty, CMT, Principal at Column E Management, LLC

Guy Ortmann, CMT, Director of Research/Senior Technical Analyst at R.F. Lafferty &Co. Inc.

William Lyman, CFA, Strategic & Financial Advisor and Shareholder at Skills Union, and Head of Finance & Corporate Development at Algorithmic Objective Corp.

CMT

Late registration for the CMT exams is open until November 13, 2020; the exams will take place December 1-15, 2020.

Now is a good time to starting thinking about the ID you will be bringing to the Prometric test centers for the December 2020 test administration.  If your passport or license needs to be renewed, today is the time to do it, as Prometric will not accept IDs that are not current and valid.

Acceptable forms of identification include: valid passport, driver’s license (with signature), employee ID card (with photograph) and state ID card.

To view this content you must be an active member of the CMT Association.
Not a member? Join the CMT Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

New Educational Content This Month

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